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[brianmcdoogle]

What's up with Nevada? Bad/little polling?

 

[royalan]

She's a weak candidate running against weaker ones.

You know I love her...but she's been damaged by some shit over the last few years. Benghazi, although mostly a GOP witch hunt, is still not a great look, even though she technically did nothing wrong. The email thing is far from ideal. Again, even if she's technically been vindicated. Yes, part of this is the result of 25 years of GOP smears...but she didn't help herself.

I don' think shes' a weak candidate, though. She's insanely smart. She knows how to work the system. She has the money. She has the people. She has built a fairly strong coalition of voters. These things are all true, and would have been true no matter who she was running against.

I would never say Hillary isn't flawed. She's definitely flawed.

But people seem to be holding her up against the My Most Perfect Candidate that they have in their heads to say that she's "incredibly lucky" to be running against Trump. When all we really have to go on are the candidates who ran this year on both sides. I'm not seeing anyone really strong enough to run against her and win. Lord knows none of the clowns and robots on the Right could have, although it would have been framed as a more traditional election with anyone but Trump.

 

[jack_package_200]

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/Dcorps_WV_BG_063016.pdf

So, here's some battleground state polls. They were released on the 30th, I guess? In the field from June 11-20th. The margin of error in each state is like 5.66% so....grain of salt.

National across all Battleground States:
Queen 49
Trump 41

Arizona
Trump 48
Queen 43

Florida
Queen 52
Trump 39

Michigan
Queen 50
Trump 39

North Carolina
Queen 51
Trump 41

New Hampshire
Queen 51
Trump 47

Nevada
Trump 47
Queen 45

Ohio
Trump 48
Queen 47

Pennsylvania
Queen 49
Trump 39

Wisconsin
Queen 47
Trump 36

Thats all she needs

Aw yes

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Hillary is a solid candidate. Make her a guy with those credentials and you would have a knock out candidate with half the imaginary baggage. One of the most qualified candidates of the past 30 years and I hesitate because i don't know HW Bush well.

 

[Y2Kev]

Dunno. Kinda don't trust those. Florida would end the election at like 8PM.

 

[User 463088]

In all possible futures, Democrats keep the presidency until 2028.

Though Kamala's win in 2024 will be a squeaker.

And my loss in the 2040 election due to FRAUD and rampant drag queen suppression leads me to form the YASSS QUEEEN WERK Party in 2044. I lose the popular vote by 11 million, but win the electoral college with the following map:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/MR334

(I'm the yellow party.)

My Vice President, the reanimated corpse of Cher, and I run on a pro Wig, pro-tucking platform. We are impeached within 90 days, because I had an illicit affair with the Congress. But only the male members under 50.

Former President Clinton (Chelsea) is selected by Supreme Court Justice Malia Obama to replace me. I retire in disgrace to fire island, where I open a drag themed bed and breakfast called "Tuck Yo' Sheets."

 

[thepotatoman]

I think people are way too soft on Biden. His general likability and approval are functions of the fact he just doesn't do much. This guy has had two failed presidential campaigns. He's a genuinely poor candidate, and I struggle to think how the Bernie-left would receive someone to the right of Hillary.

I like Joe and I think most people like Joe. I think the minute he steps into the foray, way fewer people like Joe. Now, obviously no one likes Hillary. But she comes with the network and the machine (at least!) to mitigate that. Biden had time to decide if he was going to run for president and he did nothing. I think it's clear that people who think he elected not to run because of his son are romanticizing his general poor candidacy.

I think this is sort of a lost year for analyzing the Democratic bench's potential. I don't think anyone wanted to step in Hillary's way. I would have liked to see how someone like Kristen Gillibrand would poll against someone like Marco Rubio.

That's my point. Biden could not run because Hillary won the invisible primary that he would have needed to win in order to have that network and machine. It was clear since before Obama won the general that she was going to be next in line, no questions asked, no matter how unlikable she ends up being in the general public.

Similarly someone like Gillibrand or any other candidate could not run because there was no groundwork laid for anyone to be talked about as a potential democratic nominee except Hillary.

For all the talk about insiders knowing what's best for the party, they sure seemed to come pretty damn close to gifting republicans all three branches of government thanks to them betting it all on Hillary years and years in advance, potentially only saved thanks to Trump.

 

[User1608]

I don't know why I should be surprised NH is supporting Trump that much. Ew. Sucks because I've gone to the state and it's pretty lovely from my experiences.

Also still holding out hope AZ can turn blue or that it's closer at least.

And yes, I know, grain of salt.

 

[sc0la]

*reads adam's post*

...

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Hillary is one of the most disliked presidential candidates in U.S. history, but it may just be that this is the new normal.

I mean, some guy who wears "88" and Confederate flag pins will probably end up winning the 2020 primary so Hillary might be okay.

Ted Cruz is also hated by all Republicans that don't compare abortion to the Holocaust. He ended the primary at like 40/60 favorable/unfavorable among Republicans alone. He's never going to be the nominee, but I can't tell who will be next.

 

[royalan]

That's my point. Biden could not run because Hillary won the invisible primary that he would have needed to win in order to have that network and machine. It was clear since before Obama won the general that she was going to be next in line, no questions asked, no matter how unlikable she ends up being in the general public.

Similarly someone like Gillibrand or any other candidate could not run because there was no groundwork laid for anyone to be talked about as a potential democratic nominee except Hillary.

For all the talk about insiders knowing what's best for the party, they sure seemed to come pretty damn close to gifting republicans all three branches of government thanks to them betting it all on Hillary years and years in advance, potentially only saved thanks to Trump.

This doesn't make any sense for the simple fact that Obama won the primary in '08. Do you think all the machinery and "invisible primaries" to you're talking about now didn't exist back then?

Hillary is one of the most disliked presidential candidates in U.S. history, but it may just be that this is the new normal.

I mean, some guy who wears a 88 and Confederate flag pins will probably end up winning the 2020 primary so Hillary might be okay.

If this election has taught me anything, it's that likability really doesn't mean much. Or at the very least there are other factors that take precedent.

It's meaningless, like the "evangelical voter."

 

[Box of Kittens]

Stop talking about 2020 for God's sake, you're not Nostradamus

Agreed. There's way too many unknowns to say much of anything with any confidence.

 

[aspiegamer]

Those FL and NC margins are absolutely terminal. Clinton can easily get to 270 without either of those states, but Trump 100% must absolutely win both to have any kind of path. VA's not polled, I see, but that's another Trump must absolutely have. For the first time in awhile Ohio arguably isn't the most important state.

 

[User 463088]

*reads adam's post*

...

Well, I was going to offer you Secretary of the Flaming Hole where the East Coast Used to Be. But, fine. Be that way.

 

[brianmcdoogle]

Those FL and NC margins are absolutely terminal. Clinton can easily get to 270 without either of those states, but Trump 100% must absolutely win both to have any kind of path. VA's not polled, I see, but that's another Trump must absolutely have. For the first time in awhile Ohio arguably isn't the most important state.

Sam Wang's (Princeton Election) with Trump over-performing current polls by 2%:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/princeton-election-consortium-trump-outperforms-polls

299-224

Spoiler

Clinton wins

Even flip Florida.

 

[Ecotic]

I would never say Hillary isn't flawed. She's definitely flawed.

But people seem to be holding her up against the My Most Perfect Candidate that they have in their heads to say that she's "incredibly lucky" to be running against Trump. When all we really have to go on are the candidates who ran this year on both sides. I'm not seeing anyone really strong enough to run against her and win. Lord knows none of the clowns and robots on the Right could have, although it would have been framed as a more traditional election with anyone but Trump.

Regardless of how intellectually, the Republican candidates may have been clowns to us, quite a few such as Rubio or Kasich polled very well against Hillary into the spring until the polling organizations stopped polling the inevitable losers.

Hillary's unfavorables and untrustworthiness is so high I think any Republican that wasn't blatantly impeachable like Trump would have won or stood an even chance against her. A far greater percentage of the country than expected of a generic Democrat thinks she's just revolting. I'm a Democrat who was never in Bernie's wing of the party and I can barely stomach her.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Regardless of how intellectually, the Republican candidates may have been clowns to us, quite a few such as Rubio or Kasich polled very well against Hillary into the spring until the polling organizations stopped polling the inevitable losers.

Hillary's unfavorables and untrustworthiness is so high I think any Republican that wasn't blatantly impeachable like Trump would have won or stood an even chance against her. A far greater percentage of the country than expected of a generic Democrat thinks she's just revolting. I'm a Democrat who was never in Bernie's wing of the party and I can barely stomach her.

Rubio was underwater with Republicans in favorability by the end of the primary and just how extreme he is wasn't touched on because no one cared about Rubio during the primary except people that wanted Rubio to win (and thus didn't want to talk about how extreme he was).

Rubio's signature thing was foreign policy where he argued that we needed to start a civil war in Iraq and possibly overthrow the government again.

 

[B-Dubs]

Regardless of how intellectually, the Republican candidates may have been clowns to us, quite a few such as Rubio or Kasich polled very well against Hillary into the spring until the polling organizations stopped polling the inevitable losers.

Hillary's unfavorables and untrustworthiness is so high I think any Republican that wasn't blatantly impeachable like Trump would have won or stood an even chance against her. A far greater percentage of the country than expected of a generic Democrat thinks she's just revolting. I'm a Democrat who was never in Bernie's wing of the party and I can barely stomach her.

Yes, but they were polling more as generic-R than anything else. Rubio looks like someone who would be good on the surface, but what about an up close look? Kasich looks like a reasonable choice, most people in this thread think so, but he has massive temper issues when challenged by women and that would show in a debate. There's a reason the GOP has been trying to take her down before the ballot box and that's because they know they don't have anyone who plays on the level needed to take her. They'd need an Obama to pull it off and they don't have one.

 

[metalslimer]

Kasich may have been able to pull it off and probably could have won the popular vote. I still have trouble seeing the path for republicans through the electoral college though with the amount of swing states they need to pull. Hilary could lose 51-49 and still have pulled it off. Of course that's a nightmare scenario.

 

[B-Dubs]

Kasich may have been able to pull it off and probably could have won the popular vote. I still have trouble seeing the path for republicans through the electoral college though with the amount of swing states they need to pull. Hilary could lose 51-49 and still have pulled it off

Considering all the reports from female journalists about how he'd blow up at them anytime he was challenged on anything, he seems like even more of a ticking time bomb than Trump. Eventually he'd either blow up in a debate or in the wrong interview and that's all she wrote. Pretty much no one who we think would have stood a chance got much of a vetting this time around. Trump overshadowed all of their negatives.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Note that Kasich proposed on national TV that he would launch a ground invasion and occupation of Libya, Syria, and Iraq simultaneously.

And he's so irrelevant that no one cared.

Kasich would probably have beat Hillary, but it would have been close.

The GOP is divided between the older Republicans that fully embrace W's philosophy and ideas (which aren't popular anymore) and the newer Republicans who are fucking crazy. They need a new wave of less crazy people that have more popular ideas.

And then there's the third group that wants to cut Medicare and Social Security to pay for tax cuts and those people are even less popular than the other two groups.

 

[B-Dubs]

Note that Kasich proposed on national TV that he would launch a ground invasion and occupation of Libya, Syria, and Iraq simultaneously.

And he's so irrelevant that no one cared.

Kasich would probably have beat Hillary, but it would have been close.

The GOP is divided between the older Republicans that fully embrace W's philosophy and ideas (which aren't popular anymore) and the newer Republicans who are fucking crazy. They need a new wave of less crazy people.

And then there's the third group that wants to cut Medicare and Social Security to pay for tax cuts and those people are even less popular than the other two groups.

Honestly, I see no path for his victory. All she'd have to do is play the clip of him wanting to invade and occupy those nations over and over again and he's done. She's far from the strongest candidate in the world, but the GOP field is incredibly weak and she'd mop the floor with all of them.

 

[thepotatoman]

This doesn't make any sense for the simple fact that Obama won the primary in '08. Do you think all the machinery and "invisible primaries" to you're talking about now didn't exist back then?



If this election has taught me anything, it's that likability really doesn't mean much. Or at the very least there are other factors that take precedent.

It's meaningless, like the "evangelical voter."

You're talking about a once in a generation skilled politician that very nearly got crowded out of running if not for having some amount of support and pressure to run from party elites like Reid in a time before Citizen's United became a thing.

And favorability doesn't seem to matter as much in the primaries where there's some amount of strategic voting and vote splitting, but it certainly matters for the general election, when it's a simple matter of which one of two are you going to vote for.

 

[Yellowtail]

That's my point. Biden could not run because Hillary won the invisible primary that he would have needed to win in order to have that network and machine. It was clear since before Obama won the general that she was going to be next in line, no questions asked, no matter how unlikable she ends up being in the general public.

Similarly someone like Gillibrand or any other candidate could not run because there was no groundwork laid for anyone to be talked about as a potential democratic nominee except Hillary.

For all the talk about insiders knowing what's best for the party, they sure seemed to come pretty damn close to gifting republicans all three branches of government thanks to them betting it all on Hillary years and years in advance, potentially only saved thanks to Trump.

Biden's favorables went underwater three months into Obama's second term and stayed there until July 2015. Throughout that entire two year period Hillary was viewed more favorably both among Democrats and among the general electorate at large.

She didn't win the invisible primary because of her connections, although they obviously helped. She had the same network in 2006-7,but there were enough concerns about her electability for the likes of Reid and Schumer to talk Obama into running. No one in the Democratic leadership had those concerns this time around. She led primary polls by historic margins (including beating the sitting VP consistently by 40-50 points) and was thumping polled Republican opponents like Christie and Jeb by double digits in general election polls throughout 2013 and 2014. The party coalesced around her because she really did look like an unstoppable juggernaut in the primary and the strongest possible candidate to hold the White House for a third term. It's kind of crazy now to think how quickly the conventional wisdom went from "Hillary is inevitable!" to "Hillary is dangerously flawed!", but for a long time it really was the former.

It's easy enough now to say Biden would be the stronger candidate, but there's no reason to believe he'd have held up to the scrutiny of an actual candidacy. He didn't the last two times. That said in an alternate universe where he was the nominee he'd probably be in a much tighter race against Rubio. Only a Clinton could make the GOP become deranged enough to nominate Trump.

 

[royalan]

You're talking about a once in a generation skilled politician that very nearly got crowded out of running if not for having some amount of support and pressure to run from party elites like Reid in a time before Citizen's United became a thing.

And favorability doesn't seem to matter as much in the primaries where there's some amount of strategic voting and vote splitting, but it certainly matters for the general election, when it's a simple matter of which one of two are you going to vote for.

Of course Obama is a once in a generation politician, but if this machinery that existed solely to coronate Hillary actually existed, he still shouldn't and wouldn't have won.

Don't forget that Obama needed the superdelegates (the elite "machinery") to officially win the nomination, and they flocked to Obama over Hillary despite the fact that, unlike Bernie, Hillary actually managed to keep it essentially tied in the popular vote.

 

[User 463088]

Messing around with that Prisma app, thing. I kinda love this.

 

[Aaron Strife]

It's easy enough now to say Biden would be the stronger candidate, but there's no reason to believe he'd have held up to the scrutiny of an actual candidacy. He didn't the last two times. That said in an alternate universe where he was the nominee he'd probably be in a much tighter race against Rubio. Only a Clinton could make the GOP become deranged enough to nominate Trump.

Rubio made that extraordinarily stupid gaffe about Biden during his infamous "Let's dispel with the fiction" debate that Christie also busted his chops on. I think he'd be a legitimately shitty GE candidate.

 

[Yellowtail]

Looks like it's going to be Pence:

Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, little known nationally but highly admired in conservative circles, has a “95 percent probability” of being Donald Trump’s choice for vice president, The Washington Times has learned.

The sources for that assessment are Republicans close to the campaign and to the governor.

Mr. Pence also made a telling private call to Indiana Republican Party Chairman Jeff Cardwell, a Republican close to both men said.

In the call, the governor told Mr. Cardwell to delay his planned Tuesday departure to Cleveland for a Republican National Committee meeting, saying Mr. Cardwell needed to be sure to attend an Indianapolis fundraiser featuring Mr. Trump and Mr. Pence

Not Newt And no Newt probably means no Warren Who the fuck is going to get excited about a Pence/Kaine debate.

 

[Plinko]

Looks like it's going to be Pence:

Not Newt And no Newt probably means no Warren Who the fuck is going to get excited about a Pence/Kaine debate.

Hello, Governor Gregg!

 

[Teggy]

Pence? "Ask the gays" indeed.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Looks like it's going to be Pence:

Not Newt And no Newt probably means no Warren Who the fuck is going to get excited about a Pence/Kaine debate.

It may be Pence but outside of Byron York I don't trust any of the writers at WE. This is the same rag that published the rumor that Clarence Thomas was going to retire and literally no else buys that.

 

[Y2Kev]

"STUNNING VP CHOICE!!!" - Mark Halperin

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

GOP presidential tickets, Trumpence a bag... Trumpence a bag...

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Do the Moonies have sources?

 

[Spoiled Milk]

It's not going to be Pence. There's no way the WishyWashyTimes gets an insider tip before anyone else does.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Kingk and Macho. No way its Pence?


RIght.....?

 

[Clefargle]

Looks like it's going to be Pence:

Not Newt And no Newt probably means no Warren Who the fuck is going to get excited about a Pence/Kaine debate.

Could you please explain why newt would ensure Warren?

 

[Makai]

Betting markets sure believe it.

 

[VRMN]

Could you please explain why newt would ensure Warren?

His thinking is probably that Gingrich would be so reckless a choice to enable her to play risky with her own pick. Pence, the safe choice, would dictate her own safe choice.

 

[B-Dubs]

Could you please explain why newt would ensure Warren?

Newt and Trump would be 90's Misogyny personified. An all female ticket would explode the gender gap against them.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

someone gif me the debrief dump on Pence

Pros for Trump

Pros for Clinton

kthx

 

[itschris]

Tim Swarens, from the Indianapolis Star, had this to say in regards to Pence:

GOP insiders I've been in contact with this weekend say Pence is possible, perhaps, probable VP pick. But no one says 95% certain

Everyone says Trump is too unpredictable to think he won't pick someone no one is talking about.

https://twitter.com/tswarens/status/752290249007566852
https://twitter.com/tswarens/status/752290589606088704

 

[Yellowtail]

Could you please explain why newt would ensure Warren?

Newt's an agressive attack dog and debater. The only Democrat on Clinton's shortlist that's proven they can effectively counter that is Warren. He's also so odious - particularly to women voters - that Clinton could better afford to take a risk and double down.

This will be good:

Mike Pence hosted a morning talk-radio show for years in the 90s. How closely do you think Trump's campaign has vetted those hours of audio?

As for me, I'd bet the Clinton campaign has already gone through more hours of Pence's show than the Trump campaign has.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Taniel/status/752264749828759552

 

[metalslimer]

It's sort of amazing that Pence is considered a safe choice after the disastrous RF debacle. I also don't see why Pence would even want the chance. Some people say he doesn't want to risk losing in the governor's race but he has a Mich better shot in that than as the VP

I guess he's better than Newt and Sessions

 

[Iolo]

"STUNNING VP CHOICE!!!" - Mark Halperin

Speaking of Halperin.

Romney veep speculation swirls
By JONATHAN MARTIN 08/22/08 09:29 AM EDT
Mark Halperin set off tremors in the political world last night by reporting via two Republicans that John McCain had settled on Mitt Romney to be his running mate.

...
That seems to be the "body language" from the small group of aides who McCain is consulting on the decision, a GOP source says.

And that interpretation was reinforced when word spread among Romney loyalists last night that the vice presidential rollout tour included Michigan.

1 week before McCain chose Palin in 2008.

As usual, no one knows anything, news at 11.

 

[Plinko]

someone gif me the debrief dump on Pence

Pros for Trump

Pros for Clinton

kthx

Pros for Trump--He's a good politician. He's not insane. He is prety smart.

Pros for Clinton--He isn't going to sway any voters because he's a middle of the road white politician.

 

[Makai]

Pence endorsed Cruz. Dealbreaker

 

[User 463088]

Pence endorsed Cruz. Dealbreaker

Wasn't that the "I'm voting for him, but no one else has to" endorsement?

 

[Y2Kev]

Pence threw his hat into the hoop

 

[gcubed]

Are both real, and if so, would anyone be able to purchase both and ship them to me? Looking around I see the Hillary is real but not yet finding Trump or a way to purchase single issues (outside of eBay).

I'll see if I can find both here if you still want them.