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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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E

eBay Huckster

Member
so I went ahead and made that spreadsheet where I pretend superdelegates go by popular vote

and apparently they wind up 3% more biased to sanders there than the actual pledged delegate count
 
D

Daniel B·

Banned
adam387 said:
The fact that some Bernie people are happy to just shit on the will of the voters and change results at the county level is gross.

There I said it.

Like my Berniebro said, there's no way in hell he could have still been supporting Bernie after this week. I got him trained good. After this interview, I'm going to drink until I can't see the delegate math anymore.

FUCK!
QUEEN!
WERK!
YAASSSS!
Click to expand...

That's all it took for your Berniebro to defect; Bernie delegates actually turning up, en masse, and voting for their candidate?

What about the actual shady shit that the Hillary camp is knee deep in, such as the bullshit claim, it seems every other day, that Bernie is sexist (try getting that one past the nurses of the NNU union, or the many thousands of women who passionately demonstrate their support for him, at his rallies), or both Clinton's not allowing voters to vote, without interference, at their polling stations?

Your candidate has lost the argument, with the American people, on virtually every issue, such as the death penalty, the $15 minimum wage, and marijuana legalization, and all that remains is manufactured BS, that, despite having the establishment rooting for her, Bernie's message is still getting through (nice appearance on The View, just the other day, featuring correct way to eat NY slice), and hopefully in New York, Bernie's birth place (in 1941) and home, in Brooklyn, before transferring to the University of Chicago (in 1960), will send her a clear message, that they want real change, and there's no way in hell, that Wall St.'s preferred candidate, is going to deliver us that change.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Daniel B·;200587200 said:
Your candidate has lost the argument
Click to expand...

our candidate currently holds a 14.3% popular-vote lead

also, grade school english classes are losing their ability to teach about punctuation because you keep using so many fucking unnecessary commas
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Daniel B·;200587200 said:
That's all it took for your Berniebro to defect; Bernie delegates actually turning up, en masse, and voting for their candidate?

What about the actual shady shit that the Hillary camp is knee deep in, such as the bullshit claim, it seems every other day, that Bernie is sexist (try getting that one past the nurses of the NNU union, or the many thousands of women who passionately demonstrate their support for him, at his rallies), or both Clinton's not allowing voters to vote, without interface, at their polling stations?

Your candidate has lost the argument, with the American people, on virtually every issue, such as the death penalty, the $15 minimum wage, and marijuana legalization, and all that remains is manufactured BS, that, despite having the establishment rooting for her, Bernie's message is still getting through (nice appearance on The View, just the other day, featuring correct way to eat NY slice), and hopefully in New York, Bernie's birth place (in 1941) and home, in Brooklyn, before transferring to the University of Chicago (in 1960), will send her a clear message, that they want real change, and there's no way in hell, that Wall St.'s preferred candidate, is going to deliver us that change.
Click to expand...

You really are a slightly more coherent Tesseract lite.
 
H

hawk2025

Member
Daniel B·;200587200 said:
That's all it took for your Berniebro to defect; Bernie delegates actually turning up, en masse, and voting for their candidate?

What about the actual shady shit that the Hillary camp is knee deep in, such as the bullshit claim, it seems every other day, that Bernie is sexist (try getting that one past the nurses of the NNU union, or the many thousands of women who passionately demonstrate their support for him, at his rallies), or both Clinton's not allowing voters to vote, without interface, at their polling stations?

Your candidate has lost the argument, with the American people, on virtually every issue, such as the death penalty, the $15 minimum wage, and marijuana legalization, and all that remains is manufactured BS, that, despite having the establishment rooting for her, Bernie's message is still getting through (nice appearance on The View, just the other day, featuring correct way to eat NY slice), and hopefully in New York, Bernie's birth place (in 1941) and home, in Brooklyn, before transferring to the University of Chicago (in 1960), will send her a clear message, that they want real change, and there's no way in hell, that Wall St.'s preferred candidate, is going to deliver us that change.
Click to expand...


So many commas, I love it.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
Daniel B·;200587200 said:
That's all it took for your Berniebro to defect; Bernie delegates actually turning up, en masse, and voting for their candidate?

What about the actual shady shit that the Hillary camp is knee deep in, such as the bullshit claim, it seems every other day, that Bernie is sexist (try getting that one past the nurses of the NNU union, or the many thousands of women who passionately demonstrate their support for him, at his rallies), or both Clinton's not allowing voters to vote, without interface, at their polling stations?

Your candidate has lost the argument, with the American people, on virtually every issue, such as the death penalty, the $15 minimum wage, and marijuana legalization, and all that remains is manufactured BS, that, despite having the establishment rooting for her, Bernie's message is still getting through (nice appearance on The View, just the other day, featuring correct way to eat NY slice), and hopefully in New York, Bernie's birth place (in 1941) and home, in Brooklyn, before transferring to the University of Chicago (in 1960), will send her a clear message, that they want real change, and there's no way in hell, that Wall St.'s preferred candidate, is going to deliver us that change.
Click to expand...

Not enough comma's in your sentence/paragraph
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Daniel B·;200587200 said:
That's all it took for your Berniebro to defect; Bernie delegates actually turning up, en masse, and voting for their candidate?

What about the actual shady shit that the Hillary camp is knee deep in, such as the bullshit claim, it seems every other day, that Bernie is sexist (try getting that one past the nurses of the NNU union, or the many thousands of women who passionately demonstrate their support for him, at his rallies), or both Clinton's not allowing voters to vote, without interface, at their polling stations?

Your candidate has lost the argument, with the American people, on virtually every issue, such as the death penalty, the $15 minimum wage, and marijuana legalization, and all that remains is manufactured BS, that, despite having the establishment rooting for her, Bernie's message is still getting through (nice appearance on The View, just the other day, featuring correct way to eat NY slice), and hopefully in New York, Bernie's birth place (in 1941) and home, in Brooklyn, before transferring to the University of Chicago (in 1960), will send her a clear message, that they want real change, and there's no way in hell, that Wall St.'s preferred candidate, is going to deliver us that change.
Click to expand...

Actually, my boyfriend jumped off the Bernie train a long time ago. He realized Bernie was wrong on quite a number of issues. He realized he had only a tangible grasp of his own freaking number one issue, and had no plan whatsoever to actually accomplish all the stuff he's been yelling about for months.

My Berniebro never actually voted for Bernie. He had his come to Jesus moment on March 15th. The day Hillary swept everything. But thanks for trying.
 
H

hawk2025

Member
Berns attended, the University of Chicago (in 1960), I bet we don't know yet, but, he, has been, totally, corrupted, by the Chicago School, of Economics.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Here's a spreadsheet of the Clinton '08 margins versus the Clinton '16 margins, compared to Obama '08 and Sanders '16. The states are listed based on swing (i.e. difference between the '08 margin and the '16 margin). The higher the state in the spreadsheet, the larger the swing towards Clinton, and the lower the state in the spreadsheet, the larger the swing against Clinton. The spreadsheet only contains the states (and territories) that have so far voted, and does not contain Michigan because it was uncontested by Obama in '08.

fFoI2BR.png
Click to expand...

Some thoughts:

- The swing towards Clinton in the South was massive, and that's understating it.
- The only two Southern states that swung away from Clinton were Oklahoma and, interestingly, Arkansas.
- Despite Clinton's weakness in caucuses, she overperformed her '08 numbers in nine of them, and underperformed in four of them. Utah is a special case because it was a primary in 2008.
- The only closed primary that Clinton underperformed her '08 numbers was Democrats Abroad. The next set of primaries to vote are all closed primaries, except for one.
- The only primaries that Sanders overperformed Obama's '08 numbers were in New England. He overperformed Obama by 14.1% in Massachusetts to 51.8% in his home state of Vermont. Two upcoming primaries are in New England.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Holmes said:
Here's a spreadsheet of the Clinton '08 margins versus the Clinton '16 margins, compared to Obama '08 and Sanders '16. The states are listed based on swing (i.e. difference between the '08 margin and the '16 margin). The higher the state in the spreadsheet, the larger the swing towards Clinton, and the lower the state in the spreadsheet, the larger the swing against Clinton. The spreadsheet only contains the states (and territories) that have so far voted, and does not contain Michigan because it was uncontested by Obama in '08.



Some thoughts:

- The swing towards Clinton in the South was massive, and that's understating it.
- The only two Southern states that swung away from Clinton were Oklahoma and, interestingly, Arkansas.
- Despite Clinton's weakness in caucuses, she overperformed her '08 numbers in nine of them, and underperformed in four of them. Utah is a special case because it was a primary in 2008.
- The only closed primary that Clinton underperformed her '08 numbers was Democrats Abroad.
- The only primaries that Sanders overperformed Obama's '08 numbers were in New England. He overperformed Obama by 14.1% in Massachusetts to 51.8% in his home state of Vermont.
Click to expand...

This is awesome. Well done brah. :)
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Daniel B·;200587200 said:
That's all it took for your Berniebro to defect; Bernie delegates actually turning up, en masse, and voting for their candidate?

What about the actual shady shit that the Hillary camp is knee deep in, such as the bullshit claim, it seems every other day, that Bernie is sexist (try getting that one past the nurses of the NNU union, or the many thousands of women who passionately demonstrate their support for him, at his rallies), or both Clinton's not allowing voters to vote, without interference, at their polling stations?

Your candidate has lost the argument, with the American people, on virtually every issue, such as the death penalty, the $15 minimum wage, and marijuana legalization, and all that remains is manufactured BS, that, despite having the establishment rooting for her, Bernie's message is still getting through (nice appearance on The View, just the other day, featuring correct way to eat NY slice), and hopefully in New York, Bernie's birth place (in 1941) and home, in Brooklyn, before transferring to the University of Chicago (in 1960), will send her a clear message, that they want real change, and there's no way in hell, that Wall St.'s preferred candidate, is going to deliver us that change.
Click to expand...

QZQ2xH.gif
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Holmes said:
Here's a spreadsheet of the Clinton '08 margins versus the Clinton '16 margins, compared to Obama '08 and Sanders '16. The states are listed based on swing (i.e. difference between the '08 margin and the '16 margin). The higher the state in the spreadsheet, the larger the swing towards Clinton, and the lower the state in the spreadsheet, the larger the swing against Clinton. The spreadsheet only contains the states (and territories) that have so far voted, and does not contain Michigan because it was uncontested by Obama in '08.



Some thoughts:

- The swing towards Clinton in the South was massive, and that's understating it.
- The only two Southern states that swung away from Clinton were Oklahoma and, interestingly, Arkansas.
- Despite Clinton's weakness in caucuses, she overperformed her '08 numbers in nine of them, and underperformed in four of them. Utah is a special case because it was a primary in 2008.
- The only closed primary that Clinton underperformed her '08 numbers was Democrats Abroad. The next set of primaries to vote are all closed primaries, except for one.
- The only primaries that Sanders overperformed Obama's '08 numbers were in New England. He overperformed Obama by 14.1% in Massachusetts to 51.8% in his home state of Vermont. Two upcoming primaries are in New England.
Click to expand...

you know u better tweet this to Dave, Nate Cohn, Harry and Sam.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Kentucky and West Virginia are very interesting. If we are to assume that they'll vote similarly to Oklahoma, which had a 34% swing away from Clinton this year, it'll be very close. Clinton won Kentucky in 2008 by about 35.5%, and she won West Virginia by about 41%. At the same time, they're both closed primaries (well, West Virginia is semi-closed - and that might help Clinton if her biggest haters vote in the Republican primary for Trump instead), and she's going to lose a lot of support in coal country, but will it be enough for a 35.5% or 41% swing?

At the same time, the swings against Clinton in New England are also interesting considering Connecticut and Rhode Island are coming up. She did win Rhode Island in 2008 by 18%, but at the same time lost Connecticut by 4%. What helps Clinton in Connecticut is that it's a closed primary, but Rhode Island is only semi-closed, so Independents will be able to vote. These two states might be close on the 26th. Or maybe not.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
NeoXChaos said:
you know u better tweet this to Dave, Nate Cohn, Harry and Sam.
Click to expand...

Seriously, that might not be a bad idea, that's above average analysis compared to the shit that passes off now-a-days.

Slayven said:
How does Sanders latest victory effect the math? It has to right? one more state off the board
Click to expand...

If the numbers hold, it literally did not change any math, except for the number he needs to win in future races.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Slayven said:
How does Sanders latest victory effect the math? It has to right? one more state off the board
Click to expand...

It means he needs like 0.05% more of the vote today than he did yesterday.

It doesn't change anything for Hillary, but makes it harder, theoretically, for him to catch up.

shinra-bansho said:
Corporate $hrillary can't buy New England with her Macca's.
Click to expand...

Are you Australian? My really good friend is, and she's the only person I know who calls it Macca's.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
I am all sorts of things. But yes, that's where I reside.

Also, Sandy Hook is going to be a thing in Conneticut wrt the Dem race. And people will say it's gross to politicise. But gun massacres are the outcomes of shit policies.
 
S

Slayven

Member
Man the 19th needs to get here so we can have a real primary, no offense Wyoming, I want the snark of OT and Polgaf, the spinning TYT , and the twitter meltdowns, and Wolf Blitzer trying to look like he cares when he has mentally checked out 5 hours before.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
shinra-bansho said:
I am all sorts of things. But yes, that's where I reside.

Also, Sandy Hook is going to be a thing in Conneticut wrt the Dem race. And people will say it's gross to politicise. But gun massacres are the outcomes of shit policies.
Click to expand...

I'd add to that, literal worship of the writers of the constitution. The deity status some people give them is disturbing. It was also 100s of years ago.
 
H

Holmes

Member
New York should be fun, but the race will be called when the polls close on both sides. The 26th should be a more fun night.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
ivysaur12 said:
Caucuses are ridiculous, but I also don't like proportional contests by CD either. Or any weird proportional rules that would allow Bernie not to win more delegates despite winning.
Click to expand...
I mean you can't issue partial delegates so any contest in a state with an even number that isn't WTA has the possibility of a delegate tie.

Edit unless it's like bonus delegate for the pop vote winner. But eh.
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
sc0la said:
I mean you can't issue partial delegates so any contest in a state with an even number that isn't WTA has the possibility of a delegate tie.

Edit unless it's like bonus delegate for the pop vote winner. But eh.
Click to expand...

And Wyoming just has so few delegates that make the margin for tie so much larger.
 
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