I agree but I also think it’s going to be PS6 cross gen time by the time we see the next God of War, Horizon, Uncharted, Last of Us and Gran Turismo. They have said themselves they want one big AAA game per year. This year it’s Astrobot which isn’t going to move the needle on hardware sales so you’re talking Spring 2025 which we already know is going to be Death Stranding 2 (the original was niche and very divisive) and for Winter it will be Venom (which is Spider-Man 2 DLC in all but name) so then we’re looking at 2026 for probably Barlog’s sci-fi IP (which will not be a draw because well… it’s a new IP) and Wolverine (could be a big hit but again I don’t see it moving hardware in any significant way like Spider-Man would). Late 2027 will then be time to launch PS6.
The above along with the change in management and the strategy switch from the GaaS strategy back to the same single player narrative focus which made PS4 so successful is imo why Sony have used the kind of language they have about PS5 like talking about how PS5 is now “in the later stage of it’s life cycle” etc. They also cannot give it a major price cut like previous Playstation’s due to the price of silicon.
They are already planning way ahead to PS6 for when we will see the major big hitters arrive like Spider-Man 3, Horizon 3, TLOU 3, God of War 3, Uncharted 5 and Gran Turismo 8. I think they will make these games PS6 exclusives to encourage hardware sales because making games cross gen and going to PC just hasn’t worked for them. They should be far ahead of PS4 launch aligned but instead are behind. That’s on management (thankfully they changed recently).
This will be seen as a learning and transitional generation in years to come for both PlayStation and Xbox. They both misfired massively but for totally different reasons.
Several things to address here.
- Sony said they plan to have 1 big tentpole game each holiday, not 1 per year. Prior to that they've stated 2 or more tentpoles per year. This year has games like FF7 Rebirth to act as a tentpole for example.
- The PS6 will launch holiday 2028 by all reasonable accounts.
- There is no indication of a switch away from live service games. A few games either being cancelled for various reasons or not greenlit is not an indication of such, that's simply the nature of video game development. In addition to their 3 existing live service games (MLB, Destiny 2, Helldivers 2) there are still 7 to 9 more live service games still being worked on
- Most major tentpoles released after the PS6 launches won't be made exclusive to that console for one simple reason - Sony will want to sell units of games and doing so on a platform that has a very limited user base like a newly launched console is not wise. As always they will strike a balance with some enticing exclusives and plenty of cross gen content for the first year or so while the PS6 establishes itself, then they'll go fully into PS6 only games. This gen just has an extra year or so of crossgen due to the pandemic delaying things.
- I will bestow upon you my prediction on how I see the next 5.5 years playing out for Sony, which will help to illustrate the tsunami of games I anticipate are about to drop on us:
Ok, current list of how I think the rest of the gen could play out. It's not factoring in any data from the Insomniac hack and just goes with what I already had. This is announced content, leaked, rumored, deduced, speculated and includes console exclusives. This is based on the guess that this gen will go until holiday 2028, and it also encompasses an additional 1 year cross-gen period, so up until holiday 2029. This list is what I think will on the lower end of things and in fact there will be FAR FAR FAR more content in reality, but I gotta start somewhere! Before I was breaking it down by year just to spread things out, but fuckit, I'm just going with the Great List of Viv
(feel free to let me know what's missing)
Concord
Little Devil Inside
Baby Steps
Wuthering Waves
Astro Bot
Neon Koi's game
Spider-Man 2 DLC
Lost Soul Aside
Sword of the Sea
Convallaria
Phantom Blade 0
Lego Horizon Adventure
Death Stranding 2 On The Beach
Jason Blundell's game
Matter
Silent Hill 2 Remake
Until Dawn PS5/PC
Project Mugen
ULTROS
AI Limit
Wolverine
DokeV
Crimson Desert
Zenless Zone Zero
MLB25
Marathon
Neil Druckmanns game (new IP)
Fairgame$
Bluepoints game
Horizon Online game (Guerrilla games)
Horizon MMORPG (NCSoft)
Cory Barlogs game (new IP)
Destiny 2 post-The Final Shape content
Horizon Zero Dawn Remaster
One of the two game-type metaverse titles Jim Ryan mentioned
Bloodborne PS5/PC
Meteora: The Race Against Space Time
Fishbowl
Mukti
Requital: Gates of Blood
Suri: The Seventh Note
Spider-Man smaller title ala Miles Morales (probably Venom)
MLB26
Ghost of Tsushima 2
Housemarque new IP
Gravity Rush Collection PS5/PC
LEGO Horizon Adventure 2 (Forbidden West)
Jak & Daxter remaster/remake of some sort (assuming there is a movie)
Media Molecules next game
Uncharted (ND/VASG collab)
KOTOR
Bend new IP
Gran Turismo 8
Dark Narrative from Firesprite
Horizon 3
Final Fantasy 7 part 3
Ember Lab XDEV game
Sumo Digital game
God of War next mainline entry
MLB27
Havens next game after Fairgame$
Ratchet & Clank sequel to Rift Apart
From Software XDEV game
Ghost of Tsushima Legends 2
Team Asobi game (another one)
Ballistic Moon game
MLB28
Project Ooze
One of the two game-type metaverse titles Jim Ryan mentioned
Project Awakening
TLOU Part 3
Spider-Man 3
MLB29
Physint