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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Macho Madness said:
lmao are trump's notes written in comics sans?

CewgpkzW4AEml_3.jpg
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Those are definitely large-print.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Stephen Wolf ‏@PoliticsWolf 37m37 minutes ago
Stephen Wolf Retweeted Josh Marshall
Ron Johnson has always acted like he represents Oklahoma instead of Wisconsin. He's this cycle's Santorum '06 #WIsen
 
Q

QuiteWhittle

Member
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/ron-johnson-embraces-trump

Johnson told CNN he thought that Trump would help bring Republican voters to the polls.

"Certainly as I travel the state extensively, I hear a lot of support because what Donald Trump is saying resonates with an awful lot of people when it comes to the incompetence of Washington, D.C." he said.

"From what I've heard, Trump is running very strong up in the Northwest (part of the state)... that should also help me a bit too," Johnson added.

When asked whether he would campaign with the real estate mogul, Johnson replied, "Stump with Trump? ... Just because it rhymes: It'd be the Ronald (and) the Donald."
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Desperation becomes delusion
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Iolo said:
According to that analysis, Hillary's lead will continue to shrink until June 14. Really?
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It's just another post facto analysis. Start with the assumption that Bernie will win the nomination, put in a bunch of numbers, then tweak the numbers until your spreadsheet actually says that he'll win.

The justification for most of those targets is "if Bernie can't hit this he's totally screwed."
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
YES YES YES!


In tonight’s most exciting reality show plot Twist, Trump says he won’t necessarily support GOP nominee.

In tonight’s most exciting reality show plot twist, Trump says he won’t necessarily support GOP nominee.

Earlier today, Anderson Cooper asked Ted Cruz if he would still uphold his pledge to support the Republican nominee for president, even though Donald Trump had repeatedly insulted his wife over the past few weeks. Cruz responded coyly, but did not come out and explicitly state that he would not back Trump, were he the nominee.

When it was Trump’s turn to take the stage, Cooper asked him the same question and Trump gave a far more direct answer: “No, I don’t anymore.” With his showman’s flair, Trump explained his change of heart with a narrative of betrayal. “I have been treated very unfairly,” Trump said. “By basically the RNC, the Republican Party, the establishment.” As an added fillip, Trump demeaned the value of Cruz’s endorsement: “I don’t want his support. I don’t need his support.”
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IThinkILoveHim.gif
 
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NeoXChaos

Member
He's not going to run third party. He is likely the nominee still. He'll be a few delegates short but 6 weeks till Cleveland will solve that.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
http://polichart.com/interactives/bern-path
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So unless Hillary loses every remaining contest except 6, and by wide margins, he's toast? Stick a fork in this one, and get it off my timeline.

pigeon said:
It's just another post facto analysis. Start with the assumption that Bernie will win the nomination, put in a bunch of numbers, then tweak the numbers until your spreadsheet actually says that he'll win.

The justification for most of those targets is "if Bernie can't hit this he's totally screwed."
Click to expand...

To be fair, they did their best at stating that justification later on. But still, that "Her lead will shrink until 6/14 is baffling. New York is gonna blow her lead (calm down Poligays lol) to insane heights. What does a 20 point loss do to his targets, explicitly? Like, at that point, does he need 65% of remaining delegates, or what?

Edit: Trump is a goddamn genius at this primary. I legit think he just wanted to sell his brand some more with this run, but he's playing them like fiddles. He'll tear that pledge to shreds right there in Cleveland if they take it from him. God, I hope they do. It's terrible game theory though. They basically have to let the Tea Party control the train throttle, and when it derails, they can say, "We told you so." and take control again. The only fear I legit have is that the Tea Partiers have now gotten so used to phrases like "The American people don't want this" that they legitimately think the majority hates Obama, and that if Trump loses, it'll be because of voter fraud. If they think the GE was stolen, then it could get violent before they accept that reality.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Officerrob said:
I feel they will change the rules before the convention
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He's just reupping his leverage. Trump's play is to say that if they steal the nomination from him Trump will campaign against them. If they don't plausibly believe he will do that there's no downside to screwing him about of the nomination.

Ed Kilgore had a great article on how nobody actually knows how to run contested conventions. And by that I mean not just doing the contesting, I mean basic stuff like setting a speaking schedule. That stuff is usually done by the nominee.

I'm super hoping they go to a contested convention.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
pigeon said:
It's just another post facto analysis. Start with the assumption that Bernie will win the nomination, put in a bunch of numbers, then tweak the numbers until your spreadsheet actually says that he'll win.

The justification for most of those targets is "if Bernie can't hit this he's totally screwed."
Click to expand...

Never forget
 
P

pigeon

Banned
tmarg said:
To what? If he hits his number for pledged delegates, there's nothing they can do about it.
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It is actually possible for them to make all the delegates unpledged before the first ballot.

It requires them to do a bunch of work to make sure the actual delegates are not Trump supporters, but since delegate selection is an arcane, different-in-every-state process, it's definitely possible.

Pledged delegates are committed to their pledge on the first ballot until the rules change, but they can vote however they like when debating those rules changes. Ted Kennedy tried to do this to Carter.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Most of the loud anti-trump brigade has been from the Republican donor and pundit class.

Don't know why Reince isnt trying to shut this anti-trump stuff down though.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
AntraxSuicide said:
So unless Hillary loses every remaining contest except 6, and by wide margins, he's toast? Stick a fork in this one, and get it off my timeline.



To be fair, they did their best at stating that justification later on. But still, that "Her lead will shrink until 6/14 is baffling. New York is gonna blow her lead (calm down Poligays lol) to insane heights. What does a 20 point loss do to his targets, explicitly? Like, at that point, does he need 65% of remaining delegates, or what?
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Actually, she can lose every single primary 55/45, and the last few caucuses 70/30 and she still has 41 more delegates than Bernie.

If she wins more delegates than Bernie on the 19th (NY) and the 26th, he's 100% done. He'd have to win everything else by his 58%...except California, that he'd have to win by more than 68/32. He couldn't lose a single thing by a single point.
 
D

daedalius

Member
adam387 said:
Actually, she can lose every single primary 55/45, and the last few caucuses 70/30 and she still has 41 more delegates than Bernie.

If she wins more delegates than Bernie on the 19th (NY) and the 26th, he's 100% done. He'd have to win everything else by his 58%...except California, that he'd have to win by more than 68/32. He couldn't lose a single thing by a single point.
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obligatory

a-chance.gif
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
adam387 said:
Actually, she can lose every single primary 55/45, and the last few caucuses 70/30 and she still has 41 more delegates than Bernie.

If she wins more delegates than Bernie on the 19th (NY) and the 26th, he's 100% done. He'd have to win everything else by his 58%...except California, that he'd have to win by more than 68/32. He couldn't lose a single thing by a single point.
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Setting aside the unlikelihood, are you including super delegates in this?

If he does miraculously get an edge in pledged they will basically be obliged to flip.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Iolo said:
I mean we're 19,000 posts away but it's never too early.
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Oh haha. People were talking about thread titles last page in a manner that felt imminent.

PS: lolo you are one of my favorite too hard NES puzzle adventures. Just wanted you and lala to know that.
 
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