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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam

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C

Crocodile

Member
Armaros said:
I would pay much money for a Jim Sterling Style take down of these political clowns in the 'destroy modern Sonic' style of Jimquisition.
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Isn't that what Samantha Bee's show is all about?

CCS said:
Hillary's team must be in heaven right now. They have either Trump or Cruz/Fiorina to run against.
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BrZG8NfCYAAosKH.jpg:large


Shop Clinton's head on there and it would be accurate :p
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
RastaMentality said:
Are the delegates unbound on the VP ballot? They don't necessarily choose who the winner wants?
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Correct. Not only that, but VP is usually voted for first, I believe. It's possible (though I wouldn't count on it) for the delegates to pick Cruz's VP by their own volition, then put Don at the top of the ticket.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Armaros said:
The only time I ever doubted in either past elections was Obama's disastrous first debate in 2012, but 'Please Proceed Governor' snubbed that out and the rest was looking at real polling.

The moment McCain suspended his campaign and then picked Palin I knew Obama had 2008 in the bag.
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Yeah I was a little worried after Romney's polling bounce post-debate (I believe I posted something here like "Well at least we'll have the Senate!" although I didn't personally think Romney would win even then, just that it was much too close for comfort) but my concerns were pretty much alleviated within a week or two after.

So you know how the convention is usually supposed to give the respective parties a polling bounce which cancel each other out more or less? In 2012, Republicans enjoyed no such bounce after their convention. Some political analysts theorized that maybe convention bounces were a thing of the past, as people were more committed to their candidates than in previous elections. Until Bill Clinton gave the greatest speech of all time and Obama rocketed to a 6-point lead showing no, it's still there, the Republicans just suck at everything.

What do y'all think that will look like this year? Because I could see a shit-show RNC helmed by Trump driving their numbers down. Now contrast that with the prospect of Bill, Barack, Joe, Bernie and Hillary forming a unity line at the DNC. She'll have like a 10-point lead.

Also lol if MS and UT went blue. Fucking Jesus.
 
G

Gotchaye

Member
EskimoJoe said:
Correct. Not only that, but VP is usually voted for first, I believe. It's possible (though I wouldn't count on it) for the delegates to pick Cruz's VP by their own volition, then put Don at the top of the ticket.
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Wait, really? Surely if they don't know who the nominee is going to be going into the convention they'll just put the VP vote after the important one. Nobody wants a VP that the nominee doesn't want.
 
R

rodvik

Member
brainchild said:
Personally, I don't think there's much he could have done to take Hillary's non-white support away from her. Those voters don't necessarily dislike Bernie, they just don't see a need to turn away from Hillary.
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I think thats true for many Hillary supporters regardless of race. I like Bernie just fine I just see no reason to change my adoration of Hills. She has not put a step wrong for me so far.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
I was confident that Obama would win. He was ahead in the polls pretty much the whole way. People going all 'Romney is going to win easily' were either in very optimistic or very pessimistic echo chambers.

http://electionbettingodds.com

^ Those guys have only one agenda. To make money. If they've got Clinton as the clear favorite it's because they think she's going to win.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
Gotchaye said:
Wait, really? Surely if they don't know who the nominee is going to be going into the convention they'll just put the VP vote after the important one. Nobody wants a VP that the nominee doesn't want.
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Yeah, I imagine they'd just switch the order in this case. President first, then if Trump wins it, they....actually, I don't know what they do. I mean, honestly, conventions are usually basically planned entirely around the nominee. Planning a convention in which everything is up in the air sounds like insanity.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
She's gonna win, easily. People saying any different are just obnoxious douchebags who just wanna seem above the fray as if they're smarter than everyone else. When in reality they don't know anything.
 
A

Armaros

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Yeah I was a little worried after Romney's polling bounce post-debate (I believe I posted something here like "Well at least we'll have the Senate!" although I didn't personally think Romney would win even then, just that it was much too close for comfort) but my concerns were pretty much alleviated within a week or two after.

So you know how the convention is usually supposed to give the respective parties a polling bounce which cancel each other out more or less? In 2012, Republicans enjoyed no such bounce after their convention. Some political analysts theorized that maybe convention bounces were a thing of the past, as people were more committed to their candidates than in previous elections. Until Bill Clinton gave the greatest speech of all time and Obama rocketed to a 6-point lead showing no, it's still there, the Republicans just suck at everything.

What do y'all think that will look like this year? Because I could see a shit-show RNC helmed by Trump driving their numbers down. Now contrast that with the prospect of Bill, Barack, Joe, Bernie and Hillary forming a unity line at the DNC. She'll have like a 10-point lead.

Also lol if MS and UT went blue. Fucking Jesus.
Click to expand...

The GOP haven't had good standout leadership candidates in a very long while. Normally you would trout out people like Former Presidents and notable high ranking figures. The Democrats have a stable set of figures. Many of them great orators.

But for the GOP they are all either named Bush, or are notable because of bad things. Like would anyone want Rubio speaking? Just about all of the governors that are doing well want to stay away from the shitshow that is the national GOP.

Stepping up to lead the GOP means dealing with the Tea Party in some way.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Armaros said:
The GOP haven't had good standout leadership candidates in a very long while. Normally you would trout out people like Former Presidents and notable high ranking figures. The Democrats have a stable set of figures. Many of them great orators.

But for the GOP they are all either named Bush, or are notable because of bad things. Like would anyone want Rubio speaking? Just about all of the governors that are doing well want to stay away from the shitshow that is the national GOP.
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Actually, Rubio is very flawed - but if we're being honest, he'd be fine in a GE. He'd be a good candidate to run against Hillary.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
Gotchaye said:
Wait, really? Surely if they don't know who the nominee is going to be going into the convention they'll just put the VP vote after the important one. Nobody wants a VP that the nominee doesn't want.
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I mean, they should do that, but I think the voting order is a procedural matter that would also need to be voted on. I think Cruz will push for fuckery and chaos wherever he possibly can.
 
A

Armaros

Member
PBY said:
Actually, Rubio is very flawed - but if we're being honest, he'd be fine in a GE. He'd be a good candidate to run against Hillary.
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No I mean speaking at the convention after the shitshow of the primary. Who else would be notable yet palatable? Romney? Paul Ryan?

HA

No one wants to step up and the new crowd of up and coming GOP seem to be coming from the state level rather then congress but they want no part of the national circus yet. And even then at the state level you have crazy tea party poltics to deal with.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Ziltoidia 9 said:
I thought GE polls didnt matter at this point.
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GE polls had no predictive value at the beginning of the year. But naturally that changes as the election progresses. When do GE polls matter? Typically, there are two spikes in the usefulness of polls. The first spike occurs at approximately 200 days before the election when the public has become familiarized with the candidates. We are at that point now.
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P

PBY

Banned
Armaros said:
No I mean speaking at the convention after the shitshow of the primary. Who else would be notable yet palatable? Romney? Paul Ryan?

HA

No one wants to step up and the new crowd of up and coming GOP seem to be coming from the state level rather then congress but they want no part of the national circus yet. And even then at the state level you have crazy tea party poltics to deal with.
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Oh for sure, they're fucked.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
Captain Pants said:
If I was running, I'd pay someone a good amount of money just to give me nonpartisan interpretations of the polls. It still kills me that Romney didn't have a concession speech written.
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Fox News were telling him he was going win, and win easily. I mean, you wouldn't really have a republican candidate if they all listened to the polls, not recently. Would Ted Cruz have even put one toe into this race if he paid attention to facts and figures?

He wouldn't. And he'll probably point to the fact that he's still in it as proof that he was right to ignore the facts and figures, where if anything he's the most responsible for Trump doing well after Trump and his campaign.

Cruz killed Rubio. I mean, Trump would still be winning, but not by as much I don't think, if Cruz had never been in the race. Rubio's ceiling was way above Cruz's.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
Armaros said:
No I mean speaking at the convention after the shitshow of the primary. Who else would be notable yet palatable? Romney? Paul Ryan?

HA

No one wants to step up and the new crowd of up and coming GOP seem to be coming from the state level rather then congress but they want no part of the national circus yet. And even then at the state level you have crazy tea party poltics to deal with.
Click to expand...

Yuuup.

It really demonstrates the idea that a large part of the GOPs ills right now is a complete lack of good party leaders. I mean, what senior party members are there? Two very poorly received Presidents, one of whom couldn't even get reelected, and a handful of losing candidates. Any old VPs? I honestly don't know if any are alive, which isn't a good sign. Maybe old Speakers? Nope, that list includes someone going to prison for molesting young boys, an unpopular demagogue who already failed a presidential run, a man who was just ousted from the position by his own party, and the current speaker who just recently got the position on the back of his failed VP run. There's no one herding these cats.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Haven't had time to delve into this VP nonsense but my immediate reaction is wtf. What does Carly offer a ticket? Even if we ignore the terrible business record and laying off tons of people, what does she bring to this process outside of headlines? This isn't how you turn the page after a disappointing primary night. If anything this raises expectations for Indiana. What does he do if Trump beats him there?

Cruz's only hope of winning is at the convention. Which means he has to win over some establishment figures and sell them on being a unity candidate right? Why would you name a VP early instead of bargaining at the convention? IE get to second ballot and then agree to making someone like Rubio or another establishment figure your VP in exchange for the nomination.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
EskimoJoe said:
Yuuup.

It really demonstrates the idea that a large part of the GOPs ills right now is a complete lack of good party leaders. I mean, what senior party members are there? Two very poorly received Presidents, one of whom couldn't even get reelected, and a handful of losing candidates. Any old VPs? I honestly don't know if any are alive, which isn't a good sign. Maybe old Speakers? Nope, that list includes someone going to prison for molesting young boys, an unpopular demagogue who already failed a presidential run, a man who was just ousted from the position by his own party, and the current speaker who just recently got the position on the back of his failed VP run. There's no one herding these cats.
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I think HW Bush if anything is more respected now than before. He's certainly more respected than his son, and his idea of what a GOP should look like is probably more electable than the current GOP.

But people will probably never forgive him for raising taxes, even though it was the right thing to do!

He was definitely the best GOP President in my lifetime (born 1980) and I say that as faint praise, rather than damning praise.
 
T

Thequietone

Member
Cesare Borgia said:
Haven't had time to delve into this VP nonsense but my immediate reaction is wtf. What does Carly offer a ticket? Even if we ignore the terrible business record and laying off tons of people, what does she bring to this process outside of headlines? This isn't how you turn the page after a disappointing primary night. If anything this raises expectations for Indiana. What does he do if Trump beats him there?

Cruz's only hope of winning is at the convention. Which means he has to win over some establishment figures and sell them on being a unity candidate right? Why would you name a VP early instead of bargaining at the convention? IE get to second ballot and then agree to making someone like Rubio or another establishment figure your VP in exchange for the nomination.
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Apparently they believe it will help them enough in California to make it a contested convention. As a Californian I don't believe it will, this is Trump country.
 
U

User 85168

Banned
plagiarize said:
I think HW Bush if anything is more respected now than before. He's certainly more respected than his son, and his idea of what a GOP should look like is probably more electable than the current GOP.

But people will probably never forgive him for raising taxes, even though it was the right thing to do!
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"Liberal RINO if I've ever seen one before" Done
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
chiym1992 said:
"Liberal RINO if I've ever seen one before" Done
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Not that it doesn't get said, but the only path forwards for the GOP is to drop the social stances they have now, and crap that's proven not to work like trickle down economics.

It's crazy that these things are now indelibly associated with the party.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
I think the idea behind the Carly announcement isn't "this is the action that will solve our problems." It's more "this is the only thing we have left to try." It's not a move from confidence. It's a move from desperation.

Desperate times, desperate measures.
 
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