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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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New Pew National Poll
Hills 49
Bernie 43

v2kxukW.jpg


http://www.people-press.org/files/2016/03/3-31-16-March-Political-release-1.pdf

Some other interesting moments there :)

I am LOVING this poll. Will quote it plenty.

There's a new NY poll by Quinnipiac where Sanders is at 42 and Clinton at 54. HE IS CATCHING UP.

I will use lanarunning.gif in every single one of my posts after NY if somehow Clinton FAILS to win there.
 
I'd be fed up too, if it was being constantly been insinuated that I was the most corrupt person ever from all sides.

And I think it's entirely fair to say this doesn't happen without a candidate cajoling it some degree.

And it's transparent bullshit to say that you're not engaging in personal and/or negative attacks.

Absolutely Sanders has allowed his people to run the negative campaign insteas of doing it directly and has engaged in a lot of Clinton is corrupt dog whistling especially lately

Not to mention that anyone that doesn't fall in line is thrown into The Establishment which has become this villainized catch all group.
 
If Trump loses WI by the margins that he's polling at, how easy will it be for him to make up those margins in NY based on that polling? Basically, if he wins NY at 52+ percent, won't that pickup be massive considering that he's probably winning a number of districts across the state?
 
I am LOVING this poll. Will quote it plenty.
I'm not sure what I'm missing in that image.

He's winning young people. Something we know.
She's winning minorities. Something we know.
There's a gender gap in the vote. Something we know.

She wins the richest and the poorest. Something that I thought we knew from exits, and something correlated with her winning minorities.

Is it that he has the college dropout vote?
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I'm not sure what I'm missing in that image.

He's winning young people. Something we know.
She's winning minorities. Something we know.
There's a gender gap in the vote. Something we know.

She wins the richest and the poorest. Something that I thought we knew from exits, and something correlated with her winning minorities.

Is it that he has the college dropout vote?

I think it's that the top numbers are close, not that it really matters at this point in time.

If Trump loses WI by the margins that he's polling at, how easy will it be for him to make up those margins in NY based on that polling? Basically, if he wins NY at 52+ percent, won't that pickup be massive considering that he's probably winning a number of districts across the state?

He's going to destroy everyone in NY. Cruz has his gaffe along with the fact he opposed Zadroga and Kasich isn't much better.
 
Just saw this on Vox earlier: Hillary Clinton wants to end the loophole that lets disabled workers earn less than minimum wage

This Monday, Hillary Clinton proposed something no major presidential candidate ever had before: paying all disabled workers the minimum wage.

At a campaign event in Madison, Wisconsin, Clinton was asked by Nikki Vander Meulen, an autistic attorney, about her position on Section 14(c), a loophole in the federal minimum wage that allows employers to gain an exemption from the minimum for workers with disabilities. Most Americans don’t even know this loophole exists, but it has been leaving disabled workers to toil in poverty for decades, and disability rights advocates like myself have made repeal a major priority for years.

Clinton pledged to close it:

When it comes to jobs, we've got to figure out how we get the minimum wage up and include people with disabilities in the minimum wage. There should not be a tiered wage, and right now there is a tiered wage when it comes to facilities that do provide opportunities but not at a self-sufficient wage that enables people to gain a degree of independence as far as they can go. So I want us to take a hard look at raising the minimum wage and ending the tiered minimum wages, whether it's for people with disabilities or the tipped wage. … When people talk about raising the minimum wage, they don't always talk about the legal loopholes that we have in it and I want to get rid of those and I want to get rid of that for people with disabilities too.

I'm gettin' excited for this campaign
 
I'm not sure what I'm missing in that image.

He's winning young people. Something we know.
She's winning minorities. Something we know.
There's a gender gap in the vote. Something we know.

She wins the richest and the poorest. Something that I thought we knew from exits, and something correlated with her winning minorities.

Is it that he has the college dropout vote?

Healthy numbers with Hispanic and black voters. Hillary winning Men over 50 by bigger margins than even women over 50. Clinton winning the white vote. It breaks with plenty of narratives.
 

gaugebozo

Member
Seriously no one else here has sampled the wonders of Detroit style pizza? Maybe it's just hard to find. I live in FL now but I'm lucky enough to have place nearby that does it pretty damn good.
I'm from Detroit and moved to Rochester, NY to work on my graduate degree. I'm sorry, Rochestarians, but your pizza is straight garbage tier. Tough crust, flavorless sauce, bland cheese. So for Christmas one year, my based wife got me pizza pans for Detroit style pizza, and now I make my own. Personal favorite is Buddy's though.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs

How has no one ever come out for this before? It seems like a no-brainer.

I'm from Detroit and moved to Rochester, NY to work on my graduate degree. I'm sorry, Rochestarians, but your pizza is straight garbage tier. Tough crust, flavorless sauce, bland cheese. So for Christmas one year, my based wife got me pizza pans for Detroit style pizza, and now I make my own. Personal favorite is Buddy's though.

Upstate NY wouldn't know good pizza if we sent it up there and shoved it down their throats.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Trump after WI has a much narrower margin of error. Even if he finishes just shy of 1237 with 50-75 delegates he has a pool of unbound to get(bribe).
 
If Trump loses WI by the margins that he's polling at, how easy will it be for him to make up those margins in NY based on that polling? Basically, if he wins NY at 52+ percent, won't that pickup be massive considering that he's probably winning a number of districts across the state?

If Trump loses WI by the margins that he's polling at NY alone will not be enough to make up for it. He's going to need to do extremely well in California. If Cruz ends up taking most or all of Wisconsin's delegates Trump is probably not getting a majority with bound delegates.
 

Gotchaye

Member
It's a combination of a lot of different factors, but the biggest is students taking out way too much in loans without a clear goal for how their degree will fit in with their professional goals and lead to a career that will allow them the income to repay the loan effectively. It's one thing if someone knows they're going to be an engineer or a doctor or a lawyer; you take out a lot in loans, but you generally start out with an excellent income. But all the people who are encouraged to get generic liberal arts degrees at private institutions and come out of school with 6 figures in debt and no real job prospects that would warrant taking out those loans to begin with? That's where you see problems. Young students aren't being educated about the realities that taking out $100,000 to get a gender studies degree that doesn't actually lead to increased earning power in the workplace might be economically insane. Couple that with jobs increasingly requiring college degrees for menial salary positions and you're effectively sending the message that without a degree, you can't compete in the marketplace of labor (which isn't always true).

It's worth noting that a lot of this is predatory. For-profit universities and similar. To a large extent it's that students are misled, not just that they're ignorant.

But also I think it's telling that you talk about law school as something worth taking out a lot of loans for. In fact this can be a trap. See: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/27/b...-school-graduates-struggle-in-job-market.html Even not very good law schools can be expensive and their graduates can have a really hard time.
 
I'm okay with Hillary being a bit of a Hawk. People use that against her...But I'm okay with someone that can get hands dirty re foreign policy

Me too, honestly. It's probably because there hasn't been a popular war for a while, but my problem with candidates like Sanders and the Pauls is that I get the vibe they'd have done nothing after Pearl Harbor. Like, even fighting Nazis would be too much foreign entanglement for them. In my opinion, it's not segregated on the world stage anymore. Being a global nation doesn't just mean economics.

Single issue voters is all I can think of. People who are in it for being anti-establishment or breaking up the banks, but don't give a shit about Bernie's policies outside of that. I mean, you'd think that'd apply to Clinton too though, so I dunno. Perhaps Bernie is netting a higher portion of such single issue voters?

Edit: I don't know why I stopped to define the term. It's not like pigeon of all people doesn't know what a single issue voter is...

Also, remember that Bernie wins among voters who feel the next president should be "less liberal" than Obama. Those voters are going to be anti-health care.

I'd be fed up too, if it was being constantly been insinuated that I was the most corrupt person ever from all sides.

And I think it's entirely fair to say this doesn't happen without a candidate cajoling it some degree.

And it's transparent bullshit to say that you're not engaging in personal and/or negative attacks.

I used to hope that Sanders would stay in the public eye after this loss, but now I just want him to screw off to Vermont and never speak in public again. He's a blatant hypocrite, and his supporters are dueling with libertarians for who irritates me more.
 
Healthy numbers with Hispanic and black voters. Hillary winning Men over 50 by bigger margins than even women over 50. Clinton winning the white vote. It breaks with plenty of narratives.
Cross tabs in a single national poll don't break any "narratives" borne out by actual results we've seen. Also, notwithstanding winning the white vote in itself isn't a bad thing, they split that vote in this poll. Sanders problem isn't that he's winning the white demographic, it's that when it comes to large important racial demos he's typically only winning them.

You seem very intent on this whole narratives thing. When really no one cares what people online think ultimately if it does or doesn't pan out at the polls.
 

Holmes

Member
His numbers among African-Americans in a national poll are so useless now because the only states with sizeable AA populations left to vote are New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and California. She "only" won AAs in Michigan and Illinois 70-30 and it won't be any closer in those primaries. Maybe California but probably not.
 
If Trump loses WI by the margins that he's polling at NY alone will not be enough to make up for it. He's going to need to do extremely well in California. If Cruz ends up taking most or all of Wisconsin's delegates Trump is probably not getting a majority with bound delegates.

This is what I was wondering. Thanks.

I don't think he'll beat Cruz in CA by enough to make this gap up, either.
 

dramatis

Member
I'm from Detroit and moved to Rochester, NY to work on my graduate degree. I'm sorry, Rochestarians, but your pizza is straight garbage tier. Tough crust, flavorless sauce, bland cheese. So for Christmas one year, my based wife got me pizza pans for Detroit style pizza, and now I make my own. Personal favorite is Buddy's though.
Rochester is about garbage plates, not pizza
 
But also I think it's telling that you talk about law school as something worth taking out a lot of loans for. In fact this can be a trap. See: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/27/b...-school-graduates-struggle-in-job-market.html Even not very good law schools can be expensive and their graduates can have a really hard time.

I didn't mean to imply that law school (or indeed engineering or medical school) was always a good idea, more that people don't accidentally wind up in law school; they have a plan that they are following and that plan includes an answer to the question "what job am I going to try and get with this degree?". A lot of undergraduate students I went to school with didn't have an academic plan until they'd already been in school for a couple years, and even that didn't address "how do I realistically think this will make me more employable." Kids are being told that college is no longer optional and so they're increasingly being pushed into expensive degrees that don't actually provide a material benefit (I'm pro-education, so it hurts me to write about seeking education for economic purposes rather than a love of learning, but that's a reality of higher education; it's marketed as increasing your appeal to prospective employers).

I think part of this is generational too. My parents, and most of my aunts and uncles, were educated people, often with advanced degrees, so there was always an expectation that I would go to college right after high school. But my mothers were basing this idea on their own experience in school, back when they could go to state schools for $60 a term, and not the private liberal arts school I ended up at for $35,000 a year. I don't think they would have pushed so hard if they themselves had an understanding of how the higher education landscape had changed in the decades since they passed through it.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
If Trump loses WI by the margins that he's polling at NY alone will not be enough to make up for it. He's going to need to do extremely well in California. If Cruz ends up taking most or all of Wisconsin's delegates Trump is probably not getting a majority with bound delegates.

I don't see any way Trump gets the delegates he needs for at this point.
 
That Dem NY poll with Hillary only up 12 has me pretty shook, tbh.

If a poll comes out soon showing a single digit lead, an outright Bernie win could be very possible.
 

Kangi

Member
That Dem NY poll with Hillary only up 12 has me pretty shook, tbh.

If a poll comes out soon showing a single digit lead, an outright Bernie win could be very possible.
Harry Enten @ForecasterEnten

@grizzmiss Q-Pac has tended to understate Clinton margins. Undershot her by 8 in OH, 5 in FL, 3 in IA (tho really 6 in IA w/o reallocation)
It's real her margin is rapidly shrinking proceed tO DIABLOS
 

ampere

Member
Worst pizza ever is definitely Mellow Mushroom. Their logo accurately depicts the ridiculous crust proportions.

250px-Mellowlogo.jpg


If you grab a slice at a catered lunch, you will not know which toppings are on it, even after taking a bite.

You're pure evil!

I worked at one in high school, the pizza is sooooo good. Never had it in a catered setting, I'd recommend going to one and dining in.


Can we redo Super Tuesday so I can change my vote?
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I'd have to see the arguments for and against the disabled worker loophole.
 

Oltsu

Banned
I kinda want to see a contested convention and the GOP giving the nom to Kasich.

It'd be a double whammy, most entertaining convention in history and probably the most entertaining poligaf reaction in history. :D
 

Grief.exe

Member
I'd have to see the arguments for and against the disabled worker loophole.

I'm not familiar with the loophole, but I have a feeling it was pushed through with wording such as, 'this will incentivise businesses to hire employees that would not normally be employable.'
 

noshten

Member
John Fetterman needs to become Senator of PA, holy shit

I just want this giant motherfucker walking around the Senate, lol
doesn't hurt that he seems to be pretty progressive as well

3530e4c460120229820f6a706700e2bc.jpg

Fetterman is a badass

As the white mayor of a largely African-American town, Fetterman wears his allegiance on his skin: His right arm is tattooed with 15104, Braddock’s ZIP code, while his left bears the dates of the nine gun deaths that have occurred on his watch. Fetterman, who came to Braddock to run a GED tutoring program after a stint in Americorps and a master’s degree in public administration from the Kennedy School at Harvard, says it was the shooting deaths of two of his students that first prompted him to run for mayor.

What’s wrong with our political system?” Fetterman asks in the ad. “The money that anyone would have to spend to run a Senate race in this country could fix the three bridges in my community, and that to me is what’s perverse and crazy about this post-Citizens United world.”

“There’s a complete dislocation between the political establishment and the reality on the ground here,” Fetterman explains as he gives a tour in his car. “There isn’t anybody in Washington that lives in a community that’s facing issues like this.”

http://www.politicspa.com/pa-sen-fetterman-releases-ad-criticizing-citizens-united-video/74010/
 

thcsquad

Member
Why has no one proposed this before?

It was introduced to encourage employment of disabled people, so I'm sure some will make the argument that fewer businesses will hire disabled people with it gone. If there's any truth to this still, the discrepancy is probably better addressed with something like a tax credit.

As for why someone like Bernie hasn't proposed it, I imagine because you have to either be a wonk or actively go out and listen to people instead of preaching to them in order for this to even be on your radar.
 
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