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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam

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I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Those numbers are fucking dominant.

Trump just needs to survive Cruz's "Trump doesn't hate transgender individuals so he's pro child rape" attack and he'll win this easily and I think Cruz's attack is just so depraved and desperate that it won't work.
 
R

Rubenov

Member
Does everyone here think Trump can pull through a second ballot? I'd imagine Cruz will do Cruz things and with the help of the establishment(!) he will 'steal' a bunch of delegates, taking the lead on the 3rd and securing the nomination on the 4th? Something like that.

Basically, I think Trump is fucked in a contested convention.
 
P

PBY

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Those numbers are fucking dominant.

Trump just needs to survive Cruz's "Trump doesn't hate transgender individuals so he's pro child rape" attack and he'll win this easily and I think Cruz's attack is just so depraved and desperate that it won't work.
Click to expand...

I'm not concerned at ALL with the "Trump is TOO PC attack" to be honest.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Bahahaha, good job, Hoosiers. Hope those numbers hold. Kasich is really screwing Cruz (and the establishment) over and he has basically has zero shot even at the convention.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Rubenov said:
Does everyone here think Trump can pull through a second ballot? I'd imagine Cruz will do Cruz things and with the help of the establishment(!) he will 'steal' a bunch of delegates, taking the lead on the 3rd and securing the nomination on the 4th? Something like that.

Basically, I think Trump is fucked in a contested convention.
Click to expand...
He probably is, but if those Indiana and California numbers hold he won't need to worry about it unless the RNC totally fucks him over by changing the rules right before the convention.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I don't believe California is that far apart on the R side or that close on the D side. This makes me unhappy with both of these polls now.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Harry EntenVerified account
‏@ForecasterEnten
Taken those Fox News poll together, and Trump would very likely reach 1237.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Rubenov said:
Does everyone here think Trump can pull through a second ballot? I'd imagine Cruz will do Cruz things and with the help of the establishment(!) he will 'steal' a bunch of delegates, taking the lead on the 3rd and securing the nomination on the 4th? Something like that.

Basically, I think Trump is fucked in a contested convention.
Click to expand...
I have a theory that Trump is going to go all out at the delegates: promise them free plane rides in Air Trump, hookers, expensive alcohol and unlimited re-election money. He has money to do so too. Art of the Deal stuff.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
"You know, it's very strange. They asked me a question about transgender people and I said 'oh, that should be a state issue' but then Ted here, he starts talking about children getting raped. First of all, I'm going to be the best at dealing with child molesters-The best. If you put hands on a kid, you're going away, believe me, believe me. But that's the thing with Ted, whenever you talk about this stuff, he starts talking about child rape. And it's very strange, you know Ted talks a lot about how he spanks his daughter-and don't get me wrong, I'm pro spanking when kids get out of line. But Lyin' Ted here, he says he spanks his daughter whenever she lies, which is, you know, a total joke. He's Lyin' Ted! But he talks about spanking his daughter a lot which, you know, I mean, I don't talk about spanking that much, I don't think most people do. It just seems like he talks a lot about how he puts his hands on his daughter. And then Ted is constantly thinking about all these odd ways that kids could be molested and he has kind of this look-you know, the eyes and the face, you get what I mean-and it's just very strange. Ted's a liar, but he's a really strange guy."


DO IT, TRUMP.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
balladofwindfishes said:
Those Latino numbers for Trump are LOL.

I imagine at this point even if the 30% of Bernie or Bust people kept to their words, Hillary would still sweep in a landslide victory.
Click to expand...

Based on the last poll, 25% of Bernie voters said they wouldn't vote for Clinton
30% of that would make it 7.5% of Bernie's total voters. Hrm, lemme do some research...

Hilariously: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...-half-of-clintons-supporters-wont-back-obama/

According to the exit polls, half of Clinton's supporters in Indiana would not vote for Obama in a general election match up with John McCain. A third of Clinton voters said they would pick McCain over Obama, while 17 percent said they would not vote at all. Just 48 percent of Clinton supporters said they would back Obama in November.
Click to expand...

By the way, that article was written in MAY of 2008; so even further along the primary process (and Clinton was as dead at that point as Bernie is at this point). So whenever someone tells you that "2016 is worse than 2008" or "Bernie supporters are the worst ever"; I want you to remember that article.

(Also, relevant modern link: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...ary-clinton-history-shows-win-bernie-sanders/)

Anyway, doing some research...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...025cf2-e92a-11e4-aae1-d642717d8afa_story.html

According to the 2008 exit poll, Democrats who voted for Clinton in the primaries split 83-16 for Obama-McCain.
Click to expand...

So, if 30% of Bernie voters who threatened to vote against Clinton did so, overall, Bernie voters would be twice as supportive of Clinton than Clinton supporters actually did in the 2008 general election. Basically, in order to meet the Clinton supporters who voted Republican rate, 2/3 (64%) of Bernie supporters who threaten not to vote for Clinton would actually need to do so.

http://www.mediaite.com/online/how-...of-bernie-sanders-fans-wont-vote-for-hillary/

FWIW, at the end of the primaries, 35% of Clinton supporters said they wouldn't support Obama (unfortunately, the wording of the question in 2008 is slightly different than in 2016). Based on the 16% actual vote from 2008 exit polls, 45% of those who threatened not to support Obama did end up voting for McCain. If Bernie '16 supporters are equally as vindictive as Clinton '08 supporters, then 11% of total Bernie supporters will end up voting for the GOP nominee.

Gives us a curious metric to keep in mind as the GE rolls around.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
"You know, it's very strange. They asked me a question about transgender people and I said 'oh, that should be a state issue' but then Ted here, he starts talking about children getting raped. First of all, I'm going to be the best at dealing with child molesters-The best. If you put hands on a kid, you're going away, believe me, believe me. But that's the thing with Ted, whenever you talk about this stuff, he starts talking about child rape. And it's very strange, you know Ted talks a lot about how he spanks his daughter-and don't get me wrong, I'm pro spanking when kids get out of line. But Lyin' Ted here, he says he spanks his daughter whenever she lies, which is, you know, a total joke. He's Lyin' Ted! But he talks about spanking his daughter a lot which, you know, I mean, I don't talk about spanking that much, I don't think most people do. It just seems like he talks a lot about how he puts his hands on his daughter. And then Ted is constantly thinking about all these odd ways that kids could be molested and he has kind of this look-you know, the eyes and the face, you get what I mean-and it's just very strange. Ted's a liar, but he's a really strange guy."


DO IT, TRUMP.
Click to expand...
This is the best fake trump quote yet.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
"You know, it's very strange. They asked me a question about transgender people and I said 'oh, that should be a state issue' but then Ted here, he starts talking about children getting raped. First of all, I'm going to be the best at dealing with child molesters-The best. If you put hands on a kid, you're going away, believe me, believe me. But that's the thing with Ted, whenever you talk about this stuff, he starts talking about child rape. And it's very strange, you know Ted talks a lot about how he spanks his daughter-and don't get me wrong, I'm pro spanking when kids get out of line. But Lyin' Ted here, he says he spanks his daughter whenever she lies, which is, you know, a total joke. He's Lyin' Ted! But he talks about spanking his daughter a lot which, you know, I mean, I don't talk about spanking that much, I don't think most people do. It just seems like he talks a lot about how he puts his hands on his daughter. And then Ted is constantly thinking about all these odd ways that kids could be molested and he has kind of this look-you know, the eyes and the face, you get what I mean-and it's just very strange. Ted's a liar, but he's a really strange guy."


DO IT, TRUMP.
Click to expand...

Oh lord, make it happen Trump! MAKE IT HAPPEN!
 
P

PBY

Banned
ivysaur12 said:
Eh, a 7-9 point race probably wouldn't mean it's that close in California. We'll see what happens on Tuesday to get a better sense of the race.
Click to expand...

I agree - I think its somewhere between +7 and +10 for Hill, but thats within the range of a pollster dropping this latest set of numbers.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Eh, it's an indicator of a tightening national race. Which is happening.

We'll see if it changes after next week.

Bernie is winning Latinos by 19 in that CA poll by the way.
 
A

ApharmdX

Banned
I got two tickets to Sunday's Trump rally. I'm not sure if I'll actually go or not. Not going to protest if I do go, might just observe. It's close to me anyway, less than 10 miles away. I wanted to go to Bernie's rally in Bmore but I probably can't make that one.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
If the CA and IN numbers that have been coming out today hold up, I have a hard time seeing how Trump doesn't reach 1237.

As for the close CA race on the Dem side, meh. It's over, and Devine seems to be signaling that they'll wind things down after the shellacking they'll receive this coming Tuesday.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
I'd imagine those "Clinton supporters" from 2008 are Hillaryis44 nutjobs or the racist Democrat demographic that voted for a white woman over a black man more than anything, and that in 2012, and this year, will vote Republican too.

Like how sitting President Obama only won 57% in the primary of Northern liberal state and bastion of democracy Oklahoma in 2012.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Macho Madness said:
Benchmark predicts CT as 55/45 for Hillary.

http://www.benchmarkpolitics.com/2016/04/connecticut-final-county-benchmarks.html
Click to expand...

It's a bad write up because they don't seem to know much about the state outside of Fairfield, but yeah, this is right.

Macho Madness said:
Eh, it's an indicator of a tightening national race. Which is happening.

We'll see if it changes after next week.

Bernie is winning Latinos by 19 in that CA poll by the way.
Click to expand...

I doubt he is winning Latinos by 19.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
Y2Kev said:
I don't believe California is that far apart on the R side or that close on the D side. This makes me unhappy with both of these polls now.
Click to expand...

I could totally see Trump being big with repubs in California, who all mostly hate illegal immigration and blame everything on them including traffic and crime and etc.

Fuck ... there's a local radio program here that plays on the way home from work called "John and Ken". I think 50% of their content is bitching about illegals.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Cybit said:
By the way, that article was written in MAY of 2008; so even further along the primary process (and Clinton was as dead at that point as Bernie is at this point). So whenever someone tells you that "2016 is worse than 2008" or "Bernie supporters are the worst ever"; I want you to remember that article.
Click to expand...
Was talking with my girlfriend a little about this.

2016 only seems worse to us (millennials anyway) because:

1) It's happening right now so we're more aware of it. Hillary defending her staying in the race by talking about Bobby Kennedy caused a huge shitstorm when it happened, but several people had forgotten about it when it was brought up again recently.

2) The rise of social media means everyone's opinions are going to be on full blast and people have a tendency to act like fucking dicks on Facebook. Some of my Bernie or bust friends have said shit to me on fb or via text that I know they wouldn't say to my face. I think it's also much easier to reason with people face-to-face and talk them down from an extreme position than online when it's just words on a screen.

3) We're eight years older and far more aware of our surroundings. I was still in high school in 2008. It is totally conceivable for say, a Bernie voter to have been 9 years old in 2008. It might be different for others but I had no sense of political awareness at all when I was that age.

4) The millennial candidate won in 2008. He's losing badly in 2016 so people are being way more pissy about it.

Going off that last point, I almost think it's best for peoples' first election to not go the way they hope as I feel it gives them a more grounded sense of what can and can't happen. 2004 was the first election I paid attention to and I was certainly upset, but it also reminds me that yes, there are enough people in this country willing to elect a moronic conservative Republican to the most important position in government. Many of my Bernie-supporting friends can't fathom how any of the Republican candidates could beat Bernie in a general election. I blew my friend's mind the other night by telling him about Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and how that alone may have sunk Kerry's chances. Democrats could nominate Jesus Christ and Republicans would find a way to lie, cheat and steal their way into the White House and there are enough people willing to believe it. That Hillary is so unpopular seems like a detriment to many Bernie supporters, but to others she's just battle tested.
 
C

Crayons

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
"You know, it's very strange. They asked me a question about transgender people and I said 'oh, that should be a state issue' but then Ted here, he starts talking about children getting raped. First of all, I'm going to be the best at dealing with child molesters-The best. If you put hands on a kid, you're going away, believe me, believe me. But that's the thing with Ted, whenever you talk about this stuff, he starts talking about child rape. And it's very strange, you know Ted talks a lot about how he spanks his daughter-and don't get me wrong, I'm pro spanking when kids get out of line. But Lyin' Ted here, he says he spanks his daughter whenever she lies, which is, you know, a total joke. He's Lyin' Ted! But he talks about spanking his daughter a lot which, you know, I mean, I don't talk about spanking that much, I don't think most people do. It just seems like he talks a lot about how he puts his hands on his daughter. And then Ted is constantly thinking about all these odd ways that kids could be molested and he has kind of this look-you know, the eyes and the face, you get what I mean-and it's just very strange. Ted's a liar, but he's a really strange guy."


DO IT, TRUMP.
Click to expand...
http://vocaroo.com/i/s14WP24OxSCx

I wish I could speak with a Trump-ccent
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Speaking only for myself, I was angrier at Hillary in 2008 than I am at Bernie now. Not so much because I think her campaign was worse but because at this point I have more perspective. I can chalk up a lot of his nonsense to just being the sorts of things losing campaigns do.
 
T

Touchdown

Banned
Box of Kittens said:
Speaking only for myself, I was angrier at Hillary in 2008 than I am at Bernie now. Not so much because I think her campaign was worse but because at this point I have more perspective. I can chalk up a lot of his nonsense to just being the sorts of things losing campaigns do.
Click to expand...

this, this, this. Yas.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
"You know, it's very strange. They asked me a question about transgender people and I said 'oh, that should be a state issue' but then Ted here, he starts talking about children getting raped. First of all, I'm going to be the best at dealing with child molesters-The best. If you put hands on a kid, you're going away, believe me, believe me. But that's the thing with Ted, whenever you talk about this stuff, he starts talking about child rape. And it's very strange, you know Ted talks a lot about how he spanks his daughter-and don't get me wrong, I'm pro spanking when kids get out of line. But Lyin' Ted here, he says he spanks his daughter whenever she lies, which is, you know, a total joke. He's Lyin' Ted! But he talks about spanking his daughter a lot which, you know, I mean, I don't talk about spanking that much, I don't think most people do. It just seems like he talks a lot about how he puts his hands on his daughter. And then Ted is constantly thinking about all these odd ways that kids could be molested and he has kind of this look-you know, the eyes and the face, you get what I mean-and it's just very strange. Ted's a liar, but he's a really strange guy."


DO IT, TRUMP.
Click to expand...

No way. I can't think of any group in America that would be more "pro spanking children" than Donald Trump supporters.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
shinra-bansho said:
I'd imagine those "Clinton supporters" from 2008 are Hillaryis44 nutjobs or the racist Democrat demographic that voted for a white woman over a black man more than anything, and that in 2012, and this year, will vote Republican too.
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure 35% of Clinton supporters in 2008 are not Hillaryis44 nutjobs + racist Dems. Pretty sure even 16% of them were not that.

Per http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Clinton got 18 million votes in the Dem primaries. So, in order for your assertion to be correct, that would mean nearly 3 million (2.88) hillary supporters fall into "racist democrats" and "Hillary is 44" nutjobs.

Gonna guess that's not quite the case. :p
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Box of Kittens said:
Speaking only for myself, I was angrier at Hillary in 2008 than I am at Bernie now. Not so much because I think her campaign was worse but because at this point I have more perspective. I can chalk up a lot of his nonsense to just being the sorts of things losing campaigns do.
Click to expand...

Most of the difference between Clinton supporters willing to support Bernie and Bernie willing to support Clinton comes down to the fact that Clinton has been winning for a long time. It's easier to be magnanimous when you have known for months you are going to win. The question isn't a real decision to you. From that first link

Obama voters appear to be more willing to support Clinton in November. In Indiana, 59 percent of Obama backers said they'd vote for Clinton, and 70 percent of Obama backers in North Carolina said they'd support the New York Democrat.
Click to expand...

So either Obama supporters in 2008 were magically more magnanimous than Clinton supporters....ooorrr the Obama supporters were more likely to support Clinton because they knew they really wouldn't have to make that actual decision, and instead chose the "right" answer. :D

Humans gonna human.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Current Ohio shooting summary.

8 dead, 7 adults and one 16 year old.
3 babies were near parents when shot but survived and were uninjured
Shooter still at large.
All victims are related.
 
H

Holmes

Member
I'm on my computer now so I'm going to use this gif
Macho Madness said:
Indiana

Trump 41
Cruz 33
Kasich 16
Click to expand...

Macho Madness said:
California

Trump 49
Cruz 22
Kasich 20
Click to expand...
tumblr_inline_o5eg37XrJV1tpwy2m_500.gif
 
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