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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam

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Came close?

No she didn't she's beating Sanders by almost 300 delegates. The race has been effectively over since March 15th

This Democrat primary has been pretty standard and Bernie is doing about as well as any "generic Democrat" against Hillary would be doing.

It's also such a weird thing to say considering Obama and Hillary were way closer than this in a much uglier race and nobody was panicking about his electiblity.
 

gcubed

Member
This Democrat primary has been pretty standard and Bernie is doing about as well as any "generic Democrat" against Hillary would be doing.

It's also such a weird thing to say considering Obama and Hillary were way closer than this in a much uglier race and nobody was panicking about his electiblity.

because the social media craze and first time voters that had no idea how elections work were behind the winner, not the loser.
 

PBY

Banned
Benjy SarlinVerified account
‏@BenjySarlin
Senate For. Relations Chair Bob Corker -- BOB CORKER -- is on @msnbc gushing over Trump's foreign policy. That's how much Cruz is disliked.
 
You really think it's democratic to make independents register for a party before they've even seen the debates? What happened to winning the center?

Debates are theatre. Policy positions for everyone have been a known quantity for a long time and are trivial to investigate since the internet exists.

Even in a state of complete ignorance, the democratic and republican party platforms are far enough apart that a hypothetical independent should be able to decide which party is close enough to their personal positions without seeing Trump and Bush insult each other for an hour first on stage.
 
It is quite clear that Sanders isn't going to win and anyone that is paying attention would have known that since last month. He also knows that he isn't going and I feel that he was confident that he wasn't a few weeks ago. He could see by the talk about superdelegates a few weeks ago. Although, he seeks to influence the party by I'm guess trying to put some of his ideas in the platform. I don't know how that works, but I guess through voting. It doesn't seem to me that will go as planned though and he might get compromises if any. I think he will make a speech, but I think it'll be very typical. I don't see Democrats as a whole running on some of his ideas; it'll mostly be economic,issues about social justice, and anything that is against Trump. I doubt Wall-Street will be a big point, it'll more be about reforms if anything. Does anyone know how exactly can Bernie influence the Democratic platform?
 

sangreal

Member
What good is a primary if it just turns into an echo chamber that can't produce a center candidate? I'm sick of losing elections. Progressives can pat themselves on the back all they want but it won't do any good.

What good is a party if its ticket doesn't represent its membership?
 

NeoXChaos

Member
ChJFsHQWUAABdCI.jpg


Benchmark Politics
‏@benchmarkpol
What happened in Ohio when crossover vote hurt Sanders far more than Clinton. Indiana may have high crossover

Benchmark Politics ‏@benchmarkpol 29m29 minutes ago
Benchmark Politics Retweeted Phil
Exceptionally good point. Sanders voters who want to go #nevertrump, Indiana might be the place that happens.
 
What good is a primary if it just turns into an echo chamber that can't produce a center candidate? I'm sick of losing elections. Progressives can pat themselves on the back all they want but it won't do any good.

How would that be any different if a bunch of left-leaning independents that doesn't represent the Democratic party vote in the primaries? Wouldn't that be an echo chamber?
 
of all years to pick to complain about an echo chamber in a primary, this is a pretty poor year
Specious. The overwhelming vote for Clinton in Maryland and New York is an example of an echo chamber where registered democrats agree with each other, while Independent voters who tend to agree less are not given a voice to dissent even if they tend progressive.

Came close?

No she didn't she's beating Sanders by almost 300 delegates. The race has been effectively over since March 15th
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

That spread is pretty thin. We're walking into an election with a candidate who has supremely high unfavorables, and that fact is only redeemed by the OTHER candidate with historic unfavorables.

I mean, I'd buy the frustration if we had just gone through a primary where we weren't able to produce a center candidate. But I think the current system clearly rejected the more radical option.
I agree. I did not say that the system we have right now is going to produce a radical candidate. It obviously hasn't. And I'm not frustrated, I just hold a position.

Debates are theatre. Policy positions for everyone have been a known quantity for a long time and are trivial to investigate since the internet exists.

Even in a state of complete ignorance, the democratic and republican party platforms are far enough apart that a hypothetical independent should be able to decide which party is close enough to their personal positions without seeing Trump and Bush insult each other for an hour first on stage.
That is not true if the choice is between, say, Sanders and Trump. Completely diverging social opionions but relatively congruent notions on trade and (prior to a pivot caused by the Democratic base) immigration. Even their foreign policy positions are similar, with distinct flavors added. Trump and Sanders are non interventionist, with Trump adding anti-islam jingoism and a "beat the shit out of ISIS" machismo, while Sanders favors love and diplomacy or something. Both have said they'd be willing to "talk" with Russia! How different are they, really, when you strip them of the rhetoric and Trumps abysmal image?

I didn't give my opinion on the October deadline. I'm just assessing the excuses of a losing campaign. But I will say I'm not going to lose sleep because people who are clearly not members of a political party aren't able to exert their influence over it.
You do not live in a Republican district, I bet. My congressman was once a proud member of the House Freedom Caucus.

The debates that only feature members from one party? Yes

The primary is not about choosing between parties or 'winning the center'. That is the general election. Independents can vote for whoever they want in a general election. Primaries are part of an internal process to choose the leader of a specific party. Limiting them to people who are actually members of said party makes perfect sense and is not a blotch on Democracy
It does make perfect sense. I just have a different preference, because I am goals oriented.

But Democrats have had the white house for 8 years and look to take it for at least another 4, so what exactly is being lost to closed primaries?
obama-map-of-congressional-districts.jpg


What good is a party if its ticket doesn't represent its membership?
The tea party represents the party membership, too. Why was a government shutdown pursued by such a large portion of Congress if the American people overwhelmingly were not in favor?
 
That's a completely different issue and you know it. This has more to do with turnout, not closed/open primaries.
It has to do with a lot of things. But in the face of not being able to increase turnout, which may backfire, the most solvent plan is to simply produce better candidates. And to take more money from lobbyists. That DNC debt isn't doing anyone any favors.

How would that be any different if a bunch of left-leaning independents that doesn't represent the Democratic party vote in the primaries? Wouldn't that be an echo chamber?
Independents are usually dead center. This is quantifiable and has been proven.
 
Specious. The overwhelming vote for Clinton in Maryland and New York is an example of an echo chamber where registered democrats agree with each other, while Independent voters who tend to agree less are not given a voice to dissent even if they tend progressive.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

That spread is pretty thin. We're walking into an election with a candidate who has supremely high unfavorables, and that fact is only redeemed by the OTHER candidate with historic unfavorables.



Did you seriously just quote a national poll to defend your statement that Clinton almost lost the primary despite being consistently 200 to 300 delegates up and a three million lead in the popular vote.

Most of New York especially city are already registered. No open primary would have changed shit there
 
Ipsos/Reuters National

Donald Trump (R) 49% (0)
Ted Cruz (R) 28% (-3)
John Kasich (R) 17% (+1)

Hillary Clinton (D) 53% (+2)
Bernie Sanders (D) 43% (-2)
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
It has to do with a lot of things. But in the face of not being able to increase turnout, which may backfire, the most solvent plan is to simply produce better candidates. And to take more money from lobbyists. That DNC debt isn't doing anyone any favors.

That's why the DNC has reversed the rule that says they can't take money from lobbyists. In terms of better candidates, they need candidates who are able to win in their districts. That basically necessitates the return of the blue dogs, who will last long enough to help get one thing done and then voted out as a result of their actions.

Independents are usually dead center. This is quantifiable and has been proven.

OHHH, so that's what you're doing. Never mind, carry on.
 

Armaros

Member
It has to do with a lot of things. But in the face of not being able to increase turnout, which may backfire, the most solvent plan is to simply produce better candidates. And to take more money from lobbyists. That DNC debt isn't doing anyone any favors.


Independents are usually dead center. This is quantifiable and has been proven.

The majority of independent already lean to a side or another, they just don't want to declare a party.

The amount of true independents that don't always vote for the same party year after year is tiny compared to the population.
 
Did you seriously just quote a national poll to defend your statement that Clinton almost lost the primary despite being consistently 200 to 300 delegates up and a three million lead in the popular vote
Indeed I did. National polls matter. The hypothesis is that if all primaries were open, accessible, and simple, election results would converge to national polls, modulo discretization of delegates.

Do not defend a system designed for Ye Olde Henry travelling to Cleveland 3 months in advance by buggy and coach to participate in a shouting contest with other wealthy landed gentry.
 

Armaros

Member
Indeed I did. National polls matter. The hypothesis is that if all primaries were open, accessible, and simple, election results would converge to national polls, modulo discretization of delegates.

Do not defend a system designed for Ye Olde Henry travelling to Cleveland 3 months in advance by buggy and coach to participate in a shouting contest with other wealthy landed gentry.

So the polls that said Ben Carson would beat everyone this year matter?

How about the national polls that said Herman Cain could beat Obama?
 

sangreal

Member
Yet he has said time and again polls show him beating her. It's amazing how facts don't matter with Trump

To be fair, I don't think that was a H2H poll. It was a separate GOP and DEM poll

But yes, Trump constantly lies about being beating Hillary in head to head polling
 

hawk2025

Member
Even their foreign policy positions are similar, with distinct flavors added. Trump and Sanders are non interventionist, with Trump adding anti-islam jingoism and a "beat the shit out of ISIS" machismo, while Sanders favors love and diplomacy or something. Both have said they'd be willing to "talk" with Russia! How different are they, really, when you strip them of the rhetoric and Trumps abysmal image?


That's like saying chocolate chip ice cream and shit chip ice cream are similar, with distinct flavors added.
 
This Democrat primary has been pretty standard and Bernie is doing about as well as any "generic Democrat" against Hillary would be doing.
It's a bit of a disservice to him as a candidate say this, but I agree. The enthusiasm with younger voters (and more specifically, their money) have allowed him to get much farther than anyone in that position typically would. He's certainly made a statement, regardless of personal opinions about him. National polls are nonsense to quote now, too. Always are, but now especially. If Clinton keeps grabbing ~55-60% of the popular vote total now, and has in the past contests as well, where are these mythical Sanders supporters and why aren't they voting? If a poll within one's own party is consistently 5-10 points off, how could you possibly take any GE comparisons based on those two candidates seriously at this point? (Or ever.)
Before I thought he was just trying to use this as a ploy to keep the transcript discussion going, now I think there's something weird in them.
There's a 95% chance is absolutely nothing, but a 5% chance it's something delightfully juicy like his wife having cashed out of the market in 2008 or something. There's nothing actually wrong with that, mind you, but it would completely awful for the message he's pushed from day one.
General Election Dreaming:
I'm shocked that NV, CO, MN and WI are remotely in play in that scenario, where MI, PA and FL are not.
 
It has to do with a lot of things. But in the face of not being able to increase turnout, which may backfire, the most solvent plan is to simply produce better candidates. And to take more money from lobbyists. That DNC debt isn't doing anyone any favors.


Independents are usually dead center. This is quantifiable and has been proven.

I got proof that you are full of it.
 
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