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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam

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E

excelsiorlef

Member
Man this cycle is going to be fun. People are all of a sudden starting to get "confused" about why minorities are afraid of a Trump presidency.
 
I

itschris

Member
I thought this recent FiveThirtyEight article was pretty interesting and informative:

A Sanders Comeback Would Be Unprecedented

Historically speaking, Democratic primary races do not have many twists and turns. Rather, the eventual winner tends to take an early lead — on or before Super Tuesday — and stay there. Runner-ups can kick for a while, but they tend to concede the race by February or early March.

...

Sure, you may say, it’s unlikely, but he still could come back, right? I looked back through every Democratic race since 1972 to see if there’s any precedent for a late-stage political revolution. For each candidate, I charted what percentage of remaining delegates he would have needed in order to clinch the nomination at each point in the race — let’s call this a candidate’s “comeback score.” So each candidate starts at 50 percent, and as he wins (or loses) contests, his comeback score falls (or rises). Higher comeback scores are bad.

To be kind to the Sanders camp, I ignored superdelegates and demographics.

beckman-comeback-2.png


The result is pretty striking: After the early days of the campaign, no underdog has ever won the Democratic nomination. A true come-from-behind victory would show up on this chart as a green line (winners) wandering above the 50 percent line (falling behind) before crossing back over (catching up) and veering toward the bottom of the chart. Instead, after the mad scramble for the first 10 percent of delegates, no candidate ever crosses over the 50 percent line. That is, the king stay the king. (Of course, there haven’t been that many Democratic primaries in the modern era, so I wouldn’t interpret this data as some type of iron-clad rule.)

The reason for this is pretty simple: Proportional allocation of delegates makes comebacks really, really hard. You can’t just notch wins in a string of states, as Sanders did in late March and early April. You have to start consistently trouncing your opponent by large margins in every contest. You need, well, a political revolution.
Click to expand...

More at the link.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Literally no one is talking about Fuckorina anymore. I can't believe they thought this would be a thing. I am assplode.

Even Politico, true shitheap of the internet, has like one article on how bad she is today and that's it.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Y2Kev said:
Literally no one is talking about Fuckorina anymore. I can't believe they thought this would be a thing. I am assplode.

Even Politico, true shitheap of the internet, has like one article on how bad she is today and that's it.
Click to expand...

Everybody knows it's a desperate move. Not much to write about. Now if Cruz wind Indiana expect a lot of writing about her.
 
J

jaekeem

Member
Y2Kev said:
Literally no one is talking about Fuckorina anymore. I can't believe they thought this would be a thing. I am assplode.

Even Politico, true shitheap of the internet, has like one article on how bad she is today and that's it.
Click to expand...

That should tell you what a boneheaded move it was.

He did it to control the news cycle before his Thermopylae of Indiana, but no one remotely important gives a shit, lol.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
So in 1804 we passed the convoluted 12th amendment. I did not know much about it, but I found out it's a clusterfuck.

Basically, let's say a 3rd party enters the race with enough supporters to win some states, thus creating the "no candidate has 270" problem.

Then this is what happens:

  • Only the top three vote getters in the electoral college are to be considered.
  • Regardless of its population and number of representatives, each state delegation in the House has only one vote, for a total of 50 votes. The District of Columbia, which sends a nonvoting delegate to the House, has no vote.
  • The state's choice is determine by a vote within its delegation. If that vote is a tie, the state loses its vote.
  • A winning candidate must receive the votes of a majority-26-of states.
  • There is no limit to the number of ballots in the House. If the House fails to choose a President by Inauguration Day, January 20, the Twentieth Amendment requires that the Vice-President-elect, provided that the Senate has chosen one, serves as President until the House makes it choice. The Senate follows these rules in its selection of the Vice-President:
  • The choice is between the top two vice-presidential vote-getters in the Electoral College.
  • Each senator has one vote, for a total of 100 votes (no vote for the District of Columbia).
  • A Vice-President must be elected by a majority-51-of the whole Senate.
Click to expand...
http://lwv.org/content/who-will-elect-president-electoral-college-system

So yeah, for some unknown reason they recreated the senate in the house to have them elect the president from the top 3 choices. Even though the fucking senate is already basically the same idea. Plus the Senate elects the VP.

Here is the "fun" part, the house breakdown by state majorities right now and from when the dems had majority in the last 2 years of the Bush administration.

110th Congress - 23R/20D/3S
114th Congress (Right Now) - 33R/8D/3S

Yes, even when the dems had majority of the house, they did not have the majority control of the states.

I'm by no means an expert, and please correct me if i'm wrong. But, this looks like a serious mess. Especially if the House is supposed to more generally represent the population and the senate represent the states.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
So how does the GOP plan on pushing this bathroom garbage when their candidate for president is pro-trans (or at least, doesn't seem to care at all)?

Has a party's position ever contrasted so heavily with their presidential candidate before? Usually the party adopts the positions of their candidate... but this time they kind of can't and it's going to be pretty jarring for them to have such a contrast on this issue.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Suikoguy said:
So in 1804 we passed the convoluted 12th amendment. I did not know much about it, but I found out it's a clusterfuck.

Basically, let's say a 3rd party enters the race with enough supporters to win some states, thus creating the "no candidate has 270" problem.

Then this is what happens:


http://lwv.org/content/who-will-elect-president-electoral-college-system

So yeah, for some unknown reason they recreated the senate in the house to have them elect the president from the top 3 choices. Even though the fucking senate is already basically the same idea. Plus the Senate elects the VP.

Here is the "fun" part, the house breakdown by state majorities right now and from when the dems had majority in the last 2 years of the Bush administration.

110th Congress - 23R/20D/3S
114th Congress (Right Now) - 33R/8D/3S

Yes, even when the dems had majority of the house, they did not have the majority control of the states.

I'm by no means an expert, and please correct me if i'm wrong. But, this looks like a serious mess. Especially if the House is supposed to more generally represent the population and the senate represent the states.
Click to expand...

It's a yuge mess, and likely not fixable in the short-term timeline, if ever. I guess voters in individual states could elect local legislators who'll pass laws requiring their House Reps to vote with their state or with the national popular vote, but I haven't researched if there's any constitutional problems with such an approach.

(And you'll find that this is why, when discussing electoral victory, I typically refer to the Republicans "getting to 269" instead of 270. 269 is game over, GOP wins. I think of it as the gamemakers telling the GOP, "hey, you're at a mathematical disadvantage.. for you, we'll lower the victory bar one single notch.")
 
F

FloydtheFathead

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Browns are killing it.

Teams are really passing on the highest rated player on the draft because he smoked weed? Come the fuck on. Isn't Bosa a huge druggie?
Click to expand...
We'll fuck it up like we always do :(

Box of Kittens said:
I never really understood watching the draft (since it's mostly just talking heads filling dead air) until I lived in Ohio and it was explained to me that the draft is basically the Browns' Super Bowl.
Click to expand...
Because it is.. And we see the busts go on in a few months.

I'm glad we were able to trade down still after the Tunsil news almost fucked everything up for the Browns.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
Suikoguy said:
So in 1804 we passed the convoluted 12th amendment. I did not know much about it, but I found out it's a clusterfuck.

Basically, let's say a 3rd party enters the race with enough supporters to win some states, thus creating the "no candidate has 270" problem.

Then this is what happens:


http://lwv.org/content/who-will-elect-president-electoral-college-system

So yeah, for some unknown reason they recreated the senate in the house to have them elect the president from the top 3 choices. Even though the fucking senate is already basically the same idea. Plus the Senate elects the VP.

Here is the "fun" part, the house breakdown by state majorities right now and from when the dems had majority in the last 2 years of the Bush administration.

110th Congress - 23R/20D/3S
114th Congress (Right Now) - 33R/8D/3S

Yes, even when the dems had majority of the house, they did not have the majority control of the states.

I'm by no means an expert, and please correct me if i'm wrong. But, this looks like a serious mess. Especially if the House is supposed to more generally represent the population and the senate represent the states.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I ended up reading up on the twelfth amendment last year, as im pretty sure it's going to be damn important in this season of Veep.

Seriously. Everyone watch Veep.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I love how this Cruz/Kasich alliance went:

1) Alliance clearly made
2) Public reacts poorly, turns Indiana voters against Cruz
3) Cruz denies there was ever an alliance
4) Cruz looks like a huge liar

I'm not sure how this could have gone any better.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
balladofwindfishes said:
So how does the GOP plan on pushing this bathroom garbage when their candidate for president is pro-trans (or at least, doesn't seem to care at all)?

Has a party's position ever contrasted so heavily with their presidential candidate before? Usually the party adopts the positions of their candidate... but this time they kind of can't and it's going to be pretty jarring for them to have such a contrast on this issue.
Click to expand...

Well, in 1948, the Republicans held a majority in Congress that was dominated by their conservative Midwestern/Western wing while their presidential nominee, Tom Dewey, came from the liberal Eastern wing. Harry Truman took advantage of this by calling a special session of Congress to pass the Republican (i.e. Dewey's) platform. The conservatives, led by Bob Taft, blocked all action during the session, contributing to Truman's successful characterization of the "Do-Nothing Congress" during his comeback presidential bid.
 
C

Crocodile

Member
Plinko said:
I love how this Cruz/Kasich alliance went:

1) Alliance clearly made
2) Public reacts poorly, turns Indiana voters against Cruz
3) Cruz denies there was ever an alliance
4) Cruz looks like a huge liar

I'm not sure how this could have gone any better.
Click to expand...

5) Cruz loses Indiana

We'll have to wait and see if that comes to pass though
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
The hardcore British lefties seem to think that some of Corbyn's people calling Hitler a Zionist is... a conspiracy against Corbyn? I'm glad Sanders fans aren't like this.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The hardcore British lefties seem to think that some of Corbyn's people calling Hitler a Zionist is... a conspiracy against Corbyn? I'm glad Sanders fans aren't like this.
Click to expand...

The Bernie crew have their own special rabbit holes they go down.

I can't even imagine how they'll react when the FBI recommends that no charges will be given to Clinton. They're so far down the hole, they'll probably believe every news source and government body in the country is in the pocket of Hillary and everyone around them is in on it too. On one hand, they believe Hillary to be a criminal mastermind with her claws in every inch of the country, but on the other hand she's too incompetent to run the country.

Even now, you mention "the DNC wouldn't have even let her run if there was any doubt she'd not be indicted" or "here's a list of reputable journalists and legal experts saying the chances of her being indicted are near 0" and they just put their fingers in their ears and yell and scream and pretend everyone is out to get some random senator from Vermont.

They also don't seem to realize Hillary being indicted
- Doesn't mean Sanders is next in line to be the candidate
- That the Democrats would be so embarrassed by it, they'd likely lose the election, badly, even with Sanders running.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
HylianTom said:
Yeah, Jonathan Karl (ABC) apparently got a heads-up and tweeted it. I'm skeptical about Pence moving the needle all that much.
Click to expand...

Interesting. Yeah, I agree at least to the extent that some are hoping this will make it a repeat of Wisconsin. Trump's got his swagger back and we are less than a week out.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Kristoffer said:
Macho, I'm pretty sure the gentrification conversation was the most substantive discussion we've had in at least two weeks.
Click to expand...
There's enough material on the topic for there to be a gentrification megathread, to be honest. It's happening on a wide scale, it's going to be an issue for a long time, and it touches soooo many faultlines (racial, economic, zoning/planning, environmental, cultural, energy, etc).
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
balladofwindfishes said:
So how does the GOP plan on pushing this bathroom garbage when their candidate for president is pro-trans (or at least, doesn't seem to care at all)?

Has a party's position ever contrasted so heavily with their presidential candidate before? Usually the party adopts the positions of their candidate... but this time they kind of can't and it's going to be pretty jarring for them to have such a contrast on this issue.
Click to expand...

1864 was another interesting case. The Democrats were split between War Democrats, who advocated a military victory over the Confederacy, and Peace Democrats, who argued for a negotiated peace. The Peace Democrats wrote the party's platform, but the nominee was General George McClellan, a War Democrat (his running mate, George Pendleton, was a Peace Democrat). They lost to Lincoln in a landslide.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Crap. I don't know if this will help but I'm afraid a win will produce more air time for Carly.

Macho please cross over and vote trump.
 
M

Maledict

Member
HylianTom said:
Yeah, Jonathan Karl (ABC) apparently got a heads-up and tweeted it. I'm skeptical about Pence moving the needle all that much.
Click to expand...

It only needs to move a small amount though - between this endorsement, the Kasich alliance and Carly it's possible he's gained the couple of percent he needs to overtake Trump. Trump still has other means of winning of curse - but it would be better if he could it away on Tuesday for good.

The interesting thing to me is that I don't see how Cruz gets it now if Donald doesn't win on the first ballot. Yet he has a lot of support from delegates, but I honestly get the impression he's alienated too many people to get to the winning number as well. We may end up seeing that white knight ride in after all.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Hmm, there are still a lot of people in the House who voted to make a serial child rapist Speaker:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seniority_in_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives

I wonder if the Dems will dare...
Click to expand...

His Teacher pension was revoked.

An Illinois state senator is urging the state to strip Dennis Hastert of the taxpayer-funded pension he receives from when he was state legislator.

The former U.S. House Speaker was sentenced to 15 months in prison Wednesday in a hush-money case that revealed accusations he sexually abused teenagers while coaching high school wrestling in Yorkville, Illinois.

State Sen. Jennifer Bertino-Tarrant sent a letter Thursday to the General Assembly Retirement System calling Hastert a "predator who harmed the lives of innocent students" and urging it to immediately revoke his $28,000-a-year pension.

But Tim Blair, who oversees the system, tells The (Aurora) Beacon-News that Hastert won't lose the pension because his crimes are unrelated to his time as a legislator.
Click to expand...

But it sounds like they won't do anything else.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/lawmaker-calls-illinois-revoke-hasterts-pension-38759128
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Mark Halperin is a fucking moron who thinks he's being "objective" when he says shit like that.

Trump will probably lose California by the biggest margin ... possibly ever.

That's a fucking fact.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
LOL even Pence's people are like "eeeeeeuuugghhhhhhhh"

Eliana Johnson @elianayjohnson Source close to Pence say gov will endorse Cruz at top of the hr. Another source tells me the guv "knows what a bad idea I think it is."
Click to expand...
 
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