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[Spoiled Milk]

Okay, I completely misunderstood what was going on in Turkey and Sybilus was correct. Sorry!

http://www.vox.com/2016/7/15/12204368/turkey-coup-expert

The coup attempt is very puzzling. For one thing, it seems to have been very poorly planned. For example, most TV channels were left operating and there does not seem to have been an attempt to take Erdogan in. And as I write this, it seemed to be collapsing. Second, it is not clear who would benefit from a coup. The military is no longer the secularist stronghold with a strong esprit de corps and sense of mission it once was. (Hence the widespread theory in Turkey that this was a coup staged by Erdogan himself, designed to pave the way for an Erdogan dictatorship. But this doesn’t quite ring true either, in light of Erdogan’s recent attempts to mend fences with Russia and Israel to strengthen the economy. He must know that even a failed coup would wreak havoc with the economy.)

Erdogan and his has allies blame the coup on a Gulenist cabal within the military. Fetullah Gulen is a US-based cleric who was once allied with Erdogan. Since their split, Erdogan has gone after Gulenists with a venom – declaring them a parallel state within the state (not too far from the truth).

We know that Gulen has a fair number of sympathizers in the military. In fact, the military may be Gulen’s last bastion of strength in Turkey, since others in the police, judiciary, media and other branches of the government have already been purged. No doubt, the government will use the coup as an opportunity to launch an even bigger attack on the Gulen movement.

The Gulen movement is certainly capable of a wide range of dirty tricks – but a coup does not seem to be their kind of thing. And besides, what did they stand to gain from such an amateurish attempt?

Q: What are the causes? Is this pressure from refugees? Missteps from Erdogan? Economic unrest?

None of the above really. Whatever the reason and the actors involved, it was some kind of internal power struggle relating to none of those things.

Q: Looking back, was this predictable?

Erdogan has taken the country deeper into authoritarianism and aggravated ethnic and religious cleavages. I would have speculated even about a civil war – given tensions with the Kurds. But a military coup? That was totally unpredictable. At least I thought so.

Q: What do you see as the range of plausible outcomes from this point?

I hope that the coup will fail. Assuming that is what happens, it will clear the way for total domination of Turkish politics by Erdogan. It will make it easier for him to make the constitutional changes he wants to make himself essentially the one and only politician deciding everything in the country.

 

[Emarv]

The thing I always find best in situations like this is to not be quick to jump to opinions on a country I haven't thought about in years or even knew their leader's name until a few hours ago. I look for the smart reporters and just read and read until I feel I know what's kind of going on.

Basically the opposite of what Trump is probably doing right now.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Oh so we're past the making blanket statements that are factually false part of the discussion.

Again, we need to wait and see the result, but IF the result is a more secular country and less Islamic government whilst still re-establishing the Democratic process in the end then yes I support it. If we have some other result, then I would not support it.

You see it's fun to not think in black and white!

So the ends justify the means? as long as Amir0x's politics win?

 

[Amir0x]

So the ends justify the means? as long as Amir0x's politics win?

I'm sorry but I'm older then 10 so I understand that sometimes violence occurs during political events, and the end result still is something better than what came before.

If you want a bloodless world good luck with that, but you know it's never gonna happen sooo we work with what we have. Sometimes the only way to remove a corrupt regime is by a coup where some people die of course. There is widespread accusations of fraud in Turkey elections, so it's not even clear there is the Democratic process as it stands already.

 

[Plumbob]

So the ends justify the means? as long as Amir0x's politics win?

Given that Amir0x did not call for the coup and has no control over Turkey, all he can hope for is a good outcome...

 

[thcsquad]

So the ends justify the means? as long as Amir0x's politics win?

Human rights are not politics. You are seriously underestimating how terrifying Erdogan is.

 

[pigeon]

So let's say Trump wins the election, announces that he's going to put American Muslims in internment camps until they can be "vetted."

Obama says Trump is a danger to democracy and announces he's going to refuse to step down and hand over power.

Who would you support?

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

Military coups usually end in further despotism, but that's not a guarantee. It's perfectly possible that this coup could end up making Turkey a safer, more secular, more securely democratic country, and there is no reality in which that is not improvement over increasing tyranny, which is what basically every foreign analyst of repute believes was happening under Erdogan. Much of history is predictable, but much is not.

 

[Plumbob]

So let's say Trump wins the election, announces that he's going to put American Muslims in internment camps until they can be "vetted."

Obama says Trump is a danger to democracy and announces he's going to refuse to step down and hand over power.

Who would you support?

Well neither, but Obama's actions would legitimize Trumps. Obama would have to step down

 

[Emarv]

So let's say Trump wins the election, announces that he's going to put American Muslims in internment camps until they can be "vetted."

Obama says Trump is a danger to democracy and announces he's going to refuse to step down and hand over power.

Who would you support?

I'd watch this movie.

 

[shem935]

Well neither, but Obama's actions would legitimize Trumps. Obama would have to step down

How would Obama refusing to give up power to Trump legitimize him putting people in concentration camps?

 

[itschris]

This story just keeps going:

Politico: GOP convention organizers apologize to Sheldon Adelson

The last-minute plea for $6 million from Las Vegas billionaire Sheldon Adelson to rescue the Republican convention has erupted in controversy, as four of the five signatories to the letter from party organizers never saw it before it was sent and major donors flagged serious errors that forced the convention hosts to apologize to one of the GOP’s most influential financiers.

The episode has opened a window into a host committee that is scrambling and still millions shy of its fundraising target, only days before tens of thousands of Republicans arrive in Cleveland, as it acknowledges for the first time that presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump has put a damper on donations.

The letter, obtained by POLITICO on Thursday, outlined two dozen major corporations — Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Duke Energy and Apple, among them — that it claimed had backed out a combined more than $8.1 million in pledged donations in recent months.

But on Friday, Emily Lauer, a spokeswoman for the Cleveland 2016 Host Committee, acknowledged to POLITICO that the list of lost donors in the letter to Adelson was inaccurate — and that the committee has now reached out to Adelson’s aides to apologize.

“Some of what were referred to as pledges were actually expectations based on pledges made to previous conventions, while a handful had been withdrawn,” David Gilbert, the CEO of the host committee, said in a prepared statement.

Lauer also said that Gilbert was the only one of the five named signers of the letter that had actually seen the document, which blamed “negative publicity” around Trump for its financial shortfall, before it was sent.

 

[Sibylus]

The signals coming out of Turkey are confused and contradictory... impossible to even say which factions are mounting a coup or why, who is gaining or losing, or if there is even a functioning government right now.

Even if one believes in good coups, hold your breath and wait to throw in with this one.

 

[Plumbob]

How would Obama refusing to give up power to Trump legitimize him putting people in concentration camps?

Not logically but from an optics standpoint "fighting a tyrant" gives you leeway you didn't have before

 

[East Lake]

So let's say Trump wins the election, announces that he's going to put American Muslims in internment camps until they can be "vetted."

Obama says Trump is a danger to democracy and announces he's going to refuse to step down and hand over power.

Who would you support?

I wouldn't "support" Trump but I'd support Obama stepping down even with Trump's FDR-like policies.

 

[Suikoguy]

The signals coming out of Turkey are confused and contradictory... impossible to even say which factions are mounting a coup or why, who is gaining or losing, or if there is even a functioning government right now.

Even if one believes in good coups, hold your breath and wait to throw in with this one.

It's really quite surreal, like the first modern social media military coup.
So you get stuff like that live stream from the CNN station over there.

 

[metalslimer]

So let's say Trump wins the election, announces that he's going to put American Muslims in internment camps until they can be "vetted."

Obama says Trump is a danger to democracy and announces he's going to refuse to step down and hand over power.

Who would you support?

To be honest I would hope either congress or the Supreme Court would step in. If trump announced he was dissolving one of the institutions of government and no one said anything I would support Obama. We have so many checks and balances now that it makes the scenario unlikely.

I'm of the opinion that I would prefer a military coup over civilians having to lose there lives to stand up to a brutal dictator, but at the same time there is a murky line on at what point does that become necessary. Should we stop people in the process of assuming full control?

I think a good comparison would be trump winning dissolving the Supreme Court and republicans supporting him. If he tried to round up Muslims and the military turned on him would it be worth it to take him out

 

[itschris]

New York Times: How Donald Trump Finally Settled on Mike Pence

Donald J. Trump raged at the leaked reports of his plan to choose Mike Pence, the governor of Indiana, as his running mate. In public, he denied having made a “final, final decision,” and postponed a planned event to unveil his choice. In a Thursday evening phone call with top aides, he asked for reassurance that Mr. Pence was really right for the job.

In conversations late into the evening, Mr. Trump repeatedly hesitated over selecting Mr. Pence, according to people briefed on the tense deliberations, who insisted on anonymity to describe the confidential talks. Even as his emissaries reassured Mr. Pence, Mr. Trump fielded a last-ditch appeal from Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, another finalist, who once again pressed his own case.

Advisers and family members stressed over and over to Mr. Trump that he was selecting a running mate to unite the Republican Party, not a new best friend.

But before flying back from a fund-raiser in California, Mr. Trump had settled on a plan for the morning. After having insisted that he would not make a Friday announcement out of respect for the attack in Nice, France, he would reverse course, appropriately enough, on Twitter, and name Mr. Pence as his choice.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

So let's say Trump wins the election, announces that he's going to put American Muslims in internment camps until they can be "vetted."

Obama says Trump is a danger to democracy and announces he's going to refuse to step down and hand over power.

Who would you support?

Your hypothetical is bad. Putting Muslims in internment camps would be unconstitutional and so Obama wouldn't need to say that. If Trump said something much worse then I would support King Obama. Obviously.

Btw, our military swears to uphold the constitution. It is always constitutional for the military to overthrow the president if the president becomes a dictator.

 

[watershed]

New York Times: How Donald Trump Finally Settled on Mike Pence

Clown show. Trump has failed every audition for the presidency by any reasonable assessment. And yet here we are.

 

[Emarv]

I think Pigeon's hypothetical is being talked about in the military, though. Obviously not that exact scenario, but when Trump was making his torture and war comments earlier this year and generals were like "Yeah, we wouldn't follow those orders", I have to imagine that is raising questions on what we do when a modern leader imposes sanctions they can't follow, especially in times of relative peace for no real reason.

Who watches the Trumpmen?

 

[Teggy]

Reuters Ipsos dropped another of their standard huge Clinton lead polls 45-33.

Also, in unsurprising news

Shane Goldmacher‏ @ShaneGoldmacher
Not picked as VP, Newt leaks that he was asked for a decade of taxes. Trump has refused to release any taxes.

 

[brianmcdoogle]

Rebound on Princeton Election:

 

[Wilsongt]

Reuters Ipsos dropped another of their standard huge Clinton lead polls 45-33.

Unskew it. Bernie and Jill are destroying Trump compared to Hillary.

 

[Iolo]

Soon Reuters will have her leading by 25 and Qpac will have her losing by 25. The tiebreaker will be a Selzer poll of Iowa with demographic composition altered to match the nation.

 

[Teggy]

Rebound on Princeton Election:

Weird, is the drop the result of the recent polls or something else? Because then why did it jump back up?

 

[pigeon]

Well neither, but Obama's actions would legitimize Trumps. Obama would have to step down

So would you accept the interning of Muslims, then?

To be honest I would hope either congress or the Supreme Court would step in.

At what point? Just to be clear, Trump hasn't done anything yet. Would you expect Obama to step down, hand over power, and wait for Trump to be blocked by the other institutions of government?

Your hypothetical is bad. Putting Muslims in internment camps would be unconstitutional and so Obama wouldn't need to say that.

I am not sure what you mean by this. How does the fact that Trump said he'll do something unconstitutional affect this hypothetical? Trump is not president yet in this hypothetical.

Btw, our military swears to uphold the constitution. It is always constitutional for the military to overthrow the president if the president becomes a dictator.

So, I mean, would you prefer Obama stepping down, letting Trump take over, and then having the military overthrow Trump when he tries to do stuff? Assuming that they would.

 

[Emarv]

Reuters Ipsos dropped another of their standard huge Clinton lead polls 45-33.

1. Hillary ahead in 15 polls by +5
2. Poll comes out showing the race tightening
3. Media and pundits freak out about it for 2 days
4. 15 more polls showing +5 come out
5. We all wait for a new poll to freak out about

Repeat ad nauseam.

.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Reuters Ipsos dropped another of their standard huge Clinton lead polls 45-33.

Also, in unsurprising news

Shane Goldmacher‏ @ShaneGoldmacher
Not picked as VP, Newt leaks that he was asked for a decade of taxes. Trump has refused to release any taxes.

Lol Newt covertly shitting on Trump for not being picked.

 

[Makai]

Btw, our military swears to uphold the constitution. It is always constitutional for the military to overthrow the president if the president becomes a dictator.

I dont think the court has tested the constitutionality of military coup. Unless Fort Sumter v. United States turned out differently than I remember

 

[pigeon]

I dont think the court has tested the constitutionality of military coup.

It kind of did under Lincoln and declared that military coups don't count and those people are just criminals committing assault and murder.

 

[Suikoguy]

.

That looks a lot like the Sonic Cycle, maybe I should fire up that outline editor, lol.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

I am not sure what you mean by this. How does the fact that Trump said he'll do something unconstitutional affect this hypothetical? Trump is not president yet in this hypothetical.



So, I mean, would you prefer Obama stepping down, letting Trump take over, and then having the military overthrow Trump when he tries to do stuff? Assuming that they would.

Misunderstood. Yes, I would expect Obama to step down and let Trump be blocked by other institutions first. If he acts anyway as a rogue executive then it's the mandate of the military to intervene.

We already know that people in positions of leadership already don't like Trump. Director of the CIA already said he wouldn't reintroduce torture under Trump. But then I guess Trump forces him to resign, so...

 

[ampere]

At what point? Just to be clear, Trump hasn't done anything yet. Would you expect Obama to step down, hand over power, and wait for Trump to be blocked by the other institutions of government?

I'd go with the bolded

Obama not stepping down in January for the inauguration would be... ceremonial defiance? He constitutionally couldn't stay president

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Not the world's first dictator, not the last. Going home in my uber and going to enjoy safe, conflict free dinner.

 

[Basileus777]

At what point? Just to be clear, Trump hasn't done anything yet. Would you expect Obama to step down, hand over power, and wait for Trump to be blocked by the other institutions of government?

I'm not sure why you're drawing the line at that sort of timing if you're comparing it to Turkey where Erdogan has been in power and enacting his policies for years. It'd be more like if Trump spent years as President and was fixing elections and centralizing power to stay in power, perhaps indefinitely. Would you support a coup to prevent Trump from becoming an American Putin?

 

[Effect]

Did Trump or anyone near him put their foot in their mouth over what is happening in Turkey yet?

 

[Iolo]

Obama not stepping down due to a Trump hypothetical would end the American experiment. So yes, you would wait and get rid of Trump through constitutional means (impeachment), mass protests, refusal of the military to carry out unconstitutional orders, electors choosing someone else... It would be no different than if a president went crazy after assuming power; so I'm not sure why you would suggest an unconstitutional action by Obama as the sole remedy, as it would imply there is no remedy except during electoral transfers of power.

 

[brianmcdoogle]

What if all the Supreme Court justices refused to swear in the next President, whoever, and that person then sued on constitutional grounds, and the Supreme Court then rejected the arguments!

 

[shinra-bansho]

Isn't the whole point of the dummy dum dum dumb 2nd amendment that you can rise up and overthrow Trump with your civilian guns.

 

[Basileus777]

What if all the Supreme Court justices refused to swear in the next President, whoever, and that person then sued on constitutional grounds, and the Supreme Court then rejected the arguments!

They could just be like Erdogan and threaten to end the existence of the top courts when they disagree with him.

 

[kess]

Having spent a lot of time in a secular Turkey, this is a sad day for me. Generations are going to grow up in a increasingly fundamentalist Turkey, and I'm afraid there isn't much chance of turning back now. There were massive election irregularities during the last election and constant harassment of journalists on specious charges, so I see little reason to white knight for the AKP.

 

[pigeon]

I'm not sure why you're drawing the line at that sort of timing if you're comparing it to Turkey where Erdogan has been in power and enacting his policies for years. It'd be more like if Trump spent years as President and was fixing elections and centralizing power to stay in power, perhaps indefinitely. Would you support a coup to prevent Trump from becoming an American Putin?

It's not supposed to be a direct comparison yet, I'm interested in seeing where people draw the line.

But sure, let's go forward with that. Trump takes power and tells the military to round up all Muslims. The military refuses and deposes him. Everybody fine with that? What should happen next?

Second question, of course, is what if the military doesn't refuse?

 

[Iolo]

Also I don't understand why people (ok, just Kris) are suggesting the military has a mandate to replace the president. We have a legal process when the President commits an unlawful act, it's called impeachment and it's Congress' job to indict, try and convict! The military need never get involved unless it is to refuse illegal orders.

Unless you think we needed a military coup to get rid of Nixon.

 

[metalslimer]

Also I don't understand why people (ok, just Kris) are suggesting the military has a mandate to replace the president. We have a legal process when the President commits an unlawful act, it's called impeachment and it's Congress' job to indict, try and convict! The military need never get involved unless it is to refuse illegal orders.

Unless you think we needed a military coup to get rid of Nixon.

Well I mean if he had refused to comply....than maybe? Is the military forcefully removing him after he refuses to abide the impeachment a coup?

 

[Spoiled Milk]

It's not supposed to be a direct comparison yet, I'm interested in seeing where people draw the line.

But sure, let's go forward with that. Trump takes power and tells the military to round up all Muslims. The military refuses and deposes him. Everybody fine with that? What should happen next?

Second question, of course, is what if the military doesn't refuse?

Just remembered that this morning Gingrich said we should round up Muslims who want Sharia and deport them. This isn't that far from a possibility.

 

[Basileus777]

Also I don't understand why people (ok, just Kris) are suggesting the military has a mandate to replace the president. We have a legal process when the President commits an unlawful act, it's called impeachment and it's Congress' job to indict, try and convict! The military need never get involved unless it is to refuse illegal orders.

Unless you think we needed a military coup to get rid of Nixon.

Well the premise suggests that those legal processes break down. The USA isn't in that situation thankfully, but there are countries (like perhaps Turkey) where a coup may be the only way to prevent a leader from becoming an autocrat.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

With Pigeon's hypothetical the thing is if Trump want to intern brown people there is legal precedent to stop it and I'm sure before the ink was dried on the order it would be in the courts. Unless he had a supermajority able to change the constitution it would not happen. Obama refusing to step down would not be necessary.

In Turkey there is no more checks, only thing left is their constitution. The courts are neutered, opposition has been arrested/killed/censored. State also owns the media. Turkey is a democracy in name only.

 

[RustyNails]

Except again not always true. It's not even true that every military coup has violence.

People need to stop trying to confirm their deeply held biases and read more history.

Which military coup made a country better than its democratic past? Kristoffer's favorite "successful" coup in Egypt by Cici has killed hundreds of peotestors, jailed many more including AlJazeera reporters, executed MB members and has still Morsi in jail. History in the middle east always repeats itself.

 

[Iolo]

Well the premise suggests that those legal processes break down. The USA isn't in that situation thankfully, but there are countries (like perhaps Turkey) where a coup may be the only way to prevent a leader from becoming an autocrat.

The question was literally about whether Obama should refuse to step down to prevent a maniac from assuming power. It was not stipulated that Congress was powerless.