balladofwindfishes
Member
A rejected Trump would still be just as capable of monopolizing media airtime to savage the GOP nominee and shit-talk the party, regardless of whether he's actually running third-party. Their guy (let's say Paul Ryan) would never get a chance to define himself in a positive way or establish any legitimacy. It would just be conspiracy theories and howls of victimization to November and beyond, made even more powerful by the fact that the conspiracy was real and the establishment actually did victimize them. The only way I see a replacement GOP candidate doing even marginally ok (defined as keeping within 5-10 points of Hillary) is if Trump does something truly insane like dropping the n-word.
I don't think the new candidate could establish legitimacy because they would not be a legitimate candidate. The attack ads would write themselves. Hillary certainly wouldn't hold back on attacking the GOP for going against the people.