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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

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B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Why would Wisconsin be red?

I have the same otherwise but with AZ and NC going blue (and Hillary picking off the Nebraska EV).
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Wisconsin is a popular pick for Trump to flip, probably because it's very white and there's a general sense that Trump's isolationist rhetoric will play well in the Midwest. I don't see it. There's a reason he did so poorly in Wisconsin during the primary.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Ya, she either needs to go with it or tone it the fuck down. Please go with it....I need two Queens leading this country. Plus, it makes Bernie even less relevant to the "progressive" wing. It's win/win.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Box of Kittens said:
Wisconsin is a popular pick for Trump to flip, probably because it's very white and there's a general sense that Trump's isolationist rhetoric will play well in the Midwest. I don't see it. There's a reason he did so poorly in Wisconsin during the primary.
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Isn't Wisconsin (surprisingly) one of the more liberal states in the country?
 
B

Bel Marduk

Banned
metalslimer said:
Wisconsin isn't going red. At a minimum I see her getting all these plus WI plus or minus PA.

As for warren the test run seems to be going pretty well, otherwise I imagine she would be downplaying the two together. A bait and switch like this would be pretty terrible.
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The Republicans have put significant effort into trying to flip PA in the past two presidential elections and its failed pretty spectacularly.

I think the map will be pretty much the same as the 2012 map with the possibility of Arizona flipping (and not taking McCain with it.)
 
H

Holmes

Member
Maybe the Warren exposure on social media and the campaign trail is aimed at those with the "there can't be two women on the ticket!" fears. It's giving them a month+ to see the two together, digest it, and accept it.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Holmes said:
Maybe the Warren exposure on social media and the campaign trail is aimed at those with the "there can't be two women on the ticket!" fears. It's giving them a month+ to see the two together, digest it, and accept it.
Click to expand...

Plus, in the case of Warren as VP, don't they want her to officially accept it later due to the Senate seat situation?
 
O

Ophelion

Member
Holmes said:
Hype woman.
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I mean, you joke, but I feel like if she does get picked as Veep, that is effectively why. Watching the Ohio rally, you do feel pretty hyped for the ticket. Maybe what Warren adds to the equation is enthusiasm. That's something people are always saying team Clinton lacks right now. Plus, it does signal to the far left that Clinton will take their views seriously in a way. Whether that signaling is genuine or perceived as genuine, I have no idea, but yeah. I wasn't immediately taken with the idea at first, but this feels like a really good move. Especially given how insane Warren makes Trump.
 
H

Holmes

Member
B-Dubs said:
Someone post that hype man GIF that got updated with these two recently.
Click to expand...
HillaryWarrenEthered.gif
 
E

Emarv

Member
I wonder with the Warren push if Hillary's plan is give the Sanders camp way more leverage in crafting the party platform, but then don't give him a primetime speaking slot at the convention? Give Warren the primetime speech, accept the push for $15, etc and call it a day.
 
F

Fox318

Member
Holmes said:
Maybe the Warren exposure on social media and the campaign trail is aimed at those with the "there can't be two women on the ticket!" fears. It's giving them a month+ to see the two together, digest it, and accept it.
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I don't think the issue is if there is a problem with 2 women on the ticket so much as other candidates (most of them male) could be better.

But again the VP spot really shouldn't matter in an election.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
I don't think they are going to give Sanders anything more than he has. In fact with all the polls showing a comfortable Clinton lead and a possible Warren pick Bernie loses pretty much any of the small leverage he may have had. Warren was also careful if you listen to how she described Clinton yesterday.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Ophelion said:
I mean, you joke, but I feel like if she does get picked as Veep, that is effectively why. Watching the Ohio rally, you do feel pretty hyped for the ticket. Maybe what Warren adds to the equation is enthusiasm. That's something people are always saying team Clinton lacks right now. Plus, it does signal to the far left that Clinton will take their views seriously in a way. Whether that signaling is genuine or perceived as genuine, I have no idea, but yeah. I wasn't immediately taken with the idea at first, but this feels like a really good move. Especially given how insane Warren makes Trump.
Click to expand...

Also consider what the race will look like if Trump does in fact pick Newt. You're going to have two women running against Misogyny: The Ticket. The gender gap will go absolutely insane.

Holmes said:
HillaryWarrenEthered.gif
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That's the one. I have a feeling we're going to see this have a lot of use in the debate threads.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
H

Holmes

Member
Ophelion said:
I mean, you joke, but I feel like if she does get picked as Veep, that is effectively why. Watching the Ohio rally, you do feel pretty hyped for the ticket. Maybe what Warren adds to the equation is enthusiasm. That's something people are always saying team Clinton lacks right now. Plus, it does signal to the far left that Clinton will take their views seriously in a way. Whether that signaling is genuine or perceived as genuine, I have no idea, but yeah. I wasn't immediately taken with the idea at first, but this feels like a really good move. Especially given how insane Warren makes Trump.
Click to expand...
Exactly this. I'll preface this by saying it's a very basic explanation - even if polling did show that Clinton supporters were as (or even more) enthusiastic as Sanders supporters, it didn't show. I mean, it showed on election nights I guess, but in public settings, not so much. And that enthusiasm is important in elections. Sure, Sanders was nowhere close to "middle America" in terms of ideology or policy, but I think his campaign's enthusiasm really helped bring people over. Hillary Clinton, honestly, is a "safe" pick, especially against Trump. We don't need another "safe" choice. With Warren on the ticket and on the campaign trail (with the help of the Obamas, Bidens, and maybe Sanders?), people can get excited and enthused about a Hillary Clinton Presidency - and not just because "she's not Trump." You wouldn't get that from Kaine. You just wouldn't. He said it himself. He said "boring people" are the fastest growing demographic in America, but I don't think boring people want to be bored. They still do want to be excited. Warren is accomplished and ready for the job. She wants to campaign and Hillary said in the rally that she wants to work together with her.
 
O

Ophelion

Member
metalslimer said:
I don't think they are going to give Sanders anything more than he has. In fact with all the polls showing a comfortable Clinton lead and a possible Warren pick Bernie loses pretty much any of the small leverage he may have had. Warren was also careful if you listen to how she described Clinton yesterday.
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Oh yeah, it was super carefully worded even if it came off as of the same mind. There was lots of talk early on in Warren's bit that sounded an awful lot like a Bernie stump speech where she talked about her own views and then pivoted to how she and Clinton were similar. The end result is most of the crowd feeling like Hillary is for all those things, even if that wasn't ever explicitly said.

Clever, clever.
 
F

Fox318

Member
metalslimer said:
I don't think they are going to give Sanders anything more than he has. In fact with all the polls showing a comfortable Clinton lead and a possible Warren pick Bernie loses pretty much any of the small leverage he may have had. Warren was also careful if you listen to how she described Clinton yesterday.
Click to expand...

Unless Sanders has a hell of a summer Warren just took his momentum.
 
E

Emarv

Member
Isn't one of the Warren VP fears that the amount of enthusiasm she garners could pose an optics problem when they start campaigning separately? Like, when the media starts reporting on how Warren's rallies are bigger than Hillary's and Trump starts talking about it.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Believe in America is such a fucking bad theme. God his campaign is a dumpster fire trying to act real. He needs to go back to being an insane person.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Thequietone said:
I'm no expert but isn't NC expected to go blue too? Otherwise that's what I expect, maybe a few red states flipping but even with Trump I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't get better than that.

Edit: yeah, the Nebraska EV as well on mine and Wisconsin. I always forget those two. I won't predict red states flipping.
Click to expand...

I don;t think NC will go blue. It's full of too many people afraid of Muslims with guns using the wrong bathrooms.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Emarv said:
Isn't one of the Warren VP fears that the amount of enthusiasm she garners could pose an optics problem when they start campaigning separately? Like, when the media starts reporting on how Warren's rallies are bigger than Hillary's and Trump starts talking about it.
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Maybe. But I don't think it'll be a problem. Obama will get larger rallies than Hillary when he campaigns.
Biden might too.
Hillary likes smaller venues. It's known. She always has a large overflow because of it, which is annoying and it's why Kristofer wasn't able to see Hillary with me when she came to Sacramento. RIP. If she wanted a VP that would attract small crowds, she'd pick Martin O'Malley.
 
E

Emarv

Member
Y2Kev said:
Believe in America is such a fucking bad theme. God his campaign is a dumpster fire trying to act real. He needs to go back to being an insane person.
Click to expand...

Ditto. Clinton is the "campaign of fear". Give me a break, Manafort.


Demographically, the Warren pick has some sense to it. The closing white woman gap due to Trump gives Hillary a shot. They have most of the other demographics sewn up (although personally I'd wish the Hispanic split was larger), and they know they won't get white men. If Warren can help deliver white women and the more populist vote, that's a pretty solid deal.


Holmes said:
Maybe. But I don't think it'll be a problem. Obama will get larger rallies than Hillary when he campaigns.
Biden might too.
Hillary likes smaller venues. It's known. She always has a large overflow because of it, which is annoying and it's why Kristofer wasn't able to see Hillary with me when she came to Sacramento. RIP. If she wanted a VP that would attract small crowds, she'd pick Martin O'Malley.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I buy that.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
balladofwindfishes said:
Isn't Wisconsin (surprisingly) one of the more liberal states in the country?
Click to expand...

For all the talk of "conservative Middle America" that part of the Midwest is fairly liberal. Wisconsin is closely divided but leans Democratic at the presidential level. Unfortunately the state government is dominated by right wing conservatives and has been since the 2010 midterms.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Hillary is trying to scare you by telling you I'll deport illegals, ban Muslims, and haircut our debt


Idiot
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Slayven said:
whats the point of no return datewise? Like if you can't turn it around by this date, then you will probably lose
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In a normal campaign, Trump would still have plenty of time.. all the way to August or September, even. But Trump has made the mistake of turning off large segments of the electorate, so his comeback potential is always going to be hobbled by this factor.

I could see him making this a tighter contest, but he's really screwed himself. He did what Jeb mentioned waaaay at the beginning of the process: he won the primary while losing the general.
 
E

Emarv

Member
Slayven said:
whats the point of no return datewise? Like if you can't turn it around by this date, then you will probably lose
Click to expand...

My guess is probably sometime in early October, but it all depends on how big the spread is.

Like, if by late September, he's down by 7 or 8 still, I'd say it's pretty much over.

Edit: Now I'm curious what the biggest presidential comeback is. Bet it's Truman. Off to google!
 
G

Geg

Member
HylianTom said:
I could see him making this a tighter contest, but he's really screwed himself. He did what Jeb mentioned waaaay at the beginning of the process: he won the primary while losing the general.
Click to expand...

This particularly has been a big problem for the Republicans for the last three presidential elections but not really for the Democrats. Is the democratic primary electorate just really similar to the general election's?
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Emarv said:
My guess is probably sometime in early October, but it all depends on how big the spread is.

Like, if by late September, he's down by 7 or 8 still, I'd say it's pretty much over.

Edit: Now I'm curious what the biggest presidential comeback is. Bet it's Truman. Off to google!
Click to expand...

With Truman there's the issue of how much of that was actual movement and how much was due to sampling errors. The final polls had him about 5 points behind.

There's some very impressive near misses. Humphrey was about 15 points behind Nixon in late September and fought his way back to a near tie in the popular vote. Ford was trailing Carter by double digits in September and ended up losing a close one (not quite as close in the popular vote as Humphrey got, but closer in the Electoral College).
 
H

Holmes

Member
For what it's worth....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGON-V8Br1A

Warren was on The View today. When Maddow asked her a few weeks ago if she wants to be VP, it was a generic "I was elected by the people of Massachusetts etc" response. Today it was kind of a dodge/"I'm not going to answer". Also this Paula Faris lady keeps asking her "You don't like each other! You're so different! What the hell?"
 
M

minor effort

Banned
Holmes said:
For what it's worth....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGON-V8Br1A

Warren was on The View today. When Maddow asked her a few weeks ago if she wants to be VP, it was a generic "I was elected by the people of Massachusetts etc" response. Today it was kind of a dodge/"I'm not going to answer".
Click to expand...

Both of those are the standard kinds of answers. You always want to stop short of looking like you're actively angling to be selected VP. It's just decorum to be "humbly selected".

I think they're becoming aware they're signaling this a little too hard too early if the announcement isn't immediately impending.
 
P

Pixieking

Banned
Officerrob said:
White House Press seems to not care about Benghazi
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Nope, and I can't blame them, either - Republicans played it out for too long. People are tired of hearing about it, especially when the Democrats got in early with the "This committee wasted millions" line. It's old news compared to Trump's racism, SCOTUS on abortion, and even Brexit.
 
D

DataStream

Member
What was the cut-off date in MA for folding a Senate election into the fall to avoid an appointment?

Was there further movement on Reid's investigation for possible ways to deal with a vacancy?
 
T

Teggy

Member
Clinton should test drive all the possible VPs at events for a week and let them all shit on Trump. We get to see how they work together and Trump's head spins.
 
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