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[SHA]

So there's the immobilized unit and the mobilized unit.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Every first party game that's released has been.

1st party game, yes. But what about third-party games that are not in Play Anywhere?

That leaves MS, which is asking people to invest in its hardware once again, with two options,:

• Make those games forward-compatible with their (supposed) PC store.
• Or ask their previous customers to fuck off, saying you can't play those purchased games anymore.

The 1st one seems like the only logical route, especially if they want people to buy their next HW.

 

[GoldenEye98]

Feel like a lot these "just build a hybrid PC device" takes are from people who have significant investment in their Steam libraries...probably moreso than even their Xbox libraries(if they even have much of one)

Microsoft trying to placate to an audience who can buy a multitude of devices/PC's to play their Steam library will certainly mean the death of Xbox.

PC gaming enthusiasts are not who Microsoft should be listening too imo...they are not the mainstream consumer.

 

[YeulEmeralda]

This would be fucking stupid. Microsoft can't compete with Switch or Steam deck.

 

[Topher]

Feel like a lot these "just build a hybrid PC device" takes are from people who have significant investment in their Steam libraries...probably moreso than even their Xbox libraries(if they even have much of one)

Microsoft trying to placate to an audience who can buy a multitude of devices/PC's to play their Steam library will certainly mean the death of Xbox.

PC gaming enthusiasts are not who Microsoft should be listening too imo...they are not the mainstream consumer.

This whole notion of a "hybrid PC device" was started by Phil Spencer himself, not PC gaming enthusiasts.

'Spencer mentioned his frustrations with closed ecosystems, so we asked for clarity. Could he really see a future where stores like Itch.io and Epic Games Store existed on Xbox? Was it just a matter of figuring out mountains of paperwork to get there?

“Yes,” said Spencer. “[Consider] our history as the Windows company. Nobody would blink twice if I said, ‘Hey, when you’re using a PC, you get to decide the type of experience you have [by picking where to buy games]. There’s real value in that.” Spencer believes console players would benefit from that freedom too — and so would console makers like Microsoft.'

He continues to state that subsidizing hardware may not make sense anymore.

“[Subsidizing hardware] becomes more challenging in today’s world,” Spencer said. “And I will say, and this may seem too altruistic, I don’t know that it’s growing the industry. So I think, what are the barriers? What are the things that create friction in today’s world for creators and players? And how can we be part of opening up that model?”

Phil Spencer wants Epic Games Store and others on Xbox consoles

Phil Spencer, the CEO of Microsoft Gaming, explained why he wants more stores — like Epic Games Store and Itch.io — on Xbox in Polygon’s interview during GDC 2024.

www.polygon.com

 

[djjinx2]

I love handheld devices as well, and I love my SD a lot. My point is that SD is already offering what Xbox could offer and that, too, at a significantly lower price point because Valve could subsidize SD with the very popular Steam store.

The rumors are that Xbox is going the OEM route, which means either one of two things:

• It has a closed Xbox storefront. That would make the device cheaper (subsidized as SD), but it will offer fewer options than SD as users wouldn't be able to download Steam, Epic, or retro emulation games. OR.
• It is open as in users could download Steam, Epic, etc. In that case, MS wouldn't be able to leverage the closed ecosystem to subsidize the device, which means the device will have to be sold at profit, making it significantly more expensive than, say, a Steam Deck.

Neither route works for this Xbox device, IMO. One offers less value; the other makes the device way too expensive than competing devices.

Why would anyone buy that over a Steam Deck that offers top-notch hardware and software.

Wrong. The rumours are Microsoft are working on 2 next gen devices, with the possibility of opening up to OEM also.

This tells us that an Xbox mode in Windows is coming. And that MS look to be trying something different.

You say Valve can subsidise SD, but fail to comprehend this is exactly what every console MF has done forever.

Xbox revenue can subsidise hardware right? As most money is from GP + Sales + Micro transactions.

Fucking hell here's a thought for you. Sales from selling games on Sony and Nintendo consoles could subsidise Xbox hardware

It could go either way at this point.

They (MS) have clearly had internal struggles hence different rumours of direction.


Whichever way it goes as HeisenbergFX stated we will know very soon either way.

Personally I hope for one more gen as a last hail Mary before giving in

 

[ManaByte]

But what about third-party games that are not in Play Anywhere?

Funny you should mention that. About 90% of the time if a third party game is added to PC and console Game Pass, it automatically makes it Play Anywhere for previous owners; regardless if its exclusive to the console or not.

 

[Fess]

I have no idea who's waiting for something like this that hasn't already just bought a ROG Ally or whatever's on the market right now.

I assume they wouldn’t just slap Windows on it and call it a day. Think of it as Steam Deck with focus on Xbox and Gamepass. Using actual Windows would be a last resort separate boot, like Linux on Steam Deck, for installing mods or shuffling around files. The standard UI would be like on Xbox consoles.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

If the next Xbox is a traditional console, it will fail. Even if it's aimed at being a weaker traditional console, it will fail, as Series S has shown. There is no future for Xbox as a traditional console; that path has closed.

However, if "traditional console" is being used in the sense to convey what a PC-like Xbox is going to convey in its user experience, while still having some of the main benefits of PC gaming (modular upgradable components, ability to run Windows apps natively, alternative gaming storefronts accessible (w/ Game Pass subscription in this case as a soft-subsidizer)), and with a pricing model that such functionality can justify while having good profit margins...then there is a path for them in hardware. Not one where they are competing directly with PlayStation anymore (the same with the rumored handheld towards Switch 2, BTW), but can carve out a niche between the high-volume traditional console market and comparatively low-volume pre-built gaming PC NUCs & portables market.

This should be incredibly obvious to even a low-level employee at Microsoft Gaming, and the only reason I can see Microsoft trying yet again with an actual traditional console is out of pettiness & hubris driven by Phil Spencer. That kind of move would take Xbox from having at least some kind of hardware presence in gaming, to having nothing at all.

 

[YeulEmeralda]

They will serve a niche without much of a cost. They're likely to go with for profit hardware for "next gen" with little to no next gen only games (then again with the way they're treating console users, maybe not) . They won't have any retail presence with it either in terms of game distribution and cost would just be a digital store only a small minority uses. It all depends which way they decide to go.

Microsoft a trillion eurodollar company does not serve niches.

 

[Topher]

Funny you should mention that. About 90% of the time if a third party game is added to PC and console Game Pass, it automatically makes it Play Anywhere for previous owners; regardless if its exclusive to the console or not.

You mean if a third party game is added to the Microsoft Store. That's a pretty massive "if" since the vast majority of third party games never make it there.

 

[TheDreadLord]

If this handheld allows me to have access to my Xbox library then I’m really interested in it. It will definitely be the ultimate Windows Gaming Handheld.

 

[GoldenEye98]

This whole notion of a "hybrid PC device" was started by Phil Spencer himself, not PC gaming enthusiasts.

'Spencer mentioned his frustrations with closed ecosystems, so we asked for clarity. Could he really see a future where stores like Itch.io and Epic Games Store existed on Xbox? Was it just a matter of figuring out mountains of paperwork to get there?

“Yes,” said Spencer. “[Consider] our history as the Windows company. Nobody would blink twice if I said, ‘Hey, when you’re using a PC, you get to decide the type of experience you have [by picking where to buy games]. There’s real value in that.” Spencer believes console players would benefit from that freedom too — and so would console makers like Microsoft.'

He continues to state that subsidizing hardware may not make sense anymore.

“[Subsidizing hardware] becomes more challenging in today’s world,” Spencer said. “And I will say, and this may seem too altruistic, I don’t know that it’s growing the industry. So I think, what are the barriers? What are the things that create friction in today’s world for creators and players? And how can we be part of opening up that model?”

Phil Spencer wants Epic Games Store and others on Xbox consoles

Phil Spencer, the CEO of Microsoft Gaming, explained why he wants more stores — like Epic Games Store and Itch.io — on Xbox in Polygon’s interview during GDC 2024.

www.polygon.com

Yeah I don't get it from a business standpoint. Once you are agnostic when it comes to what digital stores can operate and run on your device you are just a hardware maker at that point. That's cool but there are tons of PC devices out there so what's radically setting your hardware apart?

Also once an "Xbox" can play games PC games...you've just incentivized every developer to stop making an Xbox version of the game imo.

This seems like a great way for Microsoft to take it's current ~30M traditional console market....to I dunno 5M at best?

 

[DJ12]

Even with deeper pockets, no way MS can make a better and affordable handheld than Valve.

Better wouldn't be hard, there's several better already.

Problem is the technology isn't ready, AMD need a couple more goes to make their Z# processors anywhere near efficient enough.

The Z1 is great, but it's too power hungry.

 

[Topher]

Yeah I don't get it from a business standpoint. Once you are agnostic when it comes to what digital stores can operate and run on your device you are just a hardware maker at that point. That's cool but there are tons of PC devices out there so what's radically setting your hardware apart?

Also once an "Xbox" can play games PC games...you've just incentivized every developer to stop making an Xbox version of the game imo.

This seems like a great way for Microsoft to take it's current ~30M traditional console market....to I dunno 5M at best?

I think perhaps in Microsoft's mind that they would rather sell 5 million units at a profit than 30 million at a loss. That's the only rationale I can come up with really, because otherwise, like you, I don't get it either.

 

[FIREKNIGHT2029]

Any traditional console from MS is DOA.

I'm curious to see what they'll come up with in a handheld, it's still probably DOA but there's a better chance for them here to come up with something interesting.

Edit: It's Jez Corden article? Oh, this rumor is probably bulshit then.

 

[Punished Miku]

I think perhaps in Microsoft's mind that they would rather sell 5 million units at a profit than 30 million at a loss. That's the only rationale I can come up with really, because otherwise, like you, I don't get it either.

They're getting positioned for the future in 10-15 years. No one knows how fast it will arrive. In that future, lots of people will play on cloud, mobile / handheld, and a shrinking number of people will have dedicated local hardware. They'll make it and sell it for a profit if you want it, but if people don't want to buy it, they're not losing money on it anyway. It'll be a niche market. Most people can't really even imagine what a PS7 will look like, or even confidently say it will for sure exist.

 

[Darsxx82]

You mean if a third party game is added to the Microsoft Store. That's a pretty massive "if" since the vast majority of third party games never make it there.

Well, the vast majority of 3rd party games are released on the XBOXStore... (Xbox series)

It would be as simple as waiting for MS to provide the same means to ensure that this continues on the new hardware, with the difference that those versions of the games could also be run on any PC/handheld with Windows, although not as well optimized. It would be a move that would also benefit the MStore as more games would arrive to it...

I don't know, a priori it is assumed that if MS launches a new hardware/console it will try to provide the means for publishers and developers to launch their games there as has happened with any Xbox console (devkits, APIs, support agreements...) If they do it now with XSeries, I think there will be no problems with a hybrid Xbox whose games can also be run on PC.

Ps. BC games via emulation (BC preservation team)

 

[reinking]

Yeah….. see that last part of your statement? Your money is fickle and they would be foolish to chase your money over mine. You are not invested in the eco system anymore. You could just as easily buy a PS6 and play their games. I’d rather people with your mindset did that than have any say in what the next Xbox should be. You do t even want one. …. Would be a damn shame if they listed to customers like you. You don’t even need an Xbox handheld…. Just by an ally or a steam handheld. But what about Xbox customers. Last time I checked there are still Atleast 30 million of us. And we buy gamepass and everything else they sell vs somebody who just wants a PC and a PlayStation…… we’ll see how it plays out tho. Also…. Console gamers are not PC gamers. This idea that all Xbox gamers are gonna go out and put a spec list together on newegg is a fallacy.



I agree tho… as far as MS messing up, with Xbox…. but they are the only one of the three that can fuck up and still spend money trying to make it right….. last time I checked they just brought the largest publisher in the game and at this point make more money off PS than any publisher. Im not even mad at that. I stopped caring about what is exclusive years ago…. But I wonder how many concords Sony has in them at 400 mill a pop….. I don’t regret spending my money inc box and will continue to do so.

Dude, You seem to be making a whole lot of assumptions that simply are not true. I am an Xbox customer and have been since day one. I would be willing to bet that I have owned more of their consoles than you have because I typically have multiple. This is the first generation I have only had one Xbox console because I only needed one thanks to them bringing all of their games to PC. I never wanted them to ruin the Xbox division with the stupid shit they have done.

You keep going back to the handheld like I am saying I wanted them to go that route. I am not the one that wanted them to make a handheld, they thought of that one all on their own if that is the way they go. What I wanted from them is to do an Xbox branded PC and even at that, I do not want them to kill the console. However, if they do eventually kill the console, I think this would be a good way for them to keep the Xbox brand in the market without it being a loss leader.

You do not seem to be paying attention or are purposely being obtuse. It is Microsoft that is slipping further behind in console sales and pushing more toward third-party/alternate solutions. I do not want them to do that because I am one of the few people that still likes consoles and wants them to have a few exclusives. Will I buy the next Xbox console? I don't know. Do I want that option? Absolutely. Do I want an Xbox branded PC? Sure, if they do not lock down the OS. I have always liked Xbox hardware. You seem to think I want everyone to go to PC. Absolutely false. However, I am an equal opportunity gamer so I game on all available hardware.

 

[GoldenEye98]

The end game of Microsoft not caring about where you buy your games and just becoming a publisher doesn't make sense to me. Historically they are not a content company. Any content they did sell was to further their ecosystems/services.

Xbox makes sense when you are selling software and subscriptions like Live Gold. But just being an ecosystem agnostic game publisher? I don't see it imo.

I mean unless GamePass becomes a giant platform agnostic success I don't see them just being a game publisher.

 

[MisterXDTV]

Also once an "Xbox" can play games PC games...you've just incentivized every developer to stop making an Xbox version of the game imo.

That's the main reason why the minute it runs Steam, it stops being a console

Devs won't make a SPECIFIC version for that hardware at that point, it will be just one of the million possible PC configurations

They are already annoyed by the fact they have to port to Xbox platforms for low sales now. The minute MS hardware stops being "closed" they will pull the plug right away

 

[djjinx2]

I think perhaps in Microsoft's mind that they would rather sell 5 million units at a profit than 30 million at a loss. That's the only rationale I can come up with really, because otherwise, like you, I don't get it either.

It's an interesting one for sure, to see where Xbox is headed.

5 million at profit potentially losing millions of GP users. Doesn't make sense.

Having the hardware as a loss leader to get revenue from the Store/Subscriptions/DLC/In game $$$ makes way more sense.

I'm the perfect user case here, if the next gen was a PC at $1000. I would just build my own and use Steam.

If it's a hybrid PC with great specs at $700, then I would keep my subscription as overall value wise I feel justified in the great bargain I just bought into.

I like Xbox HW, the controller too. But it's always value dependant when it comes to next gen.


How does Xbox go forward and make most money? Not by going full 3rd party. Every single sale they make from first party, GamePass and MTX on Xbox hardware is 30% more profit than if sold on a competitors store.

 

[wolffy66]

The context of this forum is gaming. Put two and two together.

If you think Xbox consoles are doing ok then I don’t know what to tell you.

The fact it's a gaming forum is irrelevant

 

[Dr. Wilkinson]

Lost Odyssey and Blue Dragon in native form on a handheld? Um, yes please

 

[Edgelord79]

The fact it's a gaming forum is irrelevant

You’re right I’m talking about their software business. You got me.

Anyhow I don’t think this is productive so I’ll just agree to disagree.

 

[MisterXDTV]

How does Xbox go forward and make most money? Not by going full 3rd party. Every single sale they make from first party, GamePass and MTX on Xbox hardware is 30% more profit than if sold on a competitors store.

You are forgetting to account for the fact that Xbox console userbase is constantly shrinking at this point

If they put out a "traditional next-gen" console already in 2026 it will sell even less than Xbox Series S/X that are already way down compared to the previous Gen

At what point the userbase becomes so low, it doesn't make sense to sell hardware at a loss?

20 million, 15 million, 10 million?

 

[namenotfound]

It would kinda be interesting though if Microsoft did a more premium take on the Switch.

Like let's say Microsoft did a Switch-like device that was $500-$600 but the docked mode in particular was much more powerful than what a Switch docked mode is doing.

Do you think there would be a market for that?

There is a market but I don't think very large because Microsoft and everyone is limited in the same way that Nintendo is. What can TSMC and Samsung produce at the time and at what price point (Intel foundry is probably too late now)? What can chip designers produce within the limitations of a compact battery powered device? How much more can a dock improve cooling and performace? How much more performance can be had by feeding more power and pushing clocks higher before it breaks?

Legion Go default power setting is ~15w and you can push to 30w but it's performance sweet spot is 15-20w with above that being minor improvements in performance. To get better performance that's actually very significant over the 15w settings, you need another GPU plugged in. So another ~$1000 for a GPU dock and GPU itself. MS could price better but that's a really niche use case to have an external GPU+dock. So $400+ handheld plus a dock a GPU and power supply in it that is less than $1000. Also Legion Go weighs about twice that of a Switch OLED and about 200 grams more than a Deck.

Whatever the Switch 2 is, Microsoft will likely not be capable of making something appreciably more powerful within a couple years of it. They're both customers of chip designers and chip fabricators. If the premium factor is power, since they're both releasing in the same window of years, there's probably not a huge physical difference in what can be produced at their launches. A more "premium" Switch 2 will be heavier, and a more expensive device. If Switch 2 is larger like 8" display as rumored, with the joycons I'd guess 450+ grams. To me weight quickly goes from feeling premium/well made/robust to a negative quick in a handheld. A premium over a Switch 2 quickly gets into a niche weight range where the Switch 2's weight would be a premium factor for it

Then there's the game output and reception of Nintendo vs Microsoft factoring into the premium argument for both. They'd be similar in computing strength enough that I doubt this hypothetical Xbox handheld would get much if anything that a Switch 2 wouldn't get especially if the Switch 2 sells much better than this new Xbox. Power alone isn't enough to make an Xbox the premium choice over a Switch 2. It'll need to be what games does it have that the Switch 2 won't have. Switch 2 at $400 verus a $500 Xbox, not a lot of pricing room for more premium hardware. PS5 versus 4 years later PS5 Pro, 45% higher rendering according to Cerny. ~$200 price difference not including that disc drive and vertical stand. An Xbox handheld will have to sell itself over other handhelds with software

 

[DryvBy]

Interesting that NOV 2026 is the 25th anniversary of Xbox and Halo. If there is a date for something to happen, that could be it.

Then, go back to betting on the traditional console when you are giving the idea that it will not have exclusives...... Either something changes in that regard to the exclusives or it doesn't make sense.

Many unknowns to be resolved in order to give an informed opinion.

Yeah, they'll be releasing Xbox and Halo on PS5.

 

[LordCBH]

They’d lose that 30% cut of third party software sales and would therefore have to increase the hardware price.

That hardware price is going up. The die hards will still buy it, and MS, I can guarantee, REALLY doesn’t want to sell their next Gen at a loss. They’ll be banking on gamepass.

 

[djjinx2]

You are forgetting to account for the fact that Xbox console userbase is constantly shrinking at this point

If they put out a "traditional next-gen" console already in 2026 it will sell even less than Xbox Series S/X that are already way down compared to the previous Gen

At what point the userbase becomes so low, it doesn't make sense to sell hardware at a loss?

20 million, 15 million, 10 million?

Getting a 2 year headstart on the competition wouldn't be a factor?
Even if they sold less, every single one sold makes up for the HW losses in gained platform revenue (Controllers, MTX, DLC, Games, GamePass)

What do I know though 20 million platform users and a loss on HW must be worse than 5 million users and getting out of making HW.

Even going full 3rd party makes no sense. There's toooo much revenue made from having their own platform. Even if it's shrinking.


If sales can decline then they can also grow. Look at Wii U to Switch.


I'm sure people can give *reasons* why that's different though. Like Mario. But Sony just made Astro Bot. Things can change and anything is possible.

Very narrow minded views around

 

[RetroGamingUK]

That hardware price is going up. The die hards will still buy it, and MS, I can guarantee, REALLY doesn’t want to sell their next Gen at a loss. They’ll be banking on gamepass.

Isn’t GamePass also running at a loss?

Kinda made sense when subscribers were growing, now I’m not so sure.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Funny you should mention that. About 90% of the time if a third party game is added to PC and console Game Pass, it automatically makes it Play Anywhere for previous owners; regardless if its exclusive to the console or not.

You're not getting my point. It doesn't matter even if it is 99.99%. It has to be 100%. Otherwise, the bad PR - and maybe even potential lawsuits - wouldn't be worth for MS.

 

[djjinx2]

That hardware price is going up. The die hards will still buy it, and MS, I can guarantee, REALLY doesn’t want to sell their next Gen at a loss. They’ll be banking on gamepass.

How can MS bank on GamePass when only die hards have purchased their console ?

For me GamePass goes hand in hand with Xbox.

Price me out of the hardware then I go PC and Steam like many others have already

 

[LordCBH]

How can MS bank on GamePass when only die hards have purchased their console ?

For me GamePass goes hand in hand with Xbox.

Price me out of the hardware then I go PC and Steam like many others have already

I never said the lads running Xbox were smart.

 

[Brucey]

How can MS bank on GamePass when only die hards have purchased their console ?

For me GamePass goes hand in hand with Xbox.

Price me out of the hardware then I go PC and Steam like many others have already

I would argue that a ton of casuals picked up series s at discount for the cheapest point of entry into gamepass. Also those that couldn't get a series x initially and settled for an s until the x was more widely available. Out of those 28 million sold, prob less than 5 million hard core remain.

 

[MisterXDTV]

Getting a 2 year headstart on the competition wouldn't be a factor?

How would it be?

Do you think people that play on Playstation will jump ship?

They will have PS5 Pro (price reduced) or they will just wait for PS6 that it's sure to be better 2 years later

It's not 2005 anymore where digital libraries didn't exist and it was a reboot every time a new gen started

 

[GoldenEye98]

There is a market but I don't think very large because Microsoft and everyone is limited in the same way that Nintendo is. What can TSMC and Samsung produce at the time and at what price point (Intel foundry is probably too late now)? What can chip designers produce within the limitations of a compact battery powered device? How much more can a dock improve cooling and performace? How much more performance can be had by feeding more power and pushing clocks higher before it breaks?

Legion Go default power setting is ~15w and you can push to 30w but it's performance sweet spot is 15-20w with above that being minor improvements in performance. To get better performance that's actually very significant over the 15w settings, you need another GPU plugged in. So another ~$1000 for a GPU dock and GPU itself. MS could price better but that's a really niche use case to have an external GPU+dock. So $400+ handheld plus a dock a GPU and power supply in it that is less than $1000. Also Legion Go weighs about twice that of a Switch OLED and about 200 grams more than a Deck.

Whatever the Switch 2 is, Microsoft will likely not be capable of making something appreciably more powerful within a couple years of it. They're both customers of chip designers and chip fabricators. If the premium factor is power, since they're both releasing in the same window of years, there's probably not a huge physical difference in what can be produced at their launches. A more "premium" Switch 2 will be heavier, and a more expensive device. If Switch 2 is larger like 8" display as rumored, with the joycons I'd guess 450+ grams. To me weight quickly goes from feeling premium/well made/robust to a negative quick in a handheld. A premium over a Switch 2 quickly gets into a niche weight range where the Switch 2's weight would be a premium factor for it

Then there's the game output and reception of Nintendo vs Microsoft factoring into the premium argument for both. They'd be similar in computing strength enough that I doubt this hypothetical Xbox handheld would get much if anything that a Switch 2 wouldn't get especially if the Switch 2 sells much better than this new Xbox. Power alone isn't enough to make an Xbox the premium choice over a Switch 2. It'll need to be what games does it have that the Switch 2 won't have. Switch 2 at $400 verus a $500 Xbox, not a lot of pricing room for more premium hardware. PS5 versus 4 years later PS5 Pro, 45% higher rendering according to Cerny. ~$200 price difference not including that disc drive and vertical stand. An Xbox handheld will have to sell itself over other handhelds with software

Isn't Switch 2 rumored to be on Samsung 8nm?...which is supposedly more like TSMC 10nm. Not exactly cutting edge nor power efficient..

Either way my argument isn't so much to go too crazy in terms of performance/TDP in portable mode....but the docked mode so it could act as a decent home console as well(although perhaps this is technically tricker than I'm giving credit for). Microsoft could just sell that docked mode hardware as a standalone console as well.

I think that's pretty economical way to leverage a single chipset.

 

[djjinx2]

How would it be?

Do you think people that play on Playstation will jump ship?

They will have PS5 Pro (price reduced) or they will just wait for PS6 that it's sure to be better 2 years later

It's not 2005 anymore where digital libraries didn't exist and it was a reboot every time a new gen started

Such a gaming forum view.

There are millions more casuals than hardcore gamers. They only give a fuck about what the latest or greatest is. Impulse buyers don't care.

Millions bought a Wii U without being loyal to Nintendo. Same with Steam Deck.

I love my Steam Deck for GamePass and Emulators. Not because of Steam. (It's running Windows for FIFA incase you wondered, dual boot Batocera)

 

[MisterXDTV]

Such a gaming forum view.

There are millions more casuals than hardcore gamers. They only give a fuck about what the latest or greatest is. Impulse buyers don't care.

Millions bought a Wii U without being loyal to Nintendo. Same with Steam Deck.

I love my Steam Deck for GamePass and Emulators. Not because of Steam. (It's running Windows for FIFA incase you wondered, dual boot Batocera)

Keep living in dream world but numbers are numbers

And if they release a single expensive console you have to cut that number in half because at least HALF of their current sales are from the cheap, weak Series S

 

[Three]

Microsoft a trillion eurodollar company does not serve niches.

You have a good point but I think it does when it has little running cost and is high margin. They've been doing xcloud for a while and that has even worse running costs and serves a small market so far.

 

[djjinx2]

Keep living in dream world but numbers are numbers

And if they release a single expensive console you have to cut that number in half because at least HALF of their current sales are from the cheap, weak Series S

Not dream world, just saying it's possible to move.

With digital libraries it becomes less likely. Though again millions of people just buy FIFA and CoD.

Just saying it can happen.

Don't be embarrassed for me either, I have no colours on my flag.
Jumped from PS to Xbox to PS to Xbox over the years.

Hell I used to post on Playstation Universe forums and play Driveclub with Insane Metal amongst other Sony die hards who ended up here!

 

[ManaByte]

And if they release a single expensive console you have to cut that number in half because at least HALF of their current sales are from the cheap, weak Series S

The average person doesn’t care how weak the Series S is. They just see that they can get it for under $200 and play 2K, CoD, CFB, etc on it.

 

[RetroGamingUK]

Such a gaming forum view.

There are millions more casuals than hardcore gamers. They only give a fuck about what the latest or greatest is. Impulse buyers don't care.

Millions bought a Wii U without being loyal to Nintendo. Same with Steam Deck.

I love my Steam Deck for GamePass and Emulators. Not because of Steam. (It's running Windows for FIFA incase you wondered, dual boot Batocera)

Do the mass market casuals even like the Xbox brand anymore?

The 360 seems to be a blip in terms of mainstream adoption of Xbox.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

I think if MS could release a powerful handheld that somehow could run Steam as well as Xbox, they would be on to a winner. I doubt that could happen though as Valve will surely be releasing updated Steam Decks over time.

As for the traditional console, i'd just make a super powerful enthusiast console for like $800+ and market it for the enthusiasts. Sell 10-20mil over the gen. Continue releasing games on PC and Playstation (later releases). And release cutdown next gen games on the XSX through next gen, have the XSX kind of as that gens XSS.

Microsoft will be shifting to Day 1 support for PlayStation (and Nintendo, in most cases) within the next couple of years. In fact they'll probably start being more openly consistent with it by late next year. That also includes the XGS games because honestly, those and Indiana Jones (and a few smaller 2P partner games) are currently the only exceptions. Everything else is already Day 1 on PlayStation.

That part of the traditional business model is not going to be present with the next Xbox devices.

Once microsoft releases its own handheld at the same price as switch 2 with gamepass and cloud gaming on it plus all the other goddies, nintendo will have a hard time like competing.
I remember the wii u disaster after the success of the wii.
History will repeat itself once again

You're delusional. Features aren't why Nintendo's systems sell, otherwise the PSP and Vita would've smoked the DS & 3DS.

Ultimately, it's Nintendo's own 1P games that are the major driving force behind the sales of their hardware, and they still exercise the practice of genuine exclusivity of their games to their hardware. That's what helps form the base that 3P games can sell their games unto. None of this is changing with Switch 2, regardless of whatever Microsoft (or Sony, for that matter), do with their rumored handhelds.

Also for Wii U's poor unit sales, Nintendo's own games sold extremely well on it. Arguably the strongest attach rates of software relative install base, in gaming history, on average. So Wii U at least demonstrated the size of Nintendo's high-ARPU hardcore/core enthusiasts is very large, and that size has only grown between Wii U and now.

It's significantly larger for Nintendo, than the same market segment type is for Xbox, and I'd argue, even surpasses Sony's in size, too (remember, just talking high-ARPU hardcore/core enthusiasts when it comes to software sales relative install base).

I don't think Xbox has a closed eco-system starting from next-gen. I think their hardware becomes a side hustle, just like the Surface hardware is a side-hustle for Microsoft in general. They know Sony's done subsidising their console hardware (see: PS5 Pro price) so they don't have to loss lead. USD$1000.00 big boy PC-console hybrid and a USD$549.00 PC-console handheld that both turn a small profit on the hardware alone. They advertise them as Game Pass access points, but now with Steam games, PlayStation PC games, Epic games, etc. Moving forward, they just release their games everywhere - maybe with a period of Xbox hardware exclusivity. If you want Game Pass and early access to their games, you buy their hardware. If you don't, you buy their games wherever you wanna play. In theory, they can sell more games and subscriptions while not bleeding cash on their hardware. No idea if it's a good strategy, but it seems to be what their strategy is going to be.

1: Sony would NEVER let Microsoft legally advertise an Xbox device as running PlayStation 1P games on PC, unless that Xbox device is basically being positioned as a PC but for gaming. Even then, it would be hard to predict, considering past history between the two brands

2: Increase (1) by magnitudes for Nintendo, as that'd be Microsoft promoting piracy

3: Any Xbox system still leveraging Game Pass but also providing alternative storefronts will have to roll both into some offering that makes business sense. That's why I've been saying MS will probably do this, but tie alt-storefront access to having a Game Pass subscription of some kind. It's the easiest, most straightforward and most justified way for them to still get a good cut even if Xbox owners shift their B2P purchases to alt storefronts like Steam, and can soft-subsidize the hardware on their end (since they're getting a decent profit upfront on hardware sales, locking in buyers via a Game Pass subscription).

MS would just have to make sure the alt-storefronts can run natively with as little work on behalf of Valve, Epic, GOG etc. as possible and that's where adding the needed Windows code & utilities to Xbox OS comes in. Support for alt-storefronts would also mean MS have to remove the online paywall for non-F2P multiplayer, leveraging alt-storefront access as a way of replacing that type of value. Which could actually also push Sony to remove their online paywall too & find other, more meaningful ways to justify PS+ as a service.

4: This approach isn't going to see them continue the stagger window between Xbox and other platforms. In fact, that will disappear altogether. MS probably has a larger end-goal of eventually getting Windows itself to seamlessly function as a gaming hub (controller-friendly UI and all) and also play games from OG Xbox onward either through compatibility layers or emulation. But for both technical and financial reasons, that would be the end goal of their gaming division, as it'd also mean the death of Xbox OS and probably the end of Microsoft making specific gaming hardware that isn't peripherals, too. It'd also mean the end of a fortified hardware strategy of using their own hardware to push Game Pass and Xbox Store as market places in a closed/semi-closed environment.

The next Xbox systems will have to provide their value through combination of price, performance, QOL user experience and features, and how they can (smartly) bring the best of console & PC gaming together. MS aren't going to leverage exclusivity or timed exclusivity anymore; they want to also grow their audience on Sony & Nintendo systems so that when they eventually (say mid-2030s) finally make Windows a seamless 1:1 experience to Xbox OS for gaming, and thus likely scale back/cease making specific dedicated gaming hardware, they can get Game Pass on PlayStation & Nintendo. But they can't build up the needed business relationship with SIE & Nintendo, or trust & rapport with PS & Nintendo gamers, by continuing with mixed messaging.

Therefore they have to start communicating more like an actual multiplatform publisher, which includes Day 1 support for all platforms, including PlayStation & Switch 2 (bar some obvious exceptions like a Flight Simulator). And that's probably going to finally start happening by late next year. I'd assume, around or shortly before/after they likely reveal the new Xbox system(s) officially.

 

[djjinx2]

Do the mass market casuals even like the Xbox brand anymore?

The 360 seems to be a blip in terms of mainstream adoption of Xbox.

A blip that MS never capitalised on indeed.

Casuals are more brand agnostic than the hardcore. But it would take a lot for Xbox to win mindshare at this point

 

[RetroGamingUK]

A blip that MS never capitalised on indeed.

Casuals are more brand agnostic than the hardcore. But it would take a lot for Xbox to win mindshare at this point

PS4 and Xbox One were a huge reset, digital libraries weren’t prominent in the prior generation and neither had backwards compatibility at launch.

The bulk of the market chose PlayStation and thanks to digital libraries and x86 guaranteeing backwards compatibility for generations Microsoft didn’t stand a chance of turning it around.

Microsoft now realise this.

 

[Natsuko]

Well, I'm curious to see if and how future Xbox hardware will sell. Even I would probably only buy it because of the kids, if at all. And I have a huge library of Xbox games and have been using them since the first Xbox. This generation hasn't been convincing so far. So how are they going to get me to buy the next Xbox? I'll buy the Switch 2 straight away. My shelf is full of games that I love and have had a lot of fun with.

I'd really have to think about what other exclusive games the Xbox Series had after Forza Horizon 5 that blew me away. I could easily list several that have given me NO pleasure.

 

[Dr. Wilkinson]

Isn’t GamePass also running at a loss?

Kinda made sense when subscribers were growing, now I’m not so sure.

There’s no possible way to know that without having access to their books for FY25. And they certainly don’t want to disclose their margin (assuming there is one) if it’s not doing great.

 

[Topher]

It's an interesting one for sure, to see where Xbox is headed.

5 million at profit potentially losing millions of GP users. Doesn't make sense.

Having the hardware as a loss leader to get revenue from the Store/Subscriptions/DLC/In game $$$ makes way more sense.

I'm the perfect user case here, if the next gen was a PC at $1000. I would just build my own and use Steam.

If it's a hybrid PC with great specs at $700, then I would keep my subscription as overall value wise I feel justified in the great bargain I just bought into.

I like Xbox HW, the controller too. But it's always value dependant when it comes to next gen.


How does Xbox go forward and make most money? Not by going full 3rd party. Every single sale they make from first party, GamePass and MTX on Xbox hardware is 30% more profit than if sold on a competitors store.

But making money on first party sales, GP, etc. depends on the traditional model. That just has not worked. If they move to PC, even as a hybrid, then they effectively have become a third party publisher but with their own store that very few will use except for those with existing Xbox gaming libraries. Steam will still be king on PC. Microsoft is actively pulling the carpet out from under their own console. They nerfed the console version of PC. They have advertisements downplaying the need for a console at all. The writing is on the wall, I'm afraid. The volume of sales on Xbox consoles is simply not enough. Phil Spencer has already hinted that the "loss leader" model isn't going to work.

Of course, I'm speculating just like everyone else. It will certainly be interesting to see what they come up with.

 

[Badlucktroll]

i am convinced microsoft is going to come out with an xbox branded steamdeck doohickey thingamabobber