That was basically the Obama coalition.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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That was basically the Obama coalition.
shinra-bansho
Member
He could be winning everyone that didn't vote including all the Republicans!!!!! Who knows. You can't say for sure!
Word salad.
Word salad.
Right. I don't really have any interest debating someone fanfiction of what could've been. No more from me.
Beer Monkey
Member
That's what they do. It's all the fault of the rules. The rules of this political party that Bernie has never belonged to and which he decided to belong to for one year. It's all about the rules.
But really, it's about people that aren't white.
I don't know why, but this blew my mind:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/26/politics/isis-documents/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/26/politics/isis-documents/index.html
I suppose the excuse train and the inane hypothetical train can chug side-by-side for a while.
All sorts of cars to look at on those trains, but alas. Eventually you find your answer when you reach that ugly caboose: Bernie's complete lack of minority support. I think we should avoid the corresponding hypothetical of "but what if only white people voted?" on that one.
All sorts of cars to look at on those trains, but alas. Eventually you find your answer when you reach that ugly caboose: Bernie's complete lack of minority support. I think we should avoid the corresponding hypothetical of "but what if only white people voted?" on that one.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Exactly as Obama said would happen.
brainchild
Banned
He's been leading Clinton nationally in recent polls
The survey of 1,680 registered voters, 635 of whom identified as Democrats, was conducted between April 9 and April 13. Among all Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton by a 47-42 margin, with 11 percent of respondents saying they wouldnt vote for either candidate. Sanders beats Clinton by a narrow margin of 49-48 among registered Democrats, and he demolishes Clinton by 16 points among self-identified independents. The polls margin of error is 2.7 percent.
Among all respondents, 36 percent identify as Democrats, 28 percent affiliate with the Republican Party, and 12 percent listed themselves as independents, with 9 percent leaning toward Democrats, 5 percent toward Republican, and 7 percent favoring a third party. Finally, only 2 percent of those surveyed said they were unsure of their party affiliation.
This latest poll is the third to show Sanders leading Clinton this month. A poll conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute and the Atlantic between March 30 and April 3 showed Sanders beating Clinton by one point, along with a McClatchy/Marist poll conducted between March 29 and March 31 that had Sanders up by two points.
According to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Hillary Clinton is still narrowly ahead of Bernie Sanders, though her lead has shrunk considerably since the beginning of 2016. As the chart below shows, Sanders has been trending upward since his first win in the New Hampshire primary in February, while Clinton has been steadily trending downward:
If those statistics were reflected in the primaries, he'd be winning. That's a fact. The question is why aren't they being reflected in the primaries? Well, firstly, he's just now closed the gap; he hasn't always been in the lead with Democrats. But more importantly, my guess is that the primary rules in many states are shutting out many new voters who would like to vote for Bernie Sanders.
But again, I'm not complaining, just taking about a theoretical situation here.
Bernie's real advantage is with newer voters, so even with non-white support, they ultimately need to be able to vote for him.
Personally, I don't think there's much he could have done to take Hillary's non-white support away from her. Those voters don't necessarily dislike Bernie, they just don't see a need to turn away from Hillary.
excelsiorlef
Member
He's not leading the national polls in the 538 model.
He's also not leading the national polls in the HuffPo model
And now she has a bigger edge in the RCP model than in the picture you posted.
So no. He's not winning Democrats or Democrat-leaners nationally.
Feel what you want to feel. Don't obscure data that is easily googleable.
You posted this:
When the actual model, right now, shows this:
Check your work.
brainchild
Banned
No. I've said over and OVER again, that I'm not trying to come up with some excuse for why he's not winning, I was merely pointing out the validity in a theory.
The REAL reason not winning because he didn't do well enough with the rules that are currently in place. He has no excuses. End of story.
You said "he's been leading Clinton nationally in recent polls." There is no aggregate that has even had him leaning. Then you posted old data where the RCP aggregate had them the closest (with him still not leading) which isn't reflective of current RCP data. That's not great.
Maybe it's not the rules!
excelsiorlef
Member
Perhaps these polls exist in the same place we're seeing tons of anti-white racism?
First we say that he's losing because the primaries aren't open.
But she's winning more open contests.
Then it's about the same-day registration.
But of the open primaries with same day registration, and voter ID, she won the only state.
But that doesn't count because Hillary lived there. And he's winning the national primary anyway in some polls.
That's not true -- he's never been ahead in any aggregate, and the picture posted was from the worst aggregate at the closest the contest has ever been that isn't reflective of the race today.
He's losing because of the rules!
But she's winning more open contests.
Then it's about the same-day registration.
But of the open primaries with same day registration, and voter ID, she won the only state.
But that doesn't count because Hillary lived there. And he's winning the national primary anyway in some polls.
That's not true -- he's never been ahead in any aggregate, and the picture posted was from the worst aggregate at the closest the contest has ever been that isn't reflective of the race today.
He's losing because of the rules!
brainchild
Banned
He's not leading the national polls in the 538 model.
He's also not leading the national polls in the HuffPo model
And now she has a bigger edge in the RCP model than in the picture you posted.
So no. He's not winning Democrats or Democrat-leaners nationally.
Feel what you want to feel. Don't obscure data that is easily googleable.
You posted this:
When the actual model, right now, shows this:
Check your work.
I didn't obscure anything. Apparently my source was outdated. I apologize, I honestly didn't realize it. However, even with the current data, it's STILL not being reflected in the primaries. If it were, I still believe he'd be winning most open primaries with same day registration.
But it's not. So it doesn't matter.
excelsiorlef
Member
See we made the mistake of thinking he was just playing football and moving the goal posts. Now though I see that he's changed sports all together:
Bonus Bernie math included.
Huh, I didn't know this:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/27/u...s-from-victory.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur
How do you live without an I Voted sticker???
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/27/u...s-from-victory.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur
How do you live without an I Voted sticker???
aspiegamer
Member
The media fiiiiiiiinally seems to be on the side of "yeah this is over" on both sides. Even John King's Magic Wall Math™ perpetual 55-45 splits everywhere have Trump and Clinton hitting majorities.
Cruz getting mathematically eliminated has killed any power he had left, I think. His message has gone from "we're going to win!" to "we're going to stop Trump from getting 50%, then hopefully on 3rd or later ballot we can convince enough of his delegates that we're the best, after grabbing 100% of the delegates Kasich brings, which might not be possible" which is a pretty fucking terrible message to try to campaign on.
I have no problem with Sanders "officially" staying in, campaigning and promoting his message to let his supporters in every state vote for him, but the fundraising pleas have got to end. That would include cancelling his donation subscriptions (which is apparently a thing that actually exists). He'll get way more heat if he keeps attacking Clinton, too. Even the most active of Sanders supporters seem to be starting to see the light. /r/s4p is largely void of fundraising efforts.
Cruz getting mathematically eliminated has killed any power he had left, I think. His message has gone from "we're going to win!" to "we're going to stop Trump from getting 50%, then hopefully on 3rd or later ballot we can convince enough of his delegates that we're the best, after grabbing 100% of the delegates Kasich brings, which might not be possible" which is a pretty fucking terrible message to try to campaign on.
I have no problem with Sanders "officially" staying in, campaigning and promoting his message to let his supporters in every state vote for him, but the fundraising pleas have got to end. That would include cancelling his donation subscriptions (which is apparently a thing that actually exists). He'll get way more heat if he keeps attacking Clinton, too. Even the most active of Sanders supporters seem to be starting to see the light. /r/s4p is largely void of fundraising efforts.
excelsiorlef
Member
It was beautiful.
Had everything Jimmy saying that because he's a white guy he didn't give a fuck that a Trump presidency would cause pain to muslims, hispanics, women, etc.. because Trump would accelerate the progressive movement.
Ana went fucking nuts and started dreaming about Trump winning and taking away all social services from people and how it would serve them right for being complacent and not supporting Sanders
They brought on an Aussie guy who basically also hated Clinton but didn't guy into the church of Sanders and they all start frothing at him, literally swearing t him and laughing under their breaths as he talked.. They got so stupid that he just started talking to them like they were five.
Cenk plugged his own ego like a million times, basically said he'll admit when he's wring but he's almost never wrong. They talked like Clinton being president was the apocalypse.
Jimmy regugiated right wing conspiracy theories and said that if the FBI didn't indict, FBI agents would defect from the agency and leak the entire investigation so as to take down Clinton.
Mixed in was Cenk admitting he primaried Obama in 2012 and that Obama was the epitome of the establishment, not a progressive, oh and they called him a disaster repeatedly.
Cenk then day dreamed to close the show about Clinton get discovered having sold favours to foreign countries on her private email server during her time at the Sate Department and getting arrested right before the convention so that Sanders could win. Then they all concluded that the Democrats are so corrupt they'd still screw over Sanders.
And so much more.
brainchild
Banned
I think it's totally unfair to claim that my point has been continually evolving when all I did was clarify what was already evident in my first post about this subject.
What's really sad is that I never, ever, ever said that these rules are the reason that he's losing. Ever. Yet that's what this is being turned into. In fact, I explicitly stated the opposite; that none of these hypothetical situations change reality. But apparently we can't discuss theories without me being accused of making up excuses for Bernie.
I honestly am trying my best to have a cordial discussion with you guys, but the antagonism is just too much.
What's really sad is that I never, ever, ever said that these rules are the reason that he's losing. Ever. Yet that's what this is being turned into. In fact, I explicitly stated the opposite; that none of these hypothetical situations change reality. But apparently we can't discuss theories without me being accused of making up excuses for Bernie.
I honestly am trying my best to have a cordial discussion with you guys, but the antagonism is just too much.
brainchild
Banned
Exactly! Did you not understand that statement? It's not the RULE'S fault, it's HIS fault for not doing well within the confines of the rules he was given!!
You literally said the rules are the reason that he's losing.
Here you are, in your first post on the subject, blaming the rules:
brainchild
Banned
WTF?!! I can't. I don't have time for this. Maybe someone else can break it down for you.
EDIT:
'He could have won with more favorable rules' != 'The rules are why he lost'
They're not the same assertion. They're really not.
You've been posting ridiculous, goal-posting moving, fake graph posts since you went on your fantasy about how if the rules were different, Bernie would be winning. Here:
You then proceeded to qualify this statement when presented with data throughout the thread, and are now trying to say this wasn't an attack on the rules itself.
shinra-bansho
Member
Word salad.
You didn't say could've. You said would have.
Regardless, this is going to turn into pedantic bullshiterry. Goodnight!
aspiegamer
Member
Two funny things about that: For one, it wouldn't actually stop her, and even if it did they'd put up Biden. Theoretically if all the Supers voted Biden/other first ballot and no one had 50%, Clinton could release all her delegates to him on the 2nd. Sanders supporters would have a 100% legitimate case to obviously inherent the nomination, but the establishment knows what's up. It'd be a screwjob, causing lasting harm with younger voters that could cost them far down the line, but it'd be a calculated risk to still try to get the Supreme Court.
I'm not supporting that message, but that's what I think is most likely. No one in the establishment is falling for the line that Sanders is highly electable. One random example? In annual AP polling they ask people about a bunch of qualifiers and if they would still vote for a Presidential candidate if they fit it. "Muslim" and "Atheist" rank higher than "Socialist." It's a filthy word in the general public and the US isn't ready for it to be mainstream beyond Millennials and the hardest of hardcore leftists. It's not a thing independents want to see, which is the group Sanders is claiming he can get more support from. He polls higher because your average voter has no idea what his platform is. At this point they're offered a choice between Trump and "harmless-looking old man" and go with the later when pressed for an instant response.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I don't have a problem with Garland. He is a man with a conscious who does not think the constitution is some holy paper. On the other hand he will hold up the ideals and spirit of it. His handling of the Oklahoma City Bombing was exemplary. When others would be tempted to ignore or bend the inconvenient rules in the face of such a massacre shows incredibly strong character.
But, Republicans can't have their cake and eat it too when it comes to the selection process. Denying all hearings and other typical procedures for over a month now...
I'm not sure what the line in the sand should be. I think the GOP convention is a reasonable one. You can't see how that goes and then suddenly say "Oh shit, we should take the reasonable choice of Garland, that's the best we are going to get!".
"The average duration of the 15 Supreme Court vacancies since 1970 has been just over 55 days - partly because its become common for departing justices to make their official retirements contingent on the confirmation of a successor" -PewResearch
Waiting until after the convention is 127 days (159 since Scalia's death) of pure convenience waiting and I don't even think they should have that long.
blackaroni
Member
Hillary with that 4/4 sweep!
I haven't watched Morning Joe in years...how do y'all watch this shit? I just listened to them say "WE WERE RIGHT AND THEY WERE WRONG!"
I haven't watched Morning Joe in years...how do y'all watch this shit? I just listened to them say "WE WERE RIGHT AND THEY WERE WRONG!"
Black Republican
Member
holy shiit, guess i know what im watching today
Black Republican
Member
wow, even a mention to rpolitics, that hillary stripper poll scene though.....
Tawaineseanimation are savages
blackaroni
Member
Holy shit! I didn't expect this at all. Lol at that Reddit circle jerk...and the body pillow.
blackaroni
Member
Trump is actually talking about someone shouting...that's all he fucking does. Joe and Mika are terrible.
Black Republican
Member
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