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[Y2Kev]

If you use public funding, can you raise money privately?

Also I hate how polls put (+X%) next to the winner. Like I can do the math. I want to see variance from the last poll.

Wtf, Johnson and Stein getting way too much support.

They won't. Do not be afraid. Jill Stein is just being picked by delusional/disillusioned Bernie fans at this point. No one will actually vote for her.

 

[Y2Kev]

"The Trump campaign raised less money in May than Veronica Mars movie Kickstarter"

lololo

 

[nature boy]

Also I hate how polls put (+X%) next to the winner. Like I can do the math. I want to see variance from the last poll.

Their last poll ended May 1st:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/06/21/rel7b.-.2016.general.pdf

Donald J. TrumpVerified account
‏@realDonaldTrump
Crooked Hillary Clinton is totally unfit to be our president-really bad judgement and a temperament, according to new book, which is a mess!

Hum? The book is a mess?

 

[shinra-bansho]

Bernie or bust whoever isn't that harpy witch shill eating crackers.

 

[Y2Kev]

Their last poll ended May 1st:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/06/21/rel7b.-.2016.general.pdf





Hum? The book is a mess?

Lol, Clinton is dropping and Trump is flat basically. Bernistas!

 

[teruterubozu]

It's not a hard thing to do. Vote against Trump on the first ballot, vote for RMoney or Kasich instead. Easy. The fallout might be bad but they may also figure they are fucked with Trump anyway and will have to take the risk.

They need someone to rally around. If they do it haphazardly like that then the entire party will cave. I just don't see Romney or Kasich as strong alternatives. You'd think the GOP and voters would be begging Romney, like Dems did with Joe Biden, if they were so inclined. Fact is there's no inclination for anybody, no consensus, no nothing.

 

[Y2Kev]

It's not a hard thing to do. Vote against Trump on the first ballot, vote for RMoney or Kasich instead. Easy. The fallout might be bad but they may also figure they are fucked with Trump anyway and will have to take the risk.

Shrimp Fra Diablos, most of those delegates are bound (often legally) on the first ballot.

 

[avaya]

Swing-state polls: Trump slipping in Florida, Ohio

Hahahahahaha at that Florida poll. Holy shit.

 

[nature boy]

Lol, Clinton is dropping and Trump is flat basically. Bernistas!

Sandernistas are coming home (6 to 1).

Hahahahahaha at that Florida poll. Holy shit.

Yeah he needs Florida to have a viable path to 270.

But I'm still amazed at how close he is in Ohio and PA.

 

[thebloo]

They need someone to rally around. If they do it haphazardly like that then the entire party will cave. I just don't see Romney or Kasich as strong alternatives. You'd think the GOP and voters would be begging Romney, like Dems did with Joe Biden, if they were so inclined. Fact is there's no inclination for anybody, no consensus, no nothing.

Yup. The most "votable" person in that party is Trump. The party of Trump. Glorious.

 

[Diablos]

They won't. Do not be afraid. Jill Stein is just being picked by delusional/disillusioned Bernie fans at this point. No one will actually vote for her.

Bernie still needs to start pushing for party unity. Don't let too many people get comfy with voting third party.

 

[nature boy]

Hilldawg to give an economic speech (and bashing Trump) at 11:30 am.

 

[Y2Kev]

Hilldawg to give an economic speech (and bashing Trump) at 11:30 am.

I will listen and hope it's as devastating as the last one!

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Why is Trump making payments to a fictional ad company?

 

[Gruco]

This oh maybe he's not rich thing is dumb. The Clintons could donate like 50 million to HRC's campaign too. Romney could have self funded hundreds of millions. And so can Trump.

That doesn't mean they would.

A lot of Trump's net worth is from memory his intangible brand asset. But that doesn't mean he doesn't have substantial tangible and/or liquid assets.

He's still a Trumpster fire.

Pigeon is also right in that the way Trump has structured his self funding as loans is going to scare off would be donors.

So, I think it's great because its something to get under his skin, antagonize him about his tax returns, and regardless of his personal wealth is very clearly true for his campaign finances. Clinton and Romney didn't need to self fund because they were effective fundraisers. Trump is getting killed on the air, has no staff, and is a complete disaster. At what point does an extremely wealthy person who is in visual range the presidency just pony up? Meg Whitman is worth 2.1 B and spent 150 mil for a more uphill fight for governor.

I 100% agree that Trump's campaign debt is screwing his fundraising, but it's also more than that. He's too proud to call rich donors and ask for money (also most rich donors probably already hate him). Reince gave him a list of 20 odd donors and he was going to make calls. He got through 3 before quitting. I am sure that all his talk in the primary about being self funding and independent and luxuriously super rich can't be a great starter for micro funding.

So the interesting part isn't that Trump supposedly has the money and refuses to fund. The interesting part is that he supposedly has the money, his campaign is dying, he publicly bragged about self funding, he has no other remotely realistic options for the money, and he still refuses to do it.

 

[User 463088]

So, what in the hell does the GOP actually do?

On one hand, they have a candidate that no one likes. He has no money. He has no campaign to speak of. Even if he could afford to hire people, no one wants to work on his campaign. He has no support in the Senate. No support in the House. No one wants to raise money for him. He seems to be unable or unwilling to raise money. He's down 7 points, and losing ground. He is loathed by non-white voters and women are turned off by him in every sense of the word. Do you just accept all of this and go with it, praying for a miracle?

Or

Do you disenfranchise millions of your own voters and steal it from him? Put up someone who isn't completely loathed, and who can at least rake in enough money to run a semblance of an actual campaign. Seriously, what in the hell do they do with this?

 

[HylianTom]

So, what in the hell does the GOP actually do?

On one hand, they have a candidate that no one likes. He has no money. He has no campaign to speak of. Even if he could afford to hire people, no one wants to work on his campaign. He has no support in the Senate. No support in the House. No one wants to raise money for him. He seems to be unable or unwilling to raise money. He's down 7 points, and losing ground. He is loathed by non-white voters and women are turned off by him in every sense of the word. Do you just accept all of this and go with it, praying for a miracle?

Or

Do you disenfranchise millions of your own voters and steal it from him? Put up someone who isn't completely loathed, and who can at least rake in enough money to run a semblance of an actual campaign. Seriously, what in the hell do they do with this?

There is no painless escape for them. We passed the windmill a few months ago.

I'd ditch Trump and take my medicine now.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

I do not like those 3rd party candidates polling so high.

 

[User 463088]

There is no painless escape for them. We passed the windmill a few months ago.

I'd ditch Trump and take my medicine now.

I agree...but they have to be damn sure they can successfully oust him. Can you imagine them trying to rip it away from him but failing. I think that has to play a part in it. I'm not sure the RNC has control of the delegates at this point. They have to go in with one person to offer in opposition to Trump. They can't allow two or three people to get their name into contention.

God, what a mess.

 

[IggyChooChoo]

So, what in the hell does the GOP actually do?

On one hand, they have a candidate that no one likes. He has no money. He has no campaign to speak of. Even if he could afford to hire people, no one wants to work on his campaign. He has no support in the Senate. No support in the House. No one wants to raise money for him. He seems to be unable or unwilling to raise money. He's down 7 points, and losing ground. He is loathed by non-white voters and women are turned off by him in every sense of the word. Do you just accept all of this and go with it, praying for a miracle?

Or

Do you disenfranchise millions of your own voters and steal it from him? Put up someone who isn't completely loathed, and who can at least rake in enough money to run a semblance of an actual campaign. Seriously, what in the hell do they do with this?

Even if you buy that the GOP could improve their situation by dumping Trump, we just lived through a year-long demonstration of their manifest inability to effectively coalesce around a viable Trump alternative. I highly doubt that the Dump Trump coup plotters can even agree on who should replace him. Plus that replacement would have to endure Trump eating up all his media airtime for the entire campaign, same as Jeb did. There is no winning move here.

 

[VRMN]

I do not like those 3rd party candidates polling so high.

Third party candidates typically do poll higher than they actually get in terms of real votes. High negatives on both sides are going to lead to a lot of "neithers" who pick a third party candidate in polls, but by and large either stay home in November, or suck it up and vote for the major party candidate they find least objectionable.

 

[Plinko]

Why is Trump making payments to a fictional ad company?

Apparently somebody saw the website and it looks awful. The actual address of the company is to a residential home.

This one is bigger to me:

He also made three payments to "Three Rescues Consulting". Including one a day before it even existed.

That is some fishy stuff. I really hope some journalists are going hard after this, especially after all the trash he talks about them.

 

[shinra-bansho]

So, I think it's great because its something to get under his skin, antagonize him about his tax returns, and regardless of his personal wealth is very clearly true for his campaign finances. Clinton and Romney didn't need to self fund because they were effective fundraisers. Trump is getting killed on the air, has no staff, and is a complete disaster. At what point does an extremely wealthy person who is in visual range the presidency just pony up? Meg Whitman is worth 2.1 B and spent 150 mil for a more uphill fight for governor.

I 100% agree that Trump's campaign debt is screwing his fundraising, but it's also more than that. He's too proud to call rich donors and ask for money (also most rich donors probably already hate him). Reince gave him a list of 20 odd donors and he was going to make calls. He got through 3 before quitting. I am sure that all his talk in the primary about being self funding and independent and luxuriously super rich can't be a great starter for micro funding.

So the interesting part isn't that Trump supposedly has the money and refuses to fund. The interesting part is that he supposedly has the money, his campaign is dying, he publicly bragged about self funding, he has no other remotely realistic options for the money, and he still refuses to do it.

Yes, his campaign is a mess. And it's certainly hilarious how thin skinned he is particularly about his business failures, so his povo campaign is going to really grate him.

I was really just referring to weird almost self-congratulatory posts about how maybe Donald Trump isn't personally wealthy. From memory he has something like $300 million in highly liquid assets. The only person who can scoff at that in here is Kev.

 

[Teggy]

Hum? The book is a mess?

NoTaxesNoNomination ‏@Adolf_Trump 2h2 hours ago
@realDonaldTrump
how did you finish the book, you can never make it past chapter 11

<rimshot>

 

[dramatis]

If the RNC oust Trump now their electorate will never learn. It's like the excuses that popped up after McCain and Romney lost. They weren't real conservatives! They weren't charismatic! They weren't XYZ. This time the crazy wing honestly got their choice, they have to take the loss in November to possibly start waking up.

 

[User 463088]

If the RNC oust Trump now their electorate will never learn. It's like the excuses that popped up after McCain and Romney lost. They weren't real conservatives! They weren't charismatic! They weren't XYZ. This time the crazy wing honestly got their choice, they have to take the loss in November to possibly start waking up.

Trump will not be their come to Jesus moment. He's not a real Conservative (honestly this time). He's just a racist. They could have had that moment with someone like Cruz. Trump will be an excuse for another cycle.

 

[kirblar]

Conservatives are fundamentally ideologues. They can't learn. The way this is solved is simple: they die off and get replaced by more socially liberal ones over time and gradually claw themselves back in through the process.

 

[plagiarize]

There is no painless escape for them. We passed the windmill a few months ago.

I'd ditch Trump and take my medicine now.

Yeah. Once you get your head around the idea that there is no way they are winning the Presidency, it then starts becoming a game of what move costs them more elsewhere.

They really should think long term, and disenfranchise the bigot vote now, as the strategy of dog whistles sure looks like it's reached it's inevitable end result. The GOP though struggle to think long term. They'll double down on whatever is least damaging for the house and senate seats this November, which is likely *not* upsetting the Donald Trump voter.

They're like a junkie, and the bigot vote is their drug. They know they should really quit them, but it's easier right now not to, and maybe everything will magically get better all by itself in the long term.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

My family is kind of ashamed we used to sit down in the 2000s and watch celebrity apprentice as a family. It used to be a show we all loved watching.

I can't believe the dude who used to sell ties at Macy's and was in their Christmas commercial managed to throw away his entire brand by being a tyrannical racist.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Sandernistas are coming home (6 to 1).


Yeah he needs Florida to have a viable path to 270.

But I'm still amazed at how close he is in Ohio and PA.

Eh, 15-20% are still lost in the woods in those close polls.

 

[HylianTom]

I agree...but they have to be damn sure they can successfully oust him. Can you imagine them trying to rip it away from him but failing. I think that has to play a part in it. I'm not sure the RNC has control of the delegates at this point. They have to go in with one person to offer in opposition to Trump. They can't allow two or three people to get their name into contention.

God, what a mess.

The phrase "you come at the king, you best not miss" comes to mind. They can only do it if they're 1000% sure of success. (Unless they're insane.. which, given this year's festivities thus far.. haha!)

..

Checked-in at FreeRepublic this morning, just to see what the other side is thinking. They're obsessed with jihad in America, many have completely bought that Pennsylvania is winnable, and they think the media are out to get Trump.

Yeah. Once you get your head around the idea that there is no way they are winning the Presidency, it then starts becoming a game of what move costs them more elsewhere.

They really should think long term, and disenfranchise the bigot vote now, as the strategy of dog whistles sure looks like it's reached it's inevitable end result. The GOP though struggle to think long term. They'll double down on whatever is least damaging for the house and senate seats this November, which is likely *not* upsetting the Donald Trump voter.

They're like a junkie, and the bigot vote is their drug. They know they should really quit them, but it's easier right now not to, and maybe everything will magically get better all by itself in the long term.

Making matters worse, they swear they'll quit on the day after Election Day 2016, but they'll be riding a sweet junky high off of it two years later, reinforcing their addiction.

 

[bangbang i'm a timpani]

nvmd found the RCP one

 

[thebloo]

and they think the media are out to get Trump.

To be fair, they are. It's not unjustified, but they're coming at him hard.

 

[Black Republican]

Wonder if Katrina is next off the Trump Train

 

[HylianTom]

To be fair, they are. It's not unjustified, but they're coming at him hard.

I can see that.. it's quite a contrast with how they treated him during the primary season. Amazing how this stuff all starts to trickle out once he's clinched.

 

[nature boy]

Jesus, the more you look at those Trump campaign expenses the more it looks like a scam.

$432000 to rent Mar-a-Lago? LOL

 

[B-Dubs]

I can see that.. it's quite a contrast with how they treated him during the primary season. Amazing how this stuff all starts to trickle out once he's clinched.

He was seen as a joke during the primary season by most of the press and a lot of political reporters are also looking for redemption since they blame themselves a bit for Trump.

 

[Iolo]

If you use public funding, can you raise money privately?

Not for the campaign, but you can raise money for the party (lol). I recall there being a couple exceptions for small expenses, which I can't find right now.

He can't get this until after the convention right? What are the qualifications for this? You have to be a Democrat or republican?

http://www.fec.gov/press/bkgnd/fund.shtml

You have to be the nominee of a major party (so, D or R). But, with a significant amount of retroactive momentum,

Third-party candidates could qualify for public funds retroactively if they received 5% or more of the vote in the general election.

Also:

The FEC administers the program, which involves determining which candidates are eligible and the amount to which they are entitled, and auditing their use of funds. (All campaigns receiving public funds are audited by the Commission.) The Treasury Department makes the payouts to the campaigns.

 

[Gruco]

He was seen as a joke during the primary season by most of the press and a lot of political reporters are also looking for redemption since they blame themselves a bit for Trump.

This is one of my favorite parts of the campaign season. Media realizing their pop news and horse race shit crossed a line this time and actually getting in to the trenches. I really hope this type of rapid fact checking and investigation lasts past the season, though I know it probably won't. A lot of it is driven by a quest for redemption but just as much I think is driven by a visceral hatred and fear of a president Trump.

 

[AndyD]

This oh maybe he's not rich thing is dumb. The Clintons could donate like 50 million to HRC's campaign too. Romney could have self funded hundreds of millions. And so can Trump.

That doesn't mean they would.

A lot of Trump's net worth is from memory his intangible brand asset. But that doesn't mean he doesn't have substantial tangible and/or liquid assets.

He's still a Trumpster fire.

Pigeon is also right in that the way Trump has structured his self funding as loans is going to scare off would be donors.

One way for him to allay donors fears would be to forgive the loan to the campaign and effectively donate it. Then donors money would go to the general fund, not to his pockets.

 

[Armoured Priest]

NoTaxesNoNomination &#8207;@Adolf_Trump 2h2 hours ago
@realDonaldTrump
how did you finish the book, you can never make it past chapter 11

<rimshot>

*dead.gif*

Oh man, co-workers are looking at me struggling to breathe from laughing, wondering if I'm OK.

 

[Mike M]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't self-funding a campaign usually structured as a loan that the campaign pays back with interest? I seem to recall that was what Romney did.

Given that Trump appears to be running this campaign to enrich himself rather than get elected, I'm guessing I'm either mistaken, or Trump hasn't thought of that particular revenue stream.

 

[Kusagari]

Just wait for Bernie to announce he's Stein's VP guys.

 

[Bowdz]

Even if you buy that the GOP could improve their situation by dumping Trump, we just lived through a year-long demonstration of their manifest inability to effectively coalesce around a viable Trump alternative. I highly doubt that the Dump Trump coup plotters can even agree on who should replace him. Plus that replacement would have to endure Trump eating up all his media airtime for the entire campaign, same as Jeb did. There is no winning move here.

Strong this.

As we just learned, there is no consensus candidate. There is no unifier. Theoretically, Ryan checks all of the boxes, but poll after poll indicate that the majority of the GOP electorate think that who ever got the most votes should be the nominee, so it seems unlikely Ryan would want to besmirch his reputation with the GOP electorate if he has any future presidential ambitions.

If the GOP changed the rules, there would be a fucking free for all on the floor of the convention. Cruz would absolutely want the mantle and would have a very powerful argument to get it. Kasich would still make a play for it. Romney or Ryan would be the pick of the donors and you'd probably have a few more has been crawl out of the woodwork.

If the primaries have taught us anything, it is that the GOP is so deeply fractured, that they have almost no ability to coordinate and execute plans together. If they'd been able to, they would have stopped Trump during the primaries.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Question on polling. Raw data is different than cross tabs correct?

Raw data has each individual person's answers while crosstabs are a simple analysis of said, no?

Like when PPP does those still tables where it asks if they support deez nuts and it shows romeny 2012 voters or more likely than obama 2012 voters to support him you can't discover that from a normal cross tabs, you need the underlying raw data?

like you can't use these crosstabs to compare how one answer in one question leads to another? Like there's no way to use this to compare q4 with q5 and know if they're the same people, besides assumptions?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

The fact that Bernie still hasn't endorsed just shows what an entitled ass he is.

Senate Dems should not give him any chair post.

 

[pigeon]

One way for him to allay donors fears would be to forgive the loan to the campaign and effectively donate it. Then donors money would go to the general fund, not to his pockets.

He actually said he already did that months ago but this FEC filing shows he never did. So that doesn't help either.

Contra shinra, I think Trump might just not have any liquid cash.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

The fact that Bernie still hasn't endorsed just shows what an entitled ass he is.

Senate Dems should not give him any chair post.

A lot of his ton reminds me of dudes not understanding they're not always right and assuming they're smarter/better/have more integrity than women.

I don't think its intentional or Bernie is a bad dude but I think there is an element of sexism in Bernie's choice intentional or not. Who else has acted like this when they lost?

 

[Gruco]

He actually said he already did that months ago but this FEC filing shows he never did. So that doesn't help either.

Contra shinra, I think Trump might just not have any liquid cash.

Yeah, this is kind of what I was getting at with my post earlier. At what point is he playing chicken with donors and at what point is he just not having any other option? Like, obviously Trump is profoundly stupid and doesn't know shit about politics. But he's running for president and sending out emergency emails for $100k. People with much less money than he claims to have spend more on senate seats. Why is he just letting Hillary go on the air with no response? I can come up with stories but Occam's Razor and all...

 

[shinra-bansho]

I looked again, his financial disclosures apparently list as a range his liquid assets at only between $80M - $230M, which wouldn't be enough to self-finance even on the high end. He'd probably have to liquidate some of his other assets.

"Billionaire" begging for money. Sad!

I mean the problem is he's not matching donation for donation. If he matches dollar for dollar in new loans, it's basically a net zero for the campaign if it decides to just pay him back.