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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

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Tarydax

Banned
I so hope Trump doesn't fizzle out or get replaced before the convention. His name needs to be connected to the Republican party for a decade at least.
 
That's the standard gen elex grant for each nominee, funded by the Presidential Election Campaign Fund. Obama was the first nominee not to use it, in 2008. Romney followed suit in 2012. So it is not unusual historically, but you can raise far more money privately.

Note that Trump could not raise any private money if he takes public funding.

edit: also that only leaves 50 million after he pays back his loan ;)
You know, for some reason I thought public funding was like a "spend as much as you want on travel and rallies" kind of deal.

Anyway, $90 mil is nothing, Adam is nuts. ...well, I remember a couple of weeks ago those off the record staffers being irritdted that Trump wasted the entire month of May. And he's wasting this month, too.

Could the implosion really happen? Could trump really be denied the nomination?
 

SmokeMaxX

Member
That's the standard gen elex grant for each nominee, funded by the Presidential Election Campaign Fund. Obama was the first nominee not to use it, in 2008. Romney followed suit in 2012. So it is not unusual historically, but you can raise far more money privately.

Note that Trump could not raise any private money if he takes public funding.

edit: also that only leaves 50 million after he pays back his loan ;)
He can't get this until after the convention right? What are the qualifications for this? You have to be a Democrat or republican?
 
What's this about?

Trump's campaign has no money on hand and isn't raising any money and Trump isn't actually a billionaire so his campaign's finances are a catastrophe. Thus, Twitter users have been making fun of a man worth TEN BILLION DOLLARS who bases his entire life off of having money for being in such financial difficulties. For the Twitter hashtag, people mention things that Trump has to do for money at this point because he's in such bad shape economically.

Twitter Communists took these jokes as poor shaming because it's not outrage culture if it's 12 degrees or less away from the white working class.
 

Valhelm

contribute something
Trump's campaign has no money on hand and isn't raising any money and Trump isn't actually a billionaire so his campaign's finances are a catastrophe. Thus, Twitter users have been making fun of a man worth TEN BILLION DOLLARS who bases his entire life off of having money for being in such financial difficulties. For the Twitter hashtag, people mention things that Trump has to do for money at this point because he's in such bad shape economically.

Twitter Communists took these jokes as poor shaming because it's not outrage culture if it's 12 degrees or less away from the white working class.

I was referring to the black invalidation.
 
What's this about?

Vice reporter gets mad at people saying Ralph "Obama is an Uncle Tom" Nader is a racist.

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/739972802552430592

(Ralph Nader's "point" was that anti-black "jokebooks" helped diffuse the tension of the white working class).

Marxists pick up the NeoNazi term "identitarian" that literally no one other than anime avatars with Trump hats on Twitter uses to talk about stuff.

Ck8l-PjUoAARWJC.jpg


Editor of leading Marxist magazine refuses to believe people in West Virginia are racist and ignores that 95% of Democrat loses from the white working class in the last 50 years came from the Deep South.

https://twitter.com/ckilpatrick/status/742794196059336705
 

Valhelm

contribute something
Vice reporter gets mad at people saying Ralph "Obama is an Uncle Tom" Nader is a racist.

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/739972802552430592

(Ralph Nader's "point" was that anti-black "jokebooks" helped diffuse the tension of the white working class).

Marxists pick up the NeoNazi term "identitarian" that literally no one other than anime avatars with Trump hats on Twitter uses to talk about stuff.

Ck8l-PjUoAARWJC.jpg


Editor of leading Marxist magazine refuses to believe people in West Virginia are racist and ignores that 95% of Democrat loses from the white working class in the last 50 years came from the Deep South.

https://twitter.com/ckilpatrick/status/742794196059336705

Many working class whites are racist, but that doesn't mean the people aren't suffering. Just as we should address what drives so many young Muslims to Islamism, we should address what drives so many poor whites to white supremacy, and find bottom-up solutions to change this.

The white working class is massive and not going anywhere any time soon. As incomes fail to rise, it could potentially grow. Maligning all poor whites as racists beyond salvation isn't a good idea.
 

Vahagn

Member
Many working class whites are racist, but that doesn't mean the people aren't suffering. Just as we should address what drives so many young Muslims to Islamism, we should address what drives so many poor whites to white supremacy, and find bottom-up solutions to change this.

The white working class is massive and not going anywhere any time soon. As incomes fail to rise, it could potentially grow. Maligning all poor whites as racists beyond salvation isn't a good idea.

Along came a white Neo-Nazi overtly racist, sexist, scummy piece of shit who was otherwise to the left of pretty much everyone on that stage of 17 people on everything EXCEPT for white supremacy and the white working class "non-racist" people you talk of flocked to him.

No, Trump showed, above all else, that the only reason those scumbags have been voting Republican for decades is purely due to racial animosity. They don't give two shits what the tax rate is for rich people, where regulations are or aren't, what the line items in the budget are, or what 95% of conservative orthodoxy is.

He came out and said Mexicans are rapists and we need a wall and he jumped to 1st place. Ben Carson came out and said he wouldn't trust a Muslim of any kind as the POTUS and jumped to second place.

White working class people are racist and sexist and shitty because they've convinced themselves that their rightful economic prosperity which is their American right has been stolen by immigrants ,and women, and black people, and China.

They're scum. That's it.
 

pigeon

Banned
Along came a white Neo-Nazi overtly racist, sexist, scummy piece of shit who was otherwise to the left of pretty much everyone on that stage of 17 people on everything EXCEPT for white supremacy and the white working class "non-racist" people you talk of flocked to him.

No, Trump showed, above all else, that the only reason those scumbags have been voting Republican for decades is purely due to racial animosity. They don't give two shits what the tax rate is for rich people, where regulations are or aren't, what the line items in the budget are, or what 95% of conservative orthodoxy is.

He came out and said Mexicans are rapists and we need a wall and he jumped to 1st place. Ben Carson came out and said he wouldn't trust a Muslim of any kind as the POTUS and jumped to second place.

White working class people are racist and sexist and shitty because they've convinced themselves that their rightful economic prosperity which is their American right has been stolen by immigrants ,and women, and black people, and China.

They're scum. That's it.

There's an important distinction to draw here between the Southern strategy white vote, which is racist, and the large groups of white working people in Appalachia, Rust Belt, etc. who mostly don't vote at all any more and are economically disaffected. They as two different groups.

I'm not saying that a lot of the GOP isn't racist because clearly like 30% of America is willing to vote for Trump, but there are other people.
 

johnsmith

remember me
Trump's campaign is in shambles, why the hell is he going to Scotland?

151210113321-donald-trump-golf-course-scotland-780x439.jpg


It's a grand opening of a golf course. He'll try to sell it as a foreign trip to beef up his foreign policy credentials or something, try to get a meeting with the scottish first minister but she said she wouldn't. The US media is going to rake him over the coals though. So will the British media for that matter.
 
There's an important distinction to draw here between the Southern strategy white vote, which is racist, and the large groups of white working people in Appalachia, Rust Belt, etc. who mostly don't vote at all any more and are economically disaffected. They as two different groups.

I'm not saying that a lot of the GOP isn't racist because clearly like 30% of America is willing to vote for Trump, but there are other people.
The last time I said exactly this, that there are reasons to vote for Trump that aren't racist, everyone (including you!) jumped down my throat for being a racist sympathizer!
 

olympia

Member
Can someone speak to the accuracy of this graphic?

new-news-podcasts-2x2-033016.jpg

I listen to NPR (including atc), pbs newshour, bbc world service and pri's the world every single day and i can say that the placement here is pretty accurate, the world includes significant commentary and is more longform than the others

The last time I said exactly this, that there are reasons to vote for Trump that aren't racist, everyone (including you!) jumped down my throat for being a racist sympathizer!

voting for him while looking the other way and willfully ignoring his racist platform isn't the best look either though
 

pigeon

Banned
The last time I said exactly this, that there are reasons to vote for Trump that aren't racist, everyone (including you!) jumped down my throat for being a racist sympathizer!

I specifically didn't say you could vote for Trump without being a racist. I said that I think you could have a long-term pattern of not voting without being a racist!

Also, to be clear, I don't think you're racist outside the standard deviation. I agree that not all Republicans are necessarily racist. Trump is a different animal.
 

pigeon

Banned
One fun point from Josh Marshall's blog post about Trump finances is that Trump isn't just broke, he's underwater, and that's specifically problematic for fundraising.

If Sheldon Adelson writes a $100 million check, for example, he knows that the first half of that check will immediately be earmarked to pay off Donald Trump's loan to his own campaign.

Basically, Trump is now offering a bunch of GOP donors the opportunity to retroactively pay for the primary campaign that permanently destroyed their favored candidates. Only once that's paid off will they actually be contributing to the general election that they will inevitably lose.

So you can see why they're a little hesitant.
 
One fun point from Josh Marshall's blog post about Trump finances is that Trump isn't just broke, he's underwater, and that's specifically problematic for fundraising.

If Sheldon Adelson writes a $100 million check, for example, he knows that the first half of that check will immediately be earmarked to pay off Donald Trump's loan to his own campaign.

Basically, Trump is now offering a bunch of GOP donors the opportunity to retroactively pay for the primary campaign that permanently destroyed their favored candidates. Only once that's paid off will they actually be contributing to the general election that they will inevitably lose.

So you can see why they're a little hesitant.
So what did Trump expect when he said he wanted to fuel his campaign with his own cash? Doesn't that mean he's rich enough to ride out a dent in his finances? I dont see why he wants to fill that hole unless he really isn't that rich to begin with.
 
This oh maybe he's not rich thing is dumb. The Clintons could donate like 50 million to HRC's campaign too. Romney could have self funded hundreds of millions. And so can Trump.

That doesn't mean they would.

A lot of Trump's net worth is from memory his intangible brand asset. But that doesn't mean he doesn't have substantial tangible and/or liquid assets.

He's still a Trumpster fire.

Pigeon is also right in that the way Trump has structured his self funding as loans is going to scare off would be donors.
 

thebloo

Member
#TrumpSoPoor he's being targeted by Trump University as a potential student.
#TrumpSoPoor his next trophy wife will be from Mexico.
#TrumpSoPoor he has listed @GovChristie on @eBay.

These are great.
 
Replacing Trump is a better idea than nominating Trump IMO but the result will still be a huge loss. Disenfranchising millions of republican voters isn't fair and would likely cause many of them to stay home in November. Still I think that's better than nominating a bigoted racist who democrats can paint republicans with for years to come.

But then again the Trump damage is likely already done. If you're a ten year old Hispanic boy or girl your view of the Republican Party is likely going to be very negative due to Trump; and in eight years when that kid is eligible to vote they'll likely still view the party through the lens of Trump. He isn't going to be forgotten by history. "The party of Donald Trump" strikes me as an effective talking point that can be used for a long time.
 

Pixieking

Banned
"The party of Donald Trump" strikes me as an effective talking point that can be used for a long time.

Considering "the party of Lincoln" is still used as a descriptor for the Republican party when the writer wants to contrast present day with historical, "the party of Trump" will have legs for a long long time.

I can see the worry with the delegates staging a coups and denying Trump the nomination. As it stands now, there couldn't be clearer water between Clinton and Trump, Democrats and the GOP. Even with down-ticket Republicans keeping Trump's racist views at arm's length, the Dems can still paint a broad picture that essentially says the choice is black-and-white. But if Trump isn't the nominee, it becomes harder to paint that picture... Not impossible, certainly, just harder than it would be against Trump.
 
I'm not sure what there is to Diablos over. There's absolutely zero chance they win the White House if they do that.

I feel that with Trump at the helm, this election could be amazing for democrats, both Hillary and downballot. The GOP might reign Trump in a little, tightening the race somewhat from where it is now (but who knows the debates might implode Trump even more), but the man is absolutely toxic.

If the GOP somehow manages to oust Trump and go for a "moderate" and "respectable" republican, don't be surprised how a lot of people will flock to that candidate. First, Hillary has high unfavorables so it's not with much enthusiasm a lot of people would vote for her. Second, people prefer a blank slate unknown "generic politician" almost always to an established one. Third, the later in the game, the less time there is to create a negative narrative or picture of that "last-minute" republican nominee. Considering all that, I could see the race thightening again. The only thing that might prove me wrong, is if the Trump supporters are so mad they won't vote for anyone else besides Trump, going against the "republicans fall in line" thing.
 

Grexeno

Member
I feel that with Trump at the helm, this election could be amazing for democrats, both Hillary and downballot. The GOP might reign Trump in a little, tightening the race somewhat from where it is now (but who knows the debates might implode Trump even more), but the man is absolutely toxic.

If the GOP somehow manages to oust Trump and go for a "moderate" and "respectable" republican, don't be surprised how a lot of people will flock to that candidate. First, Hillary has high unfavorables so it's not with much enthusiasm a lot of people would vote for her. Second, people prefer a blank slate unknown "generic politician" almost always to an established one. Third, the later in the game, the less time there is to create a negative narrative or picture of that "last-minute" republican nominee. Considering all that, I could see the race thightening again. The only thing that might prove me wrong, is if the Trump supporters are so mad they won't vote for anyone else besides Trump, going against the "republicans fall in line" thing.
A lot of this assumes that Trump will take this lying down.
 
#TrumpSoPoor has been tons of fun tonight.

Here's one PoliGAF can relate to!
https://twitter.com/krodNM/status/745125884135251968
#TrumpSoPoor that his campaign has been downgraded from dumpster fire to trash can fire

Unfortunately this will have to be in contrast to the destruction of the GOP, which is going to need escalating tiers of fires. "Abandoned Detroit house arson fire that will get a 2 hour 911 dispatch response time"? We need some kind of upgrade after yesterday. Edit: lol, Google image search for that exact phrase
 

Someone relatively unknown, making it difficult in such a short timeframe to accurately show how that man is also a douchebag like most all other republican politicians. Or someone who is relatively good at hiding his true agenda behind a "kind and moderate" facade, like Kasich.
 
Swing-state polls: Trump slipping in Florida, Ohio

...

Clinton leads Trump by eight points in Florida, 47 percent to 39 percent, up seven points overall from May when she was clinging to a 43 percent-to-42 percent advantage. Trump's advantage among Florida men dropped 9 points over the last month, from a 13-point lead to just four points, 45 percent to 41 percent in June. Among women in Florida, Clinton's advantage grew by 5 points, from 48 percent to 35 percent last month to 52 percent to 34 percent in the post recent survey. White voters support Trump over Clinton 51 percent to 36 percent, while non-white voters backed Clinton 72 percent to 8 percent.

In Ohio, Clinton and Trump are knotted at 40 percent each, after the presumptive Republican nominee led by 4 points (43 percent to 39 percent) last month. Trump's 17-point lead among men in May is virtually the same this time, at 15 points. Among white voters, Trump leads 46 percent to 32 percent, but among non-whites, Clinton leads by 70 points, 78 percent to 8 percent.

The race changed little from the last month in Pennsylvania, with Clinton up 42 percent to 41 percent, comparable to the same results from May (43 percent to 42 percent in favor of Clinton). While Clinton leads 50 percent to 34 percent among women, Trump leads 50 percent to 33 percent among men. Among white voters, Trump leads 47 percent to 38 percent, while Clinton leads among non-whites 66 percent to 15 percent...
 

thebloo

Member
Someone relatively unknown, making it difficult in such a short timeframe to accurately show how that man is also a douchebag like most all other republican politicians. Or someone who is relatively good at hiding his true agenda behind a "kind and moderate" facade, like Kasich.

This is the basic definition of diablosing. An unknown will not turn out the vote and would have a worst short term effect than simply going with Trump. Also, Kasich is a joke.
 

Diablos

Member
There is no way the GOP will continue to stand for Trump's train wreck of a campaign which basically has no ground game and no money. It's totally possible that they will try to oust him at the convention.
 
There is no way the GOP will continue to stand for Trump's train wreck of a campaign which basically has no ground game and no money. It's totally possible that they will try to oust him at the convention.

The RNC is less than a month away. If anything, the GOP has demonstrated that they don't have the organizational mettle to pull anything off. They won't have any kind of consensus by then.
 

Diablos

Member
The RNC is less than a month away. If anything, the GOP has demonstrated that they don't have the organizational mettle to pull anything off. They won't have any kind of consensus by then.
It's not a hard thing to do. Vote against Trump on the first ballot, vote for RMoney or Kasich instead. Easy. The fallout might be bad but they may also figure they are fucked with Trump anyway and will have to take the risk.
 
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