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[Box of Kittens]

I'm skeptical of this 95% thing.

Pence would be a weak pick, but perhaps not particularly so given the other names mentioned. In theory his main benefit to Trump would be to appeal to evangelicals, as he is strongly socially conservative. He's actually relatively unpopular in Indiana because he's pushed the social conservatism so hard and in the process alienated the business community.

 

[User 463088]

I highly recommend the 4oD show "Power Monkeys" for some political lols. It's witty, even if a bit dated with the EU stuff. Still great.

 

[Makai]

Trump was already the number one pick for evangelicals in the primary.

 

[Measley]

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/Dcorps_WV_BG_063016.pdf

So, here's some battleground state polls. They were released on the 30th, I guess? In the field from June 11-20th. The margin of error in each state is like 5.66% so....grain of salt.

National across all Battleground States:
Queen 49
Trump 41

Arizona
Trump 48
Queen 43

Florida
Queen 52
Trump 39

Michigan
Queen 50
Trump 39

North Carolina
Queen 51
Trump 41

New Hampshire
Queen 51
Trump 47

Nevada
Trump 47
Queen 45

Ohio
Trump 48
Queen 47

Pennsylvania
Queen 49
Trump 39

Wisconsin
Queen 47
Trump 36

I seriously doubt he's going to win Ohio. The minority vote here has increased dramatically, and Obama won it twice.

Wow at those NC and Arizona numbers.

 

[User 463088]

I seriously doubt he's going to win Ohio. The minority vote here has increased dramatically, and Obama won it twice.

Wow at those Arizona numbers.

I'm in Ohio too. Personally, I think it's his second best potential pickup. I'm not saying it's great, but I can see him winning Ohio before he wins Florida or Virginia.

 

[gcubed]

I seriously doubt he's going to win Ohio. The minority vote here has increased dramatically, and Obama won it twice.

Wow at those NC and Arizona numbers.

I'm very torn on those numbers, the good ones are too good, the bad ones are too bad.

 

[littleworm]

As much as I would love it to be the case, there is no way Clinton is up 10 here in NC

 

[Y2Kev]

Also she's led in every poll in Ohio thus far. Florida I believe she could solidly by up +4 or so.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Trump's real problem, VP-wise, is that anyone who could shore up his most serious weaknesses is unlikely to be willing to appear on a ticket with him.

 

[Plinko]

LOL at Sam Stein saying he is surprised more people haven't mentioned Hannity's name as a VP. That had to be a joke tweet.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

I'm very torn on those numbers, the good ones are too good, the bad ones are too bad.

Don't state level polls always show this kind of wackiness early on? Then they come into alignment with the national ones in September / October. Clinton with the Obama '12 states + NC still seems like the safest bet.

 

[itschris]

https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/752296694306447360

Now that would be a unique excuse for missing the Republican convention!

Seriously though, ouch.

 

[gcubed]

Don't state level polls always show this kind of wackiness early on? Then they come into alignment with the national ones in September / October. Clinton with the Obama '12 states + NC still seems like the safest bet.

I think that's going to be the easiest bet, with some states being less competitive. There will be a few stragglers that will be late calls that she probably won't be able to steal, but they will be real close.

The problem with a big FL win is that it's going to be an early night

 

[neurosisxeno]

I don't see Clinton winning that heavily, but I could see her winning every state on that list except Arizona.

 

[Diablos]

I think that's going to be the easiest bet, with some states being less competitive. There will be a few stragglers that will be late calls that she probably won't be able to steal, but they will be real close.

The problem with a big FL win is that it's going to be an early night

Why is this a problem

Also why is Trump ahead in NV

 

[Aaron Strife]

I'll stick to my guns and say Clinton does win AZ.

I'd almost discard any poll that shows her losing NV entirely, just because polling Hispanics in that state is notoriously difficult.

Why is this a problem

Some people like election night to be a nailbiter.

Personally I prefer basking in the glory of an easy win.

 

[KingK]

Kingk and Macho. No way its Pence?


RIght.....?

I mean, under normal circumstances he's a terrible choice. But Trump doesn't really have many options so...I believe it. He's definitely on the shortlist.

someone gif me the debrief dump on Pence

Pros for Trump

Pros for Clinton

kthx

Pro for Clinton: There was the whole "religious freedom" bill backlash. Not to mention allowing an AIDS outbreak. He was looking weak for re-election in deep red Indiana.

Pro for Trump: he's actually held public office and has executive experience

 

[Y2Kev]

I don't believe Trump is ahead in NV for one second.

 

[neurosisxeno]

I think as far as the General goes, Trump is polling much higher than he's likely to get actual votes. Once he gets on stage with Clinton for a debate his numbers will drop. All of the Republican candidates tried to play on Trump's level, but Clinton will just show how absurd Trump's level actually is, and people will remember why they thought he was a punchline for the last 20 years.

I don't believe Trump is ahead in NV for one second.

That was the first one that flagged my bullshit meter. A state with a high latino population and against a candidate that has a ton of support from minority populations? No fucking way Trump wins that one.

 

[Wilsongt]

https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/752296694306447360

Now that would be a unique excuse for missing the Republican convention!

Seriously though, ouch.

Ouch. Poor guy.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Ouch. Poor guy.

Well, if he's paralyzed from the legs down, would he even feel the burns? Could that be why he had the injury, didn't notice scolding water?

 

[gcubed]

Why is this a problem

Also why is Trump ahead in NV

Because they aren't going to call Florida until after CA polls close because then it would be over. The bullshit to spread it out will be unbearable

 

[Basileus777]

I don't believe Trump is ahead in NV for one second.

Isn't Nevada polling notoriously unreliable?

Someone ask Jon Ralston.

 

[Y2Kev]

Isn't Nevada polling notoriously unreliable?

Someone ask Jon Ralston.

PLEASE DONT

 

[RustyNails]

But what about:

Is that Col. Qaddafi in an afro?

 

[Wilsongt]

Well, if he's paralyzed from the legs down, would he even feel the burns? Could that be why he had the injury, didn't notice scolding water?

It makes the problem a little worse. It's like with diabetics. If you have an injury and can't feel it, the chances of an infection occuring increases.

 

[sc0la]

Well, I was going to offer you Secretary of the Flaming Hole where the East Coast Used to Be. But, fine. Be that way.

Fair enough, what's your position on lobbyists? Because really if be down to just sit in the lobby, read PoliGAF and drink bad coffee.

Is that Col. Qaddafi in an afro?

Bruh...

 

[StopMakingSense]

Isn't Nevada polling notoriously unreliable?

Someone ask Jon Ralston.

If you stand at your bathroom mirror at midnight and chant "Nevada Politics" three times into the mirror you summon Jon Ralston.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I'm told the following ppl got full Trump vetting docs: Christie, Newt, Sessions, Pence, Flynn, Corker (d/n complete), Ernst (d/n complete)

What a sad list.

https://twitter.com/elianayjohnson/status/752318757071040512

 

[Mighty Chin]

So this is my Step-Grandmothers last comment. I've told she's an embarrassment and to go ahead and unfriend me.

Hey you need to read some history as to who freed the slaves. That lady is so right. you young kids don't know where the good stuff is happening. Free enterprize is it . Y our granddad would explain that to you. He would be pretty unhappy with what is running Canada right now.. You are too young to understand my dear young man. The African Americans have been held down by the DEMOCRATS since they took over . They keep giving away all the peoples money & completely criminal in every way. Obama has brought racism back!!! Need I even talk about all this with you who need to get into real history.Trump is the one right now in the top . We need to support him if this country is to be the Good ol US of A. . stop your Clinton lies you hear on CNN.!! Hillary lied about every thing !! You follow Hollywood phonys!!!

 

[Aaron Strife]

What a sad list.

https://twitter.com/elianayjohnson/status/752318757071040512

I'm just imagining the conversation going like

Trump: I'm thinking Flynn
RNC: What? What the fuck? No, go with Pence.
Trump: Mmmm, i dunno, I'm feeling Flynn
RNC: JESUS CHRIST WHY

 

[Basileus777]

Nothing ever good comes of debating politics with grandparents.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

How do millenials not instantly recognize Negrodamus? Chappelle died quit for our sins.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

It makes the problem a little worse. It's like with diabetics. If you have an injury and can't feel it, the chances of an infection occuring increases.

Oh I understand that, but everyone is saying stuff like "ouch", when in reality he probably doesn't feel anything.

Also I am very blessed to have liberal grandparents!

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

I want Trump to pick someone, then the convention tries to appoint another.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Baton Rouge:

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=690371467783085&id=124978350989069&fs=5

Your freedom to assemble is meaningless.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

I think I said Pence two weeks back. Looks like I was right.

Probably the best pick Trump had from the lot. RNC will be very very happy too.

 

[pigeon]

Nevada just has a huge Hispanic population so small issues with Hispanic polling are heavily multiplied.

I don't have a major problem with those numbers as individual polls. There are also some nice callouts:

* Clinton ties married women but is +37 among unmarried women. (2012 Obama was +33 among unmarried women, -8 among married women.)
* Clinton's also +25 among college-educated women, -11 among non-college women, with 11 of those saying don't know. (2012 Obama was +13 among college-educated women, -20 among non-college women.)
* Clinton wins all generations but her two worsts are Gen X and Silent. Boomers are +7 Clinton (5% Johnson), Gen X is +2 Clinton (and 13% Johnson).
* In terms of motivation this election, the largest single demographic is college-educated women, 78% of who say that this election is a 10 in terms of importance. Minorities are 69% 10. Millenials are 59%.
* 48% of voters say they could never support Trump. (40% say the same for Hillary.)
* Of the voters who aren't voting Hillary but say they could, 51% are self-identified independents. If they voted in the Dem primary, 65% voted Sanders, 27% Hillary (wtf guys). If they voted in the GOP primary, 55% voted Kasich, 24% Rubio.
* Johnson voters split evenly when asked who they would vote for in a two-person race -- 31% Clinton, 30% Trump.

 

[Basileus777]

* 48% of voters say they could never support Trump.

That's a pretty incredible number for a Presidential candidate.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Nothing ever good comes of debating politics with grandparents.

One of the many reasons I don't really talk politics on Facebook is not wanting to get into arguments with any family. I certainly would never want politics to put any strain on my relationships with any of my family.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Man, the war in Libya was highly praised for like a year.

http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1162/ISEC_a_00088

Robert Pape's 2012 paper reminded me of this since Pape mentions great praise for the intervention.

 

[Thequietone]

Nothing ever good comes of debating politics with grandparents.

Actually my grandma is extremely liberal except for one or two issues. She was telling me last Christmas how important it was to have a Democrat win the presidency and continue Obama's good work, because the Republicans will just throw away all of our progress.

One of the many reasons I don't really talk politics on Facebook is not wanting to get into arguments with any family. I certainly would never want politics to put any strain on my relationships with any of my family.

I can't post anything "political" at all on Facebook. I have two Republicans on my side of the family and most of my wife's family is Republican. I cannot stand their racism at all, and two of them are extremely pro-gun.

 

[Suikoguy]

Man, the war in Libya was highly praised for like a year.

http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1162/ISEC_a_00088

Robert Pape's 2012 paper reminded me of this since Pape mentions great praise for the intervention.

You sure that's not from the Berenstein Bears universe?

 

[Avon Barksdale]

The few BernieBros on my Facebook timeline are still posting anti-Hillary shit.

Will they stop after he (finally) endorses her?

 

[BanGy.nz]

The few BernieBros on my Facebook timeline are still posting anti-Hillary shit.

Will they stop after he (finally) endorses her?

Most will, some won't. Don't worry about it.

 

[Thequietone]

The few BernieBros on my Facebook timeline are still posting anti-Hillary shit.

Will they stop after he (finally) endorses her?

Probably not. It seems like the remaining holdouts of Bernie supporters have even turned on the man himself ever since it was reported that he will be making an endorsement next week. I personally think it was never about Bernie or his ideas for some of these people, it was a case of anyone but Hillary and/or misogynistic hatred for her.

 

[Bowdz]

The few BernieBros on my Facebook timeline are still posting anti-Hillary shit.

Will they stop after he (finally) endorses her?

No.

The hardcore people who are posting all of that stuff online will never support her.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

You guys just aren't amicable enough. I was surrounded by conservatives yelling very loudly in a bar that Clinton was a bitch who deserved to be behind bars and I was still able to express my opinion without causing a fight. That didn't stop me, a left wing minority millennial, from having a few beers with these folks and getting to know them! There's common ground between everyone, so just learn how to find it and be a nice person.

Sometimes I wonder if some of you know how to make friends at all!

 

[Wilsongt]

There is a BLM protest here where I live and I just read some Facebook comments about it.

I am way too fucking drunk for those nonsense racist comments.

https://m.facebook.com/WIS10/?feed_ufi=comments

 

[pigeon]

You guys just aren't amicable enough. I was surrounded by conservatives yelling very loudly in a bar that Clinton was a bitch who deserved to be behind bars and I was still able to express my opinion without causing a fight. That didn't stop me, a left wing minority millennial, from having a few beers with these folks and getting to know them! There's common ground between everyone, so just learn how to find it and be a nice person.

Sometimes I wonder if some of you know how to make friends at all!

There's a difference between being able to be friends with somebody and wanting to be.