How dare you?
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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How dare you?
I had a dream I had massive diarrhea. I blame adam and his burger king posts, honestly
Chezzymann
Member
Ted is a MESS
User 85168
Banned
Bubble tea with Senator Schumer
User 463088
Banned
Perfect tl;dr of what I was going for, nice summary
QUEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEN
So any predictions for tomorrow and preliminary predictions for next week? Here's what I'm thinking.
New York:
Clinton 57%, Sanders 42%
Trump 55%, Kasich 24%, Cruz 19%
Pennsylvania:
Easy Clinton and Trump wins, but Trump wins in the upper 40's. If Cruz comes in third here after coming in third in New York, it'll look really bad, and the party is out of state conventions where they can just give him pledged delegates.
Maryland:
Super easy Clinton win and modest Trump win, mid to upper 40's. He'll probably win every CD, with MD-04 and MD-08 being the closest ones (DC burbs, Kasich has a shot in those).
Delaware:
Easy Clinton and Trump wins. Outside chance for Cruz to win because the GOP electorate in the state is crazy but I wouldn't count on it.
Connecticut:
Easy Trump victory, he will probably break the 50% threshold to win all of the state's delegates. Modest single digit victory for Clinton, probably around 5-6%.
Rhode Island:
Easiest Trump victory of the night, and probably the closest on the Democratic side. It's the only non-closed contest of the night, but its demographics are pretty similar to Massachusetts, which Clinton carried narrowly this year, and she did better in Rhode Island in '08 than she did in Massachusetts. Who knows.
New York:
Clinton 57%, Sanders 42%
Trump 55%, Kasich 24%, Cruz 19%
Pennsylvania:
Easy Clinton and Trump wins, but Trump wins in the upper 40's. If Cruz comes in third here after coming in third in New York, it'll look really bad, and the party is out of state conventions where they can just give him pledged delegates.
Maryland:
Super easy Clinton win and modest Trump win, mid to upper 40's. He'll probably win every CD, with MD-04 and MD-08 being the closest ones (DC burbs, Kasich has a shot in those).
Delaware:
Easy Clinton and Trump wins. Outside chance for Cruz to win because the GOP electorate in the state is crazy but I wouldn't count on it.
Connecticut:
Easy Trump victory, he will probably break the 50% threshold to win all of the state's delegates. Modest single digit victory for Clinton, probably around 5-6%.
Rhode Island:
Easiest Trump victory of the night, and probably the closest on the Democratic side. It's the only non-closed contest of the night, but its demographics are pretty similar to Massachusetts, which Clinton carried narrowly this year, and she did better in Rhode Island in '08 than she did in Massachusetts. Who knows.
she wants the asian teenager vote
Chezzymann
Member
Cant Cruz take a bunch of trumps delegates in Pennsylvania? If I remember correctly it has the same system as Georgia
User 463088
Banned
Polls don't close until 9:00pm EST.
Polls close at 9pm EST.
I look forward to reading how such a late poll closing time is a nefarious plot by the DNC.
RustyNails
Member
Which is 8pm best standard time. Perfect.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Already seeing the great plot of the DNC to open the polls at 12am to discourage Bernie supporters.
The DNC has a lot of foresight to plan on blocking Bernie Sanders in 2016 when they implemented that start time over 20 years ago.
User 463088
Banned
There was already something like that because the polls don't open at the same time everywhere. I think in NYC they open at 6:00am, and everywhere else is noon. Supposedly, that was done by the Democrats to prevent Bernie from winning. Back in 1995. Because, Queen plays the long con.
I doubt on the Democratic side because that would kill a lot of the pro-Sanders viewers off and they'll change the channel. Fox might though.
RustyNails
Member
Macho Madness
Member
Republicans instantly.
Dems depend on the exits. If it's 20+, sure. If it's not, I expect for waiting just because they want to be cautious.
I just watched when NY polls closed in 08. Called instantly by CNN.
RustyNails
Member
I think they will make a call right away if either candidate crosses 50% mark in exits. So I'm thinking Trump and Hillary will be called in fairly quickly.
Unless Bill showed up at polls and caused a mess.
Macho Madness
Member
Did somebody say McDonald's?
User 463088
Banned
On the GOP side, probably. I doubt on the Dem side, unless Hillary super-duper over performs. I'm thinking they'll do a "too early to call, but Clinton lead" or something like that. Depends on the exits though brah.
My mom (68) who has a Grindr account (don't ask) also just installed Snapchat. I don't know what she intends to do with it, and at this point I'm afraid to ask.
mmm....MacDonalds.
Boba is great though.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Check under your covers...
It's ok, we'll break up the banks and gun violence will go away.
eBay Huckster
Member
i'd like to imagine the picture of sanders at the top of that article is him actually saying the "ha" part of "ha! good, man"
Disguising links to HA Goodman articles should be a bannable offence. I now need to bleach my eyes!
balladofwindfishes
Member
Ugh
The Ageism is in full force today on r/politics, thanks for reminding me. " For Hillary's sake, hopefully the bus from the nursing home doesn't break down!"
Liberals can be just as mean and stupid as conservatives. It's been rather eye opening actually. To see unskewed polls, conspiracy theories, racism, stuff like that, usually reserved for the far right crazies has decided to invade my little bubble of liberal free thinkers.
Pls don't print.
eBay Huckster
Member
Intercepted by warlords!
User 463088
Banned
See, the problem is, you're looking at this in a very binary way. Okay? So, what it is, is that there's retroactive momentum, okay? And the polls, they only pick up on about....But also, it's like this, okay?
So, there are these states, ya? And, there's also FRAUD when people can early vote. But outside of the South, which has already voted, and like, Ohio and Illinois are part of the confederacy, okay? So, when you remember that, then there's also....Reddit.
And then, when we account for Facebanking, and then.....but also California.
: nods :
I had to get at least one shit post in today. :3
balladofwindfishes
Member
What the media tells you the results are, or what the "actual" results are? The real results. You could say they were "unskewed." All of those have Bernie winning by 35%.
Macho Madness
Member
A few national polls. National primary is coming soon!!
User 463088
Banned
Also, why hasn't Tyler done projections for tomorrow!?
Macho Madness
Member
Maybe he gave up after getting Wyoming so wrong
User 463088
Banned
I mean, sure, but he didn't give up after all the other times he was so wrong. I want him to stick with it. I like making fun of him, which explains why I'm such a sad, jaded little queen.
In a few hours according to his twitter account!
balladofwindfishes
Member
Isn't he the Bernie fan who gets results wrong all the time, but made one lucky guess and got his 15 minutes of fame?
User 463088
Banned
I was on his Twitter as soon as he posted that.
Anyone want to bet what his numbers will be saying?
I think:
Bernie 54,000%
Hillary OMG SHRILL IS IN JAIL YO! -4,000% REKT.
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