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PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
Nope. You just pick up the reinforced club and go to town. Wont have a problem until DLC or Four Kings.

DS2 is harder because of adaptability but pretty much everything in the main game eats blunt damage at an unbalanced rate to beating the game isnt too bad. The DLC however...
Nice. I may have to fuck around with that after I make dinner.

I still haven't spent a lot of time with the DS2 DLC, and I need to beat Bloodborne one of these years. I never get uninterrupted time on the big TV and the PS4, so it just sits there.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
I only ever play big name AAA games. Aint nobody got time for indie bullshit.
This is like proudly saying you only eat at chain restaurants, or only listen to music played on Top 40 radio, or exclusively read books that are sold at grocery stores.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Indie games are much easier to play when you have a job because AAA games are so damn long now.

You aren't kidding.

Finally finished 100%ing Hyrule Warriors tonight. Had to do battle against a horde of megabosses as a giant Cucco. This game took waaaaay too much of my gaming time up over the past year, and now I feel like a curse has been broken from my Wii U.

Now I can start working on my backlog. Indie games first, since I know I can get widdle-down the list pretty easily.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Fuck.

I forgot tomorrow is Retarded Lie Day.

Gonna be some serious trolling/Spam tomorrow.

>.<

I'm wondering where the annual Retarded Lie Day pinned post is. It's almost midnight EST.
 

User 406

Banned
Well we are on an enthusiast website.

Our frothing demand increases.

Santorum.jpg
 
Ignorance. People think the president has more power over domestic issues than he really does. Its a pervasive incorrect perception. Its the reason "Thanks Obama" became the joke it did.

I mean, that's one way to view it. But if people are being sold on a bunch of protesters showing up outside Congress, protesting and getting stuff past it sounds like they're being duped. I guess it's mostly semantics.

Well we are on an enthusiast website.

I think you'll find that many of us, especially in OT Community have long moved on from being gaming enthusiasts if we ever were.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
So, who are the Bernistas who actually have a shot of winning their party's Dem nomination?

Lucy Flores
Zephyr Teachout

Who else? I feel like we should be focusing more on races like these instead of trying to primary Nancy Pelosi?
 
So, election in the House of Representatives:

1) It occurs so long as no one receives a majority (i.e. 270) of electoral votes.
2) The vote is taken by the new House of Representatives. So, in theory, the Democrats could have the power to choose, but this is quite unlikely.
3) The House chooses between the top three finishers in the Electoral College.
4) Each state receives one vote, not each Representative. If a state delegation cannot come to an agreement on a candidate (the most likely cause of this would be a delegation that's split 50/50 between Democrats and Republicans) then they would not cast a vote.
5) To win a candidate needs the votes of a majority (i.e. 26) of states. If no candidate receives a majority then the House must continue casting ballots until someone does.

The long story short is that Paul Ryan would need to finish in the top three in the Electoral College (with no one winning a majority) to be eligible to be selected, but there would be nothing preventing the House for voting for him in that case.
If it came down to it and the president were appointed by the current House, these are the states with majority Democratic delegations:

California
Connecticut
Hawaii
Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota
New Mexico
New York
Oregon
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington

Yikes. Just halfway there.

Quite possible they could reach 18 by picking up a seat each in Arizona, Colorado, Maine, New Hampshire and New Jersey while also pushing Nevada and Iowa into ties. Still would get dwarfed by the Republicans assuming they all coalesced around one candidate.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
So, who are the Bernistas who actually have a shot of winning their party's Dem nomination?

Lucy Flores
Zephyr Teachout

Who else? I feel like we should be focusing more on races like these instead of trying to primary Nancy Pelosi?

Teachout's been around a lot longer than this cycle, she was on Dean's campaign back in 2004 and primaried Cuomo when he was up for reelection. She's got a pretty decent shot at that congressional seat since the guy holding it is a Republican who was redistricted into the seat.
 
I love that a major anti-Clinton talking point is just to say she's corrupt and power hungry and that everyone knows it without offering any proof.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
So, election in the House of Representatives:

1) It occurs so long as no one receives a majority (i.e. 270) of electoral votes.
2) The vote is taken by the new House of Representatives. So, in theory, the Democrats could have the power to choose, but this is quite unlikely.
3) The House chooses between the top three finishers in the Electoral College.
4) Each state receives one vote, not each Representative. If a state delegation cannot come to an agreement on a candidate (the most likely cause of this would be a delegation that's split 50/50 between Democrats and Republicans) then they would not cast a vote.
5) To win a candidate needs the votes of a majority (i.e. 26) of states. If no candidate receives a majority then the House must continue casting ballots until someone does.

The long story short is that Paul Ryan would need to finish in the top three in the Electoral College (with no one winning a majority) to be eligible to be selected, but there would be nothing preventing the House for voting for him in that case.

That's actually fascinating. Thank you.

Teachout's been around a lot longer than this cycle, she was on Dean's campaign back in 2004 and primaried Cuomo when he was up for reelection. She's got a pretty decent shot at that congressional seat since the guy holding it is a Republican who was redistricted into the seat.

Gibson is retiring, too. It's an open seat.
 

HylianTom

Banned
I love that a major anti-Clinton talking point is just to say she's corrupt and power hungry and that everyone knows it without offering any proof.
It's a pretty damn heavy charge. I'd love to see it backed-up with actual evidence for once, instead of a litany of GOP talking points or faux scandal names. It's one big thing that has taken me from "Favorable" to "Unfavorable" on Bernie.

Where's the damn beef already?

She could be shady as all fuck for all I know.. but I want some proof. It's especially disappointing coming from self-described progressives. A damn shame to see them giving credence to GOP kookery. At this point, I'm waiting to see the Clinton Christmas Card scandal resurrected and wielded against her from the left.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
It's a pretty damn heavy charge. I'd love to see it backed-up with actual evidence for once, instead of a litany of GOP talking points or faux scandal names. It's one big thing that has taken me from "Favorable" to "Unfavorable" on Bernie.

Where's the damn beef already?

She could be shady as all fuck for all I know.. but I want some proof. It's especially disappointing coming from self-described progressives. A damn shame to see them giving credence to GOP kookery. At this point, I'm waiting to see the Clinton Christmas Card scandal resurrected and wielded against her from the left.

Oh lord, I forget about the Christmas Card thing sometimes. Christ above how did the American people not throw a fit at that level of stupidity. Even Obama hasn't had to deal with that shit.
 

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
I love that a major anti-Clinton talking point is just to say she's corrupt and power hungry and that everyone knows it without offering any proof.
My brother and my dad do that a lot. I understand it from them as dad watches Fox News almost exclusively, and my brother reads Drudge every day, but it kills me to see the far left take up their talking points.
 
If it came down to it and the president were appointed by the current House, these are the states with majority Democratic delegations:

That's actually how it used to work. Until the ratification of the 20th Amendment in 1933, the new President and the new Congress took office on the same day (and it wasn't until March 4). Indeed, both times the President was chosen by the House (1800 and 1824) it was the outgoing House that voted.
 
I love that a major anti-Clinton talking point is just to say she's corrupt and power hungry and that everyone knows it without offering any proof.

Hillary Tells Us the Truth

This is an interesting article.

Hillary Clinton is the most admired woman in the world for a record 20 years, but as soon as she says she is running to be President of the United States of America, suddenly people say we can’t trust her. There is a gendered aspect to this that we need to confront. Politicians are constantly, constantly telling us not to trust women. We’re told we can’t be trusted to make our reproductive health decisions. We’re told we can’t be trusted when we say we’ve been sexually assaulted — it’s assumed that we are lying, or asked for it, or wore the wrong clothes, or said the wrong things. Even in the corporate world, women aren’t trusted to be top leaders. Only 5% of Fortune 500 companies have female CEOs. So when people say they can’t trust Hillary, they are tapping into the same tired old excuses for keeping women out of leadership. I call sexist bullshit on that.
 
Speaking of the House of Representatives electing the president, there has been some speculation about the Republicans trying a strategy of intentionally creating an Electoral College logjam so that the House gets to choose the new president. Such speculation is unfounded since running one of their own as a third party candidate would just split the Republican vote, but such a strategy has actually been attempted before.

In 1836, the Whigs ran four different candidates for President. Each candidate was on the ballot in a different region, the hope being that each could defeat Democrat Martin Van Buren in their region and then throw the election to the House. The plan failed as Van Buren won a majority anyway.

It'd backfire so hard though. They'd lose every Obama 2012 state, plus a ton more of them that don't have loser laws and would split the vote. Also, how do you allocate funds for that? Like, to win in previously safe states, you'd have to blow money as a Republican in states like Georgia. Huge waste of resources.

I still argue their best bet is running Trump, then telling his people to shove it after he gets blown out.

There is a candidate for President who is basing his entire potential legislative agenda on a bunch of 20somethings showing up on the Mall outside of Congress and protesting until they pass something. People are taking this person seriously. I just can't even get past how ridiculous that entire idea is. How do people look in the mirror every day and say "Yes, this will work. This makes sense!"

They don't know how gov't works. That's basically it. Also, in my circle of grad students, a lot of them are used to small protests (More vending machines! and whatnot), so just camping out a quad for a few days tends to work since the administration realizes it's faster and cheaper to just placate them. That doesn't work nationally (or even at the state level). You need real organization and strategy, and they're all (quite frankly) terrible at it. Horrible strategy, tons of people living in echo chambers, no one really debating substance. I see way too many people just using a "Well, bye" gif in response to Republican arguments, and since I know these people, I know the reason is because they legitimately don't know how to argue against these policies.

Hell, earlier today I had a friend get worked up into a near screaming match with a person who didn't think a $15 minimum wage was right in Mississippi. Their reasons were bad ("If they can't get my order right, then why should they feed their families?" stuff), but my friend walked right into it by upping the ante and arguing for a $22 minimum wage based on national inflation. Now, that might work in NY or CA, where the cost of living is much higher, but not here. $22/hr would be pushing the damn median income here, which is clearly ridiculous, but my friend just kept pushing it. It only makes the position "The minimum wage should be higher" look radically insane.

It's why I love policy wonks. They don't make fools of themselves.

So...

Hillary is sitting around roughly nine nine and a half million votes?

What are the chances she hits or exceeds her 17.8 million showing in the 2008 contest? Two of the most population rich states are still to come.

What are your projections GAF.

I think she's around a million votes behind by the end of it. She's gonna end up getting a lot more votes than poor Bernie. I'm thinking by the end of it Bernie loses the pop primary vote by almost four millions.

Hopium faded along with Hillary's patience.

I hope she wins out in all metrics. Popular vote, pledged delegates, and (what I suspect) will be an indictment of Sanders' campaign from the supers. You don't run a campaign like his (actually committing theft while claiming the people you violated are corrupt) and get party support. You damn sure don't get it from me.

Edit: I'm too new to be at the top of the page. Too much pressure.
 
All ya'll can't even take me right now. Yaaasss.

To be clear, I don't hate Mario 64 I just think it's over rated, mainly because I came to it late. Pizza is still trash, though.
 
It'd backfire so hard though. They'd lose every Obama 2012 state, plus a ton more of them that don't have loser laws and would split the vote. Also, how do you allocate funds for that? Like, to win in previously safe states, you'd have to blow money as a Republican in states like Georgia. Huge waste of resources.

Oh, absolutely. Splitting the Republican vote like that would only put all kinds of red states on the table for Clinton (exactly how many would depend on how evenly the vote would be split). For an example of how well this would work, see the 1912 election where Woodrow Wilson took advantage of a GOP split to win a huge Electoral College majority with less than 42% of the vote. But there was a Huffington Post article that argued that the Republicans would run one of their own as a third party candidate to force the election into the House.
 

Bowdz

Member
I love that a major anti-Clinton talking point is just to say she's corrupt and power hungry and that everyone knows it without offering any proof.

The best part is that that describes EVERY politician running for president. Even Bernie is, by definition, power hungry, he's running for the most powerful office in the land for god sakes.
 
Game of Thrones is good because Arya and Massie Williams.

Nope, Peter Dinklage is the only one bringing nuance to his role. Everybody else is just straight forward at best.

Now back to the general topic, BernieBro's are really making me wish this primary was over already.
 

Hey feel like laying out an argument for why Hillary Clinton is specifically corrupt rather than just leaving an academic paper with zero context and no argument from yourself.

I mean I'm going to point out that a large reason for her current success are average voters(many whom are minorities) turning out to vote for her in the primary states, whereas Sanders' is getting his delegates largely from Caucuses wherein I'd say the average voter does not get that much of say

Not to mention Sanders frequently outspends her.
 

East Lake

Member
Hey feel like laying out an argument for why Hillary Clinton is specifically corrupt rather than just leaving an academic paper with zero context and no argument from yourself.

I mean I'm going to point out that a large reason for her current success are average voters(many whom are minorities) turning out to vote for her in the primary states, whereas Sanders' is getting his delegates largely from Caucuses wherein I'd say the average voter does not get that much of say
Hey you wanted evidence, I know 18 pages is long but it's worth reading!
 

ampere

Member
All ya'll can't even take me right now. Yaaasss.

To be clear, I don't hate Mario 64 I just think it's over rated, mainly because I came to it late. Pizza is still trash, though.

What did pizza ever do to you?

Love handles? Just run a bit more :)
 

So, even though Hillary now claims she's against the Keystone XL pipeline, given the following:

Aside from lobbyists currently working to advance fossil fuel interests, there is one Hillblazer bundler — the name for Clinton boosters raising more than $100,000 — who stands out.

Bundler Gordon Giffin is a former lobbyist for TransCanada, the company working to build the controversial Keystone XL pipeline. Giffin sits on the board of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, an investor in the pipeline. The Canadian bank paid Clinton $990,000 for speeches in the months leading up to her presidential announcement. Another Canadian financial institution with an interest in Keystone XL, TD Bank, paid her $651,000 for speaking engagements.

Clinton’s position on Keystone XL — or lack thereof — may prove the biggest challenge for her in gaining support from progressive activists. Whether to grant a permit for the leg of the pipeline that crosses the Canadian border into the U.S. is up to the State Department, which has been considering it since Clinton’s time as secretary of state. In October 2010 remarks, Clinton said the department was “inclined” to sign off on the pipeline, a statement that enraged environmental groups working to stop it. On the campaign trail, Clinton has largely evaded questions about the pipeline.

If another Keystone XL bill ended up on the President's desk, how many of you would bet your house that Hillary, as President, would veto it?

P.S. Given all we know about Hillary's connections with fossil fuel corporations (see quote below, from The Independent article, who's photo isn't one of her best ;) ), is it probably safe to say that Politifact would class Hillary's outburst “I am so sick. I am so sick of the Sanders campaign lying about me. I’m sick of it.”, as "Pantsuit on-fire"?

Ms Clinton has expressed her plan to regulate fracking practices, yet held a fundraiser with fracking investors in March.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I skimmed it. Part of the conclusion suggests that interest groups have a very substantial influence on policy.

I mean, that's sort of a "duh" or a given. Everyone, and I mean everyone, know that is true.

The big question that people haven't figured out yet (and I mean experts in public policy too) is how to reduce/get rid of interest groups influencing policy.

It's not as simple as "President gets no money from big interest groups!" That's not even close to how policy in the US works.

Personally I would suggest these two intro books that do a really good job of explaining how "corruption" works (though obviously neither one comes outright and says this).

An Introduction to the Policy Process (Birkland)
Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies (Kingdon)

The second one does a much better job specifically addressing how agendas play a huge role in policy, but the first one is a generally good overview.

I think a lot of Sanders supporters think no one else seems to realize how "corrupt" the US government is, but the problem is that they don't really know the extent of it, or know enough about how to change it (I mean, if we did, it'd have been changed lol).

Part of the problem is that, in a weird way, we sort of need lobbyists and the interest groups they represent. We can't get rid of them completely because they do play an important role in how government functions, but they do need to be incredibly heavily regulated. I think part of the problem is that people don't really realize this.
 

mo60

Member
If the republicans tried to run their own candidate in the general election as a third party they won't be able to prevent Hilary from easily getting past 270 electoral votes. Like someone said earlier in this thread it will be like what happened in the 1912 election where woodrow wilson won against a divided opposition. The only reason the republicans would probably run a third party candidate is if they want to prevent the democrats from taking the house and/or senate in this election.
 
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