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[ApharmdX]

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http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=208424143&postcount=9272

Tim Kaine/Jeff Sessions

 

[Box of Kittens]

Why would Wisconsin be red?

I have the same otherwise but with AZ and NC going blue (and Hillary picking off the Nebraska EV).

Wisconsin is a popular pick for Trump to flip, probably because it's very white and there's a general sense that Trump's isolationist rhetoric will play well in the Midwest. I don't see it. There's a reason he did so poorly in Wisconsin during the primary.

 

[User 463088]

Ya, she either needs to go with it or tone it the fuck down. Please go with it....I need two Queens leading this country. Plus, it makes Bernie even less relevant to the "progressive" wing. It's win/win.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Wisconsin is a popular pick for Trump to flip, probably because it's very white and there's a general sense that Trump's isolationist rhetoric will play well in the Midwest. I don't see it. There's a reason he did so poorly in Wisconsin during the primary.

Isn't Wisconsin (surprisingly) one of the more liberal states in the country?

 

[Holmes]

Isn't Wisconsin (surprisingly) one of the more liberal states in the country?

Kind of. It's a very polarized state, although with Presidential turnout, it's reliably Democratic. There are some very left-wing people there and some very right-wing people.

 

[Bel Marduk]

Wisconsin isn't going red. At a minimum I see her getting all these plus WI plus or minus PA.

As for warren the test run seems to be going pretty well, otherwise I imagine she would be downplaying the two together. A bait and switch like this would be pretty terrible.

The Republicans have put significant effort into trying to flip PA in the past two presidential elections and its failed pretty spectacularly.

I think the map will be pretty much the same as the 2012 map with the possibility of Arizona flipping (and not taking McCain with it.)

 

[Holmes]

Maybe the Warren exposure on social media and the campaign trail is aimed at those with the "there can't be two women on the ticket!" fears. It's giving them a month+ to see the two together, digest it, and accept it.

 

[B-Dubs]

Hype woman.

Someone post that hype man GIF that got updated with these two recently.

 

[Suikoguy]

Maybe the Warren exposure on social media and the campaign trail is aimed at those with the "there can't be two women on the ticket!" fears. It's giving them a month+ to see the two together, digest it, and accept it.

Plus, in the case of Warren as VP, don't they want her to officially accept it later due to the Senate seat situation?

 

[Ophelion]

Hype woman.

I mean, you joke, but I feel like if she does get picked as Veep, that is effectively why. Watching the Ohio rally, you do feel pretty hyped for the ticket. Maybe what Warren adds to the equation is enthusiasm. That's something people are always saying team Clinton lacks right now. Plus, it does signal to the far left that Clinton will take their views seriously in a way. Whether that signaling is genuine or perceived as genuine, I have no idea, but yeah. I wasn't immediately taken with the idea at first, but this feels like a really good move. Especially given how insane Warren makes Trump.

 

[Holmes]

Someone post that hype man GIF that got updated with these two recently.

 

[Emarv]

I wonder with the Warren push if Hillary's plan is give the Sanders camp way more leverage in crafting the party platform, but then don't give him a primetime speaking slot at the convention? Give Warren the primetime speech, accept the push for $15, etc and call it a day.

 

[Fox318]

Maybe the Warren exposure on social media and the campaign trail is aimed at those with the "there can't be two women on the ticket!" fears. It's giving them a month+ to see the two together, digest it, and accept it.

I don't think the issue is if there is a problem with 2 women on the ticket so much as other candidates (most of them male) could be better.

But again the VP spot really shouldn't matter in an election.

 

[metalslimer]

I don't think they are going to give Sanders anything more than he has. In fact with all the polls showing a comfortable Clinton lead and a possible Warren pick Bernie loses pretty much any of the small leverage he may have had. Warren was also careful if you listen to how she described Clinton yesterday.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Trump is getting dominated in the state polling of Wisconsin, I'd worry about Pennsylvania before Wisconsin.

 

[B-Dubs]

I mean, you joke, but I feel like if she does get picked as Veep, that is effectively why. Watching the Ohio rally, you do feel pretty hyped for the ticket. Maybe what Warren adds to the equation is enthusiasm. That's something people are always saying team Clinton lacks right now. Plus, it does signal to the far left that Clinton will take their views seriously in a way. Whether that signaling is genuine or perceived as genuine, I have no idea, but yeah. I wasn't immediately taken with the idea at first, but this feels like a really good move. Especially given how insane Warren makes Trump.

Also consider what the race will look like if Trump does in fact pick Newt. You're going to have two women running against Misogyny: The Ticket. The gender gap will go absolutely insane.

That's the one. I have a feeling we're going to see this have a lot of use in the debate threads.

 

[whyamihere]

hahahahaahahahhahahahahaahahahahhahaahahh

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/747843086420705280

@ShaneGoldmacher
Trump seems to be rolling out a new theme per advanced copy of speech today http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/full-transcript-trump-job-plan-speech-224891

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/747843999642193920

@sahilkapur
Sounds familiar. https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/747843086420705280

 

[thebloo]

The argument of "Trump voters are just worried about immigration and terrorism!" when Trump voters live in the deep south which (other than Texas) has few undocumented immigrants and a 0% chance of being affected by ISIS.

They're patriots!

 

[Officerrob]

White House Press seems to not care about Benghazi

 

[Holmes]

I mean, you joke, but I feel like if she does get picked as Veep, that is effectively why. Watching the Ohio rally, you do feel pretty hyped for the ticket. Maybe what Warren adds to the equation is enthusiasm. That's something people are always saying team Clinton lacks right now. Plus, it does signal to the far left that Clinton will take their views seriously in a way. Whether that signaling is genuine or perceived as genuine, I have no idea, but yeah. I wasn't immediately taken with the idea at first, but this feels like a really good move. Especially given how insane Warren makes Trump.

Exactly this. I'll preface this by saying it's a very basic explanation - even if polling did show that Clinton supporters were as (or even more) enthusiastic as Sanders supporters, it didn't show. I mean, it showed on election nights I guess, but in public settings, not so much. And that enthusiasm is important in elections. Sure, Sanders was nowhere close to "middle America" in terms of ideology or policy, but I think his campaign's enthusiasm really helped bring people over. Hillary Clinton, honestly, is a "safe" pick, especially against Trump. We don't need another "safe" choice. With Warren on the ticket and on the campaign trail (with the help of the Obamas, Bidens, and maybe Sanders?), people can get excited and enthused about a Hillary Clinton Presidency - and not just because "she's not Trump." You wouldn't get that from Kaine. You just wouldn't. He said it himself. He said "boring people" are the fastest growing demographic in America, but I don't think boring people want to be bored. They still do want to be excited. Warren is accomplished and ready for the job. She wants to campaign and Hillary said in the rally that she wants to work together with her.

 

[Ophelion]

I don't think they are going to give Sanders anything more than he has. In fact with all the polls showing a comfortable Clinton lead and a possible Warren pick Bernie loses pretty much any of the small leverage he may have had. Warren was also careful if you listen to how she described Clinton yesterday.

Oh yeah, it was super carefully worded even if it came off as of the same mind. There was lots of talk early on in Warren's bit that sounded an awful lot like a Bernie stump speech where she talked about her own views and then pivoted to how she and Clinton were similar. The end result is most of the crowd feeling like Hillary is for all those things, even if that wasn't ever explicitly said.

Clever, clever.

 

[Fox318]

I don't think they are going to give Sanders anything more than he has. In fact with all the polls showing a comfortable Clinton lead and a possible Warren pick Bernie loses pretty much any of the small leverage he may have had. Warren was also careful if you listen to how she described Clinton yesterday.

Unless Sanders has a hell of a summer Warren just took his momentum.

 

[Emarv]

Isn't one of the Warren VP fears that the amount of enthusiasm she garners could pose an optics problem when they start campaigning separately? Like, when the media starts reporting on how Warren's rallies are bigger than Hillary's and Trump starts talking about it.

 

[Y2Kev]

Believe in America is such a fucking bad theme. God his campaign is a dumpster fire trying to act real. He needs to go back to being an insane person.

 

[Wilsongt]

I'm no expert but isn't NC expected to go blue too? Otherwise that's what I expect, maybe a few red states flipping but even with Trump I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't get better than that.

Edit: yeah, the Nebraska EV as well on mine and Wisconsin. I always forget those two. I won't predict red states flipping.

I don;t think NC will go blue. It's full of too many people afraid of Muslims with guns using the wrong bathrooms.

 

[Holmes]

Isn't one of the Warren VP fears that the amount of enthusiasm she garners could pose an optics problem when they start campaigning separately? Like, when the media starts reporting on how Warren's rallies are bigger than Hillary's and Trump starts talking about it.

Maybe. But I don't think it'll be a problem. Obama will get larger rallies than Hillary when he campaigns.

Spoiler

Biden might too.

Hillary likes smaller venues. It's known. She always has a large overflow because of it, which is annoying and it's why Kristofer wasn't able to see Hillary with me when she came to Sacramento. RIP. If she wanted a VP that would attract small crowds, she'd pick Martin O'Malley.

 

[Emarv]

Believe in America is such a fucking bad theme. God his campaign is a dumpster fire trying to act real. He needs to go back to being an insane person.

Ditto. Clinton is the "campaign of fear". Give me a break, Manafort.


Demographically, the Warren pick has some sense to it. The closing white woman gap due to Trump gives Hillary a shot. They have most of the other demographics sewn up (although personally I'd wish the Hispanic split was larger), and they know they won't get white men. If Warren can help deliver white women and the more populist vote, that's a pretty solid deal.

Maybe. But I don't think it'll be a problem. Obama will get larger rallies than Hillary when he campaigns.

Spoiler

Biden might too.

Hillary likes smaller venues. It's known. She always has a large overflow because of it, which is annoying and it's why Kristofer wasn't able to see Hillary with me when she came to Sacramento. RIP. If she wanted a VP that would attract small crowds, she'd pick Martin O'Malley.

Yeah, I buy that.

 

[Slayven]

whats the point of no return datewise? Like if you can't turn it around by this date, then you will probably lose

 

[NYCmetsfan]

hahahahaahahahhahahahahaahahahahhahaahahh

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/747843086420705280



https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/747843999642193920

Hillary's fear?

Dude must be getting his advice from Rove

 

[digdug2k]

He's like a sitcom character.

Lol. If you told me this was a Simpsons quote, I'd believe you.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Isn't Wisconsin (surprisingly) one of the more liberal states in the country?

For all the talk of "conservative Middle America" that part of the Midwest is fairly liberal. Wisconsin is closely divided but leans Democratic at the presidential level. Unfortunately the state government is dominated by right wing conservatives and has been since the 2010 midterms.

 

[Y2Kev]

Hillary is trying to scare you by telling you I'll deport illegals, ban Muslims, and haircut our debt


Idiot

 

[HylianTom]

whats the point of no return datewise? Like if you can't turn it around by this date, then you will probably lose

In a normal campaign, Trump would still have plenty of time.. all the way to August or September, even. But Trump has made the mistake of turning off large segments of the electorate, so his comeback potential is always going to be hobbled by this factor.

I could see him making this a tighter contest, but he's really screwed himself. He did what Jeb mentioned waaaay at the beginning of the process: he won the primary while losing the general.

 

[whyamihere]

whats the point of no return datewise? Like if you can't turn it around by this date, then you will probably lose

I'd say after the second debate.

 

[Wilsongt]

H. A. Goodman ‏@HAGOODMANAUTHOR 9h9 hours ago

#BernieSanders https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLf4ICvRgq0 … Elizabeth Warren, We Know You Hate Hillary Clinton. You're Not Fooling Anyone.

 

[Officerrob]

Why is Nina Turner still being interviewed?

 

[Emarv]

whats the point of no return datewise? Like if you can't turn it around by this date, then you will probably lose

My guess is probably sometime in early October, but it all depends on how big the spread is.

Like, if by late September, he's down by 7 or 8 still, I'd say it's pretty much over.

Edit: Now I'm curious what the biggest presidential comeback is. Bet it's Truman. Off to google!

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Paul Manafort is pathetic at campaigns, he needs more violence to be effective at all.

 

[B-Dubs]

Why is Nina Turner still being interviewed?

Beats the shit out of me.

 

[whyamihere]

(As written) Trump's speech on trade is pretty good in terms of giving a message. Because it's the Leave campaign's message.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/full-transcript-trump-job-plan-speech-224891

These Trump speeches keep not sounding like him, which is both good but also makes him sound utterly deflated when he gives a speech.

 

[Geg]

I could see him making this a tighter contest, but he's really screwed himself. He did what Jeb mentioned waaaay at the beginning of the process: he won the primary while losing the general.

This particularly has been a big problem for the Republicans for the last three presidential elections but not really for the Democrats. Is the democratic primary electorate just really similar to the general election's?

 

[Box of Kittens]

My guess is probably sometime in early October, but it all depends on how big the spread is.

Like, if by late September, he's down by 7 or 8 still, I'd say it's pretty much over.

Edit: Now I'm curious what the biggest presidential comeback is. Bet it's Truman. Off to google!

With Truman there's the issue of how much of that was actual movement and how much was due to sampling errors. The final polls had him about 5 points behind.

There's some very impressive near misses. Humphrey was about 15 points behind Nixon in late September and fought his way back to a near tie in the popular vote. Ford was trailing Carter by double digits in September and ended up losing a close one (not quite as close in the popular vote as Humphrey got, but closer in the Electoral College).

 

[Holmes]

For what it's worth....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGON-V8Br1A

Warren was on The View today. When Maddow asked her a few weeks ago if she wants to be VP, it was a generic "I was elected by the people of Massachusetts etc" response. Today it was kind of a dodge/"I'm not going to answer". Also this Paula Faris lady keeps asking her "You don't like each other! You're so different! What the hell?"

 

[B-Dubs]

For what it's worth....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGON-V8Br1A

Warren was on The View today. When Maddow asked her a few weeks ago if she wants to be VP, it was a generic "I was elected by the people of Massachusetts etc" response. Today it was kind of a dodge/"I'm not going to answer".

Oh they're just teasing us now. Sounds like the decision's already been made.

 

[minor effort]

For what it's worth....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGON-V8Br1A

Warren was on The View today. When Maddow asked her a few weeks ago if she wants to be VP, it was a generic "I was elected by the people of Massachusetts etc" response. Today it was kind of a dodge/"I'm not going to answer".

Both of those are the standard kinds of answers. You always want to stop short of looking like you're actively angling to be selected VP. It's just decorum to be "humbly selected".

I think they're becoming aware they're signaling this a little too hard too early if the announcement isn't immediately impending.

 

[Pixieking]

White House Press seems to not care about Benghazi

Nope, and I can't blame them, either - Republicans played it out for too long. People are tired of hearing about it, especially when the Democrats got in early with the "This committee wasted millions" line. It's old news compared to Trump's racism, SCOTUS on abortion, and even Brexit.

 

[Holmes]

Oh they're just teasing us now. Sounds like the decision's already been made.

The story Warren gave at the end when asked about a two women ticket was pretty good, though I wish she'd just come out and say "hell yeah the country's ready".

 

[DataStream]

What was the cut-off date in MA for folding a Senate election into the fall to avoid an appointment?

Was there further movement on Reid's investigation for possible ways to deal with a vacancy?

 

[Teggy]

Clinton should test drive all the possible VPs at events for a week and let them all shit on Trump. We get to see how they work together and Trump's head spins.

 

[kirblar]

The instant that fundraising email Adam posted went out, the jig was up. Barring a vetting issue, it's Warren.