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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam

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I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
omg, Jeb cannot spell Dwyane Wade:

https://twitter.com/JebBush/status/726241276446658562

Dwayne Wade is the man. Go Heat!
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ChQgafvW0AAbUWr.jpg
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Aaron Strife said:
David Vitter?

He was lucky that his next election was for Senate in a midterm year. He took that as a sign that the people "forgave" him when he ran for governor and got his ass handed to him in a deep red state.
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Ahhh yeah that's true. Forgot about him. Lucky for Louisiana Gaf too.

Also, wasn't there a scandal with the Alabama Governor? Maddow did a huge thing on it but I haven't heard anything since.
 
Havoc2049

Havoc2049

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
Ahhh yeah that's true. Forgot about him. Lucky for Louisiana Gaf too.

Also, wasn't there a scandal with the Alabama Governor? Maddow did a huge thing on it but I haven't heard anything since.
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Wasn't he like sexting with someone on has staff or something? It actually wasn't that bad, but he was a big time holier than thou type guy, so it obviously didn't play well with his base.
 
D

Drakeon

Member
Havoc2049 said:
Wasn't he like sexting with someone on has staff or something? It actually wasn't that bad, but he was a big time holier than thou type guy, so it obviously didn't play well with his base.
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I thought it was more than that. Wasn't he using government funds improperly? To pay for thousands of dollars in burner phones?
 
P

pigeon

Banned
I have some kind of illness, so bearing that in mind, here's my hot take for the evening:

If Hillary Clinton actually did commit voter fraud to beat Bernie Sanders, that's actually just further evidence that she's the best choice to beat the GOP in the general election. Look how good she is at it!
 
H

hammysaurusrex

Member
So Benchmark is saying Indian will essentially be a tie (which at this point in the game is basically a loss for Sanders), while FiveThirtyEight updated today and is saying Hillary with a whopping 12% win. Interesting to see how that plays out.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
hammysaurusrex said:
So Benchmark is saying Indian will essentially be a tie (which at this point in the game is basically a loss for Sanders), while FiveThirtyEight updated today and is saying Hillary with a whopping 12% win. Interesting to see how that plays out.
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Benchmark is mostly relying on demos while 538 is mostly relying on polls.

I still have money on Sanders because it's open but it'd be funny if he lost.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
pigeon said:
I have some kind of illness, so bearing that in mind, here's my hot take for the evening:

If Hillary Clinton actually did commit voter fraud to beat Bernie Sanders, that's actually just further evidence that she's the best choice to beat the GOP in the general election. Look how good she is at it!
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That take is

qPiCbnW.gif
 
H

Holmes

Member
hammysaurusrex said:
So Benchmark is saying Indian will essentially be a tie (which at this point in the game is basically a loss for Sanders), while FiveThirtyEight updated today and is saying Hillary with a whopping 12% win. Interesting to see how that plays out.
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538's model put a lot of weight on the crappy ARG poll, and some weight on that one Clinton +13 poll that was kind of crazy too. It'll be close and it does lean Clinton I think, all the polls are in agreement, but it won't be a big win.

It's similar on the Republican side, that poll with Cruz +16 has some weight in the model, which means that Cruz's chances in the polls plus forecast went up quite a bit and he's very favored now. I think Nate just wants his polls plus to say Cruz so that if he does win, he can say "I was right!", and his polls only forecasts to say Trump so that if he does win, he can say "I was right that the polls were right!"

Actually, it's funny that Nate's polls plus forecasts seem to mirror his attitude towards Trump in a sense. If you go to California's polls plus, Trump's chances have been going down (and Cruz's have been going up) despite no new data since the last poll (Fox's Trump +27), and Trump winning 5 states in landslides. So somehow that means his chances to win California have gone down.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
pigeon said:
I have some kind of illness, so bearing that in mind, here's my hot take for the evening:

If Hillary Clinton actually did commit voter fraud to beat Bernie Sanders, that's actually just further evidence that she's the best choice to beat the GOP in the general election. Look how good she is at it!
Click to expand...

Pigeon.
 
H

hammysaurusrex

Member
ivysaur12 said:
Benchmark is mostly relying on demos while 538 is mostly relying on polls.

I still have money on Sanders because it's open but it'd be funny if he lost.
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Same, I'm leaning towards a Sanders win, but of course with a margin that's too little way too late. That being said, I'm certainly open to the idea of a Hillary win being possible. That would be profoundly demoralizing for them.

As long as rendering Hillary non-viable in California is a theoretical possibility (the same way me winning the Nobel Prize is a theoretical possibility), I think there's going to be true believers remaining (maybe even beyond that...)
 
E

exmachina64

Banned
VendettaRed07 said:
Ahhh yeah that's true. Forgot about him. Lucky for Louisiana Gaf too.

Also, wasn't there a scandal with the Alabama Governor? Maddow did a huge thing on it but I haven't heard anything since.
Click to expand...

Havoc2049 said:
Wasn't he like sexting with someone on has staff or something? It actually wasn't that bad, but he was a big time holier than thou type guy, so it obviously didn't play well with his base.
Click to expand...

Ultra-condensed version:

Bentley, the governor in question, had an affair with a married woman on his staff named Rebekah Mason. The affair lasted from potentially during his 2010 campaign, where he campaigned as a Christian and morally superior to his opponents, until a few months ago. The only reason the public knows of this affair is because Bentley's ex-wife, Wanda,
leaked secret and potentially illegal recordings she made to use as evidence during her divorce hearings.

Functionally, Mason acted as Bentley's chief of staff, restricting access to him. Mason's husband, Jon, served on Bentley's cabinet as the head of faith-based initiatives. Jon, to his credit, claims he didn't know of the affair while it occurred.

Bentley used loopholes to pay the Masons unethical and perhaps illegal amounts of money. There's also the fact that it is actually illegal for the governor to use state funds to conduct affairs in Alabama (shocking, I know). This is the basis on which he would be impeached. Bentley maintains he didn't commit any unethical actions, however, he used state resources to cover up his affair. In any proper investigation, Bentley would have trouble creating a distinction between Mason's official role on his staff, where she traveled on most of his foreign and domestic business trips, and the activities in which they engaged during their free time on these trips.

Bentley's successfully stymied investigations thus far and appears to have successfully run out the clock on impeachment due to the end of Alabama's 2016 legislative session. Yes, that's right, there are only four days left in Alabama's legislative calendar in 2016. Who controls the ability to convene special sessions? The governor of Alabama.

What did Bentley do before he ran for governor? He was a dermatologist. What did the Masons do? They were broadcast journalists. Is it unusual for Alabama politicians to be paid completely off the book by private business interests and not on the state's payroll? Nope.

tl;dr: Everyone involved in Alabama politics is a corrupt and incompetent asshole.
 
B

border

Member
Holmes said:
Actually, it's funny that Nate's polls plus forecasts seem to mirror his attitude towards Trump in a sense. If you go to California's polls plus, Trump's chances have been going down (and Cruz's have been going up) despite no new data since the last poll (Fox's Trump +27), and Trump winning 5 states in landslides. So somehow that means his chances to win California have gone down.
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Is this the only time that the Polls and Polls Plus predictions have been in such sharp contrast?
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
border said:
Is this the only time that the Polls and Polls Plus predictions have been in such sharp contrast?
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Polls plus assumes a normal contest, Trump is an abnormal candidate. Nate's model doesn't, and how could it, account for the rampant racism of much of the republican base.

If Trump wasn't Trump he would have wrapped up the primary ages ago and the GOP would have lined up behind him by now. Nate's models just can't account for an abnormal situation.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
jack_package_200 said:
So I noticed Melkr hasn't been posting much... hope he is okay :(
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Yeah, sometimes he got a little too heated (but frankly, don't we all) but he is good poster, and it's a bit more boring around here without him.

@Cerium
Someone should compile all of those Trump "steamrolling" cartoons. You could probably make a book out of them.

B-Dubs said:
Polls plus assumes a normal contest, Trump is an abnormal candidate. Nate's model doesn't, and how could it, account for the rampant racism of much of the republican base.

If Trump wasn't Trump he would have wrapped up the primary ages ago and the GOP would have lined up behind him by now. Nate's models just can't account for an abnormal situation.
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It's really no fault of his, but he is reluctant to go in that direction to explain what is going on. I wonder how much the GE will be off due to similar issues. I strongly suspect not nearly as much. (plus, you get a shitload more polling in the GE)
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
This is actual cartoon villainy instead of the horror movie villainy Cruz and Trump usually practice:

The two men hired by Donald Trump and Ted Cruz to spearhead their presidential campaigns in California are, for the moment, rivals in what could be the most important primary race of 2016.

But four years ago, Tim Clark and Ron Nehring, who are running the California campaigns for Trump and Cruz respectively, worked as paid advisers to a campaign to elect a Guatemalan presidential candidate whose platform included a call for public executions.

Clark and Nehring, the Guardian can reveal, spent six weeks in Guatemala in 2011 working as advisers to Manuel Baldízon, a rightwing populist and business tycoon who campaigned on the promise of broadcasting the executions of criminals on TV.
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http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...fornia-advisers-guatemala-televised-execution
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
B-Dubs said:
Holy shit, you can't make this shit up. I swear to god...
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I mean, Rubio actually had this idea like eight months ago when he was all: "Man, ISIS is so good at getting people to fight for them by making videos of their killings. What if we broadcast us killing people from ISIS?!?"

But still.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Fuuuck. Hillary's in Oakland next Friday and I really want to go, but it's my mother's last day of visiting me. Why couldn't she make her rally on Saturday? :/
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Greatest paragraph of all time:

Operation Rescue disputed that assertion. “Newman has never advocated violence against abortion providers or facilities and has instead adamantly encouraged pro-life activists to work through the legal, legislative, and justice systems to bring abortionists who are breaking the law and harming women to justice,” said Cheryl Sullenger, the group's policy adviser, in a statement. (The letter sent Thursday also mentions Sullenger’s federal prison sentence as a co-conspirator in a plot to bomb a California abortion clinic in the 1980s.)
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http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-...chair-of-pro-lifers-for-cruz-coalition-222546

"Admitted terrorist says they've never advocated violence."

Here's my roundup on Ted Cruz's very psychotic, quite frightening week:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1213363

... I think Ted Cruz's dad is suggesting that Obama wants to murder millions of Americans?

http://www.rightwingwatch.org/conte...ersecution-america-part-plan-impose-communism

lol, Ted Cruz's dad would be so funny if not for the fact that he's influential to a politically important person.
 
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