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[Beer Monkey]

So a few months back I was up close to $3000 on PredictIt. I lost over $1000 of that when Trump inexplicably started free-falling after his Super Tuesday domination. I said "fuck these idiots" and cashed out at around $1800 profit after fees.

Since then, everything I predicted would happen has happened. I just didn't have the balls to stay the course. Trump is up to 89c in the RNom market and back to 40c in the US Prez market. Cruz No in RNom is up above 90c. I could have made an extra $2000 or so easily if I'd just stayed the course.

Tbh I got legit shook when people were bidding Paul Ryan up to the high 20s. I figured the market was too irrational to be worth the risk. Turns out it was rational, it just took a little while to get there.

There are overlapping waves of various sizes of irrationality that smooth out over time to rationality. So yeah, what you said.

But hey, you made good bank. My biggest regret is not jumping in until a couple of days ago.

 

[HylianTom]

I agree with that. If you support trump you are either a racist or are okay with a racist as president. At some point that is not a meaningful distinction to me.

DING DING DING DING.

No amount of flowery linguistic gymnastics will change this.

 

[PBY]

DING DING DING DING.

No amount of flowery linguistic gymnastics will change this.

Also - I'm not sure this is a controversial point?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I know Kris is trolling but I just don't know what the character is based on.

Just for clarification:

-Trump's foreign policy plans involve sabotaging all diplomatic relationships with U.S. allies, leading to a massive decline in U.S. power around the world.

-Trump's plan with regards to ISIS is more torture and more purposeful killing of families and civilians. Everything else he has flip-flopped on daily.

-"Negotiate better trade deals" doesn't anything since Trump has no details.

-Trump IS money in politics.

-Net illegal immigration is 0 right now.

 

[CCS]

Not true at all. I know Hispanics and Black people who are all in on Donald "She talks like a truck driver" Trump, are they racist? (Not a Donald "She talks like a truck driver" Trump fan btw)

I'd argue that's a case of internalised racism, but I don't want to continue this argument because I'm about to go to bed

 

[Suikoguy]

Show me the polls, then. 30% of Trump supporters are racist. I want to see it. And even if you do show me that, 30% of his supporters being racist means 70% of them are not racist! That's evidence that Trump's rise IS because of identity politics, NOT because of white power ku Klux Klan David duke white sheeting. Seriously, the exact phrase "white people in America are fucking racist" does not seem highly offensive to you people? Is this really within the code of conduct on Neogaf?

This literally took me 15 seconds on google:

http://www.salon.com/2015/11/25/don...prove_his_success_really_is_based_on_racists/

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I think this is the brainchild character now. I'm pretty sure.

 

[brainchild]

I guess I don't understand what loophole you're talking about, then. Are you talking about McCutcheon overturning the cap?

The loophole that allows the Clinton campaign to directly benefit from bundled donations (right now, not just in the GE) despite such donations being solicited as primarily benefiting the downticket.

Millions have been raised in direct advertising and campaign staffing that couldn't have been funded by individual contributions.

Still perfectly legal, but an exploitation of a loophole nonetheless.

 

[Sibylus]

Every day is additional confirmation that being called racist is worse than being racist for a lot of folks.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

I think Trump is a racist! I agree with that! And I think a sizable number of people voting for him are racist! Sure!

But what are conservatives in this country supposed to do this election? Why does it make you a racist if you're voting for the only real choice you've got? Are you all saying that 40-50% of the voters in the GOP primary are racists? And not only racists, but "super fucking racists"? What happened to restraint over hyperbole?

 

[Paskil]

I would argue that everyone in this country is racist. You can fight against it and work against it as hard as you like, but at some point, there have been thoughts or a brief lightbulb flicker.

You can't live in this world and not have your views colored by race.

 

[PBY]

I think Trump is a racist! I agree with that! And I think a sizable number of people voting for him are racist! Sure!

But what are conservatives in this country supposed to do this election? Why does it make you a racist if you're voting for the only real choice you've got? Are you all saying that 40-50% of the voters in the GOP primary are racists? And not only racists, but "super fucking racists"? What happened to restraint over hyperbole?

Uhhh its not the only choice?

 

[Sibylus]

I think Trump is a racist! I agree with that! And I think a sizable number of people voting for him are racist! Sure!

But what are conservatives in this country supposed to do this election? Why does it make you a racist if you're voting for the only real choice you've got? Are you all saying that 40-50% of the voters in the GOP primary are racists? And not only racists, but "super fucking racists"? What happened to restraint over hyperbole?

Clearly, they're morally bound to vote for the hyper-racist, proto-fascist candidate!

 

[ivysaur12]

I think Trump is a racist! I agree with that! And I think a sizable number of people voting for him are racist! Sure!

But what are conservatives in this country supposed to do this election? Why does it make you a racist if you're voting for the only real choice you've got? Are you all saying that 40-50% of the voters in the GOP primary are racists? And not only racists, but "super fucking racists"? What happened to restraint over hyperbole?

Then I would say you vote 3rd party or don't vote if the candidate at the top of your ticket is a racist, nationalistic misogynist.

 

[Loudninja]

I would argue that everyone in this country is racist. You can fight against it and work against it as hard as you like, but at some point, there have been thoughts or a brief lightbulb flicker.

You can't live in this world and not have your views colored by race.

Oh lord.

 

[Y2Kev]

They can vote for Hillary Clinton, who is a decent human being and not a racist. If you can't get over that and are okay with a racist as president because you hate transgendered people, then enjoy me telling you that you are a shit taco racist!

 

[Bowdz]

So what are all of your predictions for tomorrow?

I'm going to guess:

Trump - 47%
Cruz - 35%
Kasich - 18%

Clinton - 52%
Sanders - 48%

 

[Spoiled Milk]

This literally took me 15 seconds on google:

http://www.salon.com/2015/11/25/don...prove_his_success_really_is_based_on_racists/

It took me all of 15 seconds to read that article. They're talking about people who both oppose Syrian refugees and want to deport illegal immigrants. You do not have to be a racist to feel this way at all.

Do I seriously have to pull out the pictures from the 60s to show you guys what racists look like? Do we need to revisit the stories of lynching and coordinated disenfranchisement of any black man uppity enough to think he deserves a vote? Is being concerned about national security really the litmus test for being a racist now?

 

[PBY]

@hunterw
The protesters outside the Ted Cruz event are now chanting "No one likes you." One man shouted "You look like a fish monster!"

 

[Basileus777]

Do I seriously have to pull out the pictures from the 60s to show you guys what racists look like? Do we need to revisit the stories of lynching and coordinated disenfranchisement of any black man uppity enough to think he deserves a vote? Is being concerned about national security really the litmus test for being a racist now?

Oh, you think you have to be lynching people to be a racist.


I hope you really are posting in character.

 

[ampere]

The Trump racism thing is not a complex issue, really.

You can be that guy who literally doesn't care about race issues at all and only votes for some other reasons, but willful ignorance of how important those issues are doesn't really elevate you much higher than people who are voting for xenophobic and racist reasons.

 

[brainchild]

Posting from the OT thread, just so we don't have to go through the source debate again

Behind the scenes at the Democratic National Committee’s summer meeting in Minneapolis last August, campaign officials for Hillary Clinton were making a hard sell to the state parties.

In private huddles, they urged state officials to sign on to an ambitious fundraising endeavor that would allow Clinton’s presidential bid, the DNC and the state parties to scoop up and share big checks from wealthy donors. It would mark the earliest creation of a joint fundraising committee between a presidential candidate and the party, and it would be the biggest ever, thanks to a 2014 U.S. Supreme Court decision that knocked down a cap on how much donors could give to federal campaigns in a single year.

A record 32 state parties signed on to the fund, allowing the committee to solicit donations 130 times greater than what a supporter can give to Clinton’s campaign for the primary.

But the states have yet to see a financial windfall. Meanwhile, Clinton’s campaign has been a major beneficiary, getting an infusion of low-dollar contributions through the committee at a time when rival Bernie Sanders’s army of small donors is helping him close in on her financially. The fund is run by Clinton campaign staff, and its treasurer is Clinton’s chief operating officer.

Clinton officials said their use of the fund is proper and that the state parties will benefit from the millions of dollars the joint fundraising committee is generating for the DNC, which provides the infrastructure to support Democratic campaigns across the country.

...

The early, expansive use of a jumbo-size joint fundraising committee shows how the Clinton campaign has worked to maximize donations from wealthy supporters, seizing on rules loosened by the Supreme Court.

Many states were wary of joining the effort, worried that such a partnership would be perceived as an endorsement of Clinton and might interfere with their efforts to raise money from home state donors. But campaign officials — including Marlon Marshall, Clinton’s director of state campaigns — emphasized that this was a way to strengthen the party at its roots, a message Clinton echoed in the speech she delivered at the Minneapolis meeting to DNC members.

“It’s time to rebuild our party from the ground up,” the former secretary of state pledged. “When our state parties are strong, we win.”

...

So far, the state parties have served only as a pass-through for their share of the funds. Campaign finance records show that nearly $2 million in donations to the fund initially routed last year to individual state party accounts was immediately transferred to the DNC, which is laboring to pay off millions of dollars in debt.


Even as it has bolstered the DNC, the Hillary Victory Fund has had striking success bringing in new donors to support Clinton’s fight to beat Sanders for the Democratic nomination. The committee spent more than $4 million prospecting for small-dollar contributors through direct mail and online ads that resemble official campaign material, down to the signature “I’m with her” tagline. The net proceeds raised for the campaign: $3.24 million through the end of 2015.

Several campaign finance attorneys said the fund’s early investments in small-donor recruitment for Clinton were unusual, noting that a joint fundraising committee’s resources are traditionally focused on boosting a party nominee, typically through events at upscale hotels for deep-pocketed contributors.

went to two Washington, D.C.-area vendors that also work for the Clinton campaign: Bully Pulpit Interactive, which received $1.9 million for online ads, and Chapman Cubine Adams +Hussey, which was paid $2.4 million for direct mail solicitations, Federal Election Commission records show.

The victory fund also sponsors Clinton’s online store, allowing donors who have already given the maximum to her campaign to purchase Hillary lapel pins, caps or car magnets, with their money benefiting the party. It’s similar to the way President Obama’s online shop was run in his 2012 reelection.Aides to Sanders, whose joint fundraising committee with the DNC has not yet been active, said the Hillary Victory Fund appears to be functioning as an arm of Clinton’s campaign.

...


The amount donors can contribute to joint fundraising committees is much larger than in the past, thanks to the Supreme Court’s 2014 decision in McCutcheon v. FEC, which did away with the annual limit an individual could give to federal candidates and party committees.

[Supreme Court ruling gives small number of wealthy donors new ways to drive campaigns]

The change in the law increases the incentive for parties and candidates to create super-sized committees. For every state party that joined the Hillary Victory Fund, officials were able to increase the maximum annual donation from an individual by $10,000.

At the August DNC meeting, Clinton aides lobbied states to get on board.

“A few state parties were pretty suspicious of this, because there was no way you could see it as anything but a tacit endorsement of Hillary Clinton,” said one party leader whose state declined to sign on to the victory fund and spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.

Other state officials were concerned that the fund would undercut their ability to raise funds for key races from home-state contributors.

“We felt it was in the best interest of Nebraska Democrats to not participate,” said Vince Powers, the state party chairman there, who said his priority is the reelection of Brad Ashford, the lone Democrat in the state’s congressional delegation.“They raised all that money, so transferring it back out just seemed like the fair thing to do,” she said. “We felt it would help them and also help our efforts in Utah to mobilize voters.” The treasurer of the Hillary Victory Fund is Elizabeth Jones, the Clinton campaign’s chief operating officer. She controls how the money is transferred to the states and the DNC, according to a person familiar with the structure. The timing of the transfers is at her “sole discretion,” according to a copy of the joint fundraising agreement obtained by The Washington Post.

In Minneapolis, the Clinton campaign tried to persuade Powers to come on board, inviting him to meet privately with Marshall, Clinton’s director of state campaigns and political engagement. “It was a nice meeting,” said Powers, though he didn’t change his position.

In the end, states including California, Iowa and Washington declined to sign on. Among the 32 that did was Utah. The state party’s executive director, Lauren Littlefield, said it was clear that the donations the state parties received through the victory fund were expected to be routed to DNC headquarters in Washington.


The victory fund now functions as an operation embedded within the Clinton campaign, run by campaign staffers. Last year, the fund reimbursed the campaign nearly $1.5 million for salary and overheard.

(In comparison, the treasurer of the Bernie Victory Fund, Sanders’s joint fundraising committee with the party, is the DNC’s chief financial officer, Bradley Marshall. So far, the fund has raised just $1,000 — a donation from the DNC.)

Several state party officials participating in the effort — particularly those in battleground states — said they’re confident they will eventually reap the benefits.

“When somebody comes to me and says, ‘Hey, I have a way of making your party stronger,’ I say, ‘Let’s do it,’ ” said Raymond Buckley, chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, who said he expects the DNC will make “enormous” investments in his state before the November elections.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...535cea-d68f-11e5-b195-2e29a4e13425_story.html


So it would seem that both state parties and campaign finance attorneys find the behavior of the joint fund unusual, for reasons already explained.

 

[StopMakingSense]

So what are all of your predictions for tomorrow?

I'm going to guess:

Trump - 47%
Cruz - 35%
Kasich - 18%

Clinton - 52%
Sanders - 48%

Im going 50+ for Trump.

 

[Brinbe]

lmao @ fish monster

 

[Paskil]

Oh lord.

Might be a bit strong. I woild argue that at the very least, everyone experiences prejudice. Even passive prejudice is prejudice. Depending on your definitions, that can be defined as racism. I probably shouldnt even get into this...

 

[Kangi]

So what are all of your predictions for tomorrow?

I'm going to guess:

Trump - 47%
Cruz - 35%
Kasich - 18%

Clinton - 52%
Sanders - 48%

Cruz and Sanders win. Sanders goes on about momentum and beating expectations and totally having a chance. Cruz turns Indiana into a swirling black void in a monument to his grotesque power.

It took me all of 15 seconds to read that article. They're talking about people who both oppose Syrian refugees and want to deport illegal immigrants. You do not have to be a racist to feel this way at all.

Do I seriously have to pull out the pictures from the 60s to show you guys what racists look like? Do we need to revisit the stories of lynching and coordinated disenfranchisement of any black man uppity enough to think he deserves a vote? Is being concerned about national security really the litmus test for being a racist now?

Speaking of grotesque.

 

[PBY]

It took me all of 15 seconds to read that article. They're talking about people who both oppose Syrian refugees and want to deport illegal immigrants. You do not have to be a racist to feel this way at all.

Do I seriously have to pull out the pictures from the 60s to show you guys what racists look like? Do we need to revisit the stories of lynching and coordinated disenfranchisement of any black man uppity enough to think he deserves a vote? Is being concerned about national security really the litmus test for being a racist now?

I would argue that this is a FUCKED up way to view racism, and it actually leads to people thinking that racism is no longer a problem, and is at the core of our systemic issues as a society.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

@hunterw
The protesters outside the Ted Cruz event are now chanting "No one likes you." One man shouted "You look like a fish monster!"

Politifact ratings: True and True.

There are protesters outside the Ted Cruz event chanting "go home to Canada"

... At least it's not as bad as go back to Africa?

https://twitter.com/hunterw/status/727263724893966337

 

[Box of Kittens]

But what are conservatives in this country supposed to do this election? Why does it make you a racist if you're voting for the only real choice you've got?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louisiana_gubernatorial_election,_1991

 

[balladofwindfishes]

So what are all of your predictions for tomorrow?

I'm going to guess:

Trump - 47%
Cruz - 35%
Kasich - 18%

Clinton - 52%
Sanders - 48%

This seems about right

 

[Sibylus]

It took me all of 15 seconds to read that article. They're talking about people who both oppose Syrian refugees and want to deport illegal immigrants. You do not have to be a racist to feel this way at all.

Do I seriously have to pull out the pictures from the 60s to show you guys what racists look like? Do we need to revisit the stories of lynching and coordinated disenfranchisement of any black man uppity enough to think he deserves a vote? Is being concerned about national security really the litmus test for being a racist now?

Concern about national security... from caricatured Mexican super-rapists and Muslims of all stripes.

Nope, no racism here. Can't see the racism unless Trump's followers start lynching people.

 

[studyguy]

I expect Trump 44% and Hillary somewhere in the mid 50's at best.
Cruz seriously must be crying himself to sleep out there.

 

[Havoc2049]

Cruz is toast, the question is whether he can recover from this to compete in 2020.

Cruz will have a hard time winning reelection in Texas. Politically, I think he is done. He has just looked soooooo bad this election cycle.

 

[pigeon]

I think Trump is a racist! I agree with that! And I think a sizable number of people voting for him are racist! Sure!

But what are conservatives in this country supposed to do this election?

Vote for Hillary Clinton?

Stay home?

Why does it make you a racist if you're voting for the only real choice you've got?

Because that choice comes with racism. Like, this is complete bullshit. If you're willing to vote for Trump because of his "conservative policies" or because you hate Hillary's policies, you are straight up saying that you are okay with promoting and empowering racism if you get the policies you want as a result.

How does that NOT make you a racist? Serious question.

Are you all saying that 40-50% of the voters in the GOP primary are racists? And not only racists, but "super fucking racists"? What happened to restraint over hyperbole?

Hey, we stopped at 50%. That sounds like restraint to me! I think there's a pretty reasonable argument that the figure should be much closer to 80%. But I like to give people the benefit of the doubt.

edit:

Do I seriously have to pull out the pictures from the 60s to show you guys what racists look like? Do we need to revisit the stories of lynching and coordinated disenfranchisement of any black man uppity enough to think he deserves a vote? Is being concerned about national security really the litmus test for being a racist now?

You have really, truly lost your fucking shit.

 

[Sibylus]

How many people have Trumpists enslaved, sold, or cut the hands off of today?

Checkmate, liberals.

 

[Mael]

Concern about national security... from caricatured Mexican super-rapists and Muslims of all stripes.

Nope, no racism here. Can't see the racism unless Trump's followers start lynching people.

Quantum racism strikes again, if they don't say racist stuffs (prefaced with "I as a racist dirtbag") with racist intent while doing explicit racist stuffs they can't really called racists.
It's not fair otherwise.

How many people have Trumpists enslaved, sold, or cut the hands off of today?

Checkmate, liberals.

Cutting the hands could be because of sharia law or something, you never know.

 

[ampere]

I would argue that everyone in this country is racist. You can fight against it and work against it as hard as you like, but at some point, there have been thoughts or a brief lightbulb flicker.

You can't live in this world and not have your views colored by race.

I generally agree with what you're saying. I absolutely have prejudiced thoughts and otherwise pretty nasty thoughts at times. I try not to live by them, but I'm sure I fuck up sometimes.

 

[JesseEwiak]

I think Trump is a racist! I agree with that! And I think a sizable number of people voting for him are racist! Sure!

But what are conservatives in this country supposed to do this election? Why does it make you a racist if you're voting for the only real choice you've got? Are you all saying that 40-50% of the voters in the GOP primary are racists? And not only racists, but "super fucking racists"? What happened to restraint over hyperbole?

Gary Johnson is right there for conservatives. I disagree with him on 99% of the issues, but he's neither a racist or a sexist. Or hell, if you don't like the fact Johnson is pro-choice, write-in Marco Rubio or whomever.

 

[Box of Kittens]

So what are all of your predictions for tomorrow?

I'm going to guess:

Trump - 47%
Cruz - 35%
Kasich - 18%

Clinton - 52%
Sanders - 48%

I did my predictions at the district level.

On the Republican side I'm predicting a Trump sweep.

On the Democratic side I'm predicting Clinton to win the 1st, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th districts and statewide, while Sanders wins the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 9th districts. See the linked post for a primer on Indiana's congressional districts.

 

[Mrs. Manky]

But that's exactly what the wife of the zodiac killer would say!

Maybe SHE is the Zodiac Killer.

Okay, I'm done with this nonsense.

The Sanders campaign is getting more and more ridiculous. They just need to stop already. I was pleased to read their fundraising is down around 20 million in April versus march, people are wising up.

If much of his donor base is college students, maybe they are saving their money for post grad stuff (interview suit, downpayment for apartment, etc) or getting ready for the summer before the next school year.

 

[Clefargle]

I would argue that everyone in this country is racist. You can fight against it and work against it as hard as you like, but at some point, there have been thoughts or a brief lightbulb flicker.

You can't live in this world and not have your views colored by race.

Yeah, I've had it be a part of my life for a while. I still fight against stereotypes and bias every day.

 

[ampere]

I don't think the "who else can they vote for?" argument has any real weight. It does imply that they physically cannot vote for another party, even a third party candidate or stay home.

 

[Crocodile]

DWS is doing a shitty job of defending the Democratic nomination process :/

 

[PBY]

damn, donald really not going after fiorina

 

[Suikoguy]

If much of his donor base is college students, maybe they are saving their money for post grad stuff (interview suit, downpayment for apartment, etc) or getting ready for the summer before the next school year.

The next dispersal of Student Loans would be 2 weeks after classes start in August/September.

 

[B-Dubs]

DWS is doing a shitty job of defending the Democratic nomination process :/

If she were good at her job the Dems wouldn't be having any issues.

damn, donald really not going after fiorina

The best part of that is where he acknowledges the fact he's a heel.

 

[RastaMentality]

I would argue that everyone in this country is racist. You can fight against it and work against it as hard as you like, but at some point, there have been thoughts or a brief lightbulb flicker.

You can't live in this world and not have your views colored by race.

This is not how racism works.

 

[LizardKing]

Eh, it's not hard to imagine the GOP getting a candidate through the primary that could contend with what is likely to be a vulnerable Democratic incumbent in 2020. It'll be another dangerous year especially as the GOP is likely to walk away with control over both houses of Congress in 2018.

To be honest, assuming Hillary wins this year I'm a little worried about Paul Ryan in 2020. He has the charisma and look while also having the views that could unite the divided republican thinking. Really far off to be confident either way though.

 

[johnsmith]

They can vote for Hillary Clinton, who is a decent human being and not a racist. If you can't get over that and are okay with a racist as president because you hate transgendered people, then enjoy me telling you that you are a shit taco racist!

I feel you using taco in an insult is racist.

lmao @ fish monster

I feel this comparison is insulting to sahagin and deep ones.

 

[hammysaurusrex]

There's certainly one thing I can agree with Sanders camp about - DWS needs to go. Although, they believe it's because she's a shadow government mastermind plotting schemes... while I just don't think she's good enough for the job. Not that I envy anyone who has it, as it's basically the role of circus ring-leader at the moment.