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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

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If ya'll have a chance to help make sure an older person gets to the polls this November? DO IT.

My neighbor turns 94 tomorrow. She marched with Dr. King. Her and her family escaped Alabama and the KKK in the middle of the night. Her grandmother was born a slave. She's voted in EVERY SINGLE ELECTION since she was eligible.

I had her over for lunch/dinner for her birthday. She's amazing. The stories she has are just insane. She's lived and seen more things than I could ever imagine. She's lived to see a black man as President and, Lord willing, she's going to see a woman elected too.

It's just...amazing.

I wish I could meet your neighbor. I also wish that my mother could meet your neighbor. My mom worked in Mississippi back in the 60s to register black voters. She had to hide from the Klan as well. She and my father transported older voters in 2008, and they told me about an old black woman who made sure she was walking to the booth to vote for Obama.

It's slow, it's incremental, but we're moving towards the light.
 
It also would be unique in 2016 for a Senate candidate to outrun their presidential candidate by more than a few points, especially one as meh as Portman against someone who is generally seen as an equal candidate.
 

sphagnum

Banned
So bigoted racists. Why are we giving them such a clean PC term then?

It's the term they called themselves to demonstrate that they are different from movement conservatism, and for whatever reason it's stuck.

Technically it's not correct to conflate alt-right with Neo-Nazis because "alt right" covers basically anything that's right wing but hates the modern GOP - Neo-Nazis, libertarians, monarchists (yes really), Dark Enlightenment types, literally any group that considers itself "redpilled".
 

Maledict

Member
Just an FYI that ad buys in June tend not to be very helpful because the effects of negative advertisements are usually short-lived.

Um, 2012 says exactly the opposite, as does 2004. Getting out early to define your opponent with negativity has been a key part of modern races. Obama moved his entire fall funding forward to the summer and outspent Romney by ridiculous amounts in battleground states hammering the message of Bain and everything that went with it.

Whilst an individual negative line might not stick around that long, a negative campaign that defines your opponent before the convention has incredible sticking power and has shown itself to be absolutely key in two recent elections.
 

Diablos

Member
Wtf at the upcoming Gawker/Wikileaks/whatever leak regarding Clinton emails/docs that were classified. Time to legit Diablos?
 
I wish I could meet your neighbor. I also wish that my mother could meet your neighbor. My mom worked in Mississippi back in the 60s to register black voters. She had to hide from the Klan as well. She and my father transported older voters in 2008, and they told me about an old black woman who made sure she was walking to the booth to vote for Obama.

It's slow, it's incremental, but we're moving towards the light.

She's an awesome woman. And so is your mom for doing that work. We took my neighbor to vote..well, ever year since we've lived here. She absolutely will not vote early. Period. She is going in that both on election day, and that's the end of it. No one can tell her otherwise.

It's so...humbling, I guess, to talk with her. My dad was born a year before she was. He would have turned 95 in October. While he came from a poor family, his experience in voting and everything was just so different from hers. They voted for the same people, for similar reasons, but her struggle is just....so much deeper than anything he or I could ever have experienced.

Scariest thing that my dad ever told me was when he worked at a steel mill. It was, for all purposes, integrated but still very separate. My dad would eat lunch with this guy every single day who just so happened to be African American. The white people just thought it was terrible. They'd say shit to my dad all the time. He told them to go screw themselves. The guy actually stayed with my dad and his first wife for a few months while he saved moeny to move his family up from Mississippi (Or Alabama, I don't remember). My dad and his first wife got a letter threatening them. Just insanity. I do NOT understand people. Who cares what color, race, religion, sexuality or gender identity. Who has time to worry about that? I got shit to do.
 

Kusagari

Member
Did you guys see Bondi's response to that Cooper interview the other day?

“There’s a time and place for everything, but yesterday wasn’t the time nor the place in front of a hospital when we could have been helping victims,” Bondi said of the interview, which took place in front of an Orlando medical center. She told WOR’s Len Berman and Todd Schnitt in the Morning radio show that instead of helping the victims with his position as “the champion for the LGBT community,” Cooper chose to “encourage anger and hate” by confronting her.

Good to know Cooper is encouraging anger and hate for questioning you pushing homophobic policies your entire career.
 
Um, 2012 says exactly the opposite, as does 2004. Getting out early to define your opponent with negativity has been a key part of modern races. Obama moved his entire fall funding forward to the summer and outspent Romney by ridiculous amounts in battleground states hammering the message of Bain and everything that went with it.

Whilst an individual negative line might not stick around that long, a negative campaign that defines your opponent before the convention has incredible sticking power and has shown itself to be absolutely key in two recent elections.

You're talking about two fundamentally different things -- a negative line of attack versus a negative advertisement. The effects of negative advertisements aren't really that huge, and are short-lived.

Once the general election rolls around and the candidates already have voters' attention, the evidence is sketchier (and lots of journalists before me have tried to dissect this question) ... but it appears that campaigns are spending a lot of money on a short-term effect on a small group of voters.

When studying the outcomes of the 2012 presidential election, Sides and UCLA political science professor Lynn Vavreck found that while ads had a measurable effect on voter attitudes, that effect was small and remarkably short-lived — it disappeared within a week.

In another often-cited 2010 study, Bowdoin's Michael Franz and Washington State University's Travis Ridout found that advertising had meaningful effects on voting in the 2008 election, but they also found that you need a lot of ads (and a lot more than your opponent) for a little gain.

"Having a 1,000-ad advantage across the entire campaign, for instance, resulted in about a 0.5 percentage point improvement in a candidate's share of the vote in 2008," they wrote.

Also, TV ads just aren't as effective as they used to be. Ask Jeb! Bush.
 
It also would be unique in 2016 for a Senate candidate to outrun their presidential candidate by more than a few points, especially one as meh as Portman against someone who is generally seen as an equal candidate.

I don't think Strickland is that strong. That's my whole argument. Regardless of the economic realities nationally, Ohio was definitely hurt hard economically under his watch. His comments on making a ton of money as a lobbyist is damaging. IF Portman sufficiently defines him early, with Strickland doing little to stem the flow IS worrisome.

Kasich is relatively popular here. If Kasich comes out strongly for Portman (which will happen), I can see Portman being able to put enough daylight between him and Trump.
 
I don't think Strickland is that strong. That's my whole argument. Regardless of the economic realities nationally, Ohio was definitely hurt hard economically under his watch. His comments on making a ton of money as a lobbyist is damaging. IF Portman sufficiently defines him early, with Strickland doing little to stem the flow IS worrisome.

Kasich is relatively popular here. If Kasich comes out strongly for Portman (which will happen), I can see Portman being able to put enough daylight between him and Trump.

That's why I said that he's equal to Portman, who I described as a meh candidate. I don't think either is a strong candidate, and you're overselling the effects/longevity of negative advertising that aren't really reflective in the (admittedly few) polls of the race that we've gotten so far.
 
You're talking about two fundamentally different things -- a negative line of attack versus a negative advertisement. The effects of negative advertisements aren't really that huge, and are short-lived.



Also, TV ads just aren't as effective as they used to be. Ask Jeb! Bush.

I'm not even arguing a specific ad, though. I'm arguing a narrative that Portman seems to be doing a decent job of crafting.

There are currently PAC ads attacking Strickland from multiple angles, not including the extremely well done positive ads for him.

In the last two/three hours, there was the ad attacking Strickland for being a lobbyist. There was an attack ad about the economy under Strickland's watch. There was a pro-Portman ad about his work on the heroin epidemic (which is a huge issue in my area). Earlier, there was the Strickland "No one will protect the NRA as much as me" ad, that's being run from the left (probably by a pro-right wing group, no doubt).

There has been a total of one negative Portman ad, and I can't even remember what it was.

We've also had no contact, locally at least, from the Strickland people. Obviously, it's early days, but we've had less than nothing from them. I've signed up directly from his website, and I got one email thanking me and nothing since then.

He's also a 74 year old, former governor who only managed one term. He's not as strong as people think, and, I think, even weaker than I was anticipating.

Like I said, I could be wrong. Unless he's keeping everything dry, he needs to step it up a bit. Portman is well organized, well funded and not universally hated.
 
What is Alt-Right and why do I keep seeing people say it?

A big unifying trait for them is being racist/sexist/etc. to show that anti-racism is stupid. Vox had a good article on the subject, tracing their origins to paleocons like Pat Buchanan, white supremacists like Steve Sailer, and 4Chan:
http://www.vox.com/2016/4/18/11434098/alt-right-explained

I doubt a massive Trump loss is going to make them go away, particularly if we lock up the Supreme Court for a generation.

Edit: I see this has been answered multiple times with this very article.
 
Also, during the primary, Strickland's campaign wasn't uber responsive to the volunteer either. Granted, he knew he'd get the nod, but Sittenfeld's people were on point. Granted, it was a money starved campaign, but meh.

Edit: As I typed this, I just saw my first pro-Strickland ad. Obama must be having the FBI monitor my internet and report directly to the DSCC. :p
 

Farmboy

Member
Just an FYI that ad buys in June tend not to be very helpful because the effects of negative advertisements are usually short-lived.

It's always hard to say what exactly cost a losing candidate the election, but the Priorities USA Action ads of June 2012 are widely credited for being very helpful in defining Romney as an out-of-touch Plutocrat early on. Especially the one about him having workers build a podium that he used to announce their termination.
 

User1608

Banned
Trump makes my very soul shake with hate and disgust. What an awful piece of trash.
If there is one thing I know, I'm way better than Trump and his dipshit supporters. Goddamn it has to be draining to be so full of hate.

We will be okay, but the battle against racists will continue for years to come. Just how it is sadly, a dark part of humanity.
 
I'm not even arguing a specific ad, though. I'm arguing a narrative that Portman seems to be doing a decent job of crafting.

There are currently PAC ads attacking Strickland from multiple angles, not including the extremely well done positive ads for him.

In the last two/three hours, there was the ad attacking Strickland for being a lobbyist. There was an attack ad about the economy under Strickland's watch. There was a pro-Portman ad about his work on the heroin epidemic (which is a huge issue in my area). Earlier, there was the Strickland "No one will protect the NRA as much as me" ad, that's being run from the left (probably by a pro-right wing group, no doubt).

There has been a total of one negative Portman ad, and I can't even remember what it was.

We've also had no contact, locally at least, from the Strickland people. Obviously, it's early days, but we've had less than nothing from them. I've signed up directly from his website, and I got one email thanking me and nothing since then.

He's also a 74 year old, former governor who only managed one term. He's not as strong as people think, and, I think, even weaker than I was anticipating.

Like I said, I could be wrong. Unless he's keeping everything dry, he needs to step it up a bit. Portman is well organized, well funded and not universally hated.

1) RE: Narrative. I don't really love Diablosing over personal inference of how certain negative advertisements are framing the debate without actual data to support said worries. What supports the idea that this is a narrative that is working? Certainly not the polls. If that changes, then yes, clearly Portman's ad buy is working. As of now? You're worrying based on your own interpretation of the ad buy.

2) I've given to Strickland a month ago and have gotten an email from him every two days, including two today.

yRh0WVo.png


3) On the idea of Portman "not being universally hated", that's sort of true, but he's not universally loved, either. And it's not like Kasich is beloved, either.

Part of the problem for Kasich is that voters feel he's neglecting his duties as Governor. Only 31% think he's paying enough attention to his current job, compared to 49% who think the Presidential bid has caused him to pay insufficient attention to his Gubernatorial duties. Perhaps because of that Kasich's approval rating has dropped from a 54/36 spread in early March down now to a 46/40 spread.

I don't think Strickland is a slam-dunk, awesome candidate. I also don't think Portman is a great candidate. I don't see any evidence -- yet -- that what you're witnessing as a narrative building is effectively changing the race, which has been neck-and-neck pretty much since their primary.

It's always hard to say what exactly cost a losing candidate the election, but the Priorities USA Action ads of June 2012 are widely credited for being very helpful in defining Romney as an out-of-touch Plutocrat early on. Especially the one about him having workers build a podium that he used to announce their termination.

I was mainly talking about the effectiveness of ads themselves removed from their ability to create an effective definition for another candidate, something there's little-to-no evidence of in this race. If the attempt here was to do an ad buy to sink Strickland, it's not working, and the effects of the ads they've spent money on now will matter little in a month if it's not creating a useful narrative.
 

Prepared for Job as President: Trump 30%, Hillary 59%

Shows Good Judgment: Trump 25%, Hillary 43%


Holy shit. Like, all his numbers look bad (some look bad for Hillary too) but holy shit at those two.

This is not just partisan divide.

edit: Down 19 among women...LOLOLOL

4% Black for Trump.

Hillary is also crushing it with college educated whites, white women, and moderate voters.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Prepared for Job as President: Trump 30%, Hillary 59%

Shows Good Judgment: Trump 25%, Hillary 43%


Holy shit. Like, all his numbers look bad (some look bad for Hillary too) but holy shit at those two.

This is not just partisan divide.

People hate Hillary for some reason. I have no idea why.
 
She's an awesome woman. And so is your mom for doing that work. We took my neighbor to vote..well, ever year since we've lived here. She absolutely will not vote early. Period. She is going in that both on election day, and that's the end of it. No one can tell her otherwise.

It's so...humbling, I guess, to talk with her. My dad was born a year before she was. He would have turned 95 in October. While he came from a poor family, his experience in voting and everything was just so different from hers. They voted for the same people, for similar reasons, but her struggle is just....so much deeper than anything he or I could ever have experienced.

Scariest thing that my dad ever told me was when he worked at a steel mill. It was, for all purposes, integrated but still very separate. My dad would eat lunch with this guy every single day who just so happened to be African American. The white people just thought it was terrible. They'd say shit to my dad all the time. He told them to go screw themselves. The guy actually stayed with my dad and his first wife for a few months while he saved moeny to move his family up from Mississippi (Or Alabama, I don't remember). My dad and his first wife got a letter threatening them. Just insanity. I do NOT understand people. Who cares what color, race, religion, sexuality or gender identity. Who has time to worry about that? I got shit to do.

Your dad was an awesome man, Adam.
 
Prepared for Job as President: Trump 30%, Hillary 59%

Shows Good Judgment: Trump 25%, Hillary 43%


Holy shit. Like, all his numbers look bad (some look bad for Hillary too) but holy shit at those two.

This is not just partisan divide.

Unfairly or not, she really is a pretty weak candidate that got very lucky running against Trump.
 
1) RE: Narrative. I don't really love Diablosing over personal inference of how certain negative advertisements are framing the debate without actual data to support said worries. What supports the idea that this is a narrative that is working? Certainly not the polls. If that changes, then yes, clearly Portman's ad buy is working. As of now? You're worrying based on your own interpretation of the ad buy.

2) I've given to Strickland a month ago and have gotten an email from him every two days, including two today.

yRh0WVo.png


3) On the idea of Portman "not being universally hated", that's sort of true, but he's not universally loved, either. And it's not like Kasich is beloved, either.



I don't think Strickland is a slam-dunk, awesome candidate. I also don't think Portman is a great candidate. I don't see any evidence -- yet -- that what you're witnessing as a narrative building is effectively changing the race, which has been neck-and-neck pretty much since their primary.

Like I said, that was my sense of the race based on my observations and, you know, what I'm seeing here. I could totally be wrong.

I'm not talking about the fundraising emails. I'm talking about requests to volunteer and stuff. Like I said, it's still early, but I only got one during the primary. None since then. I've emailed the campaign, but I haven't heard anything. My account is flooded with the other ones, though. I know we didn't get anything from the campaign when we asked for it during the primary. I haven't been super involved in the last few weeks/month, so maybe things have changed. (I'm having to be careful to avoid my ex's mom...mess.) We're a redder part of the state, so maybe we're just not high on the list of priorities for them.

I just am not convinced that Strickland is strong enough to unseat an incumbent senator who's not a foaming at the mouth Tea Party radical. (even though Portman's kinda shitty). So far, it looks like the line of attack is going to be based on his support for trade deals. Hopefully that works.

I'm basically just lamenting the fact that we didn't have someone better than Strickland to run.
 
A majority of Sanders voters - 57 percent - don't think the process for selecting the Democratic nominee this year was fair, though six in 10 will nevertheless support Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in November. Just 8 percent will vote for Donald Trump.

Come on, 40% of Bernie supporters :/

Obama at 53% approval.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Also, during the primary, Strickland's campaign wasn't uber responsive to the volunteer either. Granted, he knew he'd get the nod, but Sittenfeld's people were on point. Granted, it was a money starved campaign, but meh.

Edit: As I typed this, I just saw my first pro-Strickland ad. Obama must be having the FBI monitor my internet and report directly to the DSCC. :p

Why else do you think I post on Poli-GAF?

Duh.

:D
 
McGinty is terrible too. Good thing is that no one likes Toomey whatsoever

McGinty is a much worse recruit than Strickland was.

Like I said, that was my sense of the race based on my observations and, you know, what I'm seeing here. I could totally be wrong.

I'm not talking about the fundraising emails. I'm talking about requests to volunteer and stuff. Like I said, it's still early, but I only got one during the primary. None since then. I've emailed the campaign, but I haven't heard anything. My account is flooded with the other ones, though. I know we didn't get anything from the campaign when we asked for it during the primary. I haven't been super involved in the last few weeks/month, so maybe things have changed. (I'm having to be careful to avoid my ex's mom...mess.) We're a redder part of the state, so maybe we're just not high on the list of priorities for them.

I just am not convinced that Strickland is strong enough to unseat an incumbent senator who's not a foaming at the mouth Tea Party radical. (even though Portman's kinda shitty). So far, it looks like the line of attack is going to be based on his support for trade deals. Hopefully that works.

I'm basically just lamenting the fact that we didn't have someone better than Strickland to run.

That's fair, I just get sort of triggered when people make declarative, Diablos-esque statements of loss to what essentially is shown as a close race, that's all. I get why, and I get why you'd be nervous. I don't live in Ohio, so I have little context. I'm just going off what I see polling-wise.

It's possible that they just haven't done an ad buy in a very Red media market. Ohio shares some media markets with West Virginia and Indiana.
 
Also, there has been movement towards Portman.

PPPs March Numbers:

Strickland 41
Portman 40

PPPs April Numbers:

Strickland 38
Portman 38

PPPs June Numbers:

Strickland 42
Portman 46
 

Farmboy

Member
If there is one thing I know, I'm way better than Trump and his dipshit supporters. Goddamn it has to be draining to be so full of hate.

We will be okay, but the battle against racists will continue for years to come. Just how it is sadly, a dark part of humanity.

Absolutely. If it's truly upwards of 30% of the American people, as polling suggests, then that's a major problem that needs to be addressed even if they never win an election, even if Hillary buries Trump in a landslide this November (and she should; that is a very important first step).

Mind you, I have no idea how to reach these people. But if it really is 30% then "LOL racists" won't cut it. Although, just to illustrate how hard I think this will be, hoping it's mostly old people who will die out isn't looking too bad as a strategy.

But, not to take away their agency and responsibility: I'm absolutely convinced that these people having their mind poisoned daily by Fox News and talk radio is a huge factor.
 

kirblar

Member
She's an awesome woman. And so is your mom for doing that work. We took my neighbor to vote..well, ever year since we've lived here. She absolutely will not vote early. Period. She is going in that both on election day, and that's the end of it. No one can tell her otherwise.

It's so...humbling, I guess, to talk with her. My dad was born a year before she was. He would have turned 95 in October. While he came from a poor family, his experience in voting and everything was just so different from hers. They voted for the same people, for similar reasons, but her struggle is just....so much deeper than anything he or I could ever have experienced.

Scariest thing that my dad ever told me was when he worked at a steel mill. It was, for all purposes, integrated but still very separate. My dad would eat lunch with this guy every single day who just so happened to be African American. The white people just thought it was terrible. They'd say shit to my dad all the time. He told them to go screw themselves. The guy actually stayed with my dad and his first wife for a few months while he saved moeny to move his family up from Mississippi (Or Alabama, I don't remember). My dad and his first wife got a letter threatening them. Just insanity. I do NOT understand people. Who cares what color, race, religion, sexuality or gender identity. Who has time to worry about that? I got shit to do.
Because for many people, life is all about perceived social status, and they need to have someone below them.

It's the Animal Farm problem- many of the animals wanted equality. But some just wanted to be the farmers.
 
McGinty is a much worse recruit than Strickland was.



That's fair, I just get sort of triggered when people make declarative, Diablos-esque statements of loss to what essentially is shown as a close race, that's all. I get why, and I get why you'd be nervous. I don't live in Ohio, so I have little context. I'm just going off what I see polling-wise.

It's possible that they just haven't done an ad buy in a very Red media market. Ohio shares some media markets with West Virginia and Indiana.

I'm in this weird position where TECHNICALLY, I'm in a red county...but I'm in the Cleveland and Columbus media markets. (I actually get both ABC/NBC and CBS affiliates...)

Also, I'm not sure we know how strong Portman is since he won in 2010, you know? I feel like that may have inflated my sense of his strength.
 

Vahagn

Member
People hate Hillary for some reason. I have no idea why.


This will be the case for every dem candidate moving forward. Partisan media has replaced actual media so anyone and everyone will be despised once the partisan media focuses like a laser for months or years on end.

Obama has something like a 10% approval rating among Republicans despite the world being like a million times better off than when he was inaugurated. We're done with objectivity and rationality.

FFS - The right wing echo chamber convinced those folks to hate the Pope. No one is safe.
 
Also, there has been movement towards Portman.

PPPs March Numbers:

Strickland 41
Portman 40

PPPs April Numbers:

Strickland 38
Portman 38

PPPs June Numbers:

Strickland 42
Portman 46

Counterpoint: the aggregate kinda disagrees.

It's been a Portman + 2 race since February with little polling.

I'm in this weird position where TECHNICALLY, I'm in a red county...but I'm in the Cleveland and Columbus media markets. (I actually get both ABC/NBC and CBS affiliates...)

Also, I'm not sure we know how strong Portman is since he won in 2010, you know? I feel like that may have inflated my sense of his strength.

Yeah, Portman's generally had meh favorables. Going to try to find the latest. Kinda man that PPP didn't ask for them.
 
Counterpoint: the aggregate kinda disagrees.

It's been a Portman + 2 race since February with little polling.



Yeah, Portman's generally had meh favorables. Going to try to find the latest. Kinda man that PPP didn't ask for them.

Neither will win by much, whoever it is.

I just wish Sittenfeld had a bit more experience, because I feel like he could have been a better candidate than Strickland.

Plus he's hot, which never hurts.
 
happy to see no one is debating my point that kennedy is a top ten president ;)

The greatest think Kennedy ever did was get shot. Second greatest was picking LBJ as VP.

1.) Lincoln
2.) Washington
3.) FDR
4.) LBJ
5.) Obama
6.) Truman
7.) Dwight
8.) Grant
9.) George H.W. Bush
10.) Teddy
 
The fact that she's finishing the primaries close to her 2008 while Mr. Political Revolution finishes over 4 million behind proves this to be false.

I mean, Trump winning the Republican nomination doesn't mean he's a great candidate either! I don't think it's fair that she is judged poorly on trust, and I think that's largely to do with a right-wing perception of her as a person that was warped by the Bernie campaign. But that's sort of where we are now. Maybe it'll get better.

Either way, the poll shows there's tons of room for her to grow with 18-29 year olds, which is great.
 
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