• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

Status
Not open for further replies.

Maledict

Member
So Trump is going to beg the NRA to give permission to Republicans to vote on a law that restricts selling to people on the watch list?

Bit of diabolising here, but this is potentially a very good thing for him.

Say he gets the NRa to some form of minor climb down on the most outrageous aspects of their stance on guns - nothing that's actually hugely useful, but a concession. He can then go on endlessly about he achieved more on gun control than Obama and Hillary and all the democrats managed in 20 years, and did it by working outside the normal political machine - the art of the deal amped a hundred.

His own supporters would support a ban on terrorists having guns because you spin it as another form of anti-brown, anti-Muslim legislation, and it reiterates his claim of being a good negotiator who can do stuff no normal politician can.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
What a bunch of jokers.

Once I beat Xenoblade X I need to go back to this game. I never got more than 10 hours into it, yet I've put 40 into XCX and I don't even have my skell yet.
 

Anoregon

The flight plan I just filed with the agency list me, my men, Dr. Pavel here. But only one of you!
Why do you suck white guys?

I actually just mentioned this to a buddy, every time I see demographic break downs of new polls I just get kind of embarrassed at the cohort I belong to.

I'm one of the good ones, I promise. I literally have a black friend.
 
Bit of diabolising here, but this is potentially a very good thing for him.

Say he gets the NRa to some form of minor climb down on the most outrageous aspects of their stance on guns - nothing that's actually hugely useful, but a concession. He can then go on endlessly about he achieved more on gun control than Obama and Hillary and all the democrats managed in 20 years, and did it by working outside the normal political machine - the art of the deal amped a hundred.

His own supporters would support a ban on terrorists having guns because you spin it as another form of anti-brown, anti-Muslim legislation, and it reiterates his claim of being a good negotiator who can do stuff no normal politician can.

How is he going to run on getting exactly what Clinton and Obama and the Democrats are asking for and zero Republicans?
 
Eh8NKPu.jpg


Lol breitbart

There is a political precedent for the "King David defense".

Clinton era e-mail cited Jewish law as defense in Lewinsky scandal

At the height of the Monica Lewinsky scandal, a senior aide to Hillary Rodham Clinton forwarded a far-fetched potential defense to the White House: a Talmudic interpretation that Bill Clinton wasn’t guilty of adultery.

“According to classical Jewish law, President Clinton did not commit adultery; adultery is defined as a married man having intercourse with a married woman, and Monica Lewinsky is single,” said the Jan. 27, 1999, ­e-mail that ended up with White House adviser and political fixer Sidney Blumenthal.
“From the perspective of Jewish history, we have to ask how Jews can condemn President Clinton’s behavior as immoral, when we exalt King David?” Susannah Heschel wrote.

“King David had Batsheva’s husband, Uriah, murdered. While David was condemned and punished, he was never thrown off the throne of Israel. On the contrary, he is exalted in our Jewish memory as the unifier of Israel.”
 

Valhelm

contribute something
The contrast.

Clinton / Trumpster
White men:
-52 / -6

Non-white women:
+46 / -86

Her favourability among men decreased between polls.

Why do you suck white guys?

Am I reading this wrong, or do 48% of white men prefer Clinton?

That's substantially higher than the percentage who voted for Obama. If she keeps this up, she's got the presidency in the bag.
 
Bit of diabolising here, but this is potentially a very good thing for him.

Say he gets the NRa to some form of minor climb down on the most outrageous aspects of their stance on guns - nothing that's actually hugely useful, but a concession. He can then go on endlessly about he achieved more on gun control than Obama and Hillary and all the democrats managed in 20 years, and did it by working outside the normal political machine - the art of the deal amped a hundred.

His own supporters would support a ban on terrorists having guns because you spin it as another form of anti-brown, anti-Muslim legislation, and it reiterates his claim of being a good negotiator who can do stuff no normal politician can.

That is a good point, and it does sound like a smart play, but who would bet that Trump wouldn't botch it given his recent track record?
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
There are multiple ways to make it easier to register people to vote that don't involve enabling independents to hijack a party's primary. Automatic registration, for one.

Heck, I'm in the "automatic registration, vote by mail and polling station, early vote, free government issued voter ID cards" level of voting.

I want people who actually support the goals of the Democratic party and who have a long term interest in the goals of the Democratic party to choose who actually leads the Democratic party - if you can't remember to change your registration a month before the election, then I really don't feel that bad.

Yeah, the six month deadlines in New York are stupid, but so is the idea of letting a bunch of Republicans or wacky college anarchists voting in unelectable candidates on the local and state level.

A) There's never been evidence that trying to sabotage the opponent's primary has ever been more than 2-3% of the total vote (even in small primaries) and B) those wacky college anarchists are why you have 8 years of Obama.

I don't really see how closed vs open primaries makes a difference with same-day registration, given that you can switch the day of anyway?

Same day registration I have no problem with, but under Sanders' demands someone can show up to their polling place, refuse to register at that time as a Democrat, and still get to vote in the Democratic Party contest. Screw that, if you can't be bothered to register as a member of the party THE SAME DAMN DAY you're showing up to vote in that party's primary then you have no business voting in their primary contest.

But apparently we need to clear up some misconceptions about "independent voters"

There basically aren't any. http://cookpolitical.com/story/6608

In fact, true independents are equally as down on Sanders than Clinton.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sanders-isnt-doing-well-with-true-independents/

The problem with this analysis, however, is that most independents are really closeted partisans, and there is no sign that true independents disproportionately like Sanders.

Most voters who identify as independent consistently vote for one party or the other in presidential elections. In a Gallup poll taken in early April, for instance, 41 percent of independents (who made up 44 percent of all respondents) leaned Democratic, and 36 percent leaned Republican. Just 23 percent of independents had no partisan preference. In the last three presidential elections, the Democratic candidate received the support of no less than 88 percent of self-identified independents who leaned Democratic, according to the American National Elections Studies survey. These are, in effect, Democratic voters with a different name.

So let me clarify who you exactly are disenfranchising. You're disenfranchising (primarily young) democratic voters. Due to the mostly non-competitive nature of the Democratic primary + the candidates involved and their extreme demographic shifts this year - you're getting a ton of young folks to the voting polls for probably the first time in their lives by having open primaries and same-day registration, and since those voters tend to skew dramatically Democratic...congratulations, your policies have made it harder for the Democrats to continue to hold the advantage in presidential elections.

Let me make this clear; there has never been, despite everyone's bedwetting about the situation, any kind of "actual independents hijacking a primary" situation, ever. Everyone likes to think about it in theory, and everyone likes to use it as an excuse for when their candidate under performs (stares at this thread) relative to "expectations" (which are usually derived from someone's own personal bias and / or hatred / ignorance about how things work).

In fact: http://www.thenation.com/article/what-everyone-gets-wrong-about-independent-voters/

 Both candidates’ supporters—and Donald Trump—have it mostly wrong. While around four-in-10 voters say they’re independents, very few are actually swing voters. In fact, according to an analysis of voting patterns conducted by Michigan State University political scientist Corwin Smidt, those who identify as independents today are more stable in their support for one or the other party than were “strong partisans” back in the 1970s. According to Dan Hopkins, a professor of government at the University of Pennsylvania, “independents who lean toward the Democrats are less likely to back GOP candidates than are weak Democrats.”

While most independents vote like partisans, on average they’re slightly more likely to just stay home in November. “Typically independents are less active and less engaged in politics than are strong partisans,” says Smidt.

Oh, also, just to further go into the "independents" train...and how it leads to a net loss for Democrats to keep "independents" out of the political process.

 In that sense, we’re talking about precisely the kind of people who should be encouraged to participate in the primary process. Most Dem-leaning independents have as much invested in the Democratic Party as a typical registered Democrat—they vote consistently for its candidates. At a minimum, this should call into question highly restrictive primary rules like New York’s, which had a deadline to switch parties that passed last October, months before most people were paying attention to the primary contest.

At the same time, Sanders’s superior performance among independent voters is largely a matter of demographics, not the fact that they identify as independents. Younger people, whites and men—groups that skew toward Sanders—are significantly more likely to identify as independents than older voters, people of color and women.

Among partisan Democrats, Clinton’s supporters tend to be more moderate than those backing Sanders, but there’s virtually no ideological gap between the two candidates’ independent supporters. That’s consistent with Pew’s broader finding that the ideological “positions of those who identify as Democrats and those [independents] who lean toward the Democratic Party are nearly identical.” And while 8 percent of Dem-leaning independents have a “very negative” view of the party, according to Pew, that’s also true of 4 percent of those who identify as Democrats.

Millennials have played an outsized role in Sanders’s success. According to Pew, they’re the group that’s most likely to identify as independents—almost half of them do—but when pushed, they’re also the age cohort that leans most toward the Democratic party. That’s especially true among younger people of color. White millennials are almost evenly split in their partisan leanings—they favor Republicans by a 45-43 margin—while non-whites in this age group identify as or lean toward Democrats by a massive 61-23 margin.

There's definitely some degree of people deciding what is "right" based on what they perceive as benefiting their preferred candidate. This primary season I've seen some Clinton supporters defend New York's six-month deadline for changing party registration, while some Sanders supporters have attacked early voting.

Yeah. The fact that young voters skewed heavily for Sanders and that the pro-Hillary folks are all on board with suppressing voter turnout for that group is pretty appalling. This is like folks wanting the assault weapons ban (aka the scary looking guns ban) re-instated after Orlando and people on the no-fly list not able to buy guns - it is obvious none of them have actually read the assault weapons ban and/or have not realized that the shooter wasn't on the no-fly list.

Regarding the assault weapons ban

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/guns-like-the-ar-15-were-never-fully-banned/

The AR-15 used to be illegal. President Bill Clinton’s assault weapons ban, which was in effect from 1994 to 2004, banned the AR-15 and other guns that were too similar to military-style weapons. However, this law did not prohibit Americans from owning semi-automatic weapons; it capped how many military features an individual gun could have. During the ban, a semi-automatic rifle like the AR-15 could legally have any one of the following features, as long as it didn’t have two or more of them: a folding stock (making the gun slightly easier to conceal), a pistol grip (making the weapon easier to hold and use), a bayonet mount, a flash suppressor (making it harder to see where shots are coming from), or a grenade launcher.

A 2004 report commissioned by the Department of Justice on the effects of the assault weapons ban concluded that the law was largely ineffective at limiting access to weapons with the power of the AR-15. According to the report, the ban focused on “features that have little to do with the weapons’ operation, and removing those features is sufficient to make the weapons legal.” The report noted that several semi-automatic rifles were functionally equivalent to the AR-15 and untouched by the ban. It’s hard to know whether Mateen’s AR-15-style weapon would have been covered by the old ban, though some versions of the Sig Sauer MCX rifle he used are sold with more than one of the components that were limited by the law. Depending on how many military-style features the rifle had when he bought it, it might have been legal under the assault weapons ban. And he would have been able to modify the gun himself, even under the old law.

Also - the shooter didn't have an AR-15; he had a Sig Sauer
 

thebloo

Member
Am I reading this wrong, or do 48% of white men prefer Clinton?

That's substantially higher than the percentage who voted for Obama. If she keeps this up, she's got the presidency in the bag.

You're reading it wrong, it's a 52 point gap in favorability. Like 77% hate her and 25% like her --> -52%.
 

Iolo

Member
After Mark Penn, Sid Blumenthal is the thing that gives me the most pause about Hillary. Fortunately she jettisoned the first.


This is the most insightful quote imo:

“I think sometimes being silent and not participating in the social media fights can be a form of sincere self-care,” said Tanya Tarr, 38, a health coach and former political organizer. “I don’t want to waste my energy fighting or getting upset — I would rather quietly organize or go about my business getting my candidate elected.”
 
A) There's never been evidence that trying to sabotage the opponent's primary has ever been more than 2-3% of the total vote (even in small primaries) and B) those wacky college anarchists are why you have 8 years of Obama.

Actually, that's because African-Americans and to a lesser extent, Hispanics got on the Obama train. If the Obama coalition had just remained young white voters like it was in the beginning, Obama would be in the same situation as Bernie is right now.


But apparently we need to clear up some misconceptions about "independent voters"

There basically aren't any. http://cookpolitical.com/story/6608

Everybody is well aware than there are no true indies. I've been firm on this - if people want to effect change, they've got two options -

A) Continue to be registered independents and be special snowflakes that aren't part of any organized party

B.) Or actually register as a Democrat and work toward building the party.

I've got no problems with same day registration of new voters because they're legitimately making that choice for the first time, but yes, if you suddenly "realize" you want to be a Democrat instead of a independent a week before the primary, great! But, I still don't want you voting in the primary. Vote in the general and vote in the next primary, when you've actually been a member of the party for more than two seconds.
 

teiresias

Member
Everybody is well aware than there are no true indies. I've been firm on this - if people want to effect change, they've got two options -

A) Continue to be registered independents and be special snowflakes that aren't part of any organized party

B.) Or actually register as a Democrat and work toward building the party.

I've got no problems with same day registration of new voters because they're legitimately making that choice for the first time, but yes, if you suddenly "realize" you want to be a Democrat instead of a independent a week before the primary, great! But, I still don't want you voting in the primary. Vote in the general and vote in the next primary, when you've actually been a member of the party for more than two seconds.

I'm not even going that far. I'm fine if someone wants to register the day of the primary and register as a Democrat at the same time - but if they register the day of they have to register as a Democrat to vote in the primary. If they refuse to register as a Democrat the very day they want to participate in a Democratic Party nominating contest, sorry no voting in a Democratic primary for them because they've so obviously got that "special snowflake" mentality so far up their backside that they have no business helping decide any party's nominee.
 
I'm not even going that far. I'm fine if someone wants to register the day of the primary and register as a Democrat at the same time - but if they register the day of they have to register as a Democrat to vote in the primary. If they refuse to register as a Democrat the very day they want to participate in a Democratic Party nominating contest, sorry no voting in a Democratic primary for them because they've so obviously got that "special snowflake" mentality so far up their backside that they have no business helping decide any party's nominee.

I'd be fine with this. I'd prefer a slight waiting period (like max, a month, probably 2 weeks before the primary, same day for new voters), but I definitely won't budge on who gets to vote in DNC business.
 

Teggy

Member
Trump directly accusing the president of treason now, with a Breitbart link.
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/743075154507489280

Against my better judgement I actually read that Breitbart link. It doesn't imply any direct support for Al Queda. All it is is a summary of the state of the conflict in Syria, stating who was lining up on the resistance side and who was lining up on Syria's side. It notes that Al Queda is included in the groups fighting Assad and it specifically warns about the IS.

There are no specifics about funding or anything of that nature. It is simply describing the situation at hand.
 

Bowdz

Member
Trump directly accusing the president of treason now, with a Breitbart link.
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/743075154507489280

Lmao, Trump and other far right pundits just have no fucking comprehension about geopolitics in any form. The memo is literally scoping out groups that oppose Assad at the time when taking him out was the primary mission. Surprise surprise AQI was one of those groups. Trying to claim Obama supports ISIS and in turn, their ideals, makes about as much sense as saying Trump supports rape because he supports a convicted rapist.
 
Just heard what the robotic sounding "anti-protester" message is like at a Trump rally.

"Raise your rally sign and chant 'Trump-Trump-Trump' and security will take care of the protestor. Thank you for making America great again"

Yup something about that hits those "sounds scary" buttons.
 

Kusagari

Member
Trump apparently just believes anything he reads.

Can you imagine him being president and just accusing countries or various crap he read online?
 

Gruco

Banned
A) There's never been evidence that trying to sabotage the opponent's primary has ever been more than 2-3% of the total vote (even in small primaries) and B) those wacky college anarchists are why you have 8 years of Obama.

A) Is an great argument against open primaries. 2-3% has been shown to matter, regardless of delegate math. Michigan lead to months of counterproductive wishful thinking.

B) is basically arguing that these people already have a voice in the process and that the system as it's set up now allows an insurgent candidate to succeed, assuming he expands his support from this base.


But apparently we need to clear up some misconceptions about "independent voters"

There basically aren't any. http://cookpolitical.com/story/6608
I think this is almost universally known here. It seems like you're misunderstanding people's goals in why registering is important. It's not about fear of moderates, or whatever, it's about giving people who are more ideologically predisposed to the Democrats than the Republicans a reason to step into the system and work from within it. The alternative, as Sanders has shown, is to stand outside and brag about purity, which is not helpful. The point of closed primaries isn't to keep people out, it's to bring people in.

To be honest I don't see a compelling need for reform one way or the other. There are good and bad reasons to have both open and closed primaries, and the current mix of both seem to strike a balance pretty well.

Yeah. The fact that young voters skewed heavily for Sanders and that the pro-Hillary folks are all on board with suppressing voter turnout for that group is pretty appalling. This is like folks wanting the assault weapons ban (aka the scary looking guns ban) re-instated after Orlando and people on the no-fly list not able to buy guns - it is obvious none of them have actually read the assault weapons ban and/or have not realized that the shooter wasn't on the no-fly list.

Regarding the assault weapons ban

Also - the shooter didn't have an AR-15; he had a Sig Sauer

OK in all seriousness you cannot in the same post accuse people disagreeing with you of bed-wetting while calling it "appalling" that they want to register more democrats.

Regarding the assault weapons tangent...what? That's such a bizarre series of points. People are not supposed to want assault weapons banned or want more limitations connected to the no fly list because it isn't a sure fire solution to this particular instance? Do I even have to explain why this is a bad argument? Maybe there are people trying to claim it was a bullerproof solution but I've seen more people just lamenting that the current system is a disaster and that it's sad that we can't seem to do basically anything.
 

pigeon

Banned
So let me clarify who you exactly are disenfranchising. You're disenfranchising (primarily young) democratic voters. Due to the mostly non-competitive nature of the Democratic primary + the candidates involved and their extreme demographic shifts this year - you're getting a ton of young folks to the voting polls for probably the first time in their lives by having open primaries and same-day registration, and since those voters tend to skew dramatically Democratic...congratulations, your policies have made it harder for the Democrats to continue to hold the advantage in presidential elections.

I appreciate this argument, but I think to really bear it out I'd want to see whether Bernie supporters today are Democrats in four years. Or in November! Ultimately Obama picked up all those college kid supporters in the current primary system eight years ago and converted them to permanent Democratic voters. If this argument holds true, wouldn't you expect the Democrats to have weaker registration and generally less advantage in closed primary states, eight years later?

Yeah. The fact that young voters skewed heavily for Sanders and that the pro-Hillary folks are all on board with suppressing voter turnout for that group is pretty appalling. This is like folks wanting the assault weapons ban (aka the scary looking guns ban) re-instated after Orlando and people on the no-fly list not able to buy guns - it is obvious none of them have actually read the assault weapons ban and/or have not realized that the shooter wasn't on the no-fly list.

Well, I mean, "everything that is possible is useless" is not a super helpful argument. I am not under any particular impression that the assault weapons ban or a no-fly ban based on the current list would necessarily help. At the very least, though, normalizing gun control policies is probably a political win that can help lead to further policies. If there are better gun control arguments that might actually help and actually get passed I'd like to hear them. I have a whole post about my new gun control position but I am still working out the idea in my head.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Are we actually seeing the last gasp of the modern GOP?

...Naaaaaaaaaaah. They're fucked until they get rid of the cancer completely.
 

Emarv

Member

Teggy

Member
Herman Cain is out stumping for Trump today. Says he is not a racist.

EDIT: Trump is speaking again today? CNN doing the empty podium watch.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
While I obviously don't agree with Trump's and the GOP's strategy following the Orlando strategy, I feel like Democrats are dropping the ball as well. To go straight to calling for an assault weapons ban along with this whole "No fly, no buy" bill I feel is missing an opportunity to enact some real, effective gun control legislation.
 
Alright, honest question here regarding white men's support for Trump: Isn't the level of ethnic diversity that America is approaching basically unprecedented? I'm not trying to defend Trump supporters, but is there really any country we can use to compare with what's happening here? It's understandable (but unfortunate) that the demographic in power is reacting so negatively to it.

It's just, I see (specifically) European posters on this board lamenting the horrible racial issues we have over here (and dismissing their own far right-wing movements as "small") but isn't the comparison basically unfair? Unless we're seeing European countries with emerging minority-majority generations of young people like we are.

Obviously as a straight white dude I wish other straight white dudes weren't so awful.
 
While I obviously don't agree with Trump's and the GOP's strategy following the Orlando strategy, I feel like Democrats are dropping the ball as well. To go straight to calling for an assault weapons ban along with this whole "No fly, no buy" bill I feel is missing an opportunity to enact some real, effective gun control legislation.
What would real gun control be? I usually see it presented as a Supreme Court issue rather than a legislative one.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Rick Scott (GOV-FL) signed a law that requires that protesters stay 500 feet away from funerals. (Ooops, in 2013).

Frankly, I'd even take it a step further and protesters should stay out of sight from any funeral proceedings.

Why should the right to assemble apply in such cases anyway?
It happens once, and it's a time limited event. I don't see the chance of abuse. Making it 500 ft does dramatically reduce the chance of abuse though.


Lawmakers tried to pass a similar law in 2012. It failed, In large part because the bill specifically banned protests for specific groups. The new law includes anyone’s funeral. Supporters say the new law will make it easier for a family to grieve.

lol, why would they try a bill with specific groups, did any of these people take law classes?
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
What would real gun control be? I usually see it presented as a Supreme Court issue rather than a legislative one.
Things like closing the gun show loophole, expanded background checks, psych evals, mandatory safety and training classes, gun registration, etc.

An assault weapons ban isn't going to do much if that's all it is.
 
Worth noting that the pdf which breitbart uses to write their fanfiction article with was released in May of 2015 so if there was anything even remotely true in there it would have been found by now, it's not new at all.
 
Rick Scott (GOV-FL) signed a law that requires that protesters stay 500 feet away from funerals.

Frankly, I'd even take it a step further and protesters should stay out of sight from any funeral proceedings.

Why should the right to assemble apply in such cases anyway?
It happens once, and it's a time limited event. I don't see the chance of abuse. Making it 500 ft does dramatically reduce the chance of abuse though.

lol, why would they try a bill with specific groups, did any of these people take law classes?
Honestly, anybody should be able to have a funeral in peace. Even funerals for terrible people.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Honestly, anybody should be able to have a funeral in peace. Even funerals for terrible people.

Yeah, and there are other better times and places if protesters want to protest.
Also, I missed that this was signed into law in 2013. I need to redouble my date checking efforts.
 

Teggy

Member
Katy TurVerified account ‏@KatyTurNBC 7m7 minutes ago
3 new polls today showing Trump's negatives rising. Trump doesn't address specifically but mentions "the phony poll numbers."

Let the unskewing begin!
 

“His job is to be Mr. Trump,” said Rob Gleason, the chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican Party. “His appeal is very different than a normal politician. Usually, when we have rallies for people, we prepare weeks in advance. All he has to do is announce three days ahead of time he’s going to be somewhere and a huge crowd shows up. It always energizes people

How did that work out for Bernie?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom