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[NYCmetsfan]

B dubs. I'm chilling with Hillary staffers and hot chicks. You're missing out.

 

[B-Dubs]

B dubs. I'm chilling with Hillary staffers and hot chicks. You're missing out.

I have no idea where this even is or how to find out about it, I am so isolated from shit like that in Queens it isn't even funny.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

B dubs. I'm chilling with Hillary staffers and hot chicks. You're missing out.

You forgot to post the picture.

 

[superdeluxe]

Sanders supporters are wanting the super delegates in states that he won to follow the will of the people and switch now

 

[Macho Madness]

Sanders supporters are wanting the super delegates in states that he won to follow the will of the people and switch now

Yes they've been doing this for a few days now because apparently understanding the superdelegate system is too difficult

 

[Slayven]

Actually, she can lose every single primary 55/45, and the last few caucuses 70/30 and she still has 41 more delegates than Bernie.

If she wins more delegates than Bernie on the 19th (NY) and the 26th, he's 100% done. He'd have to win everything else by his 58%...except California, that he'd have to win by more than 68/32. He couldn't lose a single thing by a single point.

 

[johnsmith]

Nvm nobody should be subjected to this

 

[effzee]

I'm so frustrated with the media and buying into this narrative that the American voter is "angry" or "more angry " and then if that was even true that somehow Obama has fed into this fervor.

Enough already. Just call them out already. They were questioning his birth, religion, and catering to the lowest of the low racists since before he was elected. They demonized him at every turn, opposed him on everything, their party is a joke, they continue to be more and more racist and xenophobic yet somehow Obama caused this?

And the media just let's them get away with this talking point.

 

[Macho Madness]

Obama's approval rating is so high because people are so angry

 

[Macho Madness]

Hillary is winning the popular vote of both party's primaries. People are so damn angry.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Stephen Wolf ‏@PoliticsWolf 37m37 minutes ago
Stephen Wolf Retweeted Josh Marshall
Ron Johnson has always acted like he represents Oklahoma instead of Wisconsin. He's this cycle's Santorum '06 #WIsen

He's on track to go down by double digits.

Thank you based Feingod.

 

[User 406]

There was some poll someone linked a good while back that showed that people thought that everyone else was angry, but they really weren't all that angry themselves. Kind of parallels the "Congress sucks! But my representative is great!" thing.

 

[RastaMentality]

I hope Feingold's cutting an ad right now.

 

[Box of Kittens]

wow

Vermont was once one of the most Republican states in the nation. They were one of only two states (Maine being the other) to vote for Alf Landon over FDR in 1936. It was considered a big deal when Bill Clinton won it in 1992. Prior to that the only time it had ever gone for Democratic presidential candidate was in LBJ's 1964 landslide.

In reality it had begun moving toward the Democrats in the 1980s, but this movement was somewhat masked by the huge Republican margins in each of the presidential elections that decade. That is, it was still voting Republican, but less so relative to the rest of the country. By 1988 it had drifted enough to make it as part of Dukakis's last-ditch "18 state strategy," but still narrowly went for Bush.

 

[pigeon]

There was some poll someone linked a good while back that showed that people thought that everyone else was angry, but they really weren't all that angry themselves. Kind of parallels the "Congress sucks! But my representative is great!" thing.

Probably because of all the media saying that everybody's angry and ignoring the polls that say they aren't.

Because, like, if nobody is angry, Obama has a super high approval rating, and generally America is doing okay...then that would make the political narrative this year pretty straightforward, wouldn't it?

 

[royalan]

Well, to be fair, Republicans are very angry. There's a legitimate revolt happening on the right at the moment. The problem is the media wanting to feed into their created narrative that this is happening on both sides and at all levels of government. Clearly, based on Hillary Queen of the Establishment's complete dominance and Obama's steadily rising favorables, this is just not true.

 

[B-Dubs]

Probably because of all the media saying that everybody's angry and ignoring the polls that say they aren't.

Because, like, if nobody is angry, Obama has a super high approval rating, and generally America is doing okay...then that would make the political narrative this year pretty straightforward, wouldn't it?

It does, but then the only conclusion you can draw is we're just going through the motions before President Hillary Clinton in inaugurated.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Vermont was once one of the most Republican states in the nation. They were one of only two states (Maine being the other) to vote for Alf Landon over FDR in 1936. It was considered a big deal when Bill Clinton won it in 1992. Prior to that the only time it had ever gone for Democratic presidential candidate was in LBJ's 1964 landslide.

In reality it had begun moving toward the Democrats in the 1980s, but this movement was somewhat masked by the huge Republican margins in each of the presidential elections that decade. That is, it was still voting Republican, but less so relative to the rest of the country. By 1988 it had drifted enough to make it as part of Dukakis's last-ditch "18 state strategy," but still narrowly went for Bush.

Is that how west virginia slowly became red over time? Dukakis and Bill Clinton masked its inevitable rightward shft? same for LA, TN, AR, KY?

AL and MS went right quicker than those 5. Bill didnt win these two.

 

[B-Dubs]

Is that how west virginia slowly became red over time? Dukakis and Bill Clinton masked its inevitable rightward shft? same for LA, TN, AR, KY?

AL and MS went right quicker than those 5. Bill didnt win these two.

West Virginia likely turned more and more red as the coal industry slowly died. It's hard to be pro-union when you're in a union but have no job because your industry is dying a slow death.

 

[User 406]

I guess if we have no real justification for all these young adult dystopian three book/movie franchises, then we'll just have to create one.

 

[hawk2025]

I hope to never hear the word tremendous again after this election cycle.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

To what? If he hits his number for pledged delegates, there's nothing they can do about it.

In theory, can they just change the rules to arbitrarily exclude Trump? Like, only people from states that went red in the last 15 years can be eligible? That would exclude only Trump from the current 3 (obviously that's undemocratic as hell, but that's true of any nomination shenanigans, they can't hide it).

Actually, she can lose every single primary 55/45, and the last few caucuses 70/30 and she still has 41 more delegates than Bernie.

If she wins more delegates than Bernie on the 19th (NY) and the 26th, he's 100% done. He'd have to win everything else by his 58%...except California, that he'd have to win by more than 68/32. He couldn't lose a single thing by a single point.

That's what I figured. Thanks!

I'm so frustrated with the media and buying into this narrative that the American voter is "angry" or "more angry " and then if that was even true that somehow Obama has fed into this fervor.

Enough already. Just call them out already. They were questioning his birth, religion, and catering to the lowest of the low racists since before he was elected. They demonized him at every turn, opposed him on everything, their party is a joke, they continue to be more and more racist and xenophobic yet somehow Obama caused this?

And the media just let's them get away with this talking point.

I really hate the "voters are angry" talking point. (I guess I'm angry about that!) Hillary Clinton, most notable for being called "status quo" by her detractors, has more votes for her than any other candidate running. Obama has a positive approval rating, and it's climbing. The man was elected twice! And his successor is going to be "more of the same" as him. It's literally irrational to argue that voters are angry.

 

[User 406]

I hope to never hear the word tremendous again after this election cycle.

I guarantee you there will be no problem with that one, believe me.

 

[shinra-bansho]

The right is angry because Obama was too effective without wanting to admit it. The left of the left is angry he wasn't effective enough.

 

[User1608]

Is it a dream for Obama to have at least a 55-60% approval rating by the end of this year?

The right is angry because Obama was too effective without wanting to admit it. The left of the left is angry he wasn't effective enough.

Sounds about right.

 

[B-Dubs]

The right is angry because Obama was too effective without wanting to admit it. The left of the left is angry he wasn't effective enough.

Only it's part of the left that's angry, not the whole thing. The part of the left that's angry is always going to be angry they haven't gotten everything they wanted though and that's to be expected, the more extreme wings of each party should be angry and pushing for more. It's how we keep moving, the problem I have is the inability to acknowledge how far we've come in such a short time.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Is that how west virginia slowly became red over time? Dukakis and Bill Clinton masked its inevitable rightward shft? same for LA, TN, AR, KY?

AL and MS went right quicker than those 5. Bill didnt win these two.

West Virginia's shift was, at the presidential level, very rapid. In 1996 Clinton did better in West Virginia than in the country as a whole. In fact, he did better there than he did in California. In 2000 Bush won West Virginia by over 6 points despite losing the popular vote.

EDIT: In the cases of LA, TN, AR, all those states had moved away from the Democrats and towards the Republicans by the time of the 1992 election. Arkansas of course had the home state effect going pretty dramatically. Tennessee and Louisiana each seemed to give a pretty strong bonus to a Southern nominee despite their overall trend, as can be seen in Carter's performance in those states. Clinton was more the case of a candidate whose unique strengths played well in those particular states.

Kentucky's a little harder to categorize, but it basically acted like a swing state up through the Bill Clinton years, then moved dramatically away afterwards. This is perhaps fitting given Kentucky's status as one of those states that lies near the boundaries between regions and doesn't completely fit into any of them. It's tended to vote somewhere between the Midwest and the South, with some definite similarities with West Virginia.

 

[ivysaur12]

Just gave to Cortez Masto and Ross. Feelin' blessed.

 

[Tubie]

What is idiotic, is that she claims to be gravely concerned about Global Warming, but refuses to come out against fracking (she actually promoted it, as Secretary of State), when it greatly contributes to the release of methane, which, as I'm sure you know, is a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.

Aren't you a climate change truther/denier?

 

[Maengun1]

A lot of terrible people got elected in 2010, but I've always had a special extra layer of contempt for Ron Johnson. Partly because Wisconsin is near and dear to my heart, but he's just such a useless waste of space. I'm going to be so pleased when they have a godly Feingold/Baldwin Senate duo. 'Course there's still Walker...:gag:

Anyway, April is usually one of my favorite months of the year but this one is just going to be annoying for me to get through. Just staring at the calendar waiting for the 19th & 26th.

 

[GregLombardi]

Can someone please remind me why Kasich has no chance at winning the nomination?

I just want to make sure the doomsday scenario against Clinton won't take shape.

 

[ivysaur12]

Can someone please remind me why Kasich has no chance at winning the nomination?

I just want to make sure the doomsday scenario against Clinton won't take shape.

He's won one state and isn't well liked by the party establishment that's already lining up behind Cruz.

 

[User 85168]

Can someone please remind me why Kasich has no chance at winning the nomination?

I just want to make sure the doomsday scenario against Clinton won't take shape.

There are 943 delegates left up for grabs. Kasich needs 1094 more to win the nomination. So he's mathematically eliminated from winning the nomination through the "normal" method. That being said, no one can guarantee what's going to happen if the convention is contested.

 

[Tubie]

I kinda prefer Cruz now as the repug candidate.

Either way, either him or Trump will get crushed by Hillary worse than the 2008 Obama win over McCain.

 

[GregLombardi]

He's won one state and isn't well liked by the party establishment that's already lining up behind Cruz.

There are 943 delegates left up for grabs. Kasich needs 1094 more to win the nomination. So he's mathematically eliminated from winning the nomination through the "normal" method. That being said, no one can guarantee what's going to happen if the convention is contested.

These things make me feel better.

Damn a contested convention is going to be nerve wracking, and probably the most disturbing entertainment to ever come out of American politics, if it happens.

 

[Kyosaiga]

I kinda prefer Cruz now as the repug candidate.

Either way, either him or Trump will get crushed by Hillary worse than the 2008 Obama win over McCain.

I don't think there's a scenario where Trump isn't running in the GE.

He's either the Republican nominee

or

if they screw him, he screws them by running third party

 

[ivysaur12]

Okay, let's go with my theory that the GOP won't fuck with Trump if he wins 50% of the delegates.

The rest of the calendar (and let's be pessimistic for Trump):

Wisconsin (Cruz)
New York (Trump)
Connecticut (Trump)
Delaware (Trump)
Maryland (Trump)
Rhode Island (Cruz)
Indiana (Trump)
West Virginia (TRUMP)
Oregon (Cruz)
Washington (Cruz)
California (Trump)
Montana (Cruz)
New Jersey (Trump)
New Mexico (Trump)
South Dakota (Cruz)

That would give Trump at least 504 more delegates (looking at WTA/proportionality) which would give him... 1256 delegates.

What really helps Trump is that Oregon and Washington are proportional.

 

[Bowdz]

Okay, let's go with my theory that the GOP won't fuck with Trump if he wins 50% of the delegates.

The rest of the calendar (and let's be pessimistic for Trump):

Wisconsin (Cruz)
New York (Trump)
Connecticut (Trump)
Delaware (Trump)
Maryland (Trump)
Rhode Island (Cruz)
Indiana (Trump)
West Virginia (TRUMP)
Oregon (Cruz)
Washington (Cruz)
California (Trump)
Montana (Cruz)
New Jersey (Trump)
New Mexico (Trump)
South Dakota (Cruz)

That would give Trump at least 504 more delegates (looking at WTA/proportionality) which would give him... 1256 delegates.

What really helps Trump is that Oregon and Washington are proportional.

Looks good to me and sounds about like Sam Wang's view of the rest of the primary.

That being said, all I want for Christmas this year is for the mythical Ted Cruz video to leak in the next few weeks along with the DC Madam stuff for maximum fuckery.

 

[Makai]

 

[Atomic Playboy]

Sanders supporters are wanting the super delegates in states that he won to follow the will of the people and switch now

Indeed they are. And they want superdelegates in states Hillary won to support Sanders because of reasons. Sanders supporters at this point are grasping at every straw they can, and a lot of those involve superdelegates superseding the actual pledged delegate totals to vote for Sanders because "he's the people's choice!" (as long as you ignore actual vote totals).

 

[googleplex]

Indeed they are. And they want superdelegates in states Hillary won to support Sanders because of reasons. Sanders supporters at this point are grasping at every straw they can, and a lot of those involve superdelegates superseding the actual pledged delegate totals to vote for Sanders because "he's the people's choice!" (as long as you ignore actual vote totals).

And in many of those states Minorities overwhelming supported Hillary. So they basically want to invalidate The minority vote. Then they'll scratch their heads and try and figure out why we won't support their candidate.

 

[Jimmy King]

I kinda prefer Cruz now as the repug candidate.

Either way, either him or Trump will get crushed by Hillary worse than the 2008 Obama win over McCain.

was this intentional? or is it just the most apt Freudian slip

 

[Suikoguy]

I don't think there's a scenario where Trump isn't running in the GE.

He's either the Republican nominee

or

if they screw him, he screws them by running third party

I used to think him running 3rd party was a stretch. Then I saw the constant number of times where he showed how over-sensitive and thin-skinned he was. It would not surprise me in the least now if he were to run 3rd party just to fuck them over. Combined with his ego, yeah, he would do it.

 

[ivysaur12]

Cruz at the top of the ticket and Trump as a third party would give, what, 40 states to Hillary?

 

[Lord Fagan]

If I could, I'd like to take a moment and thank the good posters of Poligaf and their quality analysis and discussion of American politics.

A ways back, I swore to myself I wouldn't get sucked into another tangential distraction in the shitshow off topic threads, but a little while ago, I did just that. Again.

I don't post too often in here, mostly because a lot of what I'd like to say is said much better than I can usually articulate (and much quicker, too), but this has become my go to source for my straight dope wonk fix forged in healthy skepticism and plated very good humor. You cats are alright, and it doesn't matter how inane and circular the "national conversation" is elsewhere, Poligaf makes it all better in just half a page of state by state breakdowns and delicious journalism snark over Twitter. I could list the names of posters whose opinions at least capture my interest daily, but I'd probably forget to mention too many of you. Even the grenade throwers. People kick hornet's nests all the time on GAF, but not with the style and cordiality in this corner of the forums. So, truly, from a lonely night audit manager in flyover country, you all have my deep appreciation.

Never change. I need this, man. Need it.

 

[Jimmy King]

If I could, I'd like to take a moment and thank the good posters of Poligaf and their quality analysis and discussion of American politics.

A ways back, I swore to myself I wouldn't get sucked into another tangential distraction in the shitshow off topic threads, but a little while ago, I did just that. Again.

I don't post too often in here, mostly because a lot of what I'd like to say is said much better than I can usually articulate (and much quicker, too), but this has become my go to source for my straight dope wonk fix forged in healthy skepticism and plated very good humor. You cats are alright, and it doesn't matter how inane and circular the "national conversation" is elsewhere, Poligaf makes it all better in just half a page of state by state breakdowns and delicious journalism snark over Twitter. I could list the names of posters whose opinions at least capture my interest daily, but I'd probably forget to mention too many of you. Even the grenade throwers. People kick hornet's nests all the time on GAF, but not with the style and cordiality in this corner of the forums. So, truly, from a lonely night audit manager in flyover country, you have my deep appreciation.

Never change. I need this, man. Need it.

Can I co-sign?

I might not have much to contribute other than attempts at humor but I'm learning a lot from y'all.

 

[kess]

Is it a dream for Obama to have at least a 55-60% approval rating by the end of this year?

The way this campaign is progressing, I wouldn't be surprised if he hits 55% by the end of next month.

 

[CCS]

Is it a dream for Obama to have at least a 55-60% approval rating by the end of this year?

Sounds about right.

It's amazing how much more people appreciate Obama when the Republicans are busily demonstrating how dreadful the alternative would be.

 

[Suikoguy]

Can I co-sign?

I might not have much to contribute other than attempts at humor but I'm learning a lot from y'all.

If I could, I'd like to take a moment and thank the good posters of Poligaf and their quality analysis and discussion of American politics.

A ways back, I swore to myself I wouldn't get sucked into another tangential distraction in the shitshow off topic threads, but a little while ago, I did just that. Again.

I don't post too often in here, mostly because a lot of what I'd like to say is said much better than I can usually articulate (and much quicker, too), but this has become my go to source for my straight dope wonk fix forged in healthy skepticism and plated very good humor. You cats are alright, and it doesn't matter how inane and circular the "national conversation" is elsewhere, Poligaf makes it all better in just half a page of state by state breakdowns and delicious journalism snark over Twitter. I could list the names of posters whose opinions at least capture my interest daily, but I'd probably forget to mention too many of you. Even the grenade throwers. People kick hornet's nests all the time on GAF, but not with the style and cordiality in this corner of the forums. So, truly, from a lonely night audit manager in flyover country, you all have my deep appreciation.

Never change. I need this, man. Need it.

Just keep in mind we don't always know what the fuck we are talking about, especially when it comes to those damn caucuses.

 

[mo60]

Cruz at the top of the ticket and Donald "Spread it out in small doses" Trump as a third party would give, what, 40 states to Hillary?

Probably high 30's for the amount of states she wins because I expect some of the republican heavy states to still vote for either candidate, but this is depending on how much both cruz and donald split certain states. Depending on how much they split certain states clinton can clinch states that people thought would be impossible for clinton to win.