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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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D

dramatis

Member
Since the Bernie side isn't contributing anything of particular, I guess we could talk about some actually important stuff happening.

United States v. Texas, the biggest immigration case in a century, explained [Take a wild guess where this came from]
United States v. Texas is one of the most — if not the most — important cases before the highest court this term. It's certainly the most important immigration case the Supreme Court has taken up in a generation (or, arguably, a century). And the Court is treating it accordingly.

On Monday, instead of splitting up 60 minutes of oral arguments between the two sides of the case, as usually happens, the Court will convene for 90 minutes — and bring in more parties to argue their case.

Texas and the 25 other states suing will get 30 minutes. The federal government will get 35. But the Supreme Court has also given 10 minutes to a lawyer representing a group of immigrant women who'd benefit from Obama's executive actions. And that's not all — 15 minutes will go to the US House of Representatives (thanks to the Republican House majority), which has jumped in to support the states.
Click to expand...
In November 2014, President Obama issued a series of memos declaring executive actions on immigration. Two of those are at issue in this case.

One memo expanded the existing Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, or DACA, which since 2012 had allowed immigrants who'd come to the US as children to apply for temporary protection from deportation and work permits.

The other one added a new deferred action program — the Deferred Action for Parents of Americans program — which would have allowed millions of unauthorized immigrants who have US citizen or permanent resident children to apply for deportation protection and work permits as well.
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Sounds like it will be a fun case. Anybody going to be following this tomorrow?
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
It's also not necessarily a problem but I noticed that Gravis' sponsor/partner for this election is One America News Network.

Never heard of it? Join the club. It's a right wing conservative channel that hired Sarah Palin last fall.
 
scoobidoo112

scoobidoo112

Member
Y2Kev said:
Are you also a non-American come to teach us some lessons on democracy? I looked at your profile and now I'm curiousu!
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I have come to freely express myself about a race that I find fascinating and a candidate I find inspiring. Interpret that however you choose. The PoliGaf saltshaker ain't gonna depress me!

Interesting though, just yesterday people here were lecturing me on how the US is explicitly not a Democracy nor should it be, so not sure what I could teach you on that front. Ask away though! Always happy to share some wisdom! :)
 
P

pigeon

Banned
I'm very curious about what happens on US v Texas without Scalia.

The brief responses to the contraception case kind of showcase the complicated situation SCOTUS is in right now. They took a bunch of important cases set up to make some law, not at all expecting they'd suddenly be in a situation where a bunch of ties looked like a plausible outcome.

On contraception this meant asking the lawyers to rebrief on how they feel about a possible compromise, something SCOTUS has never done before. But that's a case they didn't want to get rid of, because a 4-4 would leave a circuit split. US v. Texas doesn't have that problem -- but an affirmance by equally divided court is probably still not something Roberts wants to deal with.

There are a couple of options, of course -- they can toss it on standing, which lets them avoid getting to merits. This still sets some relevant precedent regarding federalism. There's also historical precedent to order the case reargued once a new justice is confirmed, although in this case that would mean an extremely long delay -- it might mean Obama's not even in office when the case is heard again!* So it'll be interesting to see what happens.

Of course the case could also just go 8-0 like the one person one vote case did and all of this theorizing would go to waste. We'll have to see.


* I still think it's likely Garland gets confirmed sometime before November.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Officerrob said:
I'm a big Obama guy, worked for his campaigns in 08 and 12. I find it cute that I've been called a Hillarystan considering some of the shit I said in 08
Click to expand...

Ha, same here. And I think many people here are in that exact same situation. I hated Hillary with a huge ferocity back in 08, so I can understand how Sanders supporters feel.

But supporting Obama means thinking highly of his judgment, and I think seeing him select Hillary as his SoS kinda gave her a pass in that, okay, she's legit. And then we all follow Obama closely for eight years and seeing him slog through mountains of bullshit to get anything done makes us realize how important it is to be pragmatic about progress. Which of course is the antithesis of Sanders' campaign. I think it explains a lot about why PoliGAF is (mostly) the way it is. It isn't a "Hillary" bubble, it's a realism bubble. Which makes sense since we all pay attention here.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Y2Kev said:
Bernie gets props for calling Israel on their shit. I like him on that. On the other hand, he can say that because he is an independent senator from Vermont who will not be running in a GE. Still. Props.
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GE is corrupt anyway.
Cesare Borgia said:
I could see Sanders riding it out. Based on his recent comment about not needing to win NY and California it seems like his campaign is fueled off pure delusion at this point. "Sanders is right, therefore Sanders will be the nominee" is basically the reasoning right now. In the past I've dismissed Weaver and Sanders' comments as pure politics; remember when Ben Carson said he'd stay in the race until the convention? But now based on the language used and money being raised, I could see him staying in out of pure bitterness and absolutism.
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Reminded me of this establishment hit piece.
During the 1986 race for governor of Vermont, Bernie Sanders bristled at the popularity of the Democratic incumbent, Madeleine Kunin. Mr. Sanders, who was running against her as an independent, saw himself as a leader, and viewed Ms. Kunin as a lightweight.

“She does very well on television,” he told one interviewer. “She has an excellent press secretary.”

But really, he said another time, the governor’s appeal came down to one trait.

“Many people are excited because she’s the first woman governor,” he said. “But after that, there ain’t much.”
...

In the 1986 race, Mr. Sanders argued that he would be a strong feminist and do more for women than Ms. Kunin had. While granting that Ms. Kunin was “not corrupt,” he questioned if she had the same “courage” that he had. He repeatedly challenged her credentials as a fellow progressive, using some of the same language he aims at Mrs. Clinton. In the end, he damaged Ms. Kunin politically, as some Clinton supporters and political analysts think he may do in the current race.

“In a tough fight, Bernie is hardly the all-positive, all-substance guy that he claims to be,” said Garrison Nelson, a longtime political science professor at the University of Vermont.
...

In Vermont, however, Mr. Sanders was known for belittling opponents at times, rather than merely challenging their ideas. During one debate in the 1986 governor’s race, Mr. Sanders was asked if he viewed Governor Kunin as “the lesser of two evils,” given his descriptions of the Democratic and Republican parties as “Tweedledum” and “Tweedledee,” and if he thought he might contribute to her political “demise.”

“Governor, how does it feel to be the lesser of two evils?” he asked. “I think that really is what this campaign is about.” Ms. Kunin was stone-faced.

Toward the end of that campaign, Ms. Kunin said, Mr. Sanders argued at a rally in Burlington, Vt., that he would do far more for women than Ms. Kunin.

“Bernie thought I was an empty suit, and insisted that he was the better feminist because he would solve income inequality and that would help women,” Ms. Kunin said in the interview. “He could be sarcastic, but also very subtle.”

A supporter of Mrs. Clinton’s presidential bid, Ms. Kunin said she saw similarities between his treatment of the two women.

“He’s not going to say, ‘She’s a woman, she’s not qualified,’” said Ms. Kunin, who was re-elected with 47 percent of the vote after Mr. Sanders siphoned off some support. “But he can paint a very subtle illusion talking about qualifications and judgment.”
...

Peter Smith, the Republican candidate for governor in 1986 and the congressman Mr. Sanders ousted in 1990, said that Mr. Sanders used passion to create “a contrast between him and his opponent that may not, in fact, exist.” Mr. Sanders’s aides in the 1990 campaign said they would regularly taunt Mr. Smith about his positions on issues like the minimum wage, which the congressman would dispute, and then Mr. Sanders would come forward and accuse Mr. Smith of dishonesty. As a result, a running theme of that campaign was that Mr. Sanders had integrity and Mr. Smith lacked it.

“The tool he uses is his intensity and his belief that, on the major issues he cares about, there is only one right answer,” Mr. Smith said. “And it is his.”
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I don't think he takes losing particularly well.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
scoobidoo112 said:
I have come to freely express myself about a race that I find fascinating and a candidate I find inspiring. Interpret that however you choose. The PoliGaf saltshaker ain't gonna depress me!

Interesting though, just yesterday people here were lecturing me on how the US is explicitly not a Democracy nor should it be, so not sure what I could teach you on that front. Ask away though!
Click to expand...

Kev doesn't have a salt shaker.

He has hired help who mine the salt directly from the Himalayas. each grain of salt is 24k gold plated and hand placed on his food by blind Monks.

It's the Wall Street way.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
scoobidoo112 said:
The PoliGaf saltshaker ain't gonna depress me!
Click to expand...
WRECKED

scoobido112 right now

morton-salt-girl-pic.jpg
 
K

Kangi

Member
Macho Madness said:
uh
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What would be the Sanders campaign's motivation to play up an unrealistic result? Shouldn't they be wanting to downplay expectations instead?

Read some guy make the argument that they're touting their ability to close gaps so they can try to get people to believe they can win California... but, uh, coming "within striking distance!" of California is meaningless.
 
A

ampere

Member
Crayons said:
thanks. I don't usually go outside or see non-artifical light or use my voice but I pushed myself to do something I thought was right
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Can't hate on this, as long as you support a unified party in November regardless of the nom

I voted for him back in the GA primary, but just can't stand the campaign's direction anymore.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Kangi said:
What would be the Sanders campaign's motivation to play up an unrealistic result? Shouldn't they be wanting to downplay expectations instead?

Read some guy make the argument that they're touting their ability to close gaps so they can try to get people to believe they can win California... but, uh, coming "within striking distance!" of California is meaningless.
Click to expand...
This also only works if it bears out in results. "We were only down 6 2 days before and lost by 15" is a shitty narrative.
 
K

Kangi

Member
ciaossu said:
Can't hate on this, as long as you support a unified party in November regardless of the nom

I voted for him back in the GA primary, but just can't stand the campaign's direction anymore.
Click to expand...

I'd kind of like to see the South get a re-vote... I want to see what southerners really think of Bernie's "the south doesn't matter" rhetoric.

NYCmetsfan said:
This is new. Some of us have been here for a longgggg time.
Click to expand...

So how have things changed since the gays took over? I've only been here post-gayification.
 
M

Mario

Sidhe / PikPok
Something I'm curious about is whether Bernie has articulated much about what he expects to happen once these "big banks" are broken up. My own understanding of the goal there is lacking, and I suspect not many of the voting population has an understanding of what the outcomes will be either.

There seems to be a lot of emphasis from him on doing it, and the media focusing in on how he will do it, but I can't say I've seen much from his debate responses or other debate/analysis about what is supposed to happen afterwards.

What is the end goal of breaking up the banks? Do his supporters know and understand the endgame there, or is the perception that breaking up the banks is an inherently good thing without understanding the repercussions?

Apologies if this is all covered in his stump speeches. I haven't really been watching any rallies this cycle.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Kangi said:
What would be the Sanders campaign's motivation to play up an unrealistic result? Shouldn't they be wanting to downplay expectations instead?

Read some guy make the argument that they're touting their ability to close gaps so they can try to get people to believe they can win California... but, uh, coming "within striking distance!" of California is meaningless.
Click to expand...

Fundraising is about expectations. That's why there was a fundraising and phone banking dip right after Hillary's sweep that one Tuesday, that only recovered when the campaign started pushing their new, "thank God the south is over" narrative.

If people have the expectation that Bernie will just lose a bunch of states from now on, they'll probably just stop showing up.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
scoobidoo112 said:
I have come to freely express myself about a race that I find fascinating and a candidate I find inspiring. Interpret that however you choose. The PoliGaf saltshaker ain't gonna depress me!

Interesting though, just yesterday people here were lecturing me on how the US is explicitly not a Democracy nor should it be, so not sure what I could teach you on that front. Ask away though! Always happy to share some wisdom! :)
Click to expand...

I noticed, on that topic, that you peaced out when I pointed out to you that superdelegates are elected and so the whole system is actually a super democracy, maybe even more democratic than other democracies. Just look at all those votes we do!

I assume you're just acknowledging that I'm obviously right and you have nothing further to add, so good talk.
 
A

ampere

Member
scoobidoo112 said:
I have come to freely express myself about a race that I find fascinating and a candidate I find inspiring. Interpret that however you choose. The PoliGaf saltshaker ain't gonna depress me!

Interesting though, just yesterday people here were lecturing me on how the US is explicitly not a Democracy nor should it be, so not sure what I could teach you on that front. Ask away though! Always happy to share some wisdom! :)
Click to expand...

It's technically a Constitutional Republic with many aspects of a Representative Democracy

idk if you're just kidding around or if you're really pedantic
 
P

Paskil

Member
I've had gay sex, and probably would again, but I consider myself mostly straight. I don't think I fit into your gay Hillary cabal.

Speaking of the whole gay thing, it has almost been a year since I slept on the sidewalk in front of the Supreme Court for four nights to get info the Obergefell oral arguments.

oItnmVUl.jpg
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http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallp...r-gay-marriage-hits-the-supreme-court-tuesday

See the guy with cheese on his head? Yup, he popped up in quite a few places in the media during those few days, including in a camera pan clip right before Bob Schieffer interviewed shithead Tony Perkins on Face the Nation.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/29/u...same-sex-marriage-would-help-republicans.html

This one is better, lol.

QxsuUrT.png
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P

pigeon

Banned
Armaros said:
Has anyone else seen the newest FEC letter to Bernie's campaign about illegal contributions?

The list is 270 pages long! Holy shit. And it has both over donation and foreign donations as well.

How badly is this campaign run?

http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/994/201604060300040994/201604060300040994.pdf
Click to expand...

This seems intimidatingly bad but I have to admit I have no context into what FEC letters normally look like. Is there an example of a similar letter for Hillary's campaign, or a link to wherever the FEC collects the letters it sends out?
 
R

royalan

Member
Retromelon said:
Its always gotta be like that huh. Its hard to read this thread sometimes, bernie is constantly being shit upon
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As a Bernie supporter, if you want Bernie to be anything other than "Shat upon" in this thread, why don't you contribute something that's not laughable. I don't see many people in this thread shitting on Bernie Sanders for the mere fact that he's Bernie Sanders, but because we're in a primary season and it's getting increasingly more difficult (although not impossible) to make a substantiated case for why he should be still in the race.

He's tossed out his message (which a lot of people in this thread actually liked) in favor of attacking Hillary and the DNC's fund raising, which a lot of people in this thread don't have respect for because most of us are Democrats.

To cut to the point. Give us something to talk about that's not delusional.

titiklabingapat said:
Just posted this in the OT. Great article.
Click to expand...

Oh dear.

Even though Bouie makes a very compelling case, the title alone is going to set people off. lol
 
P

pigeon

Banned
ciaossu said:
It's technically a Constitutional Republic with many aspects of a Representative Democracy

idk if you're just kidding around or if you're really pedantic
Click to expand...

It's cool, if you are actually distinguishing between republics and democracies then there aren't any democracies in the world so you don't really have to worry about distinguishing between them.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Armaros said:
Has anyone else seen the newest FEC letter to Bernie's campaign about illegal contributions?

The list is 270 pages long! Holy shit. And it has both over donation and foreign donations as well.

How badly is this campaign run?

http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/994/201604060300040994/201604060300040994.pdf
Click to expand...

If Bernie Sanders' campaign does not correct this before May 11th, his campaign WILL be audited. In the letter it says that there are NO EXTENSIONS and NO EXCEPTIONS.

If anyone can spot the funny accounting going on in this document, I will give them a cookie.
 
C

Crayons

Banned
No cookies...I've already had enough calories from this wine. If I drink I have to even it out by eating healthy stuff, like mushrooms. mmm, fungus
 
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