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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

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Necrovex

Member
Wanted to hear y'all's opinion on respected editorial writers from the left and right? I'm a Democrat but I recognize it's important to get both viewpoints to better form my opinion. I wanted to insert more writers into my Feedly account as I have time to read news and political opinions. I currently have Krugman and Brooks (both NYT), 538, and a couple of Vox writers (I read Ezra and Matt are both top-notch writers).
 

pigeon

Banned
I think it depends. Ivanka is a demigoddess and probably knows she needs to ditch Corey if her father has any chance at winning. His sons though are cave trolls.

Ivanka did a bunch of fundraising for Cory Booker before her dad started running for President. How much is she actually invested in Donald Trump becoming president? I can tell you that although I love my dad I would not vote for him.


In other news, and in an attempt to check whether Metaphoreus is still alive:

SCOTUS denied cert in Shew v Malloy, the challenge to CT's assault weapons ban. Denial means the ban (on some semi-automatic rifles and large-capacity magazines) will stay in place.

SCOTUS also held that robbing a drug dealer is interstate commerce even if you only get goods, not cash; that private RICO claims cannot recover for injuries abroad but government RICO suits can; that it is constitutional to search somebody who you arrested on a valid warrant even if your original stop of them was illegal because you didn't know about the warrant at first; and that if the DoL changes rules about who qualifies for overtime without explaining why they changed them it doesn't count.
 

ampere

Member
Illegal search and seizure being OK if the person happens to have a warrant sounds really bad and might set a dangerous precedent. Agree with Sotomayor's dissent
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
I'm not entirely sure those get released. Cybit would know better though. All I know is I've never seen one.

They usually don't get released - just because you don't want someone being able to reverse engineer your assumptions and (potentially) your data set.

I'm not really looking for the content but more so the style. I have a job interview/test and want to kind of understand who they are written.

I imagine public polling memos (like ppp or luntz) would be stylistically the same just with different data?

Pretty much. The biggest advantage of internals is that they can be done much quicker and in response to events rather than public polling memos that tend to take a few days. You can also try out interesting assumptions ("unskewing" being the famous example) and not have to publicly detail what they are.
 
Really though, how much of a scrub is Paul Manafort?

He's been failing for months now to outmaneuver a guy stupid enough to plant negative stories about Trump's son in law in the media.

How bad is Manafort at politics?
 
There's a Change.org petition demanding we make Bernie the nominee. And the guy who started it set his profile picture to him lifting his shirt and showing his abs. He wants 8 million signatures. He's at 7k. Can someone convert that using FRAUD and retroactive momentum please

Now I've got Benchmark on the case too. They said they'd have their numbers ready some time around 11:30 PM on November 8.
 

pigeon

Banned
Really though, how much of a scrub is Paul Manafort?

He's been failing for months now to outmaneuver a guy stupid enough to plant negative stories about Trump's son in law in the media.

How bad is Manafort at politics?

Let me put it this way, the last politician he worked for lost his job because his election led to a civil war.
 
Wanted to hear y'all's opinion on respected editorial writers from the left and right? I'm a Democrat but I recognize it's important to get both viewpoints to better form my opinion. I wanted to insert more writers into my Feedly account as I have time to read news and political opinions. I currently have Krugman and Brooks (both NYT), 538, and a couple of Vox writers (I read Ezra and Matt are both top-notch writers).
Fareed Zakaria. Sure, he plagiarizes, but he's still a phenomenal source of information and viewpoints you might not have considered.
 
I know Diamond Joe and Worm get a lot of love, but I think my favorite Onion version of a politician is when they write John Kerry articles where he's like this Indiana Jones type adventure hero getting in drinking contests with KGB guards and wooing Saudi princesses.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I know Diamond Joe and Worm get a lot of love, but I think my favorite Onion version of a politician is when they write John Kerry articles where he's like this Indiana Jones type adventure hero getting in drinking contests with KGB guards and wooing Saudi princesses.

We don't get nearly enough of those.
 

dramatis

Member
The Trump children are the bottom line, I suppose.

If the firing wasn't because Trump wanted to pivot, then I wonder what would happen to his campaign next.
 
@RyanGOP
According to NHGOP rules, Trump campaign cannot remove Corey as NH delegation chair to the convention. Can replace him only if he resigns.

qdg2rgb1memwoo04nivw.gif
 
Pretty much. The biggest advantage of internals is that they can be done much quicker and in response to events rather than public polling memos that tend to take a few days. You can also try out interesting assumptions ("unskewing" being the famous example) and not have to publicly detail what they are.

OK So looking at memos released to the public is good to get an idea about what they tend to pull out for internals?

I have the data they're gonna ask me about and put it in excel already so when they give me the questions tomorrow i'll be super ready
 
To me this merely suggests Trump's children are more competent than him, but that doesn't mean they are competent. His sons in particular have a knack for saying extreme things that mirror their father.

This sort of reminds me of 2012 when Romney's kids started taking more control of decision making. In that case it was a good idea: they correctly realized that the campaign was playing into Obama's hands by portraying Romney as just a successful businessman with no focus on humanizing him. I don't get the impression Trump's children are as competent as Romney's, and more importantly their father is a narcissistic sociopath with no redeeming qualities whereas Romney is a decent guy.

Nor is this the first time we heard the "Trump kids/son-in-law take over" narrative. And yet Trump remains Trump. He's not going to change (long term).
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
OK So looking at memos released to the public is good to get an idea about what they tend to pull out for internals?

I have the data they're gonna ask me about and put it in excel already so when they give me the questions tomorrow i'll be super ready

Yeah. Really the biggest thing is about the assumptions each group makes. Composition of voting demographics, etc etc.
 
His tell all story is going to fetch a pretty penny to a big media company.

Can you imagine the money Fox or CNN or MSNBC are offering him right now for an exclusive interview.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Trump has done nearly everything the wrong way here.

My favorite part of this is that donors are saying Trump has to "do things the Manafort way," as if his way is some sort of blueprint for how elections are supposed to go.

To be fair, though, this benefits Trump. Lewandowski was terrible. Things can only get better from here on out. My guess is we see a more controlled message for a few months until the debates when they can't control him and then the wheels fall off.
 

pigeon

Banned
So I guess my opinion is that this will make it slightly less likely for Trump to get dumped, but probably doesn't change the fundamentals about his campaign. I don't think Lewandowski's presence was what made Trump behave the way he did, so I doubt him getting fired will change his behavior.

If Lewandowski was suppressing Manafort's efforts to hire people then Trump might actually start having a semblance of a campaign structure, which would help him. But he's still Trump.
 
Trump has done nearly everything the wrong way here.

My favorite part of this is that donors are saying Trump has to "do things the Manafort way," as if his way is some sort of blueprint for how elections are supposed to go.

To be fair, though, this benefits Trump. Lewandowski was terrible. Things can only get better from here on out. My guess is we see a more controlled message for a few months until the debates when they can't control him and then the wheels fall off.

I do not believe Trump will let someone control his messaging. We shall see obviously, but if Manafort could control Trump at all wouldn't we already know?
 
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