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[johnsmith]

There's no such thing as independents, just people that like to think of themselves as special snowflakes.

 

[Macho Madness]

Yet he has said time and again polls show him beating her. It's amazing how facts don't matter with Trump

excuse me have you seen this one

 

[Macho Madness]

Clout Political Research (I think they're a Tea Party pollster)

Indiana

Trump 37
Cruz 35
Kasich 16

 

[excelsiorlef]

Indeed I did. National polls matter. The hypothesis is that if all primaries were open, accessible, and simple, election results would converge to national polls, modulo discretization of delegates.

Do not defend a system designed for Ye Olde Henry travelling to Cleveland 3 months in advance by buggy and coach to participate in a shouting contest with other wealthy landed gentry.

You realize the US is one of the only systems that has primaries right? Other countries, like Canada, just havev a 1 day to 1 week vote amongst party members

 

[PBY]

Clout Political Research (I think they're a Tea Party pollster)

Indiana

Trump 37
Cruz 35
Kasich 16

FUCK

edit: Clout doesn't have a 538 rating?

 

[Macho Madness]

More on Clout

The accuracy record of Clout Research, particularly in Republican Primary Election contests, is unmatched in the industry. In 2012 in Indiana, it was the first and only polling company to find incumbent Richard Lugar losing to challenger Richard Mourdock in the Senate race. In Texas, Clout Research was first to find Ted Cruz defeating David Dewhurst, and in Nebraska that same year, Clout was the first to find Deb Fischer heading to victory.

Hmmmm

This poll was taken after Cruz picked Carly.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Isn't Kristoffer just an instigator? Wasn't he hinting at Sanders campaign fraud too?

1) Of course. PoliGAF itself is a huge echochamber.
2) That was a prolonged joke. It even made its way into the OP in the edit reason, in case people didn't notice.

That's why the DNC has reversed the rule that says they can't take money from lobbyists. In terms of better candidates, they need candidates who are able to win in their districts. That basically necessitates the return of the blue dogs, who will last long enough to help get one thing done and then voted out as a result of their actions.



OHHH, so that's what you're doing. Never mind, carry on.

Ok, so we agree that the DNC should warm up Obama's famous cold shoulder and on having more centrist Democrats instead of hard left ones.

Kristoffer is a mess.

A hot one.

I think Kristoffer is trolling

Usually. Doesn't mean I don't believe what i'm saying (right now).

The majority of independent already lean to a side or another, they just don't want to declare a party.

The amount of true independents that don't always vote for the same party year after year is tiny compared to the population.

Sample size of 1500. Moderate I's beat out the left and right ones.

So prove it.

Et tu, pigeon? See above. I didn't realize I would have to.

So the polls that said Ben Carson would beat everyone this year matter?

How about the national polls that said Herman Cain could beat Obama?

As with everything in statistics, aggregates matter. Don't shove outliers in my face and claim science is bunk.

That's like saying chocolate chip ice cream and shit chip ice cream are similar, with distinct flavors added.

Are you speaking from experience? I'm sorry for your loss.

I made an argument with claims, and support. Where is my gold star!

 

[RustyNails]

Clout Political Research (I think they're a Tea Party pollster)

Indiana

Trump 37
Cruz 35
Kasich 16

Fuck this shit. Is this after Cruz Kasich and Fiorina VP shits?

Edit: noooo

Trump you suck

 

[BlastProcessing]

"The @BernieSanders campaign asks for 45-day extension in filing Sanders' latest personal financial disclosure"

https://twitter.com/davelevinthal/status/725677061084446720

What are you hiding before the California primary, Bernie?

When Sanders Right-Sized his staff, he probably should have left a few accountants around.

 

[Armaros]

Yeah you still aren't getting it.

Most independents call themselves by whatever and still vote on party lines.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/24/the-blurry-lines-between-independents-and-partisans-are-on-full-display-in-2016/

If you join a team of not doesn't matter, how you vote does. Most indpeendants are partisan. Most 'self called moderates' only vote for one party for years and stil call themselves moderate or Independant.

 

[Macho Madness]

Yeah, it looks like you're mistaking independents for moderates.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I hope some disgruntled former employee leaks some juicy stuff from the Sanders campaign.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Like a hot guy in a bar, I could never hope to respond to all my suitors at once.

You realize the US is one of the only systems that has primaries right? Other countries, like Canada, just havev a 1 day to 1 week vote amongst party members

I agree. If we are going to have primaries though for general uninformed input, might as well include every uninformed voter we can find.

I got proof that you are full of it.

I'll be sure to solicit you for donations when I run for office.

There's no such thing as independents, just people that like to think of themselves as special snowflakes.

Is it really so foreign to you that people would not want to he part of a political party?

Most of New York especially city are already registered. No open primary would have changed shit there

I never said otherwise. In fact, I make the claim that Clinton would have narrowed Washington substantially, but Sanders might have taken Connecticut, and some other states with high concentrations of disgruntled white people.

 

[hawk2025]

Ice cream jokes aside (I still don't get how the Trump/Sanders FP are even remotely similar), I don't think more open primaries, or at least consistently-open primary rules, would be a bad outcome out of all of this.

New primary rules:

- No more caucuses
- Reasonable registration periods or completely open primaries; no months-before deadlines
- Keep options open for voting, including early voting
- Streamline and simplify the delegate allocation
- Keep proportionality across the board, no WTA


What Sanders can actually get added to the DNC platform:

- $15 minimum wage (will be bid down in practice anyways, let him have it)
- A stronger stance on Debt-free college based on income (sorry Sanders, but we're going to have to lean more with Clinton on this one. I don't think the incentives are properly aligned for free public college. It will only distort K-12 public education even more towards private for rich kids and cause a shortage of spots. A free public college plan needs a LOT more work and detail to even be considered at this point)
- A commitment to mitigating the impact of trade on affected industries (no give on protectionism). This one is my favorite out of all the things Sanders can actually impact. We haven't done enough about it.


That's about it? I'm cautious to give him anything on reinstating G-S, and most certainly not any room on auditing the FED.

Not sure if this would be enough for the vast majority of his supporters, but that's about as much give as I would personally go for, in the perfect world.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Yeah you still aren't getting it.

Most independents call themselves by whatever and still vote on party lines.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/24/the-blurry-lines-between-independents-and-partisans-are-on-full-display-in-2016/

If you join a team of not doesn't matter, how you vote does. Most indpeendants are partisan. Most 'self called moderates' only vote for one party for years and stil call themselves moderate or Independant.

Uh. "Leaning" Democrat does not mean these people are partisan. Even if what you said was true, to me that just says that 16% of the vote in this country is barred from participating in a vetting process despite themselves having effectively been part of the party.

I see what you're saying, though. You're saying allowing independents into the fold will not result in a more competitive candidate, which is what I have argued. Maybe you're right, then.

But this ignores the fact that issues are not plainly left-right, as I compared with Trump/Sanders. I still think the indie center deserves a voice in primaries.

Yeah, it looks like you're mistaking independents for moderates.

No, I'm not.

Ice cream jokes aside (I still don't get how the Trump/Sanders FP are even remotely similar), I don't think more open primaries, or at least consistently-open primary rules, would be a bad outcome out of all of this.

New primary rules:

- No more caucuses
- Reasonable registration periods or completely open primaries; no months-before deadlines
- Keep options open for voting, including early voting
- Streamline and simplify the delegate allocation
- Keep proportionality across the board, no WTA


What Sanders can actually get added to the DNC platform:

- $15 minimum wage (will be bid down in practice anyways, let him have it)
- A stronger stance on Debt-free college based on income (sorry Sanders, but we're going to have to lean more with Clinton on this one. I don't think the incentives are properly aligned for free public college. It will only distort K-12 public education even more towards private for rich kids and cause a shortage of spots. A free public college plan needs a LOT more work and detail to even be considered at this point)
- A commitment to mitigating the impact of trade on affected industries (no give on protectionism). This one is my favorite out of all the things Sanders can actually impact. We haven't done enough about it.


That's about it? I'm cautious to give him anything on reinstating G-S, and most certainly not any room on auditing the FED.

Not sure if this would be enough for the vast majority of his supporters, but that's about as much give as I would personally go for, in the perfect world.

I'm okay with all of this. If anyone seriously thinks Nevada retroactively going to Sanders is a show of democracy then I am gobsmacked.

 

[Macho Madness]

Targeted Persuation

Indiana

Sanders 50
Clinton 46

 

[PBY]

Targeted Persuation

Indiana

Sanders 50
Clinton 46

Did they not do a GOP survey?

 

[JesseEwiak]

But this ignores the fact that issues are not plainly left-right, as I compared with Trump/Sanders. I still think the indie center deserves a voice in primaries.
.

If checking a box no one will know you ever checked and will not actually cost you any money (as it does in most Western democracies to have a choice of party leader) is a horrible destruction of your principles, I don't want your voice to count in choosing a leader.

 

[Abinash117]

Like a hot guy in a bar, I could never hope to respond to all my suitors at once. I agree. If we are going to have primaries though for general uninformed input, might as well include every uninformed voter we can find.

I'll be sure to solicit you for donations when I run for office.

Is it really so foreign to you that people would not want to he part of a political party?

I never said otherwise. In fact, I make the claim that Clinton would have narrowed Washington substantially, but Sanders might have taken Connecticut, and some other states with high concentrations of disgruntled white people.

Sounds like a bad investment for you to run for office and me to give you an sort of money.

Anyway here are the reasons you are full of it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news.../most-political-independents-actually-arent/\

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/01/independent-voters-partisans-in-the-closet-101931

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-republicans-but-theyre-not-very-independent/

Basically independents lean to one party or the other and most independents swing one side of the spectrum or the other. Even by the graph you posted most independents are one spectrum or the other and aren't dead center like you claim.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Why would centrists be more likely to vote for Sanders over Clinton exactly.

 

[Plinko]

Clout Political Research (I think they're a Tea Party pollster)

Indiana

Trump 37
Cruz 35
Kasich 16

This is too close for comfort.

 

[Box of Kittens]

At this point, I can't really convince myself to care about the primaries. Trump is as sure a thing as Hillary in my mind. Let's get that GE ball rolling.

We're reaching the point where watching the primaries is like watching preseason football. You do it only because it's the closest you're going to get to the real thing for the time being.

 

[pigeon]

Sample size of 1500. Moderate I's beat out the left and right ones.


Et tu, pigeon? See above. I didn't realize I would have to.

This does a terrible job of proving your argument, though

All this proves is that people who claim to be independent also claim to be moderate. Which should surprise nobody, they're special snowflakes.

Here's Vox on independent voters:

The simple definition of an independent is a person who does not affiliate with the Democratic or Republican Party. Some voters choose to register as an independent, but as far as political scientists and pollsters are considered, an independent is anyone who says she is an independent....It was only in the latter half of the 20th century that pollsters and political scientists began to press self-identified independents further, asking them for a bit more information. Specifically:

Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

The introduction of this follow-up question meant that people could say they were independent and that they liked one party better than the other. And with that came the introduction of a group of people political scientists affectionately call leaners: independents who will admit, when asked, that they do in fact prefer one party over the other....

The problem with leaners is that there is almost no difference between people who identify as partisans and people who say they are independent and then say they lean toward a particular party. More often than not, we can count on leaners to vote for that party, support the party’s positions, and sometimes even donate money to the party’s candidates. What’s more, leaners consistently support their party from election to election.

This has led some (but certainly not all) political scientists and journalists to suggest that independents who lean toward a party cannot truly be considered independents, but are rather just partisans in hiding....

The very same Gallup data that demonstrates that 42 percent of people call themselves independents, for example, shows that only 13 percent of people are independents who don’t lean toward either party. By this definition, independents are a political minority, and while their numbers have increased over the past decade the increase has been very slight.

http://www.vox.com/2016/1/22/10814522/independents-voters-facts-myths

The vast majority of "independent voters" are just Democrats or Republicans in hiding. They will vote exactly like the rest of the party they are expatriates from. They aren't "moderates" at all, they're just people who think it's cool to be independent.

 

[RustyNails]

This is too close for comfort.

I think Cruz made the calculated decision with Fiorina. I think she polled well with the Indiana conservatives and their state's lunatic abortion laws because of her crusade against planned parenthood. And probably got a small VP bump. Trump needs to do something otherwise he's toast there.

 

[Holmes]

lol you guys are diablosing about Fiorina

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

lol you guys are diablosing about Fiorina

Over a completely unknown quality poll.

 

[RustyNails]

Trump needs to sic Ben "The Dog" Carson and out-Fiorina her.

 

[PBY]

Over a completely unknown quality poll.

In which Trump is winning lol.

 

[B-Dubs]

lol you guys are diablosing about Fiorina

It's what PoliGAF does. I can't wait until we have actual policy to talk about again, that's always when PoliGAF is at it's best.

 

[PBY]

It's what PoliGAF does. I can't wait until we have actual policy to talk about again, that's always when PoliGAF is at it's best.

We could always go back to GMO or gentrification talk.

 

[Macho Madness]

We could always go back to GMO or gentrification talk.

I'd prefer Diablosing over that

 

[Teggy]

Targeted Persuation

Indiana

Sanders 50
Clinton 46

That's a strange name for an unbiased pollster to have.

 

[PBY]

Katherine MillerVerified account
‏@katherinemiller
Pat Toomey: “Outrageous” For Democratic Challenger To Tie Me To Trump

Lmao

 

[Butts-a-plenty]

Uh. "Leaning" Democrat does not mean these people are partisan. Even if what you said was true, to me that just says that 16% of the vote in this country is barred from participating in a vetting process despite themselves having effectively been part of the party.

I see what you're saying, though. You're saying allowing independents into the fold will not result in a more competitive candidate, which is what I have argued. Maybe you're right, then.

But this ignores the fact that issues are not plainly left-right, as I compared with Trump/Sanders. I still think the indie center deserves a voice in primaries.

No, I'm not.

I'm okay with all of this. If anyone seriously thinks Nevada retroactively going to Sanders is a show of democracy then I am gobsmacked.

They can have a voice. Register with the party that most closely aligns with your beliefs and vote. They are choosing to exclude themselves from the party when they register. This isn't something being imposed.

 

[aspiegamer]

http://www.salon.com/2016/04/28/thi...pac_aimed_at_midterm_congressional_elections/

Holy crap! Some people who get it! This is what the impact of Sanders' campaign needs to be.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Perfect.

Jesus. White male with fedora and soul patch. Nailed it!

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

They can have a voice. Register with the party that most closely aligns with your beliefs and vote. They are choosing to exclude themselves from the party when they register. This isn't something being imposed.

Not to mention that that's how you change that party to align with your beliefs.

 

[B-Dubs]

http://www.salon.com/2016/04/28/thi...pac_aimed_at_midterm_congressional_elections/

Holy crap! Some people who get it! This is what the impact of Sanders' campaign needs to be.

So long as they don't just go around primarying dems and don't turn into a progressive tea party I am totally behind this.

 

[sc0la]

Jesus. White male with fedora and soul patch. Nailed it!

ITS A TRILBY

#feelthepedantry

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

ITS A TRILBY

#feelthepedantry

But that is a fedora.

 

[sc0la]

Did they not do a GOP survey?

Indiana

Trump 60%
Hoop/Basket 20%
"Basketball Ring" 15%
Cruz 3%

But that is a fedora.

Shhhh... your establishment lies won't fool me.

 

[sangreal]

This guy is having a meltdown on CNN

 

[Armaros]

This guy is having a meltdown on CNN

I was just watching that while waiting for my coffee.

 

[User 85168]

Benchmark Politics ‏@benchmarkpol 2m2 minutes ago
Indiana Benchmarks done. Clinton 50.5% - Sanders 49.5%. Writeups to come from @icoggins1. Sneak peek at counties.

s

Spoiler

JK

 

[Macho Madness]

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Trump's big sweep of Pennsylvania unpledged delegates obviates the need for a win in Indiana

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/29/upshot/donald-trump-doesnt-need-indiana-anymore.html?ref=topics

Sad!

 

[Bowdz]

This guy is having a meltdown on CNN

Lol I just saw it.

Steve Deace is such a sack of shit. As soon as I saw the panel, I knew he'd be the Cruz supporter. Ugly Ted attracts other uggos.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Pro-Cruz pollster with no track record publishes poll with Trump leading after Trump has started outperforming his polls due to Cruz and Kasich fans being discouraged.

Obviously time to panic.

 

[Macho Madness]

s

Spoiler

JK

Keep in mind they predicted Rhode Island to be about that too.

And Bernie won it by:

Not as easy to predict open (or even semi-open) primaries.

 

[Box of Kittens]

I think Cruz made the calculated decision with Fiorina. I think she polled well with the Indiana conservatives and their state's lunatic abortion laws because of her crusade against planned parenthood. And probably got a small VP bump. Trump needs to do something otherwise he's toast there.

The most recent abortion law that's been in the news is actually pretty unpopular. The WTHR/HPI poll had support at 37% with opposition at 56%. Now of course it's going to be more popular among Republicans than among voters at large, but still Indiana is one of those states where the alliance between religious conservatives and business conservatives can be somewhat precarious. Mitch Daniels kept them in relative harmony but Mike Pence has been somewhat fraying the ties by playing so hard to the former against the interests of the latter.

Long story short, Cruz is definitely taking a risk here. Of course he may have felt compelled to because his only hope is to win Indiana (and even then he'll need to make up ground in California).

 

[Aaron Strife]

Some friend on fb pondered the question of a 4-way race between Clinton, Cruz, Trump and Sanders and some of the comments were supportive of the idea because it would "give them a choice" outside of the two-party system.

I think it's really interesting that people feel their options are greatly expanded by being able to choose between 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans as opposed to just one each.