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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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G

Grexeno

Member
Macho Madness said:
12DhszX.jpg
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This can't be a real cartoon. It only has one description plastered onto something.
 
Tesseract

Tesseract

Banned
i wish i knew what was uninformed, bad, and wrong about wanting to tear down corporate media a few notches while supporting your primary candidate.

skeevy behavior, this

my purpose is to find john connor
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
royalan said:
I don't recall anybody in this thread doing that. People were saying that Michigan and Wisconsin were unimportant because Bernie didn't and wouldn't win them by enough for them to really change the race, which ended up being the case. Not because they were "too white." The racial makeup was only really brought up to point out that these states could lean Sanders based on how he performed leading up to them.
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balladofwindfishes said:
People were saying those states were unimportant because their delegate wins were tiny and meaningless towards helping Bernie close his gap.
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Fine, I could replace Michigan and Wisconsin with New Hampshire and dig out those posts and the point would remain the same. :p

Primaries make people sort of insane and dumb (Sanders with AA voters, Clinton with young female voters), basically. :D

Also, considering I am a Dolphins and Seahawks fan, I am super fucking glad Harbaugh is at Michigan and not in the NFC West any more. Mock Michigan and Wisconsin CFB at your own risk. :p
 
S

Snowman Prophet of Doom

Member
pigeon said:
Literally the purpose of PoliGAF from my perspective is to provide a place where if people post uninformed one-liner posts I can point out that their position is bad and wrong.

Maybe other people get something else out of it, I dunno.



Yeah, I don't really think Bernie is like more than one standard deviation away from the mean level of racism for his age and class and whatnot. Fundamentally he just has a painful campaign positioning problem right now because he keeps losing demographics that are pretty key Democratic demographics and then has to find a narrative to explain why that's not a big deal. There is not a super good way to do that! But then go back and look at Hillary explaining that she's losing young women because they're not paying attention to how awesome she is. It's just a bad conversation to even have.
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Or the argument her surrogates are making, which is that young women are not opting in for Hillary because they don't yet understand what sexism REALLY is, so they just don't appreciate how big of a deal it would be to elect a woman. When you are making the claim that you are the best of a slate of candidates, it is very, very difficult to make an argument for why groups that are not getting on board with you without coming across as at least a little bit condescending toward that group, and neither campaign is doing a good job of that particular tightrope walk right now. PoliGAF is echo chambery, full of the people who follow this stuff meticulously, so every Bernie misstep gets magnified a hundredfold, but the nature of political campaigning is that the average Bernie voter probably hears only a fraction of this stuff and won't internalize it as deeply as the Bernie diehards have. I have zero fear that Bernie's campaign is somehow going to lose Dems the election this year, and unless some data emerge to contradict that, I think all the panicking is just silly Diablosing.
 
K

Kangi

Member
Nate's having none of Bernie's rhetoric.

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 3h3 hours ago
Clinton's largest net delegate advantage over Sanders comes from Texas & Florida. Both are Southern but also incredibly diverse.

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 3h3 hours ago
You want states that are representative of the Democratic electorate? Ones on 3/15 (OH, FL, IL, NC, MO) are pretty good. Sanders 0 for 5.

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 3h3 hours ago
If the order of states matters, and it probably doesn't much in a 2-candidate race, Sanders was very lucky that IA and NH went first.
Click to expand...

Oh, and:

Joy Reid
‏@JoyAnnReid
Robbins says Sanders is winning young people, independents and "the people who do the hard work."
Click to expand...

*whistle sound*
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Cybit said:
Michigan State CFB says hi.
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Michigan State CFB can literally fight me

Snowman Prophet of Doom said:
I have zero fear that Bernie's campaign is somehow going to lose Dems the election this year, and unless some data emerge to contradict that, I think all the panicking is just silly Diablosing.
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FWIW, even though you're responding to pigeon and the thread writ large with that post, I felt like saying this: any posts I make about Bernie's campaign are for the sake of being about Bernie's campaign, not so much about their (almost certainly negligible) general-election impacts. After 2008, I'm never gonna wring my hands to that extent over hyperbolic Internet diehards ever again.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
eBay Huckster said:
Michigan State CFB can literally fight me



FWIW, even though you're responding to pigeon and the thread writ large with that post, I felt like saying this: any posts I make about Bernie's campaign are for the sake of being about Bernie's campaign, not so much about their (almost certainly negligible) general-election impacts. After 2008, I'm never gonna wring my hands to that extent over hyperbolic Internet diehards ever again.
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A) LOL. The missus teaches at Notre Dame (and often teaches the CFB folks) - so I have opinions on CFB, as it were. ;-). Clean your damn plate next time and let's get the Big 10 another championship so I don't want to have to spend another 4 months wanting to bitchslap all my SEC friends.

B) Yep.

EDIT: Though, she does get tickets to ND bowl games. Thankfully we didn't go to the ass whooping you laid on us this year. :D
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
Cybit said:
Sort of. I think if Sanders were winning the South and Clinton were winning the NE; there would be dismissiveness here towards the South. Look at the posts about Michigan and Wisconsin being less important because they are "too white". Folks (everyone, mind you) are playing up the importance of the states that vote for their candidate and downplaying the states that aren't voting for their candidates. That's not particularly abnormal or weird or anything out of the ordinary to be honest. :D
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I have never heard this anywhere. I haven't heard anyone downplaying any state except for not having many delegates.
 
N

noshten

Member
Kangi said:
*whistle sound*
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Bernie has a much broader base to build a winning coalition on, there is an article in AP that found how Sen. Clinton's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting Sanders.
There's a pattern emerging here

I might have Clinton Obama & Sanders mixed up a bit
 
F

FloydtheFathead

Member
Cybit said:
Fine, I could replace Michigan and Wisconsin with New Hampshire and dig out those posts and the point would remain the same. :p

Primaries make people sort of insane and dumb (Sanders with AA voters, Clinton with young female voters), basically. :D

Also, considering I am a Dolphins and Seahawks fan, I am super fucking glad Harbaugh is at Michigan and not in the NFC West any more. Mock Michigan and Wisconsin CFB at your own risk. :p
Click to expand...

1) why to the bolded?
2) I will mock them because that is my god given duty and right because Michigan hasn't been relevant since Braylon Edwards could actually catch a damn ball in college

And the Wisconsin Badgers .. Hahahahahahaha.
They aren't even the best college program in the state. That's Wisconsin-Whitewater. At least they've won a national championship.

Respect the Badgers.. Pls.

Cybit said:
A) LOL. The missus teaches at Notre Dame (and often teaches the CFB folks) - so I have opinions on CFB, as it were. ;-). Clean your damn plate next time and let's get the Big 10 another championship so I don't want to have to spend another 4 months wanting to bitchslap all my SEC friends.

B) Yep.

EDIT: Though, she does get tickets to ND bowl games. Thankfully we didn't go to the ass whooping you laid on us this year. :D
Click to expand...

Oh.. That's your problem.. You should divorce her now because well.. Fuck Notre Dame.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
Las7 said:
Bernie has a much broader base to build a winning coalition on, there is an article in AP that found how Sen. Clinton's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting Sanders.
There's a pattern emerging here
Click to expand...
Clinton has a winning coalition. She is winning and she will win in November. Easily. Sanders may poll better in head to head match ups, but when the front runner trounces the Republican front runners, that's no reason to override the voters who have voted for Clinton in greater numbers than Sanders. If Clinton was weak against Trump and Cruz fair enough... But she isn't. And demographically she matches very well in November.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
or in other words: she's already beating them by 10 with unfavorables baked in, you're gonna need a damn good objective reason other than that to gamble that for the guy up 14 who's softer than a marshmallow
 
N

noshten

Member
plagiarize said:
Clinton has a winning coalition. She is winning and she will win in November. Easily. Sanders may poll better in head to head match ups, but when the front runner trounces the Republican front runners, that's no reason to override the voters who have voted for Clinton in greater numbers than Sanders. If Clinton was weak against Trump and Cruz fair enough... But she isn't. And demographically she matches very well in November.
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I've never question how strong Clinton would be in a General against Cruz/Trump.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Las7 said:
I've never question how strong Clinton would be in a General against Cruz/Trump.
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But Sanders has put forth his superiority in General Election Matchups as a reason for Supers to override the pledged delegate lead and popular vote lead. Isn't that pretty much the same thing?
 
A

Armaros

Member
Well the person that had the 'corporate Democratic whores' line was Dr. Paul Song, husband of Lisa Ling.

Whose sister was arrested in North Korea and Bill Clinton went to North Korea to negotiate for her return in 2009. Whoops.
 
N

nillah

Banned
The elephant in the room with Hiliary is ok let's just get this woman president thing out of the way. She's notorious for just following orders. If we're going to go female president, I'm talking go big or go home shit, Rosa Parks
 
A

ampere

Member
Armaros said:
Well the person that had the 'corporate Democratic whores' line was Dr. Paul Song, husband of Lisa Ling.

Whose sister was arrested in North Korea and Bill Clinton went to North Korea to negotiate for her return in 2009. Whoops.
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Ya...

Paul Song claims he was not referring to Hillary with the "whores" comment, but too late for that now! Also, bad choice of words regardless.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
This must be killing Paul Ryan. He can deny it all he wants, but there is nothing more on the planet that he wants than to be handed the nomination. With all the cards falling into place to where it seems like it could happen, he must be frothing at the mouth. Some guy on Chris Hayes said it the best the other day, "the man is ambitious as Satan".
 
A

Aaronology

Member
I got home and checked my email and was a little surprised to see Sanders has finally started supporting a few downtickets. It's been one of my biggest criticisms of his run. Couched in this support was an interesting story about Lucy Flores, one of the three politicians Sanders has thrown his weight behind.

I need to share a story with you, Aaron. It will probably anger you, but hopefully it will also inspire you to take action in support of one of the most courageous people I’ve met during this campaign.

Lucy Flores was the first Latina assemblywoman in Nevada and made national news when she became one of the first elected officials to testify about an abortion she had at the age of 16.

During her 2014 campaign one D.C. pro-choice group, EMILY’s List, endorsed her and added that she was an "inspiring community leader." They even kicked off a program to elect more Latinas to Congress in 2016.

But then Lucy Flores endorsed our political revolution before the Nevada caucus, and everything changed. EMILY’s List decided to endorse a different person in Lucy’s House race this time around. So I want to support Lucy like she’s supported us, because we stand together. And I am asking you to join me:
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Clinton is not mentioned by name, of course, but the implication is clear: "Lucy Flores had the audacity to support Bernie Sanders and now the Establishment is punishing her for it." This will probably anger you~. DailyKos ran a story damning EMILY's List for spitefully withdrawing support for Flores and Reddit and places like DemocraticUnderground have naturally run with the narrative that Clinton is quietly using her connections to silence opposition. The internet is being the internet.

The problem? Via Politico:
But EMILY’s List does, in fact, back some candidates who have endorsed Sanders. And that includes Pramila Jayapal, a House candidate in Washington who also got a round of fundraising emails from Sanders on Monday — though with a message that didn’t mention EMILY’s List. The group also backs Vermont gubernatorial candidate Sue Minter, another Sanders supporter.
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EMILY'S List response to Bernie Sanders is justifiably biting:
“Bernie Sanders believes the political revolution is built by calling women leaders ‘unqualified’ and calling abortion a ‘social issue.’ So it’s not surprising at all that he doesn’t get what we do and has resorted to these false, disingenuous attacks,” said Marcy Stech, the group’s communications director. “Perhaps if Sanders stuck to issues, not insults, he’d realize that electing pro-Democratic women is, in fact, revolutionary. The key difference is, we don’t just talk about it — we know how to get it done.”
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Their characterization of Sanders is a tad unfair, but I guess at this point you get a smear campaign, you get a smear campaign, everyone gets a smear campaign. I'm disappointed to see Sanders' camp stoop this low, because while Bernie never had my stringent support he had my respect. You either drop out of the primary a hero or stay in long enough to become a politician, it seems.
 
H

hawk2025

Member
Aaronology said:
Their characterization of Sanders is a tad unfair, but I guess at this point you get a smear campaign, you get a smear campaign, everyone gets a smear campaign. I'm disappointed to see Sanders' camp stoop this low, because while Bernie never had my stringent support he had my respect. You either drop out of the primary a hero or stay in long enough to become a politician, it seems.
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This is the most unfortunate bit:

This round of emails should have been an uncontroversial win, a clear and simple way to show that he's listening and supporting some other candidates.

Instead he added (well, his campaign) that unnecessary fucking slight.


Edit: Shit, I double-posted. In my defense, I was dumbfounded by the first post I replied to!
 
A

Armaros

Member
hawk2025 said:
This is the most unfortunate bit:

This round of emails should have been an uncontroversial win, a clear and simple way to show that he's listening and supporting some other candidates.

Instead he adding that unnecessary fucking slight.


Edit: Shit, I double-posted. To my defense, I was dumbfounded by the first post I replied to!
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And again, it makes it seem like the Sander's Campaign have no internal fact-checkers or people to corroborate and double check things going out to the public.

It should have taken them 5 mins to figure out that Emily's List is supporting some of their candidates.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
nillah said:
The elephant in the room with Hiliary is ok let's just get this woman president thing out of the way. She's notorious for just following orders. If we're going to go female president, I'm talking go big or go home shit, Rosa Parks
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Thanks for setting your conditions on when it would be appropriate to elect a female president!
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Armaros said:
And again, it makes it seem like the Sander's Campaign have no internal fact-checkers or people to corroborate and double check things going out to the public.

It should have taken them 5 mins to figure out that Emily's List is supporting some of their candidates.
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The email would've been fine without it! But instead, we had to shit on EMILY.

It's amazing that the first thing Bernie does to support down ticket candidates, their campaign somehow makes it divisive and stupid.

Also Lucy Flores's district's race is REALLY IMPORTANT to win, so can we NOT fuck this up?
 
H

Holmes

Member
ivysaur12 said:
The email would've been fine without it! But instead, we had to shit on EMILY.

It's amazing that the first thing Bernie does to support down ticket candidates, their campaign somehow makes it divisive and stupid.

Also Lucy Flores's district's race is REALLY IMPORTANT to win, so can we NOT fuck this up?
Click to expand...
Ruben_Kihuen_2012.jpg
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Look, it even says "Gay" on the banner behind him.. I assume!
 
N

noshten

Member
ivysaur12 said:
The email would've been fine without it! But instead, we had to shit on EMILY.

It's amazing that the first thing Bernie does to support down ticket candidates, their campaign somehow makes it divisive and stupid.
Click to expand...

Maybe his fundraising team knows a bit more about fundraising than us, she might need the money desperately. At least that's what Jon Ralston is implying - despite leading in the polls it appears Lucy is struggling with the fundraising she doesn't have EMILYs list to back her up after all.

Sanders sends out fundraising pitch for Lucy Flores

I always thought that Lucy Flores' endorsement of Bernie Sanders was more about her congressional race than his presidential aspirations.

And on Wednesday, Sanders showed he is willing to help Flores' candidacy. She leads in many polls based on name recongition but has riased very little money.

Sanders wants to help, mentioning her 2014 EMILY's List endorsement (the group is with Susie Lee this cycle and snubbed Flores) in this small-dollar pitch (she will need a lot of these to make any kind of difference, although every little bit helps):
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Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 5h5 hours ago
In hotly contested #nv04 primary, @SusieLee4NV raised $230K in 1Q, bringing her total to $1.1M total and $642K COH. $50K was her own money.

In #nv04, Reid-anointed @RubenKihuen raised $191k and has $425K COH. That means he outraised @SusieLee4NV (not counting $50K she put in).

.@lucyflores won't release her #nv04 numbers until Friday, but she won't be able to match those numbers. Can Bernie rescue her?
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
Las7 said:
Maybe his fundraising team knows a bit more about fundraising than us, she might need the money desperately. At least that's what Jon Ralston is implying - despite leading in the polls it appears Lucy is struggling with the fundraising she doesn't have EMILYs list to back her up after all.

Sanders sends out fundraising pitch for Lucy Flores



Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 5h5 hours ago
In hotly contested #nv04 primary, @SusieLee4NV raised $230K in 1Q, bringing her total to $1.1M total and $642K COH. $50K was her own money.

In #nv04, Reid-anointed @RubenKihuen raised $191k and has $425K COH. That means he outraised @SusieLee4NV (not counting $50K she put in).

.@lucyflores won't release her #nv04 numbers until Friday, but she won't be able to match those numbers. Can Bernie rescue her?
Click to expand...


So?

What's that have to do with Emily's List?
 
H

hawk2025

Member
Las7 said:
Maybe his fundraising team knows a bit more about fundraising than us, she might need the money desperately. At least that's what Jon Ralston is implying - despite leading in the polls it appears Lucy is struggling with the fundraising she doesn't have EMILYs list to back her up after all.

Sanders sends out fundraising pitch for Lucy Flores



Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 5h5 hours ago
In hotly contested #nv04 primary, @SusieLee4NV raised $230K in 1Q, bringing her total to $1.1M total and $642K COH. $50K was her own money.

In #nv04, Reid-anointed @RubenKihuen raised $191k and has $425K COH. That means he outraised @SusieLee4NV (not counting $50K she put in).

.@lucyflores won't release her #nv04 numbers until Friday, but she won't be able to match those numbers. Can Bernie rescue her?
Click to expand...


How does that in any way relate to the tone of the fundraising email?
 
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