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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

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CCS

Banned
The most striking one from that link I posted:

This means that nearly 4 in 10 of us think the number of children in EU countries receiving Child Benefit from the UK is 40 to 100 times the actual level.
 
Anyone else think it's pretty funny that, despite Donald Trump being the one who's constantly compared to fascists, Clinton is the one who's campaign slogan is literally "Stronger Together"? Makes me chuckle.
 

Anoregon

The flight plan I just filed with the agency list me, my men, Dr. Pavel here. But only one of you!
Brexit is the purest argument against democracy, in that most of the electorate have no clue what they are voting on. See here for an example: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/research...3742/The-Perils-of-Perception-and-the-EU.aspx

I read an article recently in the Economist about how leaving really important national-level shit up to referendums is actually a pretty terrible idea most of the time. Misinformation is just too easy to disseminate and the consequences are too large. As is usually the case with the Economist, I found myself in pretty easy agreement.
 

ampere

Member

HillaryByeBernie.gif

omg. you are the best.
 
Since the GOP Convention is ahead of the Democratic Convention.

Hillary should wait and see if Trump survives nomination before making her pick..

Adjustments must be made on who should be Clinton's VP if the Republicans dump Trump
 
Since the GOP Convention is ahead of the Democratic Convention.

Hillary should wait and see if Trump survives nomination before making her pick..

Adjustments must be made on who should be Clinton's VP if the Republicans dump Trump
This is likely not going to happen but I bet she wants to see who his VP is too.
 

kirblar

Member
You're linking to a trash source with a blatant ideological bias that is badly misrepresenting the original NYT article. Notice how the data magically lines up when they "eliminate republicans" from the supporters? Gee, I wonder why that happens.

Here's the original article: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/23/opinion/campaign-stops/do-sanders-supporters-favor-his-policies.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

Yet commentators who have been ready and willing to attribute Donald Trump’s success to anger, authoritarianism, or racism rather than policy issues have taken little note of the extent to which Mr. Sanders’s support is concentrated not among liberal ideologues but among disaffected white men.

More detailed evidence casts further doubt on the notion that support for Mr. Sanders reflects a shift to the left in the policy preferences of Democrats. In a survey conducted for the American National Election Studies in late January, supporters of Mr. Sanders were more pessimistic than Mrs. Clinton’s supporters about “opportunity in America today for the average person to get ahead” and more likely to say that economic inequality had increased.

However, they were less likely than Mrs. Clinton’s supporters to favor concrete policies that Mr. Sanders has offered as remedies for these ills, including a higher minimum wage, increasing government spending on health care and an expansion of government services financed by higher taxes. It is quite a stretch to view these people as the vanguard of a new, social-democratic-trending Democratic Party.

Mr. Sanders has drawn enthusiastic support from young people, a common pattern for outsider candidates. But here, too, the impression of ideological commitment is mostly illusory. While young Democrats in the January survey were more likely than those over age 35 to call themselves liberals, their ideological self-designations seem to have been much more lightly held, varying significantly when they were reinterviewed.

Moreover, warm views of Mr. Sanders increased the liberalism of young Democrats by as much as 1.5 points on the seven-point ideological scale. For many of them, liberal ideology seems to have been a short-term byproduct of enthusiasm for Mr. Sanders rather than a stable political conviction.

Three things predict a Sanders supporter: Age, Race, and Class (Middle vs not-Middle). Not liking the data doesn't make it not true.

And of those three things, Race is the common ground with what we're seeing on the Right.
 

Wilsongt

Member
H. A. Goodman ‏@HAGOODMANAUTHOR 8h8 hours ago

#DropOutHillary https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGx9o4GX84Y … FBI and DOJ to Indict Hillary Clinton Before Convention. Stay Patient Bernie Sanders.

It's like he is sitting there behind Bernie and patting him on the back and telling him not to give up hope.

I await the pillar of salt moment. It will make even Lot's wife jealous and salty.
 

CCS

Banned
I imagine you probably all saw the thread, but if proof was needed of how dangerous Trump-esque figures are regardless of whether or not they win, a British pro-Remain MP has died after being shot and stabbed by a man who allegedly shouted "Britain First." RIP.

I'm so sick of these fascists and their followers.
 
The Brexit vote would be fine if people were forced to study 4-5 years of economics before voting on it. Economic literacy is just so fucking lol

Plus side: if they do leave, we will get such a major example to show people what really bad economic policy gets you.
 
I can't believe I'm sat here in 2016 and for the first time in my life thinking 'Well at least I don't ever have to move back to the UK'. Just... not like this people. Not like this :/

I really hope remains wins, and the gamble pays off and the UK are forced to be friendlier to the EU as a result. The betting odds predictors haven't moved much in the wake of these recent polls (still about 60% chance of stay winning basically), but... eurgh. Britain has becoming increasingly more isolationist and racist over the last 12 years since I left, and measurably so.

If remain wins it might start to turn that around. If exit wins, it'll be a whole bomb of shit exploding all over the country.
 

ampere

Member
Brexit as a consequence of Cameron is a good argument for why there are worse voting systems than 'first past the post'

Getting a shit party in power without even getting the majority of the vote because the vote is split among a few parties can be disastrous
 

SheSaidNo

Member
You're linking to a trash source with a blatant ideological bias that is badly misrepresenting the original NYT article. Notice how the data magically lines up when they "eliminate republicans" from the supporters? Gee, I wonder why that happens.

Here's the original article: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/23/opinion/campaign-stops/do-sanders-supporters-favor-his-policies.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0



Three things predict a Sanders supporter: Age, Race, and Class (Middle vs not-Middle). Not liking the data doesn't make it not true.

And of those three things, Race is the common ground with what we're seeing on the Right.

I don't think removing republicans from the sample is misleading. There was also another analysis of the survey posted here as well.


from here http://www.telesurtv.net/english/op...-Up-the-Masses-or-the-Few--20160331-0068.html
 
Brexit as a consequence of Cameron is a good argument for why there are worse voting systems than 'first past the post'

Getting a shit party in power without even getting the majority of the vote because the vote is split among a few parties can be disastrous

I'm no fan of Cameron, but I'm not yet at the diablosing position of thinking the gamble has failed. If Cameron's gamble pays off, I'll be glad they held a referendum, because it basically will force the UK to be a friendlier partner to Europe than they have been. The EU will be able to hold the referendum over the UK's head, where as previously the UK have been holding the threat of quitting over the EUs head.

The post remain referendum UK is not the same as the one that would exist without the referendum.

I'll be livid if the gamble fails... so I think I have to give him at least some credit if the gamble pays off. Britain First and all that have been a growing cancer in the nation I am currently still proud to call my own. This could help cut that cancer out.

Or it's going to speed up the migration to every other major organ.

I wish we had the results already. The referendum is only bad if leave wins, otherwise it was a good move. Cameron obviously thinks Remain will win and it was a put up or shut up moment to move beyond a lot of this anti EU rhetoric coming from his right.
 

Iolo

Member
The Brexit vote would be fine if people were forced to study 4-5 years of economics before voting on it. Economic literacy is just so fucking lol

It might even work if there were a few people whom the general populace chose and trusted to study these issues and make decisions, maybe even made a job of it---I'm not sure if this has ever been tried though

Meanwhile, Clinton Campaign takes control of DNC on schedule, and Trump's campaign continues to be a large tire fire
 

Teggy

Member
When House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) was asked Thursday about what he thought of the GOP's presidential nominee revoking the Washington Post's campaign credentials, he had an idea.

"Don’t think I have ever heard of it before. I think that’s a new one," Ryan said.

Then he called on the Washington Post directly to ask a question, an unusual move especially because Ryan's staff had just signaled to reporters that the press conference was wrapping up.

Just blatantly antagonizing each other. Amazing.
 

Hazzuh

Member
The Brexit vote would be fine if people were forced to study 4-5 years of economics before voting on it. Economic literacy is just so fucking lol

Plus side: if they do leave, we will get such a major example to show people what really bad economic policy gets you.


I plan to vote Remain but I feel like posts like this are misguided. The conservative party never had an issue with when the "EU" was purely an economic body. This whole thing stopped being purely about economics after the Maastricht treaty at the latest! How do you think people in the USA would feel if NAFTA grew to include most of the countries in the americas and then had a stated aim of total political union between all of the countries involved? Do you not see why arguing purely about the economic benefits might not be sufficient?

Also, how does this differ from any of the other referenda about the EU that various countries have had?
 
It might even work if there were a few people whom the general populace chose and trusted to study these issues and make decisions, maybe even made a job of it---I'm not sure if this has ever been tried though

Meanwhile, Clinton Campaign takes control of DNC on schedule, and Trump's campaign continues to be a large tire fire

I made a bunch of predictions this campaign, many wrong, many right, but the one I'm most surprised at how right I was, was predicting a couple of weeks back that by the end of this week the DNC would be more unified than the GOP.

I had no idea that the contrast would be this stark already. It's pretty amazing.
 

Maledict

Member
Brexit as a consequence of Cameron is a good argument for why there are worse voting systems than 'first past the post'

Getting a shit party in power without even getting the majority of the vote because the vote is split among a few parties can be disastrous

Um, I don't really understand this, sorry.

Britain *is* first past the post. That's how Cameron got in. In a proportional system the conservatives would probably be locked out of government for a long, long time.

First past the post in a parliamentary system enables a party that gets less than 50% of the vote to have a majority in parliament. In fact it's almost always the case, even in landslide elections.
 
I plan to vote Remain but I feel like posts like this are misguided. The conservative party never had an issue with when the "EU" was purely an economic body. This whole thing stopped being purely about economics after the Maastricht treaty at the latest! How do you think people in the USA would feel if NAFTA grew to include most of the countries in the americas and then had a stated aim of total political union between all of the countries involved? Do you not see why arguing purely about the economic benefits might not be sufficient?

Also, how does this differ from any of the other referenda about the EU that various countries have had?

Arguably the USA is more like the EU itself than it is like any one individual country within it. States all already have their own very differing laws, and so on and so forth. I've lived in Britain and the US, and if you don't think Texas and Massachusetts are at least as different as the UK and France, say, then perhaps you should take a closer look.

The long term goal of the EU as I've always understood it is to become more like *this* union. At some point we will want a world government I think, if you look far enough ahead, but I don't think that will be the end of all the various cultures around the world.

Brexit has more in common with Texas seceding that it has your analogy about NAFTA.
 

ampere

Member
Um, I don't really understand this, sorry.

Britain *is* first past the post. That's how Cameron got in. In a proportional system the conservatives would probably be locked out of government for a long, long time.

First past the post in a parliamentary system enables a party that gets less than 50% of the vote to have a majority in parliament. In fact it's almost always the case, even in landslide elections.

What I meant to say... is that the two party system isn't as bad as the situations where minority parties can win that can occur in British and Canadian parliament

Yea my use of 'first past the post' there was incorrect, not sure what I was thinking

edit:
I think in particular the parliamentary multi-party system would only work as I would like without 'first past the post' and with the ability to pick a second choice.
 

pigeon

Banned
I plan to vote Remain but I feel like posts like this are misguided. The conservative party never had an issue with when the "EU" was purely an economic body. This whole thing stopped being purely about economics after the Maastricht treaty at the latest! How do you think people in the USA would feel if NAFTA grew to include most of the countries in the americas and then had a stated aim of total political union between all of the countries involved? Do you not see why arguing purely about the economic benefits might not be sufficient?

Well, I mean, we'd feel fine, but we're Germany in this equation. Americans would probably generally be okay with adding Mexico, Canada, Brazil, etc. as states. They're the ones who would be pissed.

I agree that the sovereignty concerns are valid. The problem is that I think that Europe needs to become a functional union to remain politically and economically relevant, so I go the opposite way. The EU needs to become a fiscal union and take responsibility for the economic well-being of its members, not let Germany strip mine the other countries.
 
Arguably the USA is more like the EU itself than it is like any one individual country within it. States all already have their own very differing laws, and so on and so forth. I've lived in Britain and the US, and if you don't think Texas and Massachusetts are at least as different as the UK and France, say, then perhaps you should take a closer look.

The long term goal of the EU as I've always understood it is to become more like *this* union. At some point we will want a world government I think, if you look far enough ahead, but I don't think that will be the end of all the various cultures around the world.

Brexit has more in common with Texas seceding that it has your analogy about NAFTA.

This. The EU is an attempt to remain relevant in the world stage by countries that individually would be ignored if not banded together. If the UK leaves, they had better be ready to get left out of every deal that involves the EU (since the EU would always be worth more than the UK if the two were opposed).
 

teiresias

Member
The Brexit vote would be fine if people were forced to study 4-5 years of economics before voting on it. Economic literacy is just so fucking lol

Plus side: if they do leave, we will get such a major example to show people what really bad economic policy gets you.

Doesn't seem anyone wanted to learn anything from Austerity.
 

kirblar

Member
Well, I mean, we'd feel fine, but we're Germany in this equation. Americans would probably generally be okay with adding Mexico, Canada, Brazil, etc. as states. They're the ones who would be pissed.

I agree that the sovereignty concerns are valid. The problem is that I think that Europe needs to become a functional union to remain politically and economically relevant, so I go the opposite way. The EU needs to become a fiscal union and take responsibility for the economic well-being of its members, not let Germany strip mine the other countries.
Yup. The problem is that you can't have independent governments without control of their own currency, or you get what's happening where everything's tailored to the big dogs and the others can't fix their issues.
 

kirblar

Member
I don't think removing republicans from the sample is misleading. There was also another analysis of the survey posted here as well.

from here http://www.telesurtv.net/english/op...-Up-the-Masses-or-the-Few--20160331-0068.html
It is when you're trying to look at "Who are the Sanders voters and why are they voting that way."

Race != Racial Resentment. You can be not racist and still be one of the white voters voting that way because you see the "real problem" as income inequality. You can even be a non-white voter viewing things that way! (See: Francis Fukuyama)

People don't like framing things this way because they feel "attacked". Too bad.
 
So that document supposedly showing some epic massive collaboration between the DNC and the Clinton campaign is out. It's seriously so itsfuckingnothing.gif that I'm not even going to link to it. The only times her name comes up is in regards to needing a media strategy to counter the preexisting media narratives against her of a lack of trustworthiness. It's also from May 2015, so, again, seriously meaningless.

The majority of it is strategies and tactics for discrediting GOP candidates. In May 2015 the DNC considered the biggest threats to be Jeb!, Rubio, Walker, Paul and Christie.
 
So that document supposedly showing some epic massive collaboration between the DNC and the Clinton campaign is out. It's seriously so itsfuckingnothing.gif that I'm not even going to link to it. The only times her name comes up is in regards to needing a media strategy to counter the preexisting media narratives against her of a lack of trustworthiness. It's also from May 2015, so, again, seriously meaningless.

The majority of it is strategies and tactics for discrediting GOP candidates. In May 2015 the DNC considered the biggest threats to be Jeb!, Rubio, Walker, Paul and Christie.

This is the part that's driving Bernie people up the wall
Reporter Outreach: Working through the DNC and others, we should use background briefings, prep with reporters for interviews with GOP candidates, off-the-record conversations and oppo pitches to help pitch stories with no fingerprints and utilize reporters to drive a message.

So yea, load of nothing as usual
 
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Latest on Campaign 2016 (all times EDT):

Republican Donald Trump is slamming AFL-CIO leadership for its decision to endorse his likely rival, Democrat Hillary Clinton.

The likely GOP nominee in a lengthy statement accuses the AFL-CIO of selling out its members by endorsing a candidate he alleges is "the enemy of working people."

He says, "The leadership of the AFL-CIO has made clear that it no longer represents American workers."

Trump goes on to predict the union's members will wind up voting for him in much larger numbers than Clinton in November, despite their union's endorsement.

He adds that Clinton's ties to Wall Street means she "is the enemy of working people." Trump vows to "fight harder for American workers than anyone ever has."

Just a thought but maybe slamming the AFL CIO isn't the best way to earn union worker support.
 
You're linking to a trash source with a blatant ideological bias that is badly misrepresenting the original NYT article. Notice how the data magically lines up when they "eliminate republicans" from the supporters? Gee, I wonder why that happens.

Here's the original article: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/23/opinion/campaign-stops/do-sanders-supporters-favor-his-policies.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

Three things predict a Sanders supporter: Age, Race, and Class (Middle vs not-Middle). Not liking the data doesn't make it not true.

And of those three things, Race is the common ground with what we're seeing on the Right.

On Jacobin, the garbage source, a wonderful profile by Vox:
http://www.vox.com/2016/3/21/11265092/jacobin-bhaskar-sunkara
Jacobin, which turned 5 this year, is perhaps the most relevant and important publication of the American political left today. Unlike more academic journals, it is always timely, globally oriented, and topically eclectic. Just this past week its website featured stories on the political crisis in Brazil, on the Kurdish militant group PKK (a key part of the anti-ISIS coalition), on how President Obama's Supreme Court appointment exemplifies the "liberal politics of accommodation," and on the racial politics of metal fandom.

Please stop demonizing any attempt at dissent from the narrative simply because you want it to be true.

Just like the fun Bernie Sexism train: http://thebaffler.com/blog/my-kind-misogyny
 
I remember when Jacobin wrote an article about the left being silenced because a Vox editor encouraging people to assault random Trump supporters got suspended for one week.

Anyway, it seems Brexit is a good bit about stupidity as well I guess?

chart1_econintegration_1.jpg
 
Aren't pro-Brexiters just white nationalists? There seems to be very little justification of why Britain should leave other than "immigrants!"

The issue with the EU isn't the EU, it's the Euro.

I find the former to be more true than the latter. Complaints about the Euro or Brussels have morphed into dog-whistles.

If it weren't so disastrous for so many people, I'd say let them leave. From a US perspective, it's just been childish to assume that we'd keep every deal we've ever made with the UK in the same terms after leaving your much more well-off and secure business partners.
 

CCS

Banned
I remember when Jacobin wrote an article about the left being silenced because a Vox editor encouraging people to assault random Trump supporters got suspended for one week.

Anyway, it seems Brexit is a good bit about stupidity as well I guess?

chart1_econintegration_1.jpg

Pretty much. Most leave voters are racists, idiots, or both.
 

Hazzuh

Member
Arguably the USA is more like the EU itself than it is like any one individual country within it. States all already have their own very differing laws, and so on and so forth. I've lived in Britain and the US, and if you don't think Texas and Massachusetts are at least as different as the UK and France, say, then perhaps you should take a closer look.

The long term goal of the EU as I've always understood it is to become more like *this* union. At some point we will want a world government I think, if you look far enough ahead, but I don't think that will be the end of all the various cultures around the world.

Brexit has more in common with Texas seceding that it has your analogy about NAFTA.

I appreciate you're point and I agree to some extent but I don't really buy it completely. I haven't travelled through the US that much (I've only been to the east coast a few times) but I don't buy that US states are as different as countries in the EU. Just looking at economics, the US state with the lowest median family income (Mississippi as far as I can tell) only differs from the US state with the highest median family income (Maryland) by less than a factor of two. Between EU countries its more like a factor of 10. Unemployment rates by states in the US vary between 2.5 and 6.6, in the EU 2.4 and 24.4. There is still (bit of a old study but w/e) far less labour mobility between EU countries than there is between US states. These economic differences are a big reason for the Eurozone crisis.

Additionally I think it's self evident that there are greater cultural difference between EU countries than there are between US states. First of all there is the obvious language barrier but there is also the fact almost every EU country has a totally self contained media. News, entertainment, sport etc are all clearly far less unified than the US.

So I don't really think it's like Texas voting to secede. I don't think there is as much solidarity between countries in the EU as there is between US states and I think the past few years have shown that. Even worse, when you look at things like Schengen & the Eurozone crisis it seems like the EU is creating division rather than reducing it.

Aren't pro-Brexiters just white nationalists? There seems to be very little justification of why Britain should leave other than "immigrants!"

There are three main groups IMO. 1) Socialists who hate the EU for the same reason they hate free trade agreements etc. These were the original eurosceptics from the 1970s. 2) Traditionalists who are angsty about parliamentary sovereignty and things like that. This group includes lots of Conservative MPs and became a big issue in the 1980s and 1990s. 3) Racists. The BNP & UKIP folks who have somehow blamed the EU for the migration of Pakistani and Indian people to the UK.
 
I appreciate you're point and I agree to some extent but I don't really buy it completely. I haven't travelled through the US that much (I've only been to the east coast a few times) but I don't buy that US states are as different as countries in the EU. Just looking at economics, the US state with the lowest median family income (Mississippi as far as I can tell) only differs from the US state with the highest median family income (Maryland) by less than a factor of two. Between EU countries its more like a factor of 10. Unemployment rates by states in the US vary between 2.5 and 6.6, in the EU 2.4 and 24.4. There is still (bit of a old study but w/e) far less labour mobility between EU countries than there is between US states. These economic differences are a big reason for the Eurozone crisis.


Additionally I think it's self evident that there are greater cultural difference between EU countries than there are between US states. First of all there is the obvious language barrier but there is also the fact almost every EU country has a totally self contained media. News, entertainment, sport etc are all clearly far less unified than the US.

So I don't really think it's like Texas voting to secede. I don't think there is as much solidarity between countries in the EU as there is between US states and I think the past few years have shown that. Even worse, when you look at things like Schengen & the Eurozone crisis it seems like the EU is creating division rather than reducing it.



There are three main groups IMO. 1) Socialists who hate the EU for the same reason they hate free trade agreements etc. These were the original eurosceptics from the 1970s. 2) Traditionalists who are angsty about parliamentary sovereignty and things like that. This group includes lots of Conservative MPs and became a big issue in the 1980s and 1990s. 3) Racists. The BNP & UKIP folks who have somehow blamed the EU for the migration of Pakistani and Indian people to the UK.

Just to clarify, I don't think the differences between the states are as widespread as the differences between the most different countries in the EU, but that the differences between some of the states are more different than the differences between a lot of member countries like the UK and France.

I wasn't trying to say the US is as diverse as Europe, but that parts of it are as different as some of the different countries in the EU.
 

blackw0lf

Member
So Debbie Wasserman Schulz is no longer the chief operator of the DNC, though she still retains the title

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/16/politics/hillary-clinton-campaign-dnc/index.html

Hillary Clinton's campaign is taking the reins of the Democratic National Committee, installing a new top official on Thursday to oversee the party's day-to-day operations through the general election.

Brandon Davis, national political director for the Service Employees International Union, will become the general election chief of staff for the Democratic Party. His selection formalizes the coordination of the Clinton campaign and the committee, a stark contrast to Donald Trump who is currently at odds with his party....

"This is in fact what happens," Howard Dean, former Democratic Party chairman, told CNN. "Debbie will still have the title, but somebody else will be the effective operator of the DNC. It's Hillary's pick."...
 

Hazzuh

Member
Just to clarify, I don't think the differences between the states are as widespread as the differences between the most different countries in the EU, but that the differences between some of the states are more different than the differences between a lot of member countries like the UK and France.

I wasn't trying to say the US is as diverse as Europe, but that parts of it are as different as some of the different countries in the EU.

Oh, sorry lol! My bad, should have read your post more thoroughly before going off on one.
 
Oh, sorry lol! My bad, should have read your post more thoroughly before going off on one.

Living in the UK I didn't appreciate how different parts of America are from each other until I moved here. Going to Texas from Mass for the first time was an eye opener.
 
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