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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

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pigeon

Banned
I read a news item earlier saying that Hillary and her pacs are the only ones airing ads in battleground states at the moment. Is this a good or bad thing?

It's happening because Trump has no staff or money, not because he's doing better in the polls and doesn't see the need. Not that he would know if he's doing better in the polls since he has almost no investment in polling.
 

Teggy

Member
Clever. The Democrats blocked the Republican legislation because it would allow them to say that there was no action on gun control at all under their watch. I like it.
Then they would modify their behavior. This guy was staking this bar out for months, I'm sure he's patient.

It modifies the current law.

He could still buy it on Craigslist in a McDonald's parking lot or at a "Gun show" which can be a gun swap for all intent and purposes.

IE, the change really woukdnt have stoped him, since it doesn't bother to close the other likely and easy avenues to purchase an AR14

You can come up with a "but" for pretty much anything. So you do nothing because it's not perfect? Didn't the Murphy bill have lots of these "buts" as well? How does this help? Make some progress.

I guess we shouldn't have passed the ACA either.

And by the way, if this guy had been put on hold for 3 days maybe they would have talked to his wife who would have said she thought he was going to shoot something up. Something he hadn't been planning when they came in contact with him before. The only thing that would satisfy your "buts" would be to stop gun sales altogether and take all the existing ones off the streets.
 

User1608

Banned
For presenting himself as such a strong man and belittling those around him, gotta love how much weaker Trump is as a candidate compared to McCain and Romney.
 
The dissent is strong in this one. Yes, feel your hatred. Let it grow and make you more powerful.

You can come up with a "but" for pretty much anything. So you do nothing because it's not perfect?
There are other considerations. There are a few things that would have stopped this spontaneous attack, and those bills don't cover any of them. It is important to deny the Republicans any attempts to claim victory when those bills are useless. They are trying to distract the public.

Didn't the Murphy bill have lots of these "buts" as well?
It didn't.

How does this help? Make some progress.
It helps in a number of ways.

It denies the Republicans empty victories. It helps move public perception to think that the Republicans are blocking everything (since they effectively are). It might affect the Senate race a lot, which is pretty much way more important than getting bills passed now that we can pass with a Democratic Senate. The whole point of this whole voting session was to give the Democrats rhetorical victory, and they had a great night.

I guess we shouldn't have passed the ACA either.
That's not even close to comparable. There was no future of making the ACA stronger. The majority was the best it was going to get.

And by the way, if this guy had been put on hold for 3 days maybe they would have talked to his wife who would have said she thought he was going to shoot something up. Something he hadn't been planning when they came in contact with him before.

And then what? You can't arrest a person on hearsay. They put him in a holding cell, they question him, he says he's a former security guard and loves sport shooting, and then they say "well he's alright in our book".

Then he goes home and beats his wife so hard she never forgets it. This woman was probably afraid for her life. She wasn't going to say anything, and even if she did, it didn't matter. It's his right to own those weapons. We don't surveil every guy with anger issues in this country, so get over your silly fantasy that some superhero FBI agent with a little more insight could have stopped a law abiding member of society from snapping mentally and killing gay people because of _insert_bonkers_reason_.

The guy just should have never owned a gun, period. Because guns are dangerous, he was sick, and he was violent. That's it. That's the only thing.

The only thing that would satisfy your "buts" would be to stop gun sales altogether and take all the existing ones off the streets.
Yes.
 
So, this was totally expected, as far as the gun control bills. I can't say I'm surprised, although I wish I was. I feel like the narrative we get out of it is better than the GOP bills, because it would have stalled future discussion for a while.

I still get so frustrated by this. The vast majority of people want what the Democrats want...yet the NRA has so much power nothing changes. It's insulting to the people that have died in each one of these shootings.

The whole thing is a mess.
 

Teggy

Member
There are other considerations. There are a few things that would have stopped this spontaneous attack, and those bills don't cover any of them. It is important to deny the Republicans any attempts to claim victory when those bills are useless. They are trying to distract the public.

I already explained how it likely could have. from simply giving him second thoughts, to putting him on the run to someone in his orbit speaking out. His wife very likely might have said something because she might see it as a way to get out from under his abuse. Any number of things that have come out in the past week such as what his coworkers have said and how he was turned down from buying body armor would have given probable cause to search deeper into his life and would have interrupted his plans.

This fantasy story of his wife getting beat up and superhuman FBI agents who I made no mention of, and "oh, he would have just waited" is a silly distraction.

It didn't.

Really, the background check will stop him from buying a gun on the black market?

It helps in a number of ways.

It denies the Republicans empty victories. It helps move public perception to think that the Republicans are blocking everything (since they effectively are). It might affect the Senate race a lot, which is pretty much way more important than getting bills passed now that we can pass with a Democratic Senate. The whole point of this whole voting session was to give the Democrats rhetorical victory, and they had a great night.

I understand the purpose, but even if the dems win the presidency, and the senate, it doesn't guarantee them a win on these amendments because they won't have 60 votes. Then what? We sure did make those Repbulicans looks silly der der.

That's not even close to comparable. There was no future of making the ACA stronger. The majority was the best it was going to get.

Really? It's often said they were a Joe Lieberman away from single payer. And they will continue to do things to improve the ACA.
 
The FEC hasn't updated with June Monthlies yet.Not to be a jerk, although really I don't care if I am because whatever. But it's not just at the moment....

You do have like 500+ posts in this thread. That's five superior page length pages of posts in a fifty odd page thread.

It actually makes it hard to follow the thread sometimes.

Although I really only read Kev and pigeon's posts so whatever.

it seems not to be very true then , do not pivot this

I think this gives me the idea of going for 100 per page though...
 

fauxtrot

Banned
I now understand where all of those GIFs Adam posts come from... Hulu autoplayed RuPaul's Drag Race season 4 after I finished the most recent episode of another show I watch, so I figured I'd try it out. Two days later, I'm well into season 5. How have I never watched this before? It is the best thing ever. EVER.
 

DrForester

Kills Photobucket
I read a news item earlier saying that Hillary and her pacs are the only ones airing ads in battleground states at the moment. Is this a good or bad thing?

As someone in Colorado, I can say that it's not a bad thing so long as Clinton doesn't start running non-stop attack ads. So far I've seen one negative Trump ad from a Super Pac. Hillary ads have been about her record and accomplishments.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
As someone in Colorado, I can say that it's not a bad thing so long as Clinton doesn't start running non-stop attack ads. So far I've seen one negative Trump ad from a Super Pac. Hillary ads have been about her record and accomplishments.

That's probably the best use of ads right now.
 
I now understand where all of those GIFs Adam posts come from... Hulu autoplayed RuPaul's Drag Race season 4 after I finished the most recent episode of another show, so I figured I'd try it out. Two days later, I'm well into season 5. How have I never watched this before? It is the best thing ever. EVER.

I've converted another one! One more punch on my gay card and I get 30% off Cher's online store.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
For what it's worth, I'm in Florida, and I haven't seen any of Hillary's ads. Of course, I'm in Broward County, which is the most deeply Democratic county in the state, so they may not be bothering with my market.
 
For what it's worth, I'm in Florida, and I haven't seen any of Hillary's ads. Of course, I'm in Broward County, which is the most deeply Democratic county in the state, so they may not be bothering with my market.

iirc, I don't think the FL ad buy was for there.
 
You have no clue what you're talking about right now. The Democrats voted unanimously against 3 day waiting periods for watch list purchasers.
They didn't vote unanimously for Murphy or Feinstein's amendments though now did they.

Also I can't actually find the individual votes on these cloture motions right now, so I have no idea whether they voted unanimously against Grassley and Cornyn's amendments.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
You have no clue what you're talking about right now. The Democrats voted unanimously against 3 day waiting periods for watch list purchasers.

Isn't that due to 1) one of the senate's annoying procedural quirks/bullshit or 2) there was some poison pill attached to it?
 
You have no clue what you're talking about right now. The Democrats voted unanimously against 3 day waiting periods for watch list purchasers.

I may very well be wrong here, but isn't the 3 day waiting period actually a reduction from a current 2 week waiting period?

I feel like I'm wrong about that, and I hope I am, because it's a kind of insane proposal if that's the case.
 
People here are so reluctant to acknowledge that their party plays politics with gun control.

They didn't vote unanimously for Murphy or Feinstein's amendments though now did they.

Also I can't actually find the individual votes on these cloture motions right now, so I have no idea whether they voted unanimously against Grassley and Cornyn's amendments.
http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/vote_menu_114_2.htm

Isn't that due to 1) one of the senate's annoying procedural quirks/bullshit or 2) there was some poison pill attached to it?
No and no. See below.

I may very well be wrong here, but isn't the 3 day waiting period actually a reduction from a current 2 week waiting period?

I feel like I'm wrong about that, and I hope I am, because it's a kind of insane proposal if that's the case.
Summary from NPR:
NPR said:
[the bill] would require that law enforcement be alerted when anyone on the terrorist watch list attempts to buy a weapon from a licensed dealer. If the buyer has been investigated for terrorism within the past five years, the attorney general could block a sale for up to three days while a court reviews the sale. The government would have to show probable cause that the person is a known or suspected terrorist.
So reasonable! And yet the votes were entirely party line. You're free to read the verbage yourself, but NPR would not summarize it as thus if there was such a pernicious poison pill.
 
I may very well be wrong here, but isn't the 3 day waiting period actually a reduction from a current 2 week waiting period?

I feel like I'm wrong about that, and I hope I am, because it's a kind of insane proposal if that's the case.

Cory Booker was talking about it on MSNBC earlier. I'm working on a project, so I only caught the tail end of it. He was arguing that it was pointless because the bill required probable cause. If they had probable cause, they'd just arrest the person. I also read that it would require the DOJ or the Attorney General to review the information and go to court within that 3 day window

ClZ-kNlXIAETaGK.jpg:large
 
Frankly the three day investigation is a nonstarter. If federal agencies are swamped and can't carry out the investigations in three days, the person gets the gun no matter what. It's so toothless it's hardly worth considering.

I don't blame Democrats for sinking it even if it comes from a place of politicizing the issue.
 
No, it's reluctance to think there's some convoluted game of keikaku, as opposed to Occam's Razor.

Heitkamp voting against party lines on Feinstein's amendment is because she wants to keep an A rating from the NRA. Not some elaborate ploy.

And their inability to get any movement is because they simply don't have the votes. Because on the other side of the aisle there's far more pervasive gun lobby influence.

Conversely you seem reluctant to accept that a group like the NRA holds substantial sway.
 

Teggy

Member
I may very well be wrong here, but isn't the 3 day waiting period actually a reduction from a current 2 week waiting period?

I feel like I'm wrong about that, and I hope I am, because it's a kind of insane proposal if that's the case.

Waiting periods are state law and vary as such. For example, Connecticut has a 2 week waiting period, Alabama has none.

I don't believe this law would affect existing waiting periods because it would only come into play if the person was on a watch list.
 
No, it's reluctance to think there's some convoluted game of keikaku, as opposed to Occam's Razor.

Heitkamp voting against party lines on Feinstein's amendment is because she wants to keep an A rating from the NRA. Not some elaborate ploy.

And their inability to get any movement is because they simply don't have the votes. Because on the other side of the aisle there's far more pervasive gun lobby influence.

Conversely you seem reluctant to accept that a group like the NRA holds substantial sway.

No one in their right mind wouldn't believe the NRA holds a ton of sway in our politics. However, making lemonade out of lemons isn't the worst idea in the world, either. We couldn't have gotten the two decent amendments through. I expect that the three Dems who voted against could have been counted on to to be the 58-59-60th vote if necessary.

However, giving the GOP "victory" on their shitty amendments is an act of politicking. They were completely useless, except to give the GOP a feather in their cap for doing "something" even though this "something" was pointless.
 
No, it's reluctance to think there's some convoluted game of keikaku, as opposed to Occam's Razor.
The former is more fun. What are you, anti-fun?

Heitkamp voting against party lines on Feinstein's amendment is because she wants to keep an A rating from the NRA. Not some elaborate ploy.

And their inability to get any movement is because they simply don't have the votes. Because on the other side of the aisle there's far more pervasive gun lobby influence.
Who are you talking to right now? And what are you drinking? (I'm at a bar right now, just for the record.)

Conversely you seem reluctant to accept that a group like the NRA holds substantial sway.
It does! And yet... The Republicans voted for a bill that would alert local police of an arms purchase by a watchlisted person. So gun, much NRA. The NRA must have been funding the Democrats for 20 minutes.
However, giving the GOP "victory" on their shitty amendments is an act of politicking. They were completely useless, except to give the GOP a feather in their cap for doing "something" even though this "something" was pointless.
Exactly! The unique clairvoyance of Adam and yours truly proves that alcohol clears the mind. Now if you'll all excuse me, I have a pint to finish.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
@realDonaldTrump lent his campaign another $2.2 million in May, bringing his total to $45.7 million thus far.

He raised only $3.1 million

Unreal.
 
I don't even know what your endgame is here. You've previously tried to downplay the influence of the NRA. You're still downplaying it here. And you're pretending that blocking the GOP's shit measures is some sort of grand strategy, when they can't even get the caucus collectively behind their own measures.
 
Hmm, 2:1 ad advantage in spending translates to extra 3 point lead according to some papers I've read today.

Hillary is going to end up around 6:1 so it will be interesting to see the impact. 6 points would be pretty insane...
 
The one thing I think is positive is this is becoming a culture issue. And with declining gun ownership, growth in minorities who are far more supportive of gun control (lets not beat around the bush that a lot or "gun rights" rhetoric is build around fear of non-whites, listen to any NRA speech) its becoming a firm line, are you for lives or the NRA. The dems need these steps to firm up the two sides and when that has happened in the past they tend to win on issue even if it takes forever. We saw this with gay rights

I don't think we're getting a handgun ban or anything but we'll start to see restriction on conceal carry, registrations, assault weapon bans at the state level with eventually getting small reforms nationally

Its gonna be forever and a lot of people are gonna die in the meantime unfortunately.

And I don't see it has some death blow to the dems. Gun owners influence will continue to decline, especially in the dems coalition
 
Donald Trump hasn't been actively trying to raise money for the campaign though right? It's all been about self-funding, so until he pivots to more actively seeking aid....I dunno it is a ridiculously small amount either way lol. I mean the mechanism is there to for people to donate but it's not like he's out there sending Bernie 'help me' emails.
 
Trump raising almost no money in May despite winning the nomination in May and being in California (where rich people live that he could ask for money) in May seems sub-optimal for him.
 
I don't even know what your endgame is here. You've previously tried to downplay the influence of the NRA. You're still downplaying it here. And you're pretending that blocking the GOP's shit measures is some sort of grand strategy, when they can't even get the caucus collectively behind their own measures.
Why did the Democrats vote against the bill, and why did the Republicans vote for it? If not for party politics, why?
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
The one thing I think is positive is this is becoming a culture issue. And with declining gun ownership, growth in minorities who are far more supportive of gun control (lets not beat around the bush that a lot or "gun rights" rhetoric is build around fear of non-whites, listen to any NRA speech) its becoming a firm line, are you for lives or the NRA. The dems need these steps to firm up the two sides and when that has happened in the past they tend to win on issue even if it takes forever. We saw this with gay rights

I don't think we're getting a handgun ban or anything but we'll start to see restriction on conceal carry, registrations, assault weapon bans at the state level with eventually getting small reforms nationally

Its gonna be forever and a lot of people are gonna die in the meantime unfortunately.

And I don't see it has some death blow to the dems. Gun owners influence will continue to decline, especially in the dems coalition

We can see Heller overturned in the next 4 years if we're lucky, which means individual cities can institute handgun bans again.
 
Trump raising almost no money in May despite winning the nomination in May and being in California (where rich people live that he could ask for money) in May seems sub-optimal for him.

Sub optimal is barely raising enough money to fund a handful of must win swing states

Sub optimal is not raising only 3 million, that is the literal definition of a disaster
 
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