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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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I think I am going on a social media blackout to get away from the increasingly vapid bernie memes that infect my feed and to not have to witness the whining and denial when he loses.

And to address the mod above, the people in this thread have been incredibly civil. I do however agree that maybe political threads on OT might need to be at least put on hold if people can't discuss without resorting to name calling and other bad behavior.

I honestly think Bernie lost my primary vote tonight.

He has lost mine as well. What a poor showing from him.
 
I don't care what the context is, calling a former Senator and Secretary of State who just happens to be a woman unqualified to be president is not a good look. Like, I don't care if you were talking about SuperPACs and Iraq, it echoes some really sexist comments that people make about her.

It's also going too far as an attack on someone who is from what is ostensibly your own political party. I'm getting pretty fed up with Bernie Sanders.

I said this weeks ago and y'all threw shade at me for it, but I'm going to say it again: I am not expecting Bernie Sanders to lift a finger to unite the party when this is all said and done. I'll have an illicit affair with Ted Cruz if I'm wrong, at this point.

I'm sure he'll do just as much as he did to help Kloppenburg in Wisconsin. That is, he'll give his standard stump speech and add in a throwaway line about voting for her. Because he's All About Bernie.
 

Makai

Member
ROGER STONE: If Trump does not run the table on the rest of the primaries and the caucuses, we're looking at a very, very narrow path in which the kingmakers go all out to cheat, to steal, and to snatch this nomination from the candidate who is overwhelmingly selected by the voters, which is why I have urged Trump supporters: come to Cleveland. March on Cleveland. Join us in the Forest City. We're going to have protests, demonstrations. We will disclose the hotels and the room numbers of those delegates who are directly involved in the steal. If you're from Pennsylvania, we'll tell you who the culprits are. We urge you to visit their hotel and find them. You have a right to discuss this if you voted in the Pennsylvania primary, for example, and your votes are being disallowed.

:u
 
Bernie media (Other 98/Uncut etc) really pushing the fact that Clinton lost a ton of voters due to using Sandy Hook to try and hurt Sanders.
 
Fucking Wisconsin.

So disappointing.

What happened? I thought it was one of those light blue states.

Wisconsin is light blue overall (D+2) but Grothman represents a super red district.

Here's the basic guide to Wisconsin:

You have the parts that are deep blue, namely Milwaukee and Madison.

You have the parts that are deep red, namely the Milwaukee suburbs (in particular, the north and west suburbs).

The rest of the state is varying shades of purple, generally going from reddish to blueish as you head west.

This is, of course, somewhat of a simplification, but it gets the idea across. It's a light enough blue that turnout really makes a huge difference, but it has some really conservative parts as well.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Wisconsin is light blue overall (D+2) but Grothman represents a super red district.

Here's the basic guide to Wisconsin:

You have the parts that are deep blue, namely Milwaukee and Madison.

You have the parts that are deep red, namely the Milwaukee suburbs (in particular, the north and west suburbs).

The rest of the state is varying shades of purple, generally going from reddish to blueish as you head west.

This is, of course, somewhat of a simplification, but it gets the idea across. It's a light enough blue that turnout really makes a huge difference, but it has some really conservative parts as well.

We should do a podcast on this tbh
 

ivysaur12

Banned
ALSO, Ivy's Victory Fund! is going to be an actual thread. I really want to do something about informing people about downticket Democrats in a really easy way.
 

Holmes

Member
incidentally, i'd bet money on clinton winning the guam and VI caucuses by enough to mitigate most (if not all) of the delegate shift from this



in the name of the territories, i will punish you
Pretty sure she'll win Guam now after the whole South Carolina thing. There's not even a lot of caucus sites and there'll be what, a few hundred voters? That'll be a big thing they'll even talk about before making a decision.
 
Yeah, I can get HylianTom's frustration; the last week I went from, In the case of Sanders winning the nomination, voting for him in the GE to voting for Bloomberg if he jumped in the race over Sanders. Would still, in the case of either Cruz or Trump v Sanders only, vote for Sanders.

Sanders v Trump/Cruz/Any other GOPer, I vote Sanders, no question. I may be gritting my teeth as I do it, but nearly every argument I've made as to why the "Bernie or Bust" crowd should vote for Hillary also applies here. The stakes are too high.

Sanders v Bloomberg v GOP (or some other strong centrist third party candidate in place of Bloomberg), I vote tactically. Whichever non-GOP candidate has the best shot at 270 gets my vote.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Yeah, I can get HylianTom's frustration; the last week I went from, In the case of Sanders winning the nomination, voting for him in the GE to voting for Bloomberg if he jumped in the race over Sanders. Would still, in the case of either Cruz or Trump v Sanders only, vote for Sanders.
I am legitimately sad about feeling this way. It used to be where he'd come on TV and I'd cheer the things that he'd say.. but that tended to be more when he stuck to issues and didn't promote particularly nasty talking points against his opponent. Now we're going to see his more fervent fans running with this one.


Wow. That is absolutely remarkable.

Holy holy shit. That's one dogwhistle-y threat.
 
God I wish Hilary would just go in on Bernie once and for all, but she's usually comes off looking worse for it especially when Bernie continues to pretend he is running some peachy campaign. Obama has this great ability to destroy someone while not looking slimy in the process. He's a giant hypocrite at this point who isn't contributing a single thing besides taking people's money for nothing.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I'm good on the Senate and a few really key House seats, but there are soooo many that I'm just trying to education myself on the nuance of key districts before posting.

So basically, I will probably need a bit of help.

Pick a state and whatever districts you need and I'll do some reading.
 

Tubie

Member
Is it the time of night where we drink? I got a new addition to my pint glass collection today!

I refuse to use that phase with misspelled 'yes' so how about....

Climb the Hill!
no that's terrible...

Damn you.

58KX8Qh.png
 
We should do a podcast on this tbh

I'm always just flattered to hear someone actually likes one of my posts instead of just saying "why is he rambling on about some 19th century election no one cares about" or "this guy cares way too much about the minutiae of the Midwest" or whatever.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Will do. Will probably be Florida's mess.

Lord knows it wouldn't be the first time I dove into that mess. I did a bit of reporting on something in the panhandle a few years back and let me tell you; Florida Man is not only real, he's an understatement.
 
I've been holding off on those glasses, because I want that Joseph Altuzarra designed shirt. I might have to just order the glasses, though...
 
https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/4doju4/poll_hillary_clinton_plummets_in_crucial/

So they're comparing a poll taken from 4/2-4/3 to a poll by a completely different firm with different methods from 3/30-4/4 and saying that Clinton's support has "plummeted" in Pennsylvania. Am I crazy, or is that complete nonsense?
Plummets is a ridiculous thing to say when it's just two polls, and especially two polls by different pollsters taken in such similar time frames. Q has also been her worst pollster this cycle.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
I'm always just flattered to hear someone actually likes one of my posts instead of just saying "why is he rambling on about some 19th century election no one cares about" or "this guy cares way too much about the minutiae of the Midwest" or whatever.

No, this stuff is great! Demographics trends and the placement of people and why they are there and why they vote the way they do is one of my favorite things about spaceships and magic.
 
The guy running in my district for the House has the worst slogan:

An AmeriCAN Revolution is coming


: sigh :

His website is also a god damn mess.
 

Allard

Member
I don't care what the context is, calling a former Senator and Secretary of State who just happens to be a woman unqualified to be president is not a good look. Like, I don't care if you were talking about SuperPACs and Iraq, it echoes some really sexist comments that people make about her.

It's also going too far as an attack on someone who is from what is ostensibly your own political party. I'm getting pretty fed up with Bernie Sanders.

I'd go a step further, the use of term 'unqualified' is such a loaded term, but it underlies salient point of running for president of the united states, no matter who someone is, as long as they meet constitutional requirements to run for office (being over a certain age, not running for 3rd term of presidency, natural born citizen etc.) is as far as I am concerned "Qualified" to be president. You can say "more qualified" based on experience or choices in life, but no one who runs is unqualified. The whole nature of the US presidency is anyone who wants to can run for president and the voting public gets decide if you are qualified enough using electoral majority. This shuts a lot of people out but that doesn't mean they still can't be qualified. Even in the nastiest elements of the 2008, I was firm supporter of Obama, I felt he was far and a way better candidate then Hilary was in that race, especially when her campaign started getting nasty as well, but I never once thought she was unqualified, on the contrary I felt her qualification as far experience was concerned and choices she made her in life made her way more qualified then almost all the other candidates save for maybe Biden, but I didn't vote for the most qualified, I voted for the person I felt at the time met my interests and could lead the party and the country the best, and I would still take that vote.

To say she isn't qualified is not only laughable but underscores the very nature of what it means to run for president, anyone who sets there mind out to it can become a president, it is for the voters to decide who they think should lead them overall, but that candidate can come from anywhere in this country and from many different cultures and upbringings. Yes I believe even Trump meets this even if I think he would be one of the worst candidates out there.
 
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