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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

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B-Dubs

No Scrubs
these articles focus far too much on the election/presidency rather than who is the best person to be VP

Well, it does touch a bit on why Obama picked Biden (and why W picked Cheney). Clinton doesn't really have the sort of deficits that require her to pick someone able to help her run the country from an administrative point of view. She doesn't want for institutional experience with the presidential bureaucracy or for connections and relationships on the Hill. She's strong in terms of foreign and domestic policy as she's a policy nerd. If anything she wants for a hype man to help sell her policies to the American people. Whoever gets picked as VP should be good at that, Clinton herself can tutor them on the rest of it and get them up to snuff.

It's right here.
oJR4z03.gif

What in the name of fuck is wrong with these people?
 

ApharmdX

Banned
It's the nature of large tent parties like the Democratics. The Leaders always have to be more "centrist" in order to be able to both attract and serve the interest of the constituencies. In order to be successful, the Democrats have to be open to both the lefties and even some of the more sane righties.

I recognize this, but at the same time it's frustrating to be in a party that includes positions that are anathema to us. You've got Democratic senators who oppose an assault rifle ban, who oppose gay marriage, in 2016, no less. It's our strength, being able to pull together disparate groups of voters, but it causes us some... indigestion, let's call it.

Despite Bernie's delusions of grandeur. There is no silent super left wing liberal majority in this country.

I don't think anyone is claiming there is such a group. The thinking is more that the majority would favor government expansions of the social safety net if they were more aware of the possibilities there, or if these expansions were sold to them in the right way.
 

pigeon

Banned
If he believed his opposition was illegitimate, he wouldn't allow the processes of the constitution and state to unjustly remove him, but he did.

He defied a Congressional request and then a Congressional subpoena, and threatened to defy the Supreme Court upholding that subpoena.

He didn't allow the processes of the constitution to remove him, he waited until his power and influence had been so eroded by the evidence of his wrongdoing that there was no chance that he would be able to resist articles of impeachment and eventually being forcibly removed from office. It's not like the military would have supported him against Congress at the point that he'd come to.

Acknowledging that you have no power to prevent an outcome isn't accepting the justice of that outcome.

btw what is slatepitch

It's when your pitch is extremely, usually deliberately counterintuitive, because Slate used to headline pretty much all of their articles with stuff like that. Matt Yglesias is the guy I think of as the king of the slatepitch.

Here is a historical article.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/browbeat/2009/10/22/the_slate_pitch_twitter_meme.html

Here is the original article that spawned the hashtag #slatepitch. Headline: "Creed is Good." http://www.slate.com/articles/arts/music_box/2009/10/creed_is_good.html
 

pigeon

Banned
I think Hillary carries Florida and carries it much more comfortably than people probably think (especially given it's past relevance in these elections).

And if Hillary wins Florida, it makes Trump's path to the Presidency super ridiculously unlikely.

Florida is ripe for a big turn blue this election and it's happening, IMO.

Agreed.

I don't believe that Florida is a swing state this year. I think it's lean D. The polls have consistently suggested as much.

The GOP has lost Cuban-Americans and they've severely antagonized Hispanics in general. They have no ground to stand on in Florida any more.
 

Crocodile

Member
He was on GMA this morning and it is trending on Facebook. The gymnastics people are doing to discredit him are pretty amazing. "Trump beat all the Repbulicans so this must be wrong!"


Edit: The closest races are AZ, CO, KS, MO, MS, GA, SC, NC !!!!

"Something something its a two-man race so it has to be 50/50 something something" (I think it was often Aaron who said things like this? Well he's right :p)


I can't decide if this fuckery is good because now these people have outed themselves and can't hide behind dog whistles or bad because I and others have to see this shit :/

Thanks Trump :/
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
538 Model is Out!

80%!

wGzIEtY.jpg


Edit: Okay that's Polls-Only, Polls-plus is 73.6%

Hey look, Virginia is the tipping point state, like we were talking about a full year ago. Looks my latest prediction that Trump does better in PA versus the country isn't really panning out in these early polls though.

Interesting the special stat section says clinton is the more likely candidate to win the popular vote but lose the electoral college. I guess with 3 Hillary must win states all at +7 with national polls at +7 it makes sense, but I suspect Virginia and Nevada to both be more inelastic than it's calculating. This is probably my most feared outcome in a close race.

Also, very funny that Hillary has a better chance at winning Utah than Trump has at winning the election according to that, but I suspect that the algorithm doesn't account for ceilings, which conventional wisdom probably says Hillary is nearing hers.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Well, it does touch a bit on why Obama picked Biden (and why W picked Cheney). Clinton doesn't really have the sort of deficits that require her to pick someone able to help her run the country from an administrative point of view. She doesn't want for institutional experience with the presidential bureaucracy or for connections and relationships on the Hill. She's strong in terms of foreign and domestic policy as she's a policy nerd. If anything she wants for a hype man to help sell her policies to the American people. Whoever gets picked as VP should be good at that, Clinton herself can tutor them on the rest of it and get them up to snuff.

This is a large part of why I'm not too stressed about her selection. Her top picks all have strong points and are non-dramatic, and she's in a strong enough position to where this is more a fun guessing game than a pivotal moment of destiny.



And holy Nayru at that video. It's 2016, and campaign affiliates are still doing this..
 
"Great people, i hope, i mean we have to vet the vets, you have to be careful, but who knows! i think great. i think great people. and some of them are great, we know that for a fact. "

Donald Trump (GOP Presidential Candidate) on veteran protestors complaining about donations that had not been sent.
 

Iolo

Member
I recognize this, but at the same time it's frustrating to be in a party that includes positions that are anathema to us. You've got Democratic senators who oppose an assault rifle ban, who oppose gay marriage, in 2016, no less. It's our strength, being able to pull together disparate groups of voters, but it causes us some... indigestion, let's call it.

Yes, and the alternative is fracturing along factional lines like the Republicans are doing and being unable to govern or win.

If it makes you feel better, pretend the groups of voters are separate parties in a coalition government.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
This is a large part of why I'm not too stressed about her selection. Her top picks all have strong points and are non-dramatic, and she's in a strong enough position to where this is more a fun guessing game than a pivotal moment of destiny.

I mean, short of going left field and picking adam's mom there isn't going to be much of an issue with any of them.
 

kirblar

Member
Hey look, Virginia is the tipping point state, like we were talking about a full year ago. Looks my latest prediction that Trump does better in PA versus the country isn't really panning out in these early polls though.

Interesting the special stat section says clinton is the more likely candidate to win the popular vote but lose the electoral college. I guess with 3 Hillary must win states all at +7 with national polls at +7 it makes sense, but I suspect Virginia and Nevada to both be more inelastic than it's calculating. This is probably my most feared outcome in a close race.

Also, very funny that Hillary has a better chance at winning Utah than Trump has at winning the election according to that, but I suspect that the algorithm doesn't account for ceilings, which conventional wisdom probably says Hillary is nearing hers.
PA polls systemically undercount black voters, right? I seem to remember that being a problem every time as to why it always seems to flirt with the GOP then go lolno.
 
I mean, short of going left field and picking adam's mom there isn't going to be much of an issue with any of them.

My mom wouldn't survive the vetting process.

Vetter: So, tell us, what is your financial--
My Mom: Fuck off, What business is it of yours?
Vetter: Well, see what...
My Mom: I want your supervisor.
Vetter: I don't thi--
My Mom: GET YOUR FUCKING BOSS IN HERE NOW.
 

HylianTom

Banned
File this under "Completely Unsurprising":

@RalstonReports:
I've been told about two other reliable polls taken recently in NV that mirror the @DCCC one I tweeted. HRC up by mid single digits here.

Nevada isn't a swing state this year.
 
Trump is the most anti-veteran conservative candidate possible. In favor of using torture techniques that will make conditions worse for our troops, pretends to donate money to veterans charities, claims that his prep school training was better preparation than boot camp and says that John McCain is a coward because he got caught.

Just goes to show you how phoney many of these supporters are. They'll wave flags all day long, but are more than happy to dismiss any of the real problems that war causes.
 
File this under "Completely Unsurprising":

@RalstonReports:


Nevada isn't a swing state this year.

Nevada just isn't a swing state. Dems have a such a strong turnout operation/advantage (i.e., they are all in one city) there that I just don't see how it ever flips back. I mean, if Reid could pull out a win that one year....
 
He's shitting on retail politics, and pretending that he's essentially tied.

He's cheering the fact that he has no staff. HAHAHAHA.

My god, this is a fucking dumpster fire.
 
Trump is the most anti-veteran conservative candidate possible. In favor of using torture techniques that will make conditions worse for our troops, pretends to donate money to veterans charities, claims that his prep school training was better preparation than boot camp and says that John McCain is a coward because he got caught.

Just goes to show you how phoney many of these supporters are. They'll wave flags all day long, but are more than happy to dismiss any of the real problems that war causes.

You forgot to add that he is a draft dodger.
 
"They call them walking heads"

NO ONE CALLS THE MEDIA THAT.

No one who attacked him during the primary should ever be allowed to run for public office again. Jesus fucking Christ this guy.
 

Hazzuh

Member
From the UK, watching this trump rally to take my mind off UK politics...

At least you guys aren't actually gonna let this dude win lol.
 
He has just spent the last 5 minutes talking about the GOP candidate pledge in the middle of talking endlessly about TPP being a bad deal and him doing better deals.

Listening to Trump is like getting stuck in a long bathroom line next to someone who has done way too much blow and you feel like you are about to piss your pants.
 
Agreed.

I don't believe that Florida is a swing state this year. I think it's lean D. The polls have consistently suggested as much.

The GOP has lost Cuban-Americans and they've severely antagonized Hispanics in general. They have no ground to stand on in Florida any more.

Yup. And there's also the Jewish vote, which Obama carried but by both smaller margins and smaller turnouts. I think Hillary win bring those voters back.

She also will do better than Obama with college educated voters, which a lot exist there, especially Southern Florida.

I don't think Florida will be one of the 3 closest states this time around. You add in college educated, Jewish, and Cuban/latino votes and I think Florida will be called quite quickly compared to the past.
 
I cannot deny that nixon was racist and said some horrific, indefensible things. (mostly in private to his friends, like 99% of white americans of his time) The only resistance I can muster is that the dude was born in 1913. That was the year before World War 1 broke out. The world was completely different, and insanely more bigoted than the way it is today. Also, he was raised by his quaker mother to be loving of other peoples, and iirc he had a black friend that was under investigation by the fbi for being a communist that he bailed out. He was far more liberal on race than nearly every president that preceded him,and upheld the desegregation of public schools, which was a tremendous thing that liberals would be killed for doing. It was another thing, like going to china, that only someone of his caliber could accomplish. Nixon deserves more love around here
Hey, I actually like most of Nixon's foreign policy, but I'm pretty sure he ran on and successfully stalled the desegregation of most schools. My only point was that a racist can win as long as he hides his racism.

Also, I keep forgetting you're the only Republican on PoliGAF lol.
 
"They call them walking heads"

NO ONE CALLS THE MEDIA THAT.

No one who attacked him during the primary should ever be allowed to run for public office again. Jesus fucking Christ this guy.

I'm not watching the speech, is he making some made up nonsensical play on "talking heads" / "walking dead" or is he just confusing the term "talking heads"?

The latter is the kind of thing that makes me think there's something Wrong with a capital W about him.
 
I missed Trump because CNN was daring to cover the actual news of the summit press conference? Those bastards! Bragging about having no staff is pretty awesome, though. Having a large staff is typically the thing you like to brag about, behind closed doors at least.

And NAFTA, hah. Yeah he doesn't understand how any of this works. Edit: Ooh, bragging about his numbers with Hispanics in today's poll, lol.
Listening to Trump is like getting stuck in a long bathroom line next to someone who has done way too much blow and you feel like you are about to piss your pants.
That's waaaaaaay too specific an example for you to have not experienced this in the past.
 
I'm not watching the speech, is he making some made up nonsensical play on "talking heads" / "walking dead" or is he just confusing the term "talking heads"?

The latter is the kind of thing that makes me think there's something Wrong with a capital W about him.

Ya, he got confused. And he's pulling out of NAFTA. And China is going to get punished for reasons. And he got people to boo Romney. And Bernie hates Hillary. And he's winning Latinos because one poll shows him getting 33%. And Obama hates black youth.
 

Holmes

Member
Trump and his merry band of racists visiting your city and having a rally is the perfect reminder for why to vote against him.
 
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