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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

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A

ampere

Member
mo60 said:
I may be wrong about this, but I think trump will win texas by a single digit margin in October.
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That would be a pretty massive swing from +15.8% to Romney in 2012, but with Trump

PB2kixY.gif
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
This "don't listen to the polls!!!!1!" bullshit is exactly how no one in the media saw Trump coming. PPP kept coming up with these insane results about how many Republicans thought that Islam was evil and that Obama was a Muslim and that the Confederacy should have won the war and centrist people kept yelling that these were "troll polls."

And then Trump comes along and has nothing but white nationalism and crushes a field of 16 competitors that fully represents the GOP's intellectual qualities. And Trump dominates despite the fact that Trump will probably start a nuclear war with China and is clearly not religious or not prepared to be president.
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Anyone with half a functioning fucking brain (sorry Nate) knew what was going down, just based on the data. People who were counting out Trump in the primaries tangled themselves into knots to explain why he wouldn't actually win in spite of all available evidence showing otherwise.

It's also why "Well they said Trump wouldn't win the primary, so they're wrong that he won't win the general" is such an intellectually lazy, braindead fucking argument. First of all it always refers to a nebulous "they" as if there weren't a number of pundits, analysts, even GAFers saying all along that he'd win. Second, it assumes that those people will be wrong again for the completely opposite reasons.

What I think it comes down to is that most people in America are used to relatively close elections and give the Democrats and Republicans even weight as far as political credibility goes. So the fact that the GOP nominee, even if he's a complete disaster like Trump doesn't have much of a chance, is baffling. Similar to the Bernie/Hillary fight, when presented with two options, people will assume there's an exactly 50/50 chance of one or the other. Probability, how does it work?

Can't wait for four more months of "both sides are the same!" shit posting though.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 2h2 hours ago Washington, DC

In the undoubtedly rigged state of Vermont, 10% of Democratic primary voters were ages 18-29, per L2 data, v. 15% in the exit polls

FRAUD.

S4P is so totally calling for an audit, right. RIGHT?

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Bloomberg has Hillary up 12 points and has 55% of Bernie supporters not voting for her.

So I guess Hillary with a Bernie endorsement would be up by 20 points?
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My favorite part of the article is the Bernie guy who said, to the pollsters, that he's voting for Johnson...but he's not. He's going to vote for Stein because he's a member of the Green party.

Then say that dude! COME ON.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
So today Barbara Bush and a former Bush national secretary talked poorly about Trump and/or supported Clinton?

I really think by November, Bush 41, 43, and Jeb come out in favor of Hillary.
 
O

Ophelion

Member
Plinko said:
So today Barbara Bush and a former Bush national secretary talked poorly about Trump and/or supported Clinton?

I really think by November, Bush 41, 43, and Jeb come out in favor of Hillary.
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Hillary would actually lose points for that, I'm fairly certain, lol.
 
T

TheCrow

Member
GutsOfThor said:
lol! You're right! I've never really given Locke much thought until recently. I think he'd be a good pick.
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Lol I knew it! I read an article on him being a potential running mate a while back. He seems fine. Pretty low profile though. I still prefer Warren or Becerra. I just wish someone else would follow Warren and start attacking Trump more publicly. She's kinda set a high standard to meet.
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
I don't see Jeb coming out for Hillary at all. He still thinks he has another shot after the Trump nonsense passes. I just think he won't support Trump.
 
D

danm999

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Anyone with half a functioning fucking brain (sorry Nate) knew what was going down, just based on the data. People who were counting out Trump in the primaries tangled themselves into knots to explain why he wouldn't actually win in spite of all available evidence showing otherwise.

It's also why "Well they said Trump wouldn't win the primary, so they're wrong that he won't win the general" is such an intellectually lazy, braindead fucking argument. First of all it always refers to a nebulous "they" as if there weren't a number of pundits, analysts, even GAFers saying all along that he'd win. Second, it assumes that those people will be wrong again for the completely opposite reasons.

What I think it comes down to is that most people in America are used to relatively close elections and give the Democrats and Republicans even weight as far as political credibility goes. So the fact that the GOP nominee, even if he's a complete disaster like Trump doesn't have much of a chance, is baffling. Similar to the Bernie/Hillary fight, when presented with two options, people will assume there's an exactly 50/50 chance of one or the other. Probability, how does it work?

Can't wait for four more months of "both sides are the same!" shit posting though.
Click to expand...

I mean, an aggregate of polls told us what would happen in the primary, just like they will in the general.

Talking about a Trump resurgence in the general ignores once he jumped to the front of the field he never looked back.

It's just people arguing feels and momentum and tight race not really understanding the fundamentals of both races were locked in long ago and it would take something truly earth shattering to change them.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Come the fuck on, Pat.

A CBS4 News investigation into Murphy’s history as both a CPA and a self-described small business owner, however, shows Murphy has in some cases exaggerated his experience and in other instances made claims that were misleading or outright false.

For instance, he has never worked a day in his life as a Certified Public Accountant.

And he was never a small business owner.
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http://miami.cbslocal.com/2016/06/22/the-making-of-patrick-murphy/

How were Murphy and Grayson the two best guys to run in Florida?
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
johnsmith said:
Did anybody listen to this story this morning? It made me so angry I had to switch it off and listen to some music instead.

It was basically "Obama didn't fix racism so there's no reason to vote"


Why Many Young Black Activists See No Reason To Vote For President
http://www.npr.org/2016/06/22/48304...activists-see-no-reason-to-vote-for-president
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As with Bernie-or-bust types, I have little to no respect for people like this. At the very least, on the most basic level, a president appoints the Attorney General, who heads the Department of Justice. If your focus is on criminal justice or voting rights or civil rights it strikes me as very important to have an Attorney General in place who is not antagonistic to your causes. How would a President Mitt Romney and his appointed AG handle something like Ferguson? Eric Holder deserves a lot of credit for taking his job very seriously and doing everything in (and perhaps outside) his power to fight for criminal justice reforms, voting rights, (some, not all) civil rights, etc. How can someone say the president doesn't matter give the stakes of issues like these?

But as with Bernie supporters, there are a lot of activists of all stripes who believe presidents can wave a magic want and fix the country's ills, and thus the fact that ills still exists must prove the president is not an ally. The only thing presidents wave magic wands to accomplish with absolute power happen thousands of miles away from the United States, and often end in someone being blown up.

I wish all this activism would result in state prosecutors, judges, state legislators, etc being targeted for change but that remains to be seen. And just as Bernie's supporters won't spark some monumental grass roots change in local politics, I don't expect most activists to either. In my experience most people who complain the most about "the system" are not interested in changing it, making it very hard for genuine activists to organize people.
 
Z

Zeke

Member
ampere said:
That would be a pretty massive swing from +15.8% to Romney in 2012, but with Trump

http://i.imgur.com/PB2kixY.gif[IMG][/QUOTE]
I was looking for Texas specific polls earlier today. I found only two so far one from surveyUSA from Feb HRC 44% trump 47% and one from Sep with HRC 37% trump 39% which was Texas Lyceum. I am not familiar with either groups but I'm sure someone here can give insight but as always take with a grain of salt.



[url]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016[/url]

[url]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_clinton-5694.html[/url]
Click to expand...
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Cesare Borgia said:
As with Bernie-or-bust types, I have little to no respect for people like this. At the very least, on the most basic level, a president appoints the Attorney General, who heads the Department of Justice. If your focus is on criminal justice or voting rights or civil rights it strikes me as very important to have an Attorney General in place who is not antagonistic to your causes. How would a President Mitt Romney and his appointed AG handle something like Ferguson? Eric Holder deserves a lot of credit for taking his job very seriously and doing everything in (and perhaps outside) his power to fight for criminal justice reforms, voting rights, (some, not all) civil rights, etc. How can someone say the president doesn't matter give the stakes of issues like these?

But as with Bernie supporters, there are a lot of activists of all stripes who believe presidents can wave a magic want and fix the country's ills, and thus the fact that ills still exists must prove the president is not an ally. The only thing presidents wave magic wands to accomplish with absolute power happen thousands of miles away from the United States, and often end in someone being blown up.

I wish all this activism would result in state prosecutors, judges, state legislators, etc being targeted for change but that remains to be seen. And just as Bernie's supporters won't spark some monumental grass roots change in local politics, I don't expect most activists to either. In my experience most people who complain the most about "the system" are not interested in changing it, making it very hard for genuine activists to organize people.
Click to expand...
It's astonishing how many people want to enforce the purity test while not understanding anything about how our system works. Obama hasn't stalled on these things because he secretly supports them, it's because between 2011 and 2015 half of Congress has been run by shitheels who have no interest in governing and that was upgraded to all of Congress as of last year.

I can see someone arguing that Hillary Clinton might not be especially provocative on issues they care about. There might be some distrust there. But ultimately she'd be willing to play ball. If bills that restored McCain-Feingold, further regulated the financial industry beyond Dodd-Frank, restored the Voting Rights Act, raised the minimum wage to $15/hr, established free college, etc etc etc hit her desk do people really think she would veto them? I think people need to start seeing the president as more of a gatekeeper of whatever passes through Congress in terms of legislative politics rather than some all-powerful force that can will these things into being. The bully pulpit is completely irrelevant in split government because everyone will claim the mandate.
 
S

Slayven

Member
johnsmith said:
Did anybody listen to this story this morning? It made me so angry I had to switch it off and listen to some music instead.

It was basically "Obama didn't fix racism so there's no reason to vote"


Why Many Young Black Activists See No Reason To Vote For President
http://www.npr.org/2016/06/22/48304...activists-see-no-reason-to-vote-for-president
Click to expand...

Yeah this shit pisses me off, shit doesn't change overnight. At least not for the better. Doesn't mean you give up. Even when you gain something you don't stop, that is why you still see a lot of the folks that fought in the 60s and Bernie, still fighting the good fight.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Well, Patrick Murphy sounds toast. What the fuck are Dems doing.

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2016/06/22/the-making-of-patrick-murphy/

A CBS4 News investigation into Murphy’s history as both a CPA and a self-described small business owner, however, shows Murphy has in some cases exaggerated his experience and in other instances made claims that were misleading or outright false.

For instance, he has never worked a day in his life as a Certified Public Accountant.

And he was never a small business owner
Click to expand...

It’s worth noting, at the outset, Murphy’s involvement with Coastal Environmental was brief, no more than two to five months. And while it did operate, according to state records, Murphy wasn’t the president of the company. He was vice president.

The most significant revelation, however, is that neither Patrick Murphy nor Coastal Environmental Services were awarded a single contract to clean up oil in the Gulf.
Click to expand...
 
U

User 463088

Banned
kirblar said:
Yup, that's a tell.

Got a link to a non-email website?
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I can only get to it through emails. My mom got it. I got it in both of my emails. A friend of mine got it too...but they all seem to be tied to email. When you go to the site through it, though, it does say "your name here" there, but there's no direct link that I can find.

StopMakingSense said:
HOLY SHIT ADAM IS GOING TO BE VICE PRESIDENT
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I will be a benevolent god.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
HylianTom said:
Dammit, Murphy. Thanks a lot.

---

Meanwhile, Hillary's response to Trump's #ImWithYou gambit..
HillaryOfferNotValid.jpg
Click to expand...

Hillary's social media team >> Trump himself >> Trump's social media team.

Though TO BE FAIR, Trump's social media team has not posted any Nazi slogans or retweeted a Nazi in the two days since he's surrendered his account.
 
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