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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

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This is a really good article about mass shootings and histories of violence:

http://www.vox.com/2016/6/14/11922576/orlando-shooting-omar-mateen-gun-domestic-violence

Here are my feelings on gun control: mass shooters don't necessarily come out of nowhere. They generally have histories of anger, violence, substance abuse, family trouble, and very frequently domestic violence. The problem is that we don't consider those histories to be mental illness. That's just normalized as "being an asshole" as part of a culture of toxic masculinity until they go ahead and kill people.

Large-scale gun control seems very challenging given the constitutional requirements in America. But violent crime in general is ticking downward -- it's mass shootings that are ramping up. And it's already clearly constitutional to deprive specific people of access to guns. So although we probably can't ban guns in general, we can do our best to ban possession of guns by people who are likely to use them to commit mass shootings.

To start out, I think we should have a federal ban on gun possession or purchases for people who have a TRO, a restraining order, or a conviction for domestic violence. If we get the watchlist ban, we should just add these people to the watchlist, since we know from data that they are actually very likely to be violent dangers to others. I'd seek to expand this ban over time to other specific groups of people with histories of violent behavior. I think this is a policy that has constitutional backing, might actually be achievable, and might actually have an impact on mass shootings in America.

If I could only choose one gun law to pass, it would be this. I think it is the simplest, most feasible way to do the most good.
 

Would be a disaster, while he's not doing well with the general public, his supporters have gained more fervor for him now more than ever. He was right, no one else can stop this massive threat, and everyone who is against him is a traitor.
 

pigeon

Banned
I have no idea what to do about the problem of many domestic violence incidents not being reported, it's a similar problem to unreported rapes where the victim is scared or doesn't know what to do.

That's just a culture of misogyny. The step I would take to start addressing this is to elect Hillary Clinton, since she has spent a lot more time than any of us thinking about the culture of misogyny (and I mean I think about it a bunch). But, like, a strong campaign about domestic violence, and specifically that domestic violence leads to other violence and mass violence, would be a good place to focus. Ramp up the importance of reporting and eliminating that stuff. It's not just "in the family," wifebeaters are dangers to society.
 
Would be a disaster, while he's not doing well with the general public, his supporters have gained more fervor for him now more than ever. He was right, no one else can stop this massive threat, and everyone who is against him is a traitor.

It's a disaster either way. They have to cut out the Tea Bag/Birther/fuckitracistbigotedcrazyperson demo of the party and start becoming more centrist if they want to have any power considering demographic shifts. I almost feel like them taking a stand against this now will quicken the process. If they don't kill it this cycle then its going to be a slow bleed that will marginalize the GOP for at least the next 8 years and push a lot of funding to centrist Democrats.

Cut out the cancer and take the L.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Unless the house and senate manages to flip in November, don't expect any kind of gun legislature being enacted on the federal level. You may get some local laws here and there, but nothing else. The NRA is going to pump so much money into keeping pro-gun legislatures in office this November.

If twenty children being killed in school doesn't get anything meaningful legislation, there's no way the death of 49 LGBT individuals will cause any meaningful blip on the legislative radar among Republicans.

I had a dream last night, where Obama's last act as POTUS was an executive order proscribing the NRA as a terrorist organisation - seizure of assets, forbidding of donations and all.
 
So does that mean that procedurally, if a sufficient number of states chose to pass that would keep him under the threshold and then chose to pass again; any and all states would be able to reassign its votes?
To me it sounds like if enough states abstain such that a majority is not reached, it counts as a sort of bonus ballot round, where effectively polling them again would be the de facto "first ballot" as delegations could only change their votes after that. It reads like a fancy way of just saying that any group that passes gets another chance to vote before the normal additional balloting procedures come into play. A first ballot left incomplete would not count as one toward beginning the unbinding process for the other states. One assumes this clause has been around for a looooong time as a catch-all for states that have delegations but might not have had state conventions and don't even know who the candidates are. After the incomplete ballot they presumably could make an informed decision while the other states had to still use their original vote.

So,
Ballot 1: Incomplete.
Ballot 2: Same rules as ballot 1 for bound delegates.
Ballot 3: Follows delegate rules for what would normally have been ballot 2, etc. You could run this out indefinitely until all delegates were unbound, I guess?

That would be soooo awesome to watch on TV.
 
Lopez-Cantera says it doesn't look like Rubio will jump in.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/carlos-lopez-cantera-marco-rubio-senate-224359

Maybe when Jolly said "the fix is in", he meant that there is no way he'll win the Senate primary.
Hopefully.

If Rubio wants to make a lasting impact in the Senate based on Sunday's events he could grow some spine and sponsor a gun control bill. Trump supporting the no-fly list ban, Fox News anchors supporting assault rifle bans... It almost looks like the pieces might be coming together, but I don't think there's been any actual movement within Congress (Portman just endorsed the no-fly list ban after voting against it, but didn't seem super jazzed about it). We'll see. Everyone has a conscience. Maybe the Pulse shooting awoke some in the GOP.
 
Alright, honest question here regarding white men's support for Trump: Isn't the level of ethnic diversity that America is approaching basically unprecedented? I'm not trying to defend Trump supporters, but is there really any country we can use to compare with what's happening here? It's understandable (but unfortunate) that the demographic in power is reacting so negatively to it.

It's just, I see (specifically) European posters on this board lamenting the horrible racial issues we have over here (and dismissing their own far right-wing movements as "small") but isn't the comparison basically unfair? Unless we're seeing European countries with emerging minority-majority generations of young people like we are.

Obviously as a straight white dude I wish other straight white dudes weren't so awful.

Yeah, Europe can be annoying on these issues. Just look at how they're suddenly clutching pearls over their social net when some brown people might get some of it too.

What would real gun control be? I usually see it presented as a Supreme Court issue rather than a legislative one.

Things like closing the gun show loophole, expanded background checks, psych evals, mandatory safety and training classes, gun registration, etc.

An assault weapons ban isn't going to do much if that's all it is.

Virtually none of this will pass, and most of it wouldn't really do anything either. The gun show loophole only matters if you need to avoid a background check (something that most mass shooters would pass anyway), background checks are inherently going to leave out people without records (aka lone wolf mass shooters), and psych evals won't do much either (since most of them aren't actually mentally ill; we just use the circular logic "How do we know they're crazy? They killed people! Why did they kill people? Because they're crazy!". Training courses would be nice, but again, they won't do anything to stop most mass shooters.

Realistically, there's nothing to do about it unless we severely crack down on the 2nd through the courts. Turn gun rights into what the right's done for abortion rights; erode them until it's basically intellectually dishonest to say "Hey, you still have the right to bear arms!"

This is a really good article about mass shootings and histories of violence:

http://www.vox.com/2016/6/14/11922576/orlando-shooting-omar-mateen-gun-domestic-violence

Here are my feelings on gun control: mass shooters don't necessarily come out of nowhere. They generally have histories of anger, violence, substance abuse, family trouble, and very frequently domestic violence. The problem is that we don't consider those histories to be mental illness. That's just normalized as "being an asshole" as part of a culture of toxic masculinity until they go ahead and kill people.

Large-scale gun control seems very challenging given the constitutional requirements in America. But violent crime in general is ticking downward -- it's mass shootings that are ramping up. And it's already clearly constitutional to deprive specific people of access to guns. So although we probably can't ban guns in general, we can do our best to ban possession of guns by people who are likely to use them to commit mass shootings.

To start out, I think we should have a federal ban on gun possession or purchases for people who have a TRO, a restraining order, or a conviction for domestic violence. If we get the watchlist ban, we should just add these people to the watchlist, since we know from data that they are actually very likely to be violent dangers to others. I'd seek to expand this ban over time to other specific groups of people with histories of violent behavior. I think this is a policy that has constitutional backing, might actually be achievable, and might actually have an impact on mass shootings in America.

I'm all for more watchlists to restrict gun ownership. And I'd require some form of insurance and massive taxation on weapons so that they become prohibitively expensive to own and people will guard them better than they do.

Oh, you left a loaded gun in your car and it was stolen and used to commit a crime? Cool, the liability insurance you have to pay a month determined that you were at fault and so you get to cover the damages! That'll get people to lock the damn things up at home.

How can Trump be dumped at this point?

A quick rule change to unbind the delegates on all ballots would do it. I think they could convince enough of them to accept their parachuted candidate. Or they could whip up some superdelegates on the spot. How doesn't really matter; it's the risk/reward of whether it would be worth it to ditch him.

If I was a Republican strategist, I'd dump Trump. He's really fucked up in the last month with the electorate, and it's showing badly from almost all sources. You can't run from the guy if he's at the top of your ticket. To run him means that he represents your party, and that stench will destroy most of their careers. Trump is right-wing McGovern or Mondale; he'll end up eroding every one of their victories for the last 30 years with this reputation. We're talking governors, senators, representatives, hell, even dogcatchers here. No one will be able to say their a Republican until a right wing Bill Clinton can come in and explain that he's not like the nutjobs were.

And that's a long time away, politically. If they can't find such a candidate in the next 16 years, then the Court will likely end up 7-8 deep with liberal justices, Congress will get fixed of its gerrymandering (preferably by computers instead of just Dem rigging), and a majority of states will be lead by left-wing governments who will accept most federal programs that require consent from the states. Trump is going to bring in a disaster for the GOP platform (regardless of whether he even knows what's on it) for the next 3 decades. Dump him (again, if you're a Republican. If you're a Democrat, then enjoy the fire currently raging in the dumpster behind the largest Goodyear tire factory in the country).
 
It's a disaster either way. They have to cut out the Tea Bag/Birther/fuckitracistbigotedcrazyperson demo of the party and start becoming more centrist if they want to have any power considering demographic shifts. I almost feel like them taking a stand against this now will quicken the process. If they don't kill it this cycle then its going to be a slow bleed that will marginalize the GOP for at least the next 8 years and push a lot of funding to centrist Democrats.

Cut out the cancer and take the L.

Yep. They're not winning the white house and the smarter more experienced members of the GOP have already figured this out. But allowing the extremist, Thrump/Tea Party wing of the party to continue to steer the ship will lose them the House and eventually Congress.

If the was in charge of the GOP I would dump Trump now, and let him leave and take the crazy, racist and homophobes. Let them go fuck off into their own extremist party like the Greens. Let the Democrats take the next few presidential runs while the GOP regroup and steer the ship in a more centrist direction. Just concentrate on local elections mayoral and gubernatorial while we regroup
 
I can't imagine Rubio jumping back in. He damaged his brand pretty damn hard during the primaries. He absolutely hates being a Senator, clearly. The ads against him write themselves. I'd be really surprised if he did. But, then again, maybe he doesn't want to pitch life insurance on teevee for the next thirty years or something.

Also, being an adult is terrible. Thank you.
 
Rubio is the most hated politician in Florida by a pretty large margin according to the polls after his "Trump has a small dick!" routine.

It's what happens when a normal politician starts to think he can play by Trump's rules.

Rubio really puts into perspective how what would kill a normal politician 1000 times over just doesn't apply to him
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
How can Trump be dumped at this point?

For it even to proceed to ballot he has to be formally nominated and seconded. If nobody can be found to do that (or, more realistically, if everyone can be persuaded not to), then he is dumbped.

(I think I'll leave that typo in)
 
It continues.

Breaking: Republican Larry Hogan of Maryland declares he will not vote for his party's nominee. by @OvettaWashPost

5ca67f11725b57823fd7a17cdc2c966e.gif
 
That's just a culture of misogyny. The step I would take to start addressing this is to elect Hillary Clinton, since she has spent a lot more time than any of us thinking about the culture of misogyny (and I mean I think about it a bunch). But, like, a strong campaign about domestic violence, and specifically that domestic violence leads to other violence and mass violence, would be a good place to focus. Ramp up the importance of reporting and eliminating that stuff. It's not just "in the family," wifebeaters are dangers to society.

I've seen a few pros to having domestic violence separated as a crime, but I think I'd still prefer it if we just called it assault (and its various additions like "-with a deadly weapon" etc...). Calling it domestic violence implies that it's no one's business, but that would clearly be silly if we were talking about someone getting beaten up in the streets. Why does it matter who's getting attacked?
 
I don't even know how you can hate that job. Like WTF.

I know, right? For what a Senator makes, I'd do whatever the fuck they want me to do.

Stealth brag: I quit my full time job few weeks ago to focus on my part time jobs, going back to school, and volunteering for Queen. I had applied for this one job like two months ago. They kept stringing me along, so I thought...well, who cares. Two days ago, they made an offer. I went completely insane on my demands...and they basically gave me everything I wanted. (Except weekends off, which is fine, really...) So....yay me? I guess. If you can't tell, I'm very happy. (The job is too good to pass up even if I wanted to.)
 
There isn't anywhere else. Coincidentally if we did have a 28-30% minority population we would not be on the verge of Brexit right now. There's a big shoe to drop in Europe regarding race and most Europeans are in total denial about it. That's why the rest of the UK country feels so alien for a Londoner.

It seems like some of governments don't really concern themselves about race specifically because the group isn't big enough to matter in politics, because the governments don't want to look like racists, or something else. Although, there is discussions about the Muslim populations.
 
What popcorn brand is recommended for the upcoming Repub convention?
Popcorn? We're all going to be black-out drunk. For others I assume the preferred snack is the legally-mandated GAF standard Dew And Doritos.™

Actual answer: Look in to some of the unflavored or "natural" ingredient stuff that are local brands at your standard grocery store. Those typically taste like actual popped corn and are more fresh.

Also, petition to raise the fire level of the GOP situation. A google images search for "large fire" has so many results we could use a hundred a day until the election and have plenty to spare. Dumpster fire has worked since Trump entered and I've been using tire fire lately, but might I propose we upgrade to "warehouse fire"? Like this:

An aside, but can I recommend that we include a picture of Burning Man in the RNC convention OP?
 

avaya

Member
It seems like some of governments don't really concern themselves about race specifically because the group isn't big enough to matter in politics, because the governments don't want to look like racists, or something else. Although, there is discussions about the Muslim populations.

Southern Strategy variant works for the right in Europe. That's where we are at.
 

Diablos

Member
Trump trying to jump on the #NoFlyNoBuy bandwagon? Lol. Welcome to the cause as queenie says, but seriously Don, you're a spineless troll no matter what and you're only doing this because you are worried about your Presidential aspirations after your latest fuck up.
 

pigeon

Banned
I've seen a few pros to having domestic violence separated as a crime, but I think I'd still prefer it if we just called it assault (and its various additions like "-with a deadly weapon" etc...). Calling it domestic violence implies that it's no one's business, but that would clearly be silly if we were talking about someone getting beaten up in the streets. Why does it matter who's getting attacked?

I kind of take the opposite view. Domestic violence is worse than assault, that's why it's separated. We could call it "assault on a family member," I guess.
 

Zona

Member
Popcorn? We're all going to be black-out drunk. For others I assume the preferred snack is the legally-mandated GAF standard Dew And Doritos.™

Actual answer: Look in to some of the unflavored or "natural" ingredient stuff that are local brands at your standard grocery store. Those typically taste like actual popped corn and are more fresh.

Also, petition to raise the fire level of the GOP situation. A google images search for "large fire" has so many results we could use a hundred a day until the election and have plenty to spare. Dumpster fire has worked since Trump entered and I've been using tire fire lately, but might I propose we upgrade to "warehouse fire"? Like this:


An aside, but can I recommend that we include a picture of Burning Man in the RNC convention OP?

l.jpg


jkq0dm6modsubaw59qy0.jpg


H7Q504v.jpg
 
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