nature boy
Member
Not the first poll showing it's a close race.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour
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Not the first poll showing it's a close race.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I think people need to understand that our country is so polarized now that our presidential election polling is going to look like this no matter what happens.
Counting on a "Trump gaffe" to damage the Republican candidate's poll numbers is almost ridiculous at this point.
Counting on a "Trump gaffe" to damage the Republican candidate's poll numbers is almost ridiculous at this point.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
U.S. killed Umar Khalifa, yesssssssss.
Important to do this during a presidential campaign.
Why haven't there been any polls of Jewish voters about Trump's Nazi images?
Important to do this during a presidential campaign.
Why haven't there been any polls of Jewish voters about Trump's Nazi images?
Outdoor Miner
Member
I can't wait for when he gets obliterated in November and goes scorched-earth suing everyone on the planet.
yankeeforever2
Member
Trumps ads are all over CNN and Fox News, Super Pac ads but does it really matter?
Ah so that's how he's going to fund his campaign.
VendettaRed07
Member
READ THIS IF YOU'RE THINKING BERNIE IS FINISHED!!!!
FAQ time:
Q. WHY DID BERNIE ENDORSE HILLARY NOW?
A. They threatened to completey shut him out of the convention if he didn't.
Q. COULDN'T HE HAVE SAID SCREW THEM AND GO FIGHT AT THE CONVENTION ANYWAY?
A. No. Hillary has more delegates, Superdelegates, and supporters on the DNC rules committee. They would have voted down every one of our platforms, denied Bernie the opportunity to speak, and basically shut him out of the entire process. All the leverage he has gained up to this point would be gone.
Q. SO WAIT, BERNIE DIDN'T QUIT TODAY?
A. No. He had to say she won the primary, he endorses her and will help the party defeat Trump, yadda yadda but he DID NOT concede. There is a very big and important difference. Had he conceded, all of his delegates would go to Hillary and he would no longer be an option for nominee.
Q. SO BERNIE CAN ACTUALLY STILL WIN?
A. YES. And if he wasn't still TRYING to win, he would have conceded. The ONLY option he had to get to the convention with his delegates behind him and have a chance to still win was to do what he did today. He is not a traitor. He didn't sell us out. He did the only possible thing he could have done to keep fighting for the nomination.
Q. SO HOW CAN BERNIE STILL WIN IF HES LOSING THE DELEGATE COUNT AND HE JUST SAID HE WILL HELP HILLARY WIN THE ELECTION?
A. By far the most important thing to the DNC, even more important than making sure Hillary beats Bernie, is making sure the Democratic nominee beats the Republicans in November. They scrutinize every poll, every opinion of the public, every event to judge whether a candidate is strong enough to win in November. There are A LOT of things going on right now that show how weak of a general election candidate Hillary Clinton is:
- 66% of the country sees her as untrustworthy
- 60% thinks she should have been indicted for the email scandal
- A lot of Bernie supporters won't vote for her
- Congress has requested the Department of Justice investigate her for lying under oath about the email scandal
- There's a possibility more emails will be leaked by wikileaks or hackers further proving her guilt
- Many believe the FBI is secretly investigating the Clinton Foundation
- Her "wins" during the primary have been tainted with accusations of fraud, suppression, lawsuits, and investigations
And then there's Bernie. An honest candidate people trust and whose approval rating and trustworthy rating crushes Clinton's. This is the argument Bernie will make at the convention. With all his 1,900 delegates inside arguing this case and 100,000 supporters outside arguing this case, we hope the DNC realizes he's the only choice. He CAN win the convention, but he has to get there first. That's why he endorsed her today.
Q. SO ITS STILL IMPORTANT THAT ALL OF HIS DELEGATES GO TO THE CONVENTION AND WE ALL STILL MARCH LIKE WE PLANNED TO DO?
A. Yes! It's more important now than it ever was before.
Q. WHAT IF THE DNC STILL REFUSES TO NOMINATE HIM AT THE CONVENTION? CAN HE STILL RUN THIRD PARTY NOW THAT HE ENDORSED HER?
A. Yes. In fact, running third party has never been an option until AFTER the convention. We need to stick with Bernie and see this through to the convention. He's led us this far. Do NOT abandon him now.
Q. WHAT IF HE LOSES AT THE CONVENTION AND DOESNT RUN THIRD PARTY, BUT INSTEAD ENDORSES HILLARY 100% AND ASKS US TO VOTE FOR HER?
A. Then our revolution continues without him and we continue to fight against Hillary Clinton and the DNC all the way up to November and beyond by voting for someone like Jill Stein or writing Bernie in. But the time for that is NOT here yet.
Q. SO WHAT DID BERNIE ACCOMPLISH WITH THIS MOVE?
A. Backed into a corner, facing the entire political pressure of the Democratic Party and the DNC, robbed of a right to claim he should be winning if not for a rigged process, and faced with the threat of being shut out of the convention completely Bernie:
1. Managed to stay in the race and secure a prime speaking slot at a contested convention which he can turn into a floor fight
2. Kept all of his delegates to use as leverage in that floor fight
3. Got tens of thousands of people to "Like" and "follow" Green Party candidate Jill Stein on social media
4. Amplified the ‪#‎NeverHilliary‬ screams of his supporters for all the media and Superdelegates to see 12 days before the convention.
Anyone trashing Bernie today needs to wake up and respect the masterful chess move he just made!!!
AT LEAST GIVE THE MAN YOUR SUPPORT UNTIL THE CONVENTION, HE HAS EARNED THAT MUCH AND HASNT CONCEDED YET!!!
FAQ time:
Q. WHY DID BERNIE ENDORSE HILLARY NOW?
A. They threatened to completey shut him out of the convention if he didn't.
Q. COULDN'T HE HAVE SAID SCREW THEM AND GO FIGHT AT THE CONVENTION ANYWAY?
A. No. Hillary has more delegates, Superdelegates, and supporters on the DNC rules committee. They would have voted down every one of our platforms, denied Bernie the opportunity to speak, and basically shut him out of the entire process. All the leverage he has gained up to this point would be gone.
Q. SO WAIT, BERNIE DIDN'T QUIT TODAY?
A. No. He had to say she won the primary, he endorses her and will help the party defeat Trump, yadda yadda but he DID NOT concede. There is a very big and important difference. Had he conceded, all of his delegates would go to Hillary and he would no longer be an option for nominee.
Q. SO BERNIE CAN ACTUALLY STILL WIN?
A. YES. And if he wasn't still TRYING to win, he would have conceded. The ONLY option he had to get to the convention with his delegates behind him and have a chance to still win was to do what he did today. He is not a traitor. He didn't sell us out. He did the only possible thing he could have done to keep fighting for the nomination.
Q. SO HOW CAN BERNIE STILL WIN IF HES LOSING THE DELEGATE COUNT AND HE JUST SAID HE WILL HELP HILLARY WIN THE ELECTION?
A. By far the most important thing to the DNC, even more important than making sure Hillary beats Bernie, is making sure the Democratic nominee beats the Republicans in November. They scrutinize every poll, every opinion of the public, every event to judge whether a candidate is strong enough to win in November. There are A LOT of things going on right now that show how weak of a general election candidate Hillary Clinton is:
- 66% of the country sees her as untrustworthy
- 60% thinks she should have been indicted for the email scandal
- A lot of Bernie supporters won't vote for her
- Congress has requested the Department of Justice investigate her for lying under oath about the email scandal
- There's a possibility more emails will be leaked by wikileaks or hackers further proving her guilt
- Many believe the FBI is secretly investigating the Clinton Foundation
- Her "wins" during the primary have been tainted with accusations of fraud, suppression, lawsuits, and investigations
And then there's Bernie. An honest candidate people trust and whose approval rating and trustworthy rating crushes Clinton's. This is the argument Bernie will make at the convention. With all his 1,900 delegates inside arguing this case and 100,000 supporters outside arguing this case, we hope the DNC realizes he's the only choice. He CAN win the convention, but he has to get there first. That's why he endorsed her today.
Q. SO ITS STILL IMPORTANT THAT ALL OF HIS DELEGATES GO TO THE CONVENTION AND WE ALL STILL MARCH LIKE WE PLANNED TO DO?
A. Yes! It's more important now than it ever was before.
Q. WHAT IF THE DNC STILL REFUSES TO NOMINATE HIM AT THE CONVENTION? CAN HE STILL RUN THIRD PARTY NOW THAT HE ENDORSED HER?
A. Yes. In fact, running third party has never been an option until AFTER the convention. We need to stick with Bernie and see this through to the convention. He's led us this far. Do NOT abandon him now.
Q. WHAT IF HE LOSES AT THE CONVENTION AND DOESNT RUN THIRD PARTY, BUT INSTEAD ENDORSES HILLARY 100% AND ASKS US TO VOTE FOR HER?
A. Then our revolution continues without him and we continue to fight against Hillary Clinton and the DNC all the way up to November and beyond by voting for someone like Jill Stein or writing Bernie in. But the time for that is NOT here yet.
Q. SO WHAT DID BERNIE ACCOMPLISH WITH THIS MOVE?
A. Backed into a corner, facing the entire political pressure of the Democratic Party and the DNC, robbed of a right to claim he should be winning if not for a rigged process, and faced with the threat of being shut out of the convention completely Bernie:
1. Managed to stay in the race and secure a prime speaking slot at a contested convention which he can turn into a floor fight
2. Kept all of his delegates to use as leverage in that floor fight
3. Got tens of thousands of people to "Like" and "follow" Green Party candidate Jill Stein on social media
4. Amplified the ‪#‎NeverHilliary‬ screams of his supporters for all the media and Superdelegates to see 12 days before the convention.
Anyone trashing Bernie today needs to wake up and respect the masterful chess move he just made!!!
AT LEAST GIVE THE MAN YOUR SUPPORT UNTIL THE CONVENTION, HE HAS EARNED THAT MUCH AND HASNT CONCEDED YET!!!
Indeed. The question refers to campaign ads, not all ads for a candidate. Distinction is minor on the whole.
Where the hell did this madness come from?
Spoiled Milk
Banned
I've seen ads against Hillary Clinton, I think. It's easy to confuse PAC messaging with official campaign ads.
Neodiablo22
Member
Washington Post: Sanders, Warren, Michelle Obama likely to speak on Democratic conventions opening night
We're getting a clearer picture of the Democratic convention before the Republican one, even though they go first!
We're getting a clearer picture of the Democratic convention before the Republican one, even though they go first!
VendettaRed07
Member
Someone posting on "Bernie Sander's Dank meme stash" on Facebook
There have been some Trump NRA ads, people probably attributed those to his campaign.
VendettaRed07
Member
Is it true that Warren speaking on the opening night is likely an indication she isn't getting picked?
Not the case. There are polling outlets dedicated to providing feel-good info to Rs and Ds.
The R ones have been easier to figure out over the last few cycles because they've been losing.
Yes.
Her recent comments on Google et al were a reminder of "oh yeah this is the issue."
She probably isn't going to get picked, but no. If she get's picked, they'll just move her speaking slot to the right night.
1) I have seen 2 pro-toomey ad's and one negative mcginty ad, and thats it. Nothing else.
2) McGinty is terrible, and if she is winning, that says a lot about how PA is going to go. McGinty isn't going to win and Clinton lose. Thats insanity. The other way could definitely happen, but McGinty isn't winning without Hillary winning
Special election in my area for state senate
9100 votes with 30,000 registered. JFC people
2) McGinty is terrible, and if she is winning, that says a lot about how PA is going to go. McGinty isn't going to win and Clinton lose. Thats insanity. The other way could definitely happen, but McGinty isn't winning without Hillary winning
Special election in my area for state senate
9100 votes with 30,000 registered. JFC people
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
RustyNails
Member
Swim with the sharks, best be prepared to get bit.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
balladofwindfishes
Member
This Admiral looks like a pretty nice oddball pick. Unexpected, but he seems alright to me.
I can imagine some far left people getting nervous having a military guy as VP, but they're stupid as any casual reading of his history shows he isn't exactly a man who wants to jump into war, and is quite the opposite.
I can imagine some far left people getting nervous having a military guy as VP, but they're stupid as any casual reading of his history shows he isn't exactly a man who wants to jump into war, and is quite the opposite.
What if Christie is announced as VP?
yeah, he seems great to me.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Not to mention there will be debate fluctuations, October surprises, and whatever else.
VendettaRed07
Member
I hope so.
I really think she needs her. Like really. Kaine is a safe pick, but I think if anything is a lesson this cycle staying safe is the most dangerous option.
Almost no matter who is voting people are saying they want a break from a status quo.
The new Dem platform is exciting. We need someone who is completely, enthusiastically behind every aspect of it, and the economic populism behind it.
I don't see anyone else who can do it other than Warren. I get why picking Kaine is better for if she actually wins,but these new polls are making me worried. None of the inconveniences Warren's pick will bring mean anything if she doesn't win.
We desperately need Warren's economic populism and the credibility she brings in that department this cycle.
Adding her on the ticket is as much as Hillary can really do to prove that she is serious about this these issues.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
The more I think about it, the more having the former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO being your VP would be such a snag, especially with the "TERRORISM IS GOING TO KILL EVERYONE" group of people.
I think he could really help with scared white people going to Trump because he says strong words.
I think he could really help with scared white people going to Trump because he says strong words.
VendettaRed07
Member
Those people aren't voting for Clinton anyway. They are already convinced she personally killed troops in Benghazi.
Also, too much of the democratic base sees Hillary as being too hawkish. Picking a guy whose position was Supreme Allied Commander, is literally the worst thing she could do to help with that image.
She would already be President right now had she not voted for the Iraq war. And she still has that vote hanging over her head even if it didn't take her down this time. An attempt at pandering to a base that already isn't going to vote for her that will backfire imo
People aren't as scared of terrorism as they are scared about their immediate economic future. Domestic issues are where we need to focus. We aren't going to beat the GOP in terrorism fear mongering to get votes
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Maybe if you live in a world where everyone is either a Breitbart reader or is not. But there are people like the Jennifer Rubin's of the world who cannot support Trump and can be swayed by a ticket that highlights stability/experience.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
You know what kills me? All of you dweebs were so incredulous and beyond yourselves last week when a few polls came out that said the margin was tightening and absolutely could not believe it. It was so funny to everyone and many laughs were had.
And now this week Diablos is shrieking!
And now this week Diablos is shrieking!
balladofwindfishes
Member
There are going to be quite a lot of pretty disappointed people who enter the ballot and find out she isn't on it. Since there's a 1/3 chance the state won't have her on the ballot (iirc, she's only on 30 of the ballots this year)
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Trump has no operation in basically any state:
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_57866c42e4b03fc3ee4ed0be
Ground games barely matter, but this will probably be one extra point to Hillary.
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_57866c42e4b03fc3ee4ed0be
Ground games barely matter, but this will probably be one extra point to Hillary.
VendettaRed07
Member
Hillary herself already brings about as much stability and experience as you can ask for. To the point where it is actually seen as a negative.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Question, how off was the 2012 aggregate from the final result?
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
but she's a democrat
having someone who is extremely respected and who was the command of NATO (the thing Trump wants to get rid of), could be and I think would be a huge opportunity to get the vote of people who view the military as being an important thing to think about when voting.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Good call. We should get a respected veteran like John Kerry.
Yeah, but Kerry wasn't Supreme God Lord Allied Commander
brianmcdoogle
Member
I like the veterans who don't get wounded in battle.
There's an indication, based on 2008 Obama, that a strong ground game is very important in battleground states
http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/content/73/5/1023.full.pdf+html
Well if that's true this is a dumb poll.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
But the Dean Scream was enough to destroy a campaign while in present time Marco Suave Rubio can't even win his home state because an orangutan is louder and more racist.
THERE ARE NO RULES. YOUR GOD HAS ABANDONED YOU.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Popular vote underestimated Obama by 3 points.
Mainly because every pollster made the absolutely ludicrous assumption that black turnout was going to crater to historic lows.
My favorite was Suffolk announcing they would stop polling Virginia and Florida because Romney had them locked down. Yeah, how did that one work out, dipshits.
State polls:
AZ - Aggregate had Romney up 7.5, Romney won by 9.1 (+1.6 D bias)
CO - Aggregate had Obama up by 1.5, Obama won by 5.4 (+3.9 R bias)
FL - Aggregate had Romney up by 1.5, Obama won by .9 (+2.4 R bias)
IA - Aggregate had Obama up by 2.4, Obama won by 5.8 (+3.4 R bias)
MI - Aggregate had Obama up by 4, Obama won by 9.5 (+5.5 R bias)
MN - Aggregate had Obama up by 5.2, Obama won by 7.7 (+2.5 R bias)
MO - Aggregate had Romney up by 10.2, Romney won by 9.4 (+.8 R bias)
NH - Aggregate had Obama up by 2, Obama own by 5.6 (+3.6 R bias)
NC - Aggregate had Romney up by 3, Romney won by 2 (+1.0 R bias)
NV - Aggregate had Obama up by 2.8, Obama won by 6.7 (+3.9 R bias)
OH - Aggregate had Obama up by 2.9, Obama won by 3 (+.1 R bias)
OR - Aggregate had Obama up by 6, Obama won by 12 (+6.0 R bias)
PA - Aggregate had Obama up by 3.8, Obama won by 5.4 (+1.6 R bias)
VA - Aggregate had Obama up by .3, Obama won by 3.9 (+3.6 R bias)
WI - Aggregate had Obama up by 4.2, Obama won by 6.9 (+2.7 R bias)
So basically pollsters were pretty much on the mark in Ohio and blew it everywhere else.
IggyChooChoo
Member
While I think you are overstating the degree to which Clinton "needs" Warren, I do agree that Warren would be more helpful even than people realize. I think the prospect of defining ourselves as the party of competent women and defining the GOP as the party of old, irrational white backlash has the potential to pay huge dividends down the road. Women are the majority EVERYWHERE. The politics are somewhat like a less consequential but broader version of the Civil Rights Act. The GOP could potentially respond by digging themselves into a disastrous rut that's very hard to get out of, once begun. If they want a smaller piece of the pie, and to alienate the bigger, growing piece, by all means let them.
Honestly the more I read about this guy the more I think I like him. He's for the Iran deal, for opening up Cuba, is more about smart power than hard or soft, and generally seems to be a guy more concerned with peace than war--he's certainly gotten enough awards saying as much. There's a TED talk he did that I'll listen to when I get home, but just off some google searches I feel like if there was ever a safe option for VP he's it.
Not that he's going to be the pick mind you. It just seems like they're trolling Trump. "Oh, oh you want to pick a general? Well then we'll pick the Supreme Allied Commander NATO Europe. So fuck you and your sissy general."
??? He's got an OPed from last year defending it. Did something change?
I do agree with this. This could be the moment when the gender gap is solidified. At the same time, I can understand her campaign's hesitance to pick a woman for VP. Still a lot of misogyny in this country they need to navigate and they may not want to make it harder than they have to.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Q's Florida bullshit is not going unnoticed.
http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/7/13/short-note-on-q-poll.html?SSScrollPosition=0
http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/7/13/short-note-on-q-poll.html?SSScrollPosition=0
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