PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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studyguy

Member
Last night didn't change any minds is the bottom line, plain and simple. If Bernie was going to make any sort of headway against the current polls he needed something like Rubio's meltdown moment against Christie to happen to Hillary, it didn't. People can quip about non-answers or poor stances on guns, foreign policy, Israel-Palestine, but nothing changed.
 
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Aaron Strife

Banned
Terri Bonoff to get in the race against Rep. Erik Paulsen (MN-3)

This is a HUGE recruitment win for the DFL, Bonoff is the most formidable Democrat you could ask for in this district.

In 2012 Paulsen won 58-42 against some rando, so it's possible someone more established like Bonoff (long time state senator) could do significantly better. Maybe even win!
 
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shinra-bansho

Member
Suikoguy said:
So you are telling me it might actually be worse than a conscious tactic?

:(
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Well, it depends on what you consider worse.

Consciously exploiting the tenuous policy grasp of the youth.

Or having that same tenuous grasp as a candidate.

Gotchaye posted earlier in the thread a sentiment I basically share. An initial thought that it was the former, that's gradually shifted to the latter.
 
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Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
shinra-bansho said:
Well, it depends on what you consider worse.

Consciously exploiting the tenuous policy grasp of the youth.

Or having that same tenuous grasp as a candidate.

Gotchaye posted earlier in the thread a sentiment I basically share. An initial thought that it was the former, that's gradually shifted to the latter.
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I... don't know.

I'll just take this opportunity to take a nap and hope I get rid of this stupid cold.
 
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dramatis

Member
studyguy said:
Last night didn't change any minds is the bottom line, plain and simple. If Bernie was going to make any sort of headway against the current polls he needed something like Rubio's meltdown moment against Christie to happen to Hillary, it didn't. People can quip about non-answers or poor stances on guns, foreign policy, Israel-Palestine, but nothing changed.
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That's what I thought, other than the Palestinian exchange possibly making Bernie's numbers worse in the Jewish vote. But the ratio there was already 60 something to 30 something, so I don't know if it could actually get worse.
 
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Bowdz

Member
Macho Madness said:
siren.gif~c200
siren.gif~c200
siren.gif~c200


Arizona Senate General Election

Kirkpatrick 42
McCain 42
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Holy SHIIIIIIIIIIT!!!!!!!!
 
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studyguy

Member
dramatis said:
That's what I thought, other than the Palestinian exchange possibly making Bernie's numbers worse in the Jewish vote. But the ratio there was already 60 something to 30 something, so I don't know if it could actually get worse.
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He definitely wasn't winning over NYC Jewish crowds anyway and it's too late to bridge the gap, might as well go all in is what I assume his team was thinking.
 
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pigeon

Banned
Daniel B·;201052896 said:
Oh Pigeon; tsk, tsk! You must be hoping PoliGAF readers have the memory of a gnat; as I'm sure some recall, wasn't there a poster, not that long ago, who seemed reliable, and who stated that they were aware of the contents of one of Hillary's Wall St. speeches, and it would have most certainly lost her an up coming primary, had she released it at the time?
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I do remember that, but, to be frank, it doesn't mean I believe that guy.

Poodlestrike said:
How's that working out for Putin?

I know the situation isn't wholly comparable, because Israel is actually a democracy, but international isolation is a coinflip at best. If Bibi manages the rhetoric just right, the hardliners could end up with more power, not less.
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I don't really think I agree with this -- honestly, I think East Lake is mostly right here. Israel is an American client state in many respects, and I think lots of Israeli people understand this at some level. Even ignoring the, you know, aid and military support and whatnot, America provides the rubber stamp that prevents the UN from recognizing Palestine. That is kind of a big deal for Israel's foreign policy interests, since if Palestine were a country Israel would immediately be in violation of a whole bunch of UN rules.

If our focus is on unseating Netanyahu it's worth remembering that Obama already got within two hours of doing that in the 2015 Israel elections just by agreeing to peace with Iran. The current, higher-pressure engagement with Israel has actually produced some meaningful results. I think that makes it pretty easy to argue that we should keep up the pressure until we get policy changes.

Personally I would actually just let the UN recognize Palestine but that's why they don't send me to the UN.
 
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Ignatz Mouse

Banned
The reason Hilary doesn't release the transcripts is mostly because she'd want to preserve the leverage to demand the same of any GOP candidate. Doing so unilaterally would just give people raw material to quote of out context.

It would be like a hundred examples of the "Hillary blames homeowners" from one of the speeches that *is* public. a 30-second soundbite taken out of context to essentially imply the opposite of what she was saying.
 
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Plumbob

Member
Suppose Hillary releases the transcripts and there's a financial regulation policy promise in there that's completely the opposite of what she'd been saying on the campaign trail. Would that change any of your minds?
 
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studyguy

Member
I actually didn't know Sanders campaign suspended their Jewish outreach coordinator literally days after taking them on... Hired Tuesday and thrown out Thursday jeez.
 
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ApharmdX

Banned
euphemism said:
TYT is killing me this cycle, I barely watch them anymore because of how overtly they shill for Bernie. It's pretty gross when Jimmy D sits there and says things like "fuck you Hillary" or "she's a criminal" (not verbatim) . Then they put out debate recaps the day after complete with "best/worst line" and "who won?" I don't think they have ever had one where they announced Clinton as the debate winner the entire primary. Not once.
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I still like TYT for their commentary, particularly on the GOP race, but I don't watch anything Hillary/Bernie related there any longer. In fairness, they have been extremely critical of Obama and other Dems that don't fit their standard of progressiveness for a long time. But wow, they are a new degree of livid about Hillary. It's un-watchable.
 
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NYCmetsfan

Banned
Ignatz Mouse said:
The reason Hilary doesn't release the transcripts is mostly because she'd want to preserve the leverage to demand the same of any GOP candidate. Doing so unilaterally would just give people raw material to quote of out context.

It would be like a hundred examples of the "Hillary blames homeowners" from one of the speeches that *is* public. a 30-second soundbite taken out of context to essentially imply the opposite of what she was saying.
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Never really thought of this. But have Cruz or trump give. Many "private" speeches?
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
NYCmetsfan said:
Never really thought of this. But have Cruz or trump give. Many "private" speeches?
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Trump has commanded some of the highest speaking fees ever:

http://www.forbes.com/2008/03/18/trump-reagan-blair-biz-media-cx_lh_0318speeches.html

An examination of the highest speaking fees ever paid puts Donald Trump on top with the staggering $1.5 million the Learning Annex paid him for each speech he delivered at the company’s real estate “wealth expos” in 2006 and 2007, more than was earned from addresses by former U.S. President Ronald Reagan and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.
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Just ask Bill Zanker, founder and president of the Learning Annex. Zanker hired Trump in 2005 to speak at three real estate investing seminars for $1 million a pop. Those went so well that the company proceeded to hire The Donald for another 17 seminars in 2006 and 2007 for $1.5 million each.
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Cruz presumably gets paid in soup
 
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TheFatOne

Member
The debate was hilarious yesterday. How anyone can come out and say either side won is lol. Both did their best Neo impressions on pretty much every damn question. Bernie in particular was hilarious everytime he kept interjecting with "Hillary did not answer the question" died from laughter everytime he did it. That man has truly mastered the art of saying jack shit while dodging questions and specifics. He does this nice little thing where he pivots the question to his stump speech for that nice 30 second sound byte while completely ignoring specifics and answering questions.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Daniel B·;201052896 said:
Oh Pigeon; tsk, tsk! You must be hoping PoliGAF readers have the memory of a gnat; as I'm sure some recall, wasn't there a poster, not that long ago, who seemed reliable, and who stated that they were aware of the contents of one of Hillary's Wall St. speeches, and it would have most certainly lost her an up coming primary, had she released it at the time?
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Probably was me; and I'm honestly surprised that it hasn't been leaked yet.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/clinton-speeches-218969

Clinton, who received $225,000 for her appearance, praised the diversity of Goldman’s workforce and the prominent roles played by women at the blue-chip investment bank and the tech firms present at the event. She spent no time criticizing Goldman or Wall Street more broadly for its role in the 2008 financial crisis.

“It was pretty glowing about us,” one person who watched the event said. “It’s so far from what she sounds like as a candidate now. It was like a rah-rah speech. She sounded more like a Goldman Sachs managing director.”

At another speech to Goldman and its big asset management clients in New York in 2013, Clinton spoke about how it wasn’t just the banks that caused the financial crisis and that it was worth looking at the landmark 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform law to see what was working and what wasn’t.

“It was mostly basic stuff, small talk, chit-chat,” one person who attended that speech said. “But in this environment, it could be made to look really bad.”
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Which, mind you, when you're paying someone a crapton of money to come to speak to your employees, is sort of what you expect them to say. Not gonna blame Clinton for making that money.

pigeon said:
I do remember that, but, to be frank, it doesn't mean I believe that guy.
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To be fair, I am a random person on the internet. Skepticism is warranted.

Ignatz Mouse said:
The reason Hilary doesn't release the transcripts is mostly because she'd want to preserve the leverage to demand the same of any GOP candidate. Doing so unilaterally would just give people raw material to quote of out context.

It would be like a hundred examples of the "Hillary blames homeowners" from one of the speeches that *is* public. a 30-second soundbite taken out of context to essentially imply the opposite of what she was saying.
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That's pretty much why it would have been really bad against Sanders particularly. A media that desperately wants a tight race + an eminently quotable speech that could be absolutely taken out of context (like, well, everything has been in recent years) versus a single message candidate whose message happens to line up perfectly with out of context cherry picked quotes?

Yeaaah that would end badly. Had the speeches come out after Iowa, or hell, in this little (futile) run Sanders had? Could have been pretty bad. Her goal is to just not release them until Sanders has dropped out, and then it's mostly irrelevant because no GOP candidate can hit her on it.
 
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Ignatz Mouse

Banned
Plumbob said:
Suppose Hillary releases the transcripts and there's a financial regulation policy promise in there that's completely the opposite of what she'd been saying on the campaign trail. Would that change any of your minds?
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Of course.

Also, if she confessed to murdering Vince Foster in one of the speeches.

People really need to grow up on this topic. These speeches are given to rooms full of people, probably hundreds in attendance. if something as blatant as accepting a bribe occurred during them, it would have leaked. The room was also likely half or more Republicans who'd love to see HRC crash and burn.

Further, she wasn't in office at the time of the speeches. What's she going to say? "If I become President, I will xyz?" It's not a campaign speech. She's not fundraising. She's not swaying the opinions of thousands of people in a crowd. There would be zero incentive for her to even make such a promise.

On the broader topic of paid speeches-- what did GWB get for the speaking fees he charged when he was already out of office? State secrets? Was he being paid after-the-fact for all the corrupt actions he took years previously? What did Malcom Gladwell receive for his speech to Goldman Sachs that warranted his fee? Favorable anecdote in an upcoming book?

Or, just maybe, firms like Goldman Sachs pay huge sums for prestigious speakers *for the sake of having prestigious speakers*. If you look at the fees of former high members of state they all seem to be that high, but most of them are never going to be in office again. What's the value then? Prestige.
 
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Ignatz Mouse

Banned
RustyNails said:
Why the fuck would you hire cab when you have Uber and Lyft. Get with the program.

Hint, you're sitting on dried microbes emanating from vomit and bodily fluids.
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Uber and Lyft are blocked from the airports.

I don't find Chicago cabs to be bad, usually. I take them to the airport often (as I am not near the trains that go to the airports).
 
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Irnbru

Member
Oh my god, I can't even at my barber. So I go to a barber in south seattle, great old guy and does an amazing job. Also has playboy magazines while you wait. Oh man, you know when people start to go on about politics but take you into a direction you never expect. This man is voting for none other than our glorious friend McAfee, he went on about how American he is and how much of a real man he is and his adventures in Belize and god knows what else. Wake up sheeple! Vote McAfee! It was so hard not to laugh the entire time but I didn't want a fam cut.
 
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