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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam

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H

Holmes

Member
Wasn't Wisconsin the only state whose governor endorsed Cruz and he won the state? I think Wisconsin Republicans like Walker fwiw. I know Bryant endorsed Trump in Mississippi and that amounted to a whole lot of nothing.
 
D

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
CCS said:
Okay, Clinton/Trump is definitely happening at this point.

Yaaaaaaaaaaas
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Don't put any stock into an ARG poll.

That said Clinton is at about 99% and Trump well is over 95% in terms of happening. Pretty much everything would have to fall apart for Trump to not get there.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Holmes said:
Wasn't Wisconsin the only state whose governor endorsed Cruz and he won the state? I think Wisconsin Republicans like Walker fwiw. I know Bryant endorsed Trump in Mississippi and that amounted to a whole lot of nothing.
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Mike Pence is a hack but he has a lot of sway in the social conservative movement.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
I would think the D's would not want to do an all white ticket with Kaine but with a depleted bench it looks like that's not going to be possible.
 
C

CCS

Banned
If you'd told me a year ago that the Republicans would be pinning their hopes on Cruz/Fiorina I'd have laughed in your face. This is all just too beautiful.
 
S

Slayven

Member
euphemism said:
That never mattered, tyt has become so depressing over the last year. They absolutely sacrificed any level of objective reporting and even tried to own it by calling all serious reporting with any objectivity "false balance". They became essentially a propoganda arm of a certain demographic and it was clear way even before they started calling Bernie the winner of every dem debate and spewing right wing talking points. Then they went all the way down the rabbit hole and tied their success to his movement through wolf pac (which I actually supported), pushed shoddy math, or even repeatedly yelled about general election h2h numvers as if they mean anything 7 months out.
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They are so bad, Anna saying they should elect Trump just to teach people listen was so cringey
 
S

Skiptastic

Member
Macho Madness said:
Fuck Ted

Fuck Pence
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Seriously. If Cruz was looking to win over moderate Hoosier Republicans, this doesn't help.

In fact, this would make a lot more sense if it was Kasich in Indiana getting Pence's endorsement. Kasich naturally gets the moderate Republicans and then might pull over some more conservative GOP Hoosiers with Pence's endorsement.

I don't see how this helps Cruz in Indiana, with Pence being disliked by moderate GOP Hoosiers. He would have needed My Man Mitch's endorsement to swing people his way.
 
OuterLimits

OuterLimits

Member
NeoXChaos said:
ARG is garbage. Wait for Sunday for more polls.
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They are off big time in some states like Wisconsin where they had Trump winning. However, they nailed Maryland showing Trump with 55%(he got 54%). Most other polls had Trump doing worse in Maryland and losing the DC suburbs badly.(He won even there)

Apparently Pence will endorse Cruz. Not sure how much impact that will have but it should help Cruz some.

Having said that, Trump has 994 delegates now, and needs less than 50% of the remaining delegates. Even if he loses Indiana, he can get delegates there if he wins some districts. New Mexico, Washington, and Oregon are proportional so he will get delegates there. New Jersey and West Virginia are good states for him, and NJ is winner take all at 51.

So Pence endorsing Cruz seems like a strange gamble. Isn't Pence running in a tight reelection race? Would have been smarter to stay out. I guess the GOP likely forced him to do it.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
Hillary is conceding Indiana, she's not campaigning at all there? That's what MSNBC is reporting. I thought she was leading there.
 
D

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
Honestly the only plausible path is for Cruz to win Indiana / Nebraska / Montana / South Dakota (which are all WTA or near WTA) and keep Trump from doing too well in Oregon / Washington / New Mexico (this part less important because its proportional but every delegate counts).

And then deliver the biggest shocker of the election season by winning New Jersey (or Kasich winning it which seems more implausible).

And then would have to not get crushed in California and figure out a way to plausibly pick off a bunch of districts.

Basically its not happening but if it did god it'd be glorious because Chris Christie would be the person who kept Trump from getting to the finish line.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Suikoguy said:
So in 1804 we passed the convoluted 12th amendment. I did not know much about it, but I found out it's a clusterfuck.

Basically, let's say a 3rd party enters the race with enough supporters to win some states, thus creating the "no candidate has 270" problem.

Then this is what happens:


http://lwv.org/content/who-will-elect-president-electoral-college-system

So yeah, for some unknown reason they recreated the senate in the house to have them elect the president from the top 3 choices. Even though the fucking senate is already basically the same idea. Plus the Senate elects the VP.

Here is the "fun" part, the house breakdown by state majorities right now and from when the dems had majority in the last 2 years of the Bush administration.

110th Congress - 23R/20D/3S
114th Congress (Right Now) - 33R/8D/3S

Yes, even when the dems had majority of the house, they did not have the majority control of the states.

I'm by no means an expert, and please correct me if i'm wrong. But, this looks like a serious mess. Especially if the House is supposed to more generally represent the population and the senate represent the states.
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This sort of thing is what I'm thinking about when I say our presidential elections are even more convoluted than people realize. Like, even people who are aware that the House picks the President in the event no one can reach 270 don't generally know that each state, not each Representative, gets one vote. Prior to the passage of the 20th Amendment in 1933 it was even worse because the contingent election took place in the outgoing House of Representatives.

The one contingent election that took place under the 12th Amendment was in 1824 and resulted in John Quincy Adams, who had finished second in both the popular and electoral vote, being elected over Andrew Jackson, who had finished first in both. This situation had come about because the old Republican Party ("Democratic-Republicans"), who at that point was the only major party left, descended into factionalism and infighting and could not agree on a presidential candidate, resulting in a four way race where each of the candidates were technically from the same party. The factions that contested this election eventually coalesced into what became the Democratic and Whig parties.

As bad as the procedure laid out in the 12th Amendment is, it actually was an improvement over the original system, in which electors cast both their ballots for President, with the first place finisher becoming President and the second place finisher becoming Vice President. This worked fine when Washington was the consensus choice for President, but broke down afterwards when presidential elections began to be contested on a partisan basis. The 1796 election resulted in a Federalist President (Adams) and a Republican Vice President (Jefferson) because the election was close and too many Federalist electors did not cast their second ballot for Adams's running mate, Charles Pinckney. In 1800 the election was sent to the House of Representatives because every Republican elector cast their ballots for Jefferson and his running mate, Aaron Burr (yes, that Aaron Burr), resulting in a tie. There was an effort in the outgoing (Federalist controlled) House to elect Burr over Jefferson, and it took 36 ballots to resolve the election in favor of Jefferson. The 12th Amendment was then a response to these problems.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
nature boy said:
Halperin is a tool that will do anything for access.

Trump is doomed in the GE and will bring down the Senate and weaken the House.
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Worse yet he points to Arnold winning the state as evidence. As if we needed more examples that he's a dumbass who will do anything for access to a candidate.

Hispanic voter registration in California is insane right now. They are registering and getting ready to vote in mass, despite the fact that it won't even be a competitive state.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Skiptastic said:
Seriously. If Cruz was looking to win over moderate Hoosier Republicans, this doesn't help.

In fact, this would make a lot more sense if it was Kasich in Indiana getting Pence's endorsement. Kasich naturally gets the moderate Republicans and then might pull over some more conservative GOP Hoosiers with Pence's endorsement.

I don't see how this helps Cruz in Indiana, with Pence being disliked by moderate GOP Hoosiers. He would have needed My Man Mitch's endorsement to swing people his way.
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That's my read as well. Pence is a pretty divisive figure among Indiana Republicans, and the ones he appeals to are likely to be Cruz supporters anyway. Between this and the negative reaction to the Cruz/Kasich pseudo-alliance I expect Trump to take the state, but we'll see on Tuesday.

EDIT: Especially given how lukewarm this "endorsement" is.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
chiym1992 said:
Tom Perez
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Yeah, I'm definitely on the Perez train. He straddles the attack dog role, minority outreach, and liberal bonadifes roles pretty well. If he is up against Fiorina or someone like Christie as a VP, he'd have a pretty strong case that he is just as qualified as they are to be President.
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
I do feel bad for S4P type of people who are expecting absolute chaos at the Democratic convention, only to be met with a 1st ballot win by Clinton.

All these blogs are hyping this up to be a major showdown like it's the GOP, calling it a brokered convention and how Sanders has a shot at completely wiping the floor or something.
 
S

Skiptastic

Member
Kusagari said:
Pence joins the establishment Republicans saying "Yeah, I hate Cruz's guts but uhh, vote for him I guess to stop Trump."
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Pence being considered an "establishment Republican" is basically the reason why I feel like the GOP has left folks like me. I still don't think he is, but it does help explain a lot.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
TheLostBigBoss said:
I do feel bad for S4P type of people who are expecting absolute chaos at the Democratic convention, only to be met with a 1st ballot win by Clinton.
.
Click to expand...

13102858_10153677102328251_7185781421130429525_n.jpg
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Seeing all these Republicans endorse someone they abhor will never get old. it'll be the same when Trump is sworn in at the convention and beyond.

We'll definitely see a good number of women and sane GOP voters cross over to vote Hillary or just abstain altogether.
 
OuterLimits

OuterLimits

Member
That was a bizarre "endorsement". He is voting Cruz but will happily support the winner of the nomination and wants every voter to decide who is best. Lol. Apparently Walker and others were pressuring him to endorse Cruz.

Clearly he is worried about Trump supporters not backing him during reelection though.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
It is pretty short-sighted of the GOP to see a lot of the up and coming talent say that they'll endorse the eventual nominee of the party, even if it's Trump. If the Trump campaign in the GE really is as disastrous as we think, Democrats can use GOP endorsements of Trump for a generation as an attack. Any endorsement of Trump could be absolutely toxic for the GOP with Hispanics.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
TheLostBigBoss said:
I do feel bad for S4P type of people who are expecting absolute chaos at the Democratic convention, only to be met with a 1st ballot win by Clinton.

All these blogs are hyping this up to be a major showdown like it's the GOP, calling it a brokered convention and how Sanders has a shot at completely wiping the floor or something.
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I feel bad for the ones who have gotten so stuck in a loop of thinking that they might snap when it all comes crashing down. Some of them seem to have gotten so stuck into conspiracies and this make believe scenarios they've concocted that they can't get out.

When she wins on the first ballot
When he concedes and fully endorses her and starts campaigning for her
When she isn't indicted and the FBI finds no wrong doing
When Donald Trump gets crushed in every single debate
When she becomes President of the United States

But how could we lose against this corrupt shill
But how could those emails amount to nothing
Why does nobody care about her speeches
How come she wasn't indicted
How come Bernie betrayed us
I worked so hard
I spent so much money
How did she do this, how is this happening, everyone loved him, loved us. Everyone I know loved him. She had nobody. Nobody likes her. Nobody could possibly like her.

I am legitimately afraid someone is going to have a psychotic breakdown over this. Some people don't even seem able to fully grasp that she won't be indicted and that nobody really cares all that much about her emails.
 
T

thefro

Member
Pence "endorsing" Cruz hopefully hurts him in the fall with Trump voters.

Ecotic said:
Hillary is conceding Indiana, she's not campaigning at all there? That's what MSNBC is reporting. I thought she was leading there.
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Hillary, Bill, and Chelsea all campaigned some in Indiana earlier in the week. I think Hillary was supposed to be back before the primary.


Meanwhile...

Tim McNicholas
‏@TimMcNicholas

Gubernatorial candidate John Gregg introduced. Crowd chants "fire Mike Pence."
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https://twitter.com/TimMcNicholas/status/726088147382210560

LJPb9vL.jpg
 
N

nature boy

Member
Cesare Borgia said:
Worse yet he points to Arnold winning the state as evidence. As if we needed more examples that he's a dumbass who will do anything for access to a candidate.

Hispanic voter registration in California is insane right now. They are registering and getting ready to vote in mass, despite the fact that it won't even be a competitive state.
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Yes even Trump knows he doesn't have a hope in hell in California. Why Halperin thinks so is a mystery (well he has The Circus and is trying to be impartial).

Not sure if posted:
Insiders: Clinton would crush Trump in November
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
Boy Clinton is making a yuge mistake giving up all these states because she has the audacity to have a huge 300+ delegate lead!!!!

Brokered convention here we come!!!!
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Free or debt-free education is now my number one issue by many orders of magnitude and I want to see leaps of progress on this within the next 8 years.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Ecotic said:
Hillary is conceding Indiana, she's not campaigning at all there? That's what MSNBC is reporting. I thought she was leading there.
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She's not going to win Indiana, her internals probably show her down. But that said, it doesn't really matter anymore unless Bernie wins 70% in every upcoming state.
 
B

br0ken_shad0w

Member
So on the topic of why Democrats need to get back the Supreme Court:

U.S. Supreme Court Lets Texas Continue Enforcing Voter-ID Law

The U.S. Supreme Court let Texas continue to enforce a voter-identification law that two lower courts said places a disproportionate burden on racial minorities.

The one-paragraph order, which came Friday without published dissent, is at least a temporary rebuff to civil rights groups. The justices left open the possibility they would intervene later, inviting a new filing if a federal appeals court hasn’t acted by July 20.

Opponents of the law were aiming to stop it before Texas begins preparations for the November balloting. The high court said it "recognizes the time constraints the parties confront in light of the scheduled elections in November 2016."

A divided Supreme Court previously refused to block the measure before the 2014 election.

Although a three-judge federal appellate panel concluded last year that the measure discriminates against minority voters in violation of the U.S. Voting Rights Act, that court didn’t put the measure on hold. A larger group of judges on the New Orleans-based court is now preparing to reconsider the case.

The case is Veasey v. Abbott, 15A999.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-04-29/u-s-supreme-court-lets-texas-continue-enforcing-voter-id-law
 
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