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[Maledict]

There can't be a third party candidacy. The filing deadlines are such that you won't even be able to compete in a third of states once the conventions happen.

At best Trump might be able to get onto the Constitution party ticket or something, But the way the rule shave been set up makes it impossible to run a third party candidacy if you haven't already prepared by the time of the convention.

What I'd expect is Kasich as the President and a nutbag right winger as VP if they were going down that road, similar to how Palin energised the far right in 2008. Of course its extremely doubtful because he's such an incredible loser through this primary process - it's much more likely the party would nominate someone who didn't participate at all, like Nicki Haley. That way they aren't tagged with the "being beaten by Trump" label, and the party can craft a message around them designed to appeal to the broader republican base.

 

[Diablos]

There can't be a third party candidacy. The filing deadlines are such that you won't even be able to compete in a third of states once the conventions happen.

At best Trump might be able to get onto the Constitution party ticket or something, But the way the rule shave been set up makes it impossible to run a third party candidacy if you haven't already prepared by the time of the convention.

What I'd expect is Kasich as the President and a nutbag right winger as VP if they were going down that road, similar to how Palin energised the far right in 2008. Of course its extremely doubtful because he's such an incredible loser through this primary process - it's much more likely the party would nominate someone who didn't participate at all, like Nicki Haley. That way they aren't tagged with the "being beaten by Trump" label, and the party can craft a message around them designed to appeal to the broader republican base.

I think it's more likely they nominate Kasich. He actually participated in the primary and has delegates...

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Really wanted a Hillary blowout win in NYC.

<5%

 

[sc0la]

If it were my candidate I'd be trying to get delegates anyway possible.

Idk politics is dirty. Sorry that grandma couldn't show up to work!!

(In reality it's trash caucuses are trash and delegates should be awarded purely proportionally and locked in to the popular vote count)

If everything was purely proportional wouldn't you have to count every single vote before you awarded delegates? Now in some cases you just have to count enough to determine which candidate mathematically has the district on lock? Or am I misunderstanding it?

Still trying to figure out this allocation business and I came across this which was helpful.
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/p/2016-democratic-delegate-allocation.html?m=1

It has a column for the incremental rounding threshold. So states with even delegates it's the win percentage required to break a delegate tie. They vary widely.

Still trying to figure out how at large va CD works since most states appear to have both?

 

[dramatis]

I'm watching this Chinese 3-person discussion table thing (can't read the title, so don't know what kind of show it is) and they're discussing the US primaries. Halfway through what I can conclude is that the moderator dude really likes House of Cards and that the guests actually seem to hold similar opinions to us.

Edit: Oh wow Chinese anti-Semitism in the comments lolwut

 

[Paskil]

Kasich is only favorable because he hasn't yet been vetted. Yes, he's been in politics for years, but he's at the same place as Bernie. Once millions are spent dragging his record and actions into the sunlight, there will be a significant drop in his favorability and head-to-head numbers.

Assuming he even makes it into the general.

 

[Makai]

Do these people have jobs?

Who says I dont?

I haven't had a drink in two days :-(

I'm getting so hammered this week. There's a Brooklyn politics think Monday. Hillary happy hour Tuesday, and the debate Thursday (which makai and B-dubs are coming too)

How do I get into the debate?

 

[Boney]

In case anyone is interested, Harry belafonte dropping truth bombs on the latest town hall

http://youtu.be/796fW3X5gYM

Also, people are still saying Bernie invited himself to the Vatican?

 

[Macho Madness]

Unexpected Fox News polls

 

[gcubed]

Unexpected Fox News polls

I'm prepared for a 15pt NY win and 8-10 in PA but I expect more for each

 

[Macho Madness]

Also TRUMP YOU BETTER HOLD OVER 50 IN NEW YORK

 

[gcubed]

Cruz is a big fat mess

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Unexpected Fox News polls

If Clinton can do a +20 win in new York NY any chance I would be so hard

 

[StopMakingSense]

Cruz is a big fat mess

He's gonna really be kicking himself about that "New York values remark" (not that it would actually make a difference)

 

[FiggyCal]

Broadway is the establishment?

Well yeah. Why do you think we have off broadway?

 

[StopMakingSense]

Huh, probably the biggest/craziest Bernie stan on my FB feed posted one of those delegate gifs, while celebrating the win in WY in the text of her post. Don't have the heart to engage.

 

[gcubed]

He's gonna really be kicking himself about that "New York values remark" (not that it would actually make a difference)

The northeast will not be kind to him.

 

[TyrantII]

I think it's more likely they nominate Kasich. He actually participated in the primary and has delegates...

The dude that has only won his home state and would require a post-facto rule change.

I hope they do, there would be riots and the base would punish the RNC in Nov.

 

[User 463088]

Unexpected Fox News polls

I'll take that all day.

 

[Macho Madness]

Crosstabs for Dem NY Poll:

Hillary wins white voters 51/38

Black voters 61/29.

 

[Bowdz]

Kasich is only favorable because he hasn't yet been vetted. Yes, he's been in politics for years, but he's at the same place as Bernie. Once millions are spent dragging his record and actions into the sunlight, there will be a significant drop in his favorability and head-to-head numbers.

Assuming he even makes it into the general.

Agreed. He is actually to the right of Mitt Romney on a lot of issues like the right go choose. It'll be close, but the Dems can and will drag him name through the mud.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Didn't one of the Republican candidates use a version of this in a debate this season? I can't think who exactly.

There was a time when this was true. Over a hundred years ago, but true.

 

[Farmboy]

I read this piece about how Trump might get to 1,237 on the first ballot. Badly written but theoretically sound. This was interesting, on how Trump and Cruz will probably work together to make sure rule 40b remains in place:

Any change in the rules must be ratified on the floor of the Convention where Trump and Cruz delegates will shut it down.

Trump doesn’t want a new face in the competition, someone who hasn’t gone through the rigorous debates. That face would be a clean slate and voters could project what they want on it. And Cruz wants to be the only Trump alternative, which is his only chance to win.

 

[Makai]

I read this piece about how Trump might get to 1,237 on the first ballot. Badly written but theoretically sound. This was interesting, on how Trump and Cruz will probably work together to make sure rule 40b remains in place:

Delegates aren't bound on rules votes. They were chosen by state GOP and could collude to change the rules against both Trump and Cruz.

 

[User 463088]

IN that Fox News poll, Hillary's support is a lot more firm than Bernie's. We've seen that in most polls as well. Kinda goes against that enthusiasm argument a bit.

Also, Bernie better hope he has a good debate. If he has a bad one, he's got to jet off to the Vatican to attend his meeting and he won't be able to go on the programs and spin it.

 

[Bowdz]

IN that Fox News poll, Hillary's support is a lot more firm than Bernie's. We've seen that in most polls as well. Kinda goes against that enthusiasm argument a bit.

Also, Bernie better hope he has a good debate. If he has a bad one, he's got to jet off to the Vatican to attend his meeting and he won't be able to go on the programs and spin it.

No, he can still phone in from the road. If he wants coverage, he'll get it. That said, the optics of jetting off to something thoroughly inconsequential will be off-putting.

 

[Trancos]

No, he can still phone in from the road. If he wants coverage, he'll get it. That said, the optics of jetting off to something thoroughly inconsequential will be off-putting.

From a strategic point of view it's a very odd decision. I guess he is trying to look presidential and also appeal to the catholics in NY but the timing will hurt him bad.

Edit: I might just add (as a catholic myself) that this pope is extremely popular among Catholics, and even more (crazy popular) in left leaning catholics. But he is not even meeting him. This is just trying too hard to have anything looking like an endorsement.

 

[User 463088]

No, he can still phone in from the road. If he wants coverage, he'll get it. That said, the optics of jetting off to something thoroughly inconsequential will be off-putting.

Someone on Kos mentioned that he's not even scheduled to speak at this thing. Not sure if that's accurate, but the entire thing is just absolutely stupid. Weaver acted like he had no idea this was going to happen until Bernie announced it. I wonder if his internals aren't great? I can't figure out how he thought this was going to be a good idea 3 days before the most important primary in the month. It's laughable. It's not McCain suspending his campaign bad, but it's damn stupid.

 

[Bowdz]

From a strategic point of view it's a very odd decision. I guess he is trying to look presidential and also appeal to the catholics in NY but the timing will hurt him bad.

Agreed.

Meanwhile, for better or for worse (I actually disagree with Clinton's stance on Israel), Clinton just hit Bernie on his criticism of Israel's response to Palestine. While he's out of the country, Clinton will be running up the margins with Jewish and minority voters in NY.

 

[User 463088]

Did anyone mention Benchmark's final NY expectations? I know they're not predictions....

Hillary 57
Bernie 43

 

[Bowdz]

Someone on Kos mentioned that he's not even scheduled to speak at this thing. Not sure if that's accurate, but the entire thing is just absolutely stupid. Weaver acted like he had no idea this was going to happen until Bernie announced it. I wonder if his internals aren't great? I can't figure out how he thought this was going to be a good idea 3 days before the most important primary in the month. It's laughable. It's not McCain suspending his campaign bad, but it's damn stupid.

Yeah, Mark Halperin had Weaver on WADR Friday and straight up told him it was a stupid idea and that he didn't think they'd go through with it because it was stupid.

Even if they had poor internals, you'd think Bernie would just shift and spend more time in CA, RI, OR, or even NM. It really is a terrible idea.

 

[Macho Madness]

Among Jewish voters in NY it's 59/35 Hillary.

Identity politics are not much of a thing I guess.

 

[NeoXChaos]

That Fox poll is interesting. She won OH by 14 and beat him with whites by 3 and were a larger share of the electorate than NY will be at 70%. She's beating him in that poll by 11 but its 16 pts?

 

[Trancos]

Someone on Kos mentioned that he's not even scheduled to speak at this thing. Not sure if that's accurate, but the entire thing is just absolutely stupid. Weaver acted like he had no idea this was going to happen until Bernie announced it. I wonder if his internals aren't great? I can't figure out how he thought this was going to be a good idea 3 days before the most important primary in the month. It's laughable. It's not McCain suspending his campaign bad, but it's damn stupid.

Here is the official program, he is listed under 'other participants' , he is not listed as main speaker in any of the workshops but maybe he is part of one of the activities.

http://www.pass.va/content/dam/scienzesociali/booklet/centesimus_annus.pdf

 

[User 463088]

Among Jewish voters in NY it's 59/35 Hillary.

Identity politics are not much of a thing I guess.

Did they poll the people who grew up on the same street as Bernie did 70 years ago, because he TOTALLY has deep roots to Brooklyn.

Here is the official program, he is listed under 'other participants' , he is not listed as main speaker in any of the workshop but maybe he is part of one of the activities.

http://www.pass.va/content/dam/scienzesociali/booklet/centesimus_annus.pdf

He doesn't even warrant a picture. Mess. What a stupid, stupid thing to waste time on. Ugh. His campaign is just trash.

 

[Effect]

From a strategic point of view it's a very odd decision. I guess he is trying to look presidential and also appeal to the catholics in NY but the timing will hurt him bad.

Edit: I might just add (as a catholic myself) that this pope is extremely popular among Catholics, and even more (crazy popular) in left leaning catholics. But he is not even meeting him. This is just trying too hard to have anything looking like an endorsement.

There is also the issue that is getting out that he asked for an invitation. He wasn't invited out of the blue like he originally suggested. To the point that a Vatican spokesperson made it clear he was asking for an invite and I believe they admit they suspected he wanted one for political reasons and openly said so when they responded.

 

[Trancos]

Evo Morales is going too (as main speaker of one of the activities). Evo ' America is the devil' Morales. I know it's dirty and guilt by association but this open so many lines of attacks for a Super PAC. There is so much that is not under his control that can go wrong. Imagine Evo praising him in his speech. Evo will certainly say something about socialism, how capitalism/America is the enemy of the people in Latin America. The Sanders will be asked for a reply from the US media, and he loses the control of the agenda again, he may have to be answering about what Evo said instead of talking about his campaign.

 

[Loudninja]

The new NY polls have been pretty consistent.

 

[Macho Madness]

iraqipressminister.jpg

https://mobile.twitter.com/DannyEFreeman/status/719175846402125826?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

 

[Loudninja]

iraqipressminister.jpg

https://mobile.twitter.com/DannyEFreeman/status/719175846402125826?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

He moved the goal post already :/

 

[NeoXChaos]

iraqipressminister.jpg

https://mobile.twitter.com/DannyEFreeman/status/719175846402125826?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=orYcAiFqknU

 

[Iolo]

iraqipressminister.jpg

https://mobile.twitter.com/DannyEFreeman/status/719175846402125826?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Since people were wondering what the response will be if/when he loses NY. There it is.

 

[User 463088]

iraqipressminister.jpg

https://mobile.twitter.com/DannyEFreeman/status/719175846402125826?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Two days ago he was definitely, 100% going to win, and by significant margins.

Now, meh. Fuck it.

If Queen sweeps the rest of this month, I will take any form of punishment you all think is fitting. No one deserves to be that happy without some form of punishment.

Also, on MTP, Bernie says she is qualified, but lacks the judgement to be President. Great. Well done. Trump already tweeted how he agreed with Bernie about the experience thing. Keep giving the GOP shit brah. Keep doing it.

 

[Slayven]

IN that Fox News poll, Hillary's support is a lot more firm than Bernie's. We've seen that in most polls as well. Kinda goes against that enthusiasm argument a bit.

Also, Bernie better hope he has a good debate. If he has a bad one, he's got to jet off to the Vatican to attend his meeting and he won't be able to go on the programs and spin it.

I always felt the ehtusiasm arguement was bullshit. Hilalry voters aren't on twitter and face book with the memes and fanfiction. THey go to the booth and do what they feel they need to do and call it a day.

Someone on Kos mentioned that he's not even scheduled to speak at this thing. Not sure if that's accurate, but the entire thing is just absolutely stupid. Weaver acted like he had no idea this was going to happen until Bernie announced it. I wonder if his internals aren't great? I can't figure out how he thought this was going to be a good idea 3 days before the most important primary in the month. It's laughable. It's not McCain suspending his campaign bad, but it's damn stupid.

Are people still shocked at how amateur hour his campaign has been?

iraqipressminister.jpg

https://mobile.twitter.com/DannyEFreeman/status/719175846402125826?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

He is taking all of cali

 

[Iolo]

This is all in Bernie's plan to win .VA in the general.

 

[User 463088]

This is all in Bernie's plan to win .VA in the general.

This is one of the things that pissed me off the most. He didn't give the infrastructure investments in the swing states because they weren't advantageous to him. That's a huge freaking problem! Ugh. I mean, I don't think it will matter...but come on!

 

[Bowdz]

iraqipressminister.jpg

https://mobile.twitter.com/DannyEFreeman/status/719175846402125826?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

To be fair to Bernie, this is consistent with what Jeff Weaver has been saying (no candidate will get enough pledged delegates to outright win the nomination, super delegates don't vote until the convention, we plan to flip superdelegates before the convention and win there). It is a stupid fucking strategy that would not only go against the will of the voters but against the precedent Hillary set in 2008, but hey, it is consistent.

Let's hope that this means their internals have them down like a motherfucker. I want Hilldawg to blow Bernie the fuck out of NY.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

iraqipressminister.jpg

https://mobile.twitter.com/DannyEFreeman/status/719175846402125826?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Just for shits and giggles.. What would that consist of if he were to lose NY by a 10+ point margin?

 

[ampere]

Well that answers the question of whether Bernie will finally give up after New York

 

[Macho Madness]

Just for shits and giggles.. What would that consist of if he were to lose NY by a 10+ point margin?

It would be a decent delegate gain for Hillary.

HE CANT AFFORD HILLARY DELEGATE GAINS

Like it's not a matter of margin. If she wins a state, he's losing ground he can't afford to.

And New York is the second biggest delegate prize remaining.