While I don't believe Astro Bot s going into its launch as a "tent pole" I do think Sony is confident that it will achieve "tent pole" status post-launch. It could also be that this year things just didn't work out perfectly as expected, and this mandate will happen starting next year, we can't really be certain. So yes they'll have a tentpole each holiday, but they'll have many more tentpoles throughout the year, both from first party, XDEV and third parties.
Yes, I think that out of the three categories Astro fits more into "experimental", which they mentioned as:
-Showcase innovation, unlock new audiences, target new genres
-High potential games, with discipline on scope and budget
I don't see them confident with it to consider it tentpole and I assume, it had a relatively low budget and I assume they don't aim for huge sales. I see it as something to research new usages of the DualSense and also trying to have another platformer series with hopefully around 5M+ sales, in the level of Ratchet or a bit above it.
Definetively I don't think they see it as the SP AAA game that sells 15M+ units. And yes, this year as a whole, not only in holidays season, as usual they'll have many tentpole SP games from both 1st and 3rd party, plus now also "transformational" MP/GaaS bangers not only in 3rd party, but also in 1st party.
They don't seem to count GT7 as a live service, at least they haven't on previous slides.
Of course they consider it a live service because it's a live service. They consider it both a live service and single player, a "multi-genre".
The thing is that in a table where they had in a column a few games that were MP GaaS and in other column a few games that were only SP non-GaaS there wasn't a place for it, it made more sense to include other examples that represented better each column.
It doesn't make sense to think that at all the many GaaS that weren't in the old slides aren't considered GaaS by Sony. In the same way that doesn't make sense to think that all the many non-GaaS SP games that weren't on that slide aren't considered SP game by Sony. That would be non-sensical. They were obviously just slides with a few examples, not an exhaustive list of all the IPs they had inside each group.
It's a bit questionable whether they count Firewall Ultra too, they could just view it as a multiplayer game rather than live service.
You may not like the game and maybe wasn't successful, but it was a live service game. Just like Destruction All Stars.
Yup, those 3 would be in the "cancelled" pile and in the "not greenlit" pile it looks like we can include Twisted Metal and the Spider-Man live service games.
Yes
Bends new IP seems to have MP elements, but no evidence of it being a live service as of right now. For the remaining live service games I'd list:
The official data says it's an open world new IP built on top of concepts they had from Days Gone. They originally wanted to add MP there, and later left it hopefully for the sequel. So maybe rehashed it here.
We saw references to both MP elements and live service elements in job offers. But who knows.
Marathon
Fairgame$
Concord
Project Gummy Bear and/or Matter
Destiny 3 (maybe)
Horizon Online by Guerrilla
Horizon MMO by NCSoft
Jason Blundell's team (the L.A. team you referenced)
So yup, no sign that they're reversing course on live service games, they're still full steam ahead.
Convallaria is published by SIE, but not an owned IP.
There are rumors of a new handheld from Sony that can play PS4 games
Yes, there's also people who says that the earth is flat. I give them both 0% credibility. What it would make sense would be to make a PC handheld to run their PC games (which would include many of their PS4 and PS5 games).
As far as the cross-gen period goes, this gen it was only supposed to be the first year and then it'd be current gen only from 2022 onwards (at least for first party). The pandemic extended that, but yeah I expect next gen it'll be about 1 year of cross-gen and then they'll do PS6 only games. The live service games would likely remain cross gen just due to the nature of what they are and requiring a larger user base.
No, in the "we believe in generations" interview (as I remember from a few months after release) Jim Ryan said they were going to continue supporting PS4 during several years.
It doesn't make sense to spend a budget of multiple hundreds of millions in games published only on a console with a few millions of userbase. In fact, AAA games being published these years took around 5-9 years to be developed. Meaning, many of them started as PS4 only games because during its first years didn't have access and didn't even know what technology was going to have the PS5 because still didn't exist. And later down the road they made an improved version for PS5.
A Bluepoint rep tweeted just about a week or so ago that they are still working on an original title, so yes there is a "Bluepoint game"
Absolutely never anyone from Sony or Bluepoint ever said that they are leading their own new game after Demon's Souls.
They always said -including this guy you mention- to be working (never said leading) on 'original content', an 'original game' or 'original title'. Same words they were using when all their entire team was working on GoWR. Being as Sony called them, a "partner" (support) studio.
Firesprites horror game has many folks think it's Until Dawn 2, but we'll have to wait and see. Others think that the Ballistic Moon game could be UD2. It's very possible they've got another game in development that wasn't Twisted Metal, we'll have to wait and see. I'd probably wanna wait for more leaks or news before adding anything else to my list.
I think it's Until Dawn 2 -maybe codeveloped with Ballistic Moon- because Firesprite hired many former Supermassive people, and because they are making this unneeded Until Dawn remake.