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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam

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I read that as "the marriage for-profit prison system" and was very confused.
 
Sam Stein ‏@samsteinhp 3m3 minutes ago
Clinton tonight on MSNBC: "I am going to have a cabinet that looks like America, and 50 percent of America is women, right?”

She's right.

More importantly, they're 55% of the GE electorate.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
I propose that these memes are both dank, and moist

like Cruz's canned soup collection being slurped longingly through kasich's pursed lips
 
Eh. You're reading too much into it. Trump did this same kind of dismissive stuff about Obama's birth certificate, but to a lesser extent, back in 2012. He plays dumb. He likes to assume the role of this guy who just happens to not know the specifics of certain things because he's not a politician.

He plays dumb when it's convenient, sure. Dodging the birther stuff is strategic. But that David Duke thing, he seemed legitimately confused, and had to employ the 'I have no idea about anything you're talking about' response like he was coached to do that if it happens at a bad time, like a live TV interview. The Trump campaign could always explain it away later no matter how awkward it seemed. The explanation was a bad earpiece, yet Trump repeated Duke's name a few times yet still insisted he had no idea. He acknowledged and established that he heard the words David, Duke, white and supremacists in his response to the question. There was no benefit to make himself look that bad- especially considering his ego and that he publicly made a statement about this very issue just the day before.
 
Why is Cruz only hitting Trump on the fact that Trump thinks trans people should be allowed to use the bathroom instead of the fact that Trump ran a fraud university?
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
National GE

Clinton 50
Trump 39

Clinton 49
Cruz 42

Kasich 46
Clinton 41

Sanders 52
Trump 37

Sanders 50
Cruz 38

Sanders 44
Kasich 43

USAToday/Suffolk

Wouldn't be shocked at all to see the RNC take Kasich at the convention.

I love how the more Cruz is in the news, the more his GE numbers drop.
 
Wouldn't be shocked at all to see the RNC take Kasich at the convention.

I love how the more Cruz is in the news, the more his GE numbers drop.

I would be shocked. Let's assume they can pull off a bunch of rules changes that screw over both Trump and Cruz, allowing them to nominate pretty much whomever they want, which is already a stretch given how much Cruz has been working the delegate game. Why would they go for the guy who's pissed a bunch of them off and has the stench of losing, badly, to both Trump and Cruz when they could just go with someone like Paul Ryan instead?
 

Crocodile

Member
Stop flooding the topic with dumb memes >_<

Why is Cruz only hitting Trump on the fact that Trump thinks trans people should be allowed to use the bathroom instead of the fact that Trump ran a fraud university?

A) They already tried the Trump University attack angle. Nobody seems to care *shrug*
B) Cruz is a monster so he does as a monster does? *shrug*
 

Iolo

Member
In 2008 didn't we hear that language around this time?

Here's what Wikipedia has to say. It was on the day of the final primaries.

On June 3, the day of the final primaries in South Dakota and Montana, Obama rolled out about sixty superdelegate endorsements. Those endorsements, together with the pledged delegates awarded in the final primaries, put him well over the "magic number" of 2,117 delegate votes necessary for a majority at the Democratic National Convention. By early in the evening, all major news organizations had announced that Obama had clinched the Democratic nomination, and Obama claimed the status of presumptive nominee in a speech in St. Paul, Minnesota. Clinton did not concede the nomination in her election night speech, saying that she would be "making no decisions tonight".[121] On the morning of June 5, Clinton posted on her website an open letter to her supporters, which she also sent by e-mail that day. It announced that on Saturday (June 7) Clinton would endorse Obama's candidacy.

Note: she might become the presumptive nominee once she clinches including supers, so 2383.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Why is Cruz only hitting Trump on the fact that Trump thinks trans people should be allowed to use the bathroom instead of the fact that Trump ran a fraud university?
Because conservative heroes are constantly scamming people out of their money. That's a feature, not a bug. Ten years from now Ted Cruz will be hawking bullshit products in commercials on Fox News.
 
What are the chance they will run Kaisch?

Almost none. I think maybe Jeb! could have pulled together a bully pit to have the delegates switch to him in a contested. But not Kasich. He doesn't have the pull within the party and they aren't organized enough to all band behind him.
 
Bears repeating.

Agreed. Most candidates win with a minimal number of that demographic, so I don't see a reason to throw out the Obama coalition to maybe earn their votes (which are obviously fewer in number given Hillary's lead).

I updated the margin requirements for Sanders assuming benchmark politics is close.

http://DemRace.com/?share=IxdT4Yua

Basically put after tomorrow he will need to make up 240 delegates in the remaining contests, basically requiring him to get 58.6% of the remaining delegates. Actually it's worse than that even, i'd have to put it in a spreadsheet to get the updated totals.

What's really crazy about this is that it requires Sanders to only lose DC. Not Guam, PR, New Mexico, New Jersey, etc... Not a single one of those. That's just an insane stretch to try and earn, so I really don't see it happening.
 
NYTimes writes article defending man who assaulted his girlfriend because, what the fuck?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/25/s...t-machine.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

People that commit intimate partner violence are scum and subhuman, the NFL draft didn't make Manziel into a miserable human being, Manziel did.

Because conservative heroes are constantly scamming people out of their money. That's a feature, not a bug. Ten years from now Ted Cruz will be hawking bullshit products in commercials on Fox News.

True.

It's probably the most truly Republican feature Trump has other than the overwhelming racism and misogyny.
 
I just fucking love the fact that Trump is making fun of Kasich eating like a savage lmao

It's just so juvenile and dumb, but it burns a hole in your soul. Kasich probably got blindsided like a moron on that one. Classic Trump.
 
NYTimes writes article defending man who assaulted his girlfriend because, what the fuck?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/25/s...t-machine.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

People that commit intimate partner violence are scum and subhuman, the NFL draft didn't make Manziel into a miserable human being, Manziel did.

With all the brain damage these folks get, I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with a Texas Bell Tower incident as a result of it. But holy hell, Manziel isn't that person. He was a QB that rarely got hit, and he was a shithead ever since he got to A&M. He's 100% responsible for those actions, and he should be punished harshly for it.
 
Wow was this interview as terrible as the transcript makes it sound?

HAYES: -- one of the sort of sources of your -- of your -- your critique, right, when you talk about why the system is broken, um, has to do with an answer you gave to my colleague, Chuck Todd, about turnout in states and, um, you said something about, you know, a -- lower voting turnout of poor people, right?

SANDERS: Yes.

HAYES: And -- and you got some heat for that. It is (INAUDIBLE)...

SANDERS: Why did I get heat on it?

Poor people...

HAYES: A...

SANDERS: -- voted for -- voted (INAUDIBLE)...

HAYES: Right.
 

itschris

Member
National GE

Clinton 50
Trump 39

Clinton 49
Cruz 42

Kasich 46
Clinton 41

Sanders 52
Trump 37

Sanders 50
Cruz 38

Sanders 44
Kasich 43

USAToday/Suffolk

I was curious what an 11-point Clinton win would look like on the electoral college map. I did two maps, one based on 2008, and the other based on 2012. In 2008, Obama won by 7.2 points, so it would be a 3.8% swing. In 2012, Obama won by 3.9%, so a 7.1% swing. So, here are the maps with states flipped if they were within 3.8 or 7.1:

Based on 2008:

WddckNC.png


Based on 2012:

b1VwcOG.png


With 2008 as the base, Montana and Missouri flip. Georgia is under 2 points, but not quite there. With 2012, North Carolina and Nebraska's 2nd congressional district flip (edit: actually, the Nebraska CD was at 7.16%, so it would be on the razor's edge for whether it would flip or not). Georgia is even closer this time, under 1 point, but still not enough. Arizona and Missouri are around 2 points from flipping. Surprisingly, even though the 2012 base has a bigger swing, there was only 1 red state and 1 CD close enough to switch.

Of course, this is a bit naive. With the different dynamics of the race and demographic changes (especially since 2008), I wouldn't be too surprised to see something like this in November:

lrUAetp.png
 
I wonder what Hillary would focus on if she gets 52+ Dems in the Senate and 218+ in the House.
Passing Super Citizens United

Protect Wall Street Act of 2017

Crime Bill of 1994 Reauthorization Act (Amended to harm more black people)

A Measure Eliminating Reddit, Internet, Completely Absorbed by NeoGAF Act (AMERICAN Act)

25edA6
 
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