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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

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Steve Lonegan on MSNBC flat out saying that Trump won't be the nominee to come out of the convention.

That, combined with the fundraiser numbers....

There has to be some internal arguments about what to do. They aren't THAT stupid. I legitimately can't believe he has less COH than some rando person running for Congress.
 
Senate's projected at 50-50 right now? :O
Dems have polling leads in FL, NH, IL and WI for R-held seats. I think they might be trailing a little in NV which is D-held and likely the only competitive D-held seat.

However there have also been a couple polls of AZ showing McCain losing. Other than that, PA, OH, MO, NC and IA (probably in that order, maybe switch MO and NC) should be competitive.
 

Wilsongt

Member
So I highly doubt any gun reform is ever going to happen. IF children being mowed down in school and the deadliest mass shooting in history can;t get any reform going, then no other form of mass shooting is going to help.
 
I know most candidates get a "Convention Bump" in the polls after being officially nominated, but has any one actually dipped? If the RNC is a real clusterfuck could Trump go even lower?
 

Iolo

Member
Not only does Trump only have $1.2 million on hand, he loaned his campaign $46 million over the course of the primaries, and still owes himself that $46 million. He spent over $62 million to get through the primaries!

And he's apparently paying himself a salary (?!)
 

royalan

Member
There has to be some internal arguments about what to do. They aren't THAT stupid. I legitimately can't believe he has less COH than some rando person running for Congress.

My thinking after tonight is...there's a good chance that Trump has pulled a Bernie and blown all of his leverage.

He's raised no money worth speaking about. He's run no ads. He's set up no national campaign infrastructure that he could hold over the RNC's head as leverage. He's potential poison to the GOP downticket. He has nothing.

What do the RNC lose at this point by ousting him? Sure, they piss off his supporters, but at this point Trump has become so toxic that the wrath of his supporters for kicking him to the curb might pale in comparison to the wrath of the general electorate if they ride with him into November. That wrath could follow them beyond this election year if they allow Trump to define their party. That wrath could be the end of the Republican Party as it is known.

I'm starting to think it's more likely than not that the RNC boots him.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I now place the odds of RNC dumping Trump at 5%. Slowly rising by the day.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Not only does Trump only have $1.2 million on hand, he loaned his campaign $46 million over the course of the primaries, and still owes himself that $46 million. He spent over $62 million to get through the primaries!

And he's apparently paying himself a salary (?!)

He's totally just laundering money isn't he?
 

Iolo

Member
Weigel said Sanders raised $16.4 million on May but I can't find a source or documentation for cash on hand.

He's totally just laundering money isn't he?

It follows Trump's pattern to a T—move money around in shady ways, reclassify his debts... but normally he uses other people's money. How does he recover the money he loaned himself this time?
 
I said this in the thread about the news, but I'll say it here - if this happened in the RP politics game I played for years, the leaders of the party would go to the Admins and ask for a replacement since it's obviously "unrealistic" for the nominee to do zero fundraising and the Admin's would probably say, yeah, since they were interested in both parties having a chance at winning.
 

shem935

Banned
Those Trump #'s are incredible. That more than anything is what might be pushing the GOP to dump him I think. Still think it is pretty unlikely.

I said this in the thread about the news, but I'll say it here - if this happened in the RP politics game I played for years, the leaders of the party would go to the Admins and ask for a replacement since it's obviously "unrealistic" for the nominee to do zero fundraising and the Admin's would probably say, yeah, since they were interested in both parties having a chance at winning.

I read in another thread he could make his campaign public and receive 100 mill from taxpayer money? That might be the ripcord they pull if it gets critical. Not sure what limitations that caries with it though.
 

Rebel Leader

THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
saw this in Off-topic:

https://twitter.com/derekwillis/status/745082013321990145
FnhBvBv.png


ClcQJJfWQAA_kon.jpg
 
My thinking after tonight is...there's a good chance that Trump has pulled a Bernie and blown all of his leverage.

He's raised no money worth speaking about. He's run no ads. He's set up no national campaign infrastructure that he could hold over the RNC's head as leverage. He's potential poison to the GOP downticket. He has nothing.

What do the RNC lose at this point by ousting him? Sure, they piss off his supporters, but at this point Trump has become so toxic that the wrath of his supporters for kicking him to the curb might pale in comparison to the wrath of the general electorate if they ride with him into November. That wrath could follow them beyond this election year if they allow Trump to define their party. That wrath could be the end of the Republican Party as it is known.

I'm starting to think it's more likely than not that the RNC boots him.

It's absolutely insane.

ClcQJJfWQAA_kon.jpg:large


Look at his expenditures! LOOK AT THEM. He's paying himself to pay himself. This is a money making operation that, like everything he touches, is failing to make money.

From the FEC fillings here. he raised 16 millions, spent ~12 millions. Started June with 9 millions on hand.

http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00577130/1079424/

He's probably super broke now. On the 15th of June they filed a bunch of reports about how much money they had to return. There were no totals given, but I'm guessing he doesn't have anywhere near $9 million COH now.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
The conventions are too far away. We need Trump locked in.

In short, even if Trump raises another $50 million in short order, who's to say he doesn't use it to pay his $46 million loan back?
Is there even any doubt? He's already doing his best to funnel at least part of his campaign spending right back into his businesses.
 

Iolo

Member
He's probably super broke now. On the 15th of June they filed a bunch of reports about how much money they had to return. There were no totals given, but I'm guessing he doesn't have anywhere near $9 million COH now.

That's an interesting point. He did refund a cool $1 million in May alone, according to the 3P.

I know it's practically off topic at this point, but it's sad that Bernie's campaign spent a whopping $213 million just to lose.
 
It's absolutely insane.

ClcQJJfWQAA_kon.jpg:large


Look at his expenditures! LOOK AT THEM. He's paying himself to pay himself. This is a money making operation that, like everything he touches, is failing to make money.



He's probably super broke now. On the 15th of June they filed a bunch of reports about how much money they had to return. There were no totals given, but I'm guessing he doesn't have anywhere near $9 million COH now.

$1.3 million cash on hand.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...aign-strategy-polls-nra-clinton-election-2016
 
The overwhelming likely choice if the GOP goes for a coup is Cruz since he controls the loyalty of the delegates.

The "steal the nomination from Trump and give it to Scott Walker" delusion that Republicans want to pretend is going to happen is not going to happen and they'll never burn Cleveland to the ground and endanger their lives just to give Ted Cruz control of their party.
 

shem935

Banned
That's an interesting point. He did refund a cool $1 million in May alone, according to the 3P.

I know it's practically off topic at this point, but it's sad that Bernie's campaign spent a whopping $213 million just to lose.

How much did Hillary spend? Was that 117 million in the other thread accurate?
 
The thing is that his businesses will all take massive hits going forward because no one wants to be associated with that mess especially when he loses. If this was all a long con to make money he has done a terrible job

Edit: What a waste of 200 million for Bernie
 

royalan

Member
Hello Reince,

I'm calling in that favor. You fucking piece of shit, Trump must make it to the convention. I don't care how it is done.

You know what I will do if you fail.

--H


5wTzsA7.jpg
 

danm999

Member
Giving the nom to Cruz would be a disaster. It would vindicate every perception of him as a sleazy cheat that nobody likes.
 
So, looking at Bernie's:

His campaign filed 5 reports in May with the FEC refunding the over donations. Looks like it was around $1,084,634.45 they refunded. One of the reports was the request the FEC sent them to explain their charges for flights and shit.

They filed 7 reports with the FEC in June refunding money, including one that is 15 pages of illegal donations from non-citizens. *And they said these will reflect on the June numbers.*

That, plus his California adventure...he ain't got $9 million in the bank.
 
It's absolutely insane.

ClcQJJfWQAA_kon.jpg:large


Look at his expenditures! LOOK AT THEM. He's paying himself to pay himself. This is a money making operation that, like everything he touches, is failing to make money.



He's probably super broke now. On the 15th of June they filed a bunch of reports about how much money they had to return. There were no totals given, but I'm guessing he doesn't have anywhere near $9 million COH now.
Wait I must be dumb but how is this not laundering? Money goes out, money goes in.
 

Teggy

Member
All this news is great for my candidate, but on the other hand it just highlights how screwed up our political system is. In order to get my preferred candidate elected, I don't just have to vote for them, I need to reach into my pockets and give them as much money as I can. There's just something really perverse about that.
 

pigeon

Banned
My thinking after tonight is...there's a good chance that Trump has pulled a Bernie and blown all of his leverage.

He's raised no money worth speaking about. He's run no ads. He's set up no national campaign infrastructure that he could hold over the RNC's head as leverage. He's potential poison to the GOP downticket. He has nothing.

What do the RNC lose at this point by ousting him? Sure, they piss off his supporters, but at this point Trump has become so toxic that the wrath of his supporters for kicking him to the curb might pale in comparison to the wrath of the general electorate if they ride with him into November. That wrath could follow them beyond this election year if they allow Trump to define their party. That wrath could be the end of the Republican Party as it is known.

I'm starting to think it's more likely than not that the RNC boots him.

He has a majority of pledged delegates acquired through a democratic process.

I definitely think there's a real chance the RNC tries to ditch Donald Trump. They are sending all the signals that they want to do it. I just still doubt that they effectively can.

As far as anybody can tell right now, if they actually unbound all the delegates (ignoring for the moment that many delegates are bound by state laws as well as convention rules, although those laws have never been tested), Donald Trump would still receive a plurality of votes for nomination because, although there is a majority against him, it can't choose a candidate.

Keep in mind, also, that the nomination process typically happens on prime-time television in front of the entire country. The entire discussion about Bernie dropping out is to avoid the kind of embarrassing roll-call vote that is guaranteed to happen in the BEST CASE for Donald Trump. The worst case is an endless, rolling series of hung votes, each of which Donald Trump leads in.
 

Teggy

Member
Wait I must be dumb but how is this not laundering? Money goes out, money goes in.

Laundering assumes that the money going in is dirty. All he's doing is giving preferential treatment to his own businesses as vendors. It's kind of stupid looking, but I don't think there's anything illegal about it.
 

ampere

Member
But what's going on inside that campaign? If the Trump kids were supposedly pissed at Lewandowski for doing nothing, and Trump shocked that Lewandowski had no plan, and Priebus is complaining and everyone is noticing that no money is being raised, what have they doing all day up until now? Trump isn't the only guy there but is he literally shooting down any idea that involves raising money? It's completely baffling.

Is Ivanka trying to ninja-sabotage the campaign to prevent her father from taking power? I have to know what is going through her head, she must be so conflicted.

So I highly doubt any gun reform is ever going to happen. IF children being mowed down in school and the deadliest mass shooting in history can;t get any reform going, then no other form of mass shooting is going to help.

Until we strike down gerrymandering and get the House back... probably not. But we have to keep trying. People WANT gun reform, we just need non-scumbag politicians.
 

mo60

Member
Trump's campaign is a disaster of epic proportions.The way the Canadian conservatives ran their election campaign was awful but this is on another level.Trump's even profitting off of his own campaign. Wow. And people say he will crush Hilary when it looks like he will be the one that gets crushed at this point
 
Hillary Clinton's search for a running mate is moving into a more intense phase, according to several Democrats, as aides contact a pared-down pool of candidates to ask for reams of personal information and set up interviews with the presumptive Democratic nominee's vetting team.

Those on the shortlist include Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a favorite of progressives who has emerged as a blistering critic of presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump; Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, a well-liked lawmaker from an important general election battleground state; and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro of Texas, a rising star in the Democratic Party.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation-world/ct-hillary-clinton-running-mate-20160620-story.html

Castro would be a terrible president and Kaine is super boring, booo.

He has a majority of pledged delegates acquired through a democratic process.

I definitely think there's a real chance the RNC tries to ditch Donald Trump. They are sending all the signals that they want to do it. I just still doubt that they effectively can.

As far as anybody can tell right now, if they actually unbound all the delegates (ignoring for the moment that many delegates are bound by state laws as well as convention rules, although those laws have never been tested), Donald Trump would still receive a plurality of votes for nomination because, although there is a majority against him, it can't choose a candidate.

Keep in mind, also, that the nomination process typically happens on prime-time television in front of the entire country. The entire discussion about Bernie dropping out is to avoid the kind of embarrassing roll-call vote that is guaranteed to happen in the BEST CASE for Donald Trump. The worst case is an endless, rolling series of hung votes, each of which Donald Trump leads in.

Ted Cruz winning on the 9th ballot after Reince goes to the hospital with alcohol poisoning and Tom Brady spends time talking about white genocide will really endear the party to the public though.
 

Teggy

Member
Is Ivanka trying to ninja-sabotage the campaign to prevent her father from taking power? I have to know what is going through her head, she must be so conflicted.

To be released in December: "Agent Ivanka: How I Saved America From Inside The Trump Campaign." The international best seller.
 
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