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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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You want to drive as many Sanders supporters to Trump as possible? Because that's all this would accomplish. They already decry that the Democratic Party is using dirty tricks to undermine Bernie. Something like this would only confirm it in their eyes. Leave the party in fighting to the Republicans.

It's not going to drive all of them to vote for Trump.

It'll drive some, like my little brother, to vote 3rd party. Though that may be in the cards anyway. The second I told my group about Bernies weird little tantrum about a fictional slight, my brothers response was "Panama Papers!"

He's becoming a believer in this anti-establishment rhetoric.
 

johnsmith

remember me
Krugman called it 3 days ago

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/04/04/shadows-of-smears-past/

So now, in a last desperate attempt to beat the arithmetic, the Sanders campaign is turning the implicit character attack explicit, and doing so on the weakest possible ground. Clinton, who has said that coal is on its way out, is a tool of the fossil-fuel industry because some people who work in that industry gave her money? Wow.

Still, maybe it can work — although you need to remember that Sanders needs landslide victories in what’s left of the primary. The problem is that if it doesn’t work, Sanders will have spent a couple of months validating Republican attacks on the Democratic nominee (or, if he somehow pulls off an incredible upset, deeply alienating lots of progressives he’s going to need himself.)

But what an ugly way to end a campaign that was supposed to be positive and idealistic.
 

kess

Member
I was too young to vote in 2000, but in any event I actually wasn't very invested in the outcome at the time. I kind of bought into the myth that the two candidates weren't that much different and it came during a brief period of my life when I considered myself an independent, which was basically an intermediate phase between considering myself a Republican because I came from a Republican family to being a committed Democrat. I'm actually kind of glad I was just too young to vote because who knows what stupid thing I might have done with my ballot.

-dclJG.gif


It's hilarious that Michael Moore promulgated this line of thinking, then turned hard on Nader when Bush turned out to be the disaster people expected him to be.

I don't remember much from the 2000 election, but I do remember a segment on public radio where liberals surmised that Bush winning at the tail end of a boom economy would make it more likely that he would be voted out when the economy inevitably went into recession. I've heard the same line of thinking this year. 2004 was the real backbreaker, with the Schiavo controversy and Supreme Court nominations around the corner.
 

HylianTom

Banned
For the 2000 election, I was in my final semester of PoliSci classes. For my last methodology class, we were given an extra credit assignment: the professor handed-out electoral maps for us to color-in as predictions. For every correct state, we'd get an extra point added to our test totals for the semester.

I put little exclamation marks and asterisks around Florida, and I wish I had saved the paper. I got every other state correct, save for New Hampshire. It was the first Presidential loss I'd experienced as an adult, and I'll be bitter about it to my grave. Probably part of why I think so very lowly of the folks who promote "my-candidate-or-bust"/"there's no difference" lines of thinking; these are folks who, one would think, know better. You lay-out cold, logical arguments, point out how government works, and you get fluffy emotional cotton candy responses that might feel good and righteous but that fall short when it comes to actual governing. It tries my patience, to say the least.
 

hawk2025

Member
For the 2000 election, I was in my final semester of PoliSci classes. For my last methodology class, we were given an extra credit assignment: the professor handed-out electoral maps for us to color-in as predictions. For every correct state, we'd get an extra point added to our test totals for the semester.

I put little exclamation marks and asterisks around Florida, and I wish I had saved the paper. I got every other state correct, save for New Hampshire. It was the first Presidential loss I'd experienced as an adult, and I'll be bitter about it to my grave. Probably part of why I think so very lowly of the folks who promote "my-candidate-or-bust"/"there's no difference" lines of thinking; these are folks who, one would think, know better. You lay-out cold, logical arguments, point out how government works, and you get fluffy emotional cotton candy responses that might feel good and righteous but that fall short when it comes to actual governing. It tries my patience, to say the least.

But...



Moral redlines.
 
I was 17 during the 2000 election.

Didn't really follow politics, but hated Lieberman with a passion. The supreme court decision came down, my mom was devastated. I told her "Good, the last thing this country needs is a Vice President actively trying to censor videogames."

She whirled around with this intensely angry look on her face "You selfish little son of a bitch... do you want the elderly to go hungry? Do you want your fathers' VA benefits to disappear? Just because of your stupid little toys. One day you'll see what these people are capable of, and I hope you're ashamed you said that when you do."

Looking back... I was a selfish, entitled little shit. Had a great home, wealth, healthcare, the whole shebang. I didn't think of the ramifications, because to me, at that time, there were none.

Part of the reason I can't hate young Bernie supporters. I was worse. I let videogames decide who I supported as a teen.
 

Necrovex

Member
One of the worst things about serving in Peace Corps is the inability to buy clothing for my one and only Queen. It's been interesting to hear Europeans' opinions on Trump as I was on Easter vacation. People continue to be horrified of him.

I do wish I could be in the states arguing for Clinton; my friends back home are very Pro-Sanders (and some are heavy on the anti-Clinton train and post everything they read from /R/ Politics).

On a different note, any good political literature from the last few years that would be considered a must read? Read a lot over the past year, but I am always searching for new recommendations.
 

Maengun1

Member
I didn't like Lieberman then, and I like him less now. Gore botched 2000 pretty bad, the Lieberman pick was a big piece of the puzzle.

I was only 12 in 2000 and we had a mock election in my 6th grade homeroom (which Bush won) and I told the class my mom said we were moving to Canada if Gore wasn't elected (we didn't).
 
Also, this is actually the second time (at least) the Sanders campaign implied a lack of qualification. I think people forget since time flies.

This time though, no mention of uteri.

He really has awful senior staff and surrogates.
 
Also, this is actually the second time (at least) the Sanders campaign implied a lack of qualification. I think people forget since time flies.

This time though, no mention of uteri.

He really has awful senior staff and surrogates.

It's really kind of amazing given how good their fundraising is.

They step into mistake after mistake, attack randomly, don't win often, or by the margins necessary to make a dent, but still fund-raise better than any campaign I've ever seen. Turning both wins and losses into big money-making events.
 

Trancos

Member
So my social media is on fire because a thread on S4P about Hillary trying to steal Missouri delegates (again!). The funny thing is that the first poster just misunderstood the rules. He thought delegates should be allocated by county but the rules published in February were clear that delegates would be assigned by CD. Anyways my point is that is fascinating on how social media work, you just sometimes start things that you can't control.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I continue to think people are significantly overreacting. Bernie going negative in such a pathetic way helps Hillary. This brings down his favorables, particularly with Democrats in next round of closed primaries where she will put him away.

The worst thing that could happen for HilldawgGodQueenton is Bernie come into NY, run a positive campaign on the issues, and outdebate her on the facts while mobilizing his base around the state. He's not doing that. You should be happy.

Like the Republicans need Bernie Sanders quotes for the general. Let's be realistic. It's Hillary Clinton. They have a 30 year playbook.
 

HK-47

Oh, bitch bitch bitch.
Kev, do you think the Panama Papers are going to factor into the election if no one is implicated among the candidates and their advisors?
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
If no one is implicated, then odds are no. The story wasn't even really covered by the major US papers (I was surprised by this) until the Icelandic prime minister got in hot water.

I don't think most people realize that like 95% of the "protections" rich people get in there can be achieved just by incorporating in the state of Delaware. I think that's why we're slow to see Americans implicated.
 
Right now I'm arguing with a Sanders supporter who says that Clinton being a Goldwater girl still has relevance today and that Clinton would support segregation today.

I don't care if these anti-establishment Sanders people leave the party. I think in the long run it's a good thing. Let's not make the same mistake as Republicans & court these people to remain in the party.

Otherwise we end up with the Left equivalent of Cruz vs. Trump.

Y2Kev - It's not about winning or losing. It's because Sanders is bringing ugly campaigning to the party. It's because a fair amount of supporters are becoming dangerously unhinged.
 

PBY

Banned
Shockingly - without any real juicy political news in a while or primaries incoming - this qualified story is everywhere.
 

HK-47

Oh, bitch bitch bitch.
Shockingly - without any real juicy political news in a while or primaries incoming - this qualified story is everywhere.

No one in America cares about global financial corruption. We are too used to that.
 

PBY

Banned
No one in America cares about global financial corruption. We are too used to that.
is this about the panama papers? I work in the industry and a lot of the stuff i've read from the leak seems super tame/overbown tbh.
 

Trancos

Member
If no one is implicated, then odds are no. The story wasn't even really covered by the major US papers (I was surprised by this) until the Icelandic prime minister got in hot water.

I don't think most people realize that like 95% of the "protections" rich people get in there can be achieved just by incorporating in the state of Delaware. I think that's why we're slow to see Americans implicated.

From a strategic point of view I'm trying to understand what the goal is. As you said going negative before closed primaries does not seem to be a good idea. It alienates democrats, and independents don't vote. But surely they are trying to achieve something (I hope).

I think their assessment is that with the demographics of the following closed primaries they can't expect to win by winning the vote of die hard democrats so they will try to fire up their current base as much as possible to get the highest turn out possible from their prime voters. I think they expect that a highest enough turn out from their prime demographic and hopefully some complacency from Hillary supporters can help him overcome the odds or at least close the gap.

I'm not saying it's the best option but they don't have many valid strategic options to choose from. Of course this is all assuming that all this negativity is intentional.
 

HK-47

Oh, bitch bitch bitch.
From a strategic point of view I'm trying to understand what the goal is. As you said going negative before closed primaries does not seem to be a good idea. It alienates democrats, and independents don't vote. But surely they are trying to achieve something (I hope).

I think their assessment is that with the demographics of the following closed primaries they can't expect to win by winning the vote of die hard democrats so they will try to fire up their current base as much as possible to get the highest turn out possible from their prime voters. I think they expect that a highest enough turn out from their prime demographic and hopefully some complacency from Hillary supporters can help him overcome the odds or at least close the gap.

I'm not saying it's the best option but they don't have many valid strategic options to choose from. Of course this is all assuming that all this negativity is intentional.

Labeling her as corrupt and a shill is intended. But this, I think, was just Bernie getting baited.
 

kmag

Member
From a strategic point of view I'm trying to understand what the goal is. As you said going negative before closed primaries does not seem to be a good idea. It alienates democrats, and independents don't vote. But surely they are trying to achieve something (I hope).

I think their assessment is that with the demographics of the following closed primaries they can't expect to win by winning the vote of die hard democrats so they will try to fire up their current base as much as possible to get the highest turn out possible from their prime voters. I think they expect that a highest enough turn out from their prime demographic and hopefully some complacency from Hillary supporters can help him overcome the odds or at least close the gap.

I'm not saying it's the best option but they don't have many valid strategic options to choose from. Of course this is all assuming that all this negativity is intentional.

Sanders has a long history of being shall we say incredibly tetchy when questioned. He got pissed during a long campaign, and after a night where if you look past the headline 'massive' win he basically treaded water (actually by most pathways to nomination he fell further behind)
 
is this about the panama papers? I work in the industry and a lot of the stuff i've read from the leak seems super tame/overbown tbh.

Nobody in real life is actually talking about it. It's definitely overblown. Just the kind of thing people on the internet would jump on and claim its going to tear down the global order. Just like Ebola was going to destroy America. Rinse and repeat.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Just because you have a uterus or were First Lady or Secretary of State or a senator doesn't mean you are qualified to be president
 

BanGy.nz

Banned
Just because you have a uterus or were First Lady or Secretary of State or a senator doesn't mean you are qualified to be president
Hey it's Killer Mike! Can you please stop arguing with black lives matter activists on Twitter and work on RTJ3 instead.
 

User 406

Banned
If I'm unqualified why am I winning?

donald-trump-grow-up.jpg



Our local news talked about this tonight. (I get Cleveland news). And they were talking about security and stuff. Mentioned this, and how the city wanted assurances from the GOP that we wouldn't have to extend security that far. Or something.

Maybe the Q isn't a good venue for security. They could always try moving the convention to a beer hall! ;X


wait does that actually say guam? i have a word replacement extension that automatically replaces "south carolina" with it

It says Guam.

Kws.gif



Hey it's Killer Mike! Can you please stop arguing with black lives matter activists on Twitter and work on RTJ3 instead.

Oh man, my wife was reading that whole string from the BLM lady, Mike got dragged so damn hard.
 

Brinbe

Member
FUCK! I thought I could check out for a bit, wake up on the 19th and get a nice break from things... But clearly this is now a race to the bottom for the next few weeks. Bernie and his team clearly can't take the slightest bits of criticism/overreact when called out on their bullshit (and I guess they know they really need NY) so now they're gonna go scorched Earth.

Attack/disqualify/insult, hope she makes some mistakes and capitalize from there. That's their only chance. They're gonna go hard in the paint/throw some bows in that coming debate. Gon be ugly.

At the very least, this probably pushes her margins in NY/MD/PA/DE and hastens Sanders' competitive chances in this race. Sanders campaign gonna be lookin real flabby and sick come CA.
 
I think they expect that a highest enough turn out from their prime demographic and hopefully some complacency from Hillary supporters can help him overcome the odds or at least close the gap.

well, if that's part of their strategy, comments like this are literally the worst possible way to go about ensuring the bolded
 

Diablos

Member
Really not sure what Bernie will do if he actually goes to the convention. You can't trust the guy.

All I know is he's doing so much damage to the party. I do not think the long term implications of his behavior will be good.

Would you please just drop out of the race already?

Between this and Trump looking less likely, with Cruz or maybe even Kasich waiting to jump on the advantages of a contested convention, I'm quite worried about the fall. Democrats should be way out ahead of this thing, not putting up with Bernie's bullshit while he damages the party.

Every day that this goes on is an opportunity lost for Democrats to play on their strengths and attack the GOP
 

PBY

Banned
Really not sure what Bernie will do if he actually goes to the convention. You can't trust the guy.

All I know is he's doing so much damage to the party. I do not think the long term implications of his behavior will be good.

Would you please just drop out of the race already?

Between this and Trump looking less likely, with Cruz or maybe even Kasich waiting to jump on the advantages of a contested convention, I'm quite worried about the fall. Democrats should be way out ahead of this thing, not putting up with Bernie's bullshit while he damages the party.
FUCK

I do agree that the dems are fucking up a golden situation right now.
 
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