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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

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First, cut the condescension. If I wanted to be harangued, I'd call my ex-girlfriend.

Second, the withdrawal of United States troops is in fact what left Iraq vulnerable, and it was ISIS' campaign in Iraq which made them internationally famous, not Syria. We had been hearing about terrorist elements in Syria for years, now, but nobody took them seriously. The Syrian ambassador once spoke on CNN about how Assad's harsh reaction might have been a bit of an overreaction, but it was because the regime had serious concerns about terrorism in Syria and especially in the East. He was laughed at.

No, nobody knew who ISIS was until they stormed the western frontier of Iraq and took miles of land every day. Maliki (conspicuously) orders his troops to abandon Mosul (because fuck the Sunnis, right?), left all their American gifts behind, and ISIS stormed through and crucified people on the highway to signal their victory. They took oil fields. Then they got within a stone's throw of Baghdad and everyone flipped their shit. Then James Foley... etc.

All of this broke the news after the insurgency in Iraq happened, not before. I don't know why that is (world stability and terrorism should be on the front news every fucking day), but my guess is that the news of a destabilizing Iraq is more interesting than a destabilizing Syria because it adds an element to our long history with that country. In any case, if we're specifically talking about a) the coordination of attacks abroad against western countries and b) the inspiration of lone-wolf attacks when it is unfeasible to sanctioned terrorist attacks then both of those become much easier when you're on the front news every single day. I've never heard of anyone being inspired in the US by al Shebab in Africa or the Uighurs in China, or whatever the hell those muslim rebels are called in the southern Philippines. And this kind of power and wealth was possible because of their invasion of Iraq.

FURTHERMORE: they only could have invaded Iraq if there was no residual force left in Iraq from the US occupation and there was a breeding ground just across the river... which was only possible because of Syria. Double mistake on Obama's part! He should have either let Syria fall apart but keep a significant peacekeeping force in Iraq to make sure the gains were not lost, or he should have done whatever was necessary to enable a stabilizing presence in Syria, whatever form that might take. Russian influence, an Arab peacekeeping force, UN security forces, US boots on the ground, or substantial support for the Assad regime; any of the above would have been preferential to the shitshow we let happen on our watch.

Third, McCain has been for leaving a residual force in Iraq since his presidential campaign in 2008 because he actually visited Baghdad and knew what he was talking about. I don't care if Bush had a withdrawal date. Bush was wrong about practically everything in his presidency.

Right, because we haven't had shootings or other acts of terror before ISIS stormed into Iraq. Fort Hood and Boston were an aberration? What about the failed attempts? The Times Square attempt in 2009, the underwear bomber attempt on the plane going to Detroit? How was ISIS involved there and how could some extra thousands of troops in Iraq stopped them?
 

teiresias

Member
+12 again.

Oh yes!

E4KHKj8.gif
 
Unusual that RV and LV screens create better numbers for a Dem.

while generally speaking, RV usually help Dems because poor people don't vote often enough, higher educated people are also more likely to vote and Trump is getting killed by people with a college education.

The difference between college educated people who voted for Romney and what Trump is polling at is quite large.
 
Right, because we haven't had shootings or other acts of terror before ISIS stormed into Iraq. Fort Hood and Boston were an aberration? What about the failed attempts? The Times Square attempt in 2009, the underwear bomber attempt on the plane going to Detroit? How was ISIS involved there and how could some extra thousands of troops in Iraq stopped them?

McCain is wrong if you view this attack as having anything to do with ISIS. I don't think it does and most people have pointed out how incoherent the viewpoint is.
.
 

Valhelm

contribute something
How come Trump's "told ya so" comments backfired so miserably? Until now, he's done better by making these outrageous comments.

Is it because there's no other Republican opposition?
 
No, nobody knew who ISIS was until they stormed the western frontier of Iraq and took miles of land every day.

They grew out of "Al Qaeda in Iraq" and splintered off. All consequences of George W. Bush's illegal invasion of Iraq on false pretenses, and his removal of Saddam Hussein from power.

Fucked us for generations, he did. Left us in an unwinnable quagmire, destabilized the whole region, and created thousands of jihadists who already hated the USA but who hate us way, way more now.
 
http://mcfeely.areavoices.com/2016/06/15/another-winner-because-of-burgums-victory-heidi-heitkamp/

FARGO — Doug Burgum, of course, is the biggest winner of Tuesday’s primary election in North Dakota. By beating Wayne Stenehjem, he’s all but guaranteed himself a spot as the state’s next governor.

Bob Harms, who worked as Burgum’s campaign adviser, is a close second. The former chairman of the North Dakota Republican Party and longtime counsel to former Gov. Ed Schafer and U.S. Sen. John Hoeven had been all but banished by the insiders club that GOP politics in North Dakota have become. Now Harms looks like a junior (and probably less evil version of) Karl Rove, orchestrating a massive upset with a brilliant and very well-funded campaign. Harms is a player again and he might just be ready to extract some revenge on some of the good old boys.

But how about throwing a Democrat into the mix of big winners?

How about talking about U.S. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp?

It wasn’t long ago that it seemed there was going to be a fight among Republicans to run against her in 2018. The reasons were many. She is a Democrat in a deeply red state. She barely won election in 2012 over Rick Berg, an unpopular and unlikable candidate who ran a horrible campaign. It was generally accepted Heitkamp was going to have a dogfight to keep her seat — if she even ran again.

The landscape looks much different today. Heitkamp might be in the catbird’s seat because of Burgum’s victory. It’s a domino effect. It seemed like the Republican machine had a deep bench from which to choose. Not so much anymore.

U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer? It’s rumored he badly wants Heitkamp’s Senate seat, but he is not wealthy and might not want to risk his comfortable House seat for a non-guaranteed election battle against Heitkamp. Plus, he’s tied his wagon to Donald Trump — and while that might not be devastating in North Dakota, it’s going to turn out to be a losing proposition. Trump, by all appearances, is going to crash and burn in this presidential campaign.

More at the link. It actually looks decent for her with very positive approval ratings and the probability of a weak challenger.
 

Hilbert

Deep into his 30th decade
How come Trump's "told ya so" comments backfired so miserably? Until now, he's done better by making these outrageous comments.

Is it because there's no other Republican opposition?

People have been saying for a long time, the GE race is much much different then the republican primary.
 

Wilsongt

Member
How come Trump's "told ya so" comments backfired so miserably? Until now, he's done better by making these outrageous comments.

Is it because there's no other Republican opposition?

You can only be so outrageous and egotistical before people begin finding you disgusting.

It's extremely ironic that congress was so up in arms that US firearms ended up in ISIS hands, yet they are adamant about not taking away the ability of someone on a terrorist watch list because of "constitutional right".
 
They grew out of "Al Qaeda in Iraq" and splintered off. All consequences of George W. Bush's illegal invasion of Iraq on false pretenses, and his removal of Saddam Hussein from power.

Fucked us for generations, he did. Left us in an unwinnable quagmire, destabilized the whole region, and created thousands of jihadists who already hated the USA but who hate us way, way more now.

He was just finishing what Bill Clinton started.

I know that's reductionist. Just having fun. I'm pro-Bill Clinton, anti-Bush. There are significant nuances to their approaches that differentiate them completely.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
How come Trump's "told ya so" comments backfired so miserably? Until now, he's done better by making these outrageous comments.

Is it because there's no other Republican opposition?

It's because he's now in a general election and the electorate is vastly different. He's not appealing to only racist nutjobs anymore.
 
https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/743571472845676544

@mmurraypolitics
The size of that Clinton campaign ad buy now stands at $17 million, per our ad-tracking sources, as more orders have come in

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/743571904250920960

@mmurraypolitics
And @Nate_Cohn -- it includes $1M in Columbus, OH alone. But still no DC or Miami.

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/743572800498188289

@mmurraypolitics
@wccubbison @Nate_Cohn No PA. But $1.5M in Charlotte NC

FYI -- this is over 2-3 weeks
 

Crayons

Banned
The shooter in Orlando was texting his wife while he was doing it. He was just texting her like nothing was happening.

I have no words.

she needs to be locked up and throw away the key. idgaf if she had domestic issues at home, if your husband is gonna start a bloodbath it's your fucking duty to report that
 

kirblar

Member
Can someone explain to me why no ad buys in DC is important? Is it because it shares it with Northern Virginia?
It's because of NOVA. But NoVa's Clinton home turf anyway w/ a highly educated populace - spending money here would be dumb at this point.
 
2016 National House Race
Asked of 1,323 registered voters
Democrat 44%
Republican 33%

From the same Reuters poll.

The goal should be to make the blowout inevitable and causing GOP turnout to be lower than expected.
 
Democrats pick up 45 seats in the House this fall. Give me a stupid avatar for a month if I'm wrong. It's going to be a wave election and there will be a number of seats not on anyone's radar that won't break until very late.

I read some article (possibly posted here) arguing that House Dems wouldn't fully be able to capitalize even in a wave year due to poor recruitment, but I don't know enough to be able to assess that.

I can't get over this, though: "What did the three fingers signify? 'I have no idea,” she said.'"

Just incredible.
 
From the same Reuters poll.

The goal should be to make the blowout inevitable and causing GOP turnout to be lower than expected.

That's why I guess she's spending money now. Why win by 5 when you can destroy him every time he tries to stand up? Win by 12! Win by 15!

I read some article (possibly posted here) arguing that House Dems wouldn't fully be able to capitalize even in a wave year due to poor recruitment, but I don't know enough to be able to assess that.

I can't get over this, though: "What did the three fingers signify? 'I have no idea,” she said.'"

Just incredible.

Yeah, their DCCC's recruitment was piss poor until the very end. There's a lot of close seats they won't be able to take advantage of.
 
It's because of NOVA. But NoVa's Clinton home turf anyway w/ a highly educated populace - spending money here would be dumb at this point.

Thanks, I assumed it was because of Northern Virginia. I wonder if that's an expensive market or not.

I get Cleveland and Columbus locals. On the Cleveland stations, I've seen several Hillary ads today. All of them were the children one that she's been running.
 
That's why I guess she's spending money now. Why win by 5 when you can destroy him every time he tries to stand up? Win by 12! Win by 15!

well, it also helps downballot.

If somehow they can win the House and Senate together, even for just 2 years, shit can finally get done again.
 

kirblar

Member
Thanks, I assumed it was because of Northern Virginia. I wonder if that's an expensive market or not.

I get Cleveland and Columbus locals. On the Cleveland stations, I've seen several Hillary ads today. All of them were the children one that she's been running.
Pretty sure it's expensive.
 
Weaver essentially admitted concession, apparently.

He said Sanders is not nor will court superdelegates.

Sure, he didn't concede (Bernie has to do that, not him) but Weaver basically indicated that.

A. The DNC is moving towards the place they want

B. Bernie will support Hillary.


That is, if you read between the lines. Let's stop worrying about Bernie, folks. this may take a bit of time, but it's done.


Sahil Kapur ‏@sahilkapur 1h1 hour ago
On WADR, Jeff Weaver won't say if Sanders is still running to be nominee or flip superdelegates. Predicts a "unified party" post-convention.

Sahil Kapur ‏@sahilkapur 31s32 seconds ago
"We are not currently lobbying superdelegates," says Jeff Weaver, who doesn't expect that to happen anytime "soon."
 
You have to kill it, because the current problem with the system right now is that nothing happens. Political concerns make entitlement growth difficult to roll back, and presidents are doing the unilateral change thing anyway w/ executive orders without any pushback from congress. The executive office keeps growing in power due to the Senate being frozen, which increases the swing of a single election anyway.

Yeah, the filibuster is directly responsible for the rise of executive power and talk of the Supreme Court. It's simply not functional to require that 60 person majority. Might as well require a constitutional convention since both are frequently just as likely (close to zero). The Senate right now is just not a functioning body.
 
Nah bro, we gonna win. We played and beat them in a warm-up game before the tournament. We got a good chance of losing to Argentina next week.

Ya, but after Wales lost...I'm in a sad sports place. And the Cavs are going to lose. Mess. Sad.

"Sad Sports Place" Is a good nickname for Cleveland, tbh.
 

Valhelm

contribute something
11,000 people thought "yeah, Trump's really on point when it comes to Frank's nipples! I need to share this with my friends."

This was before Trump was a political figure. Nobody who retweeted that actually thought Barney Frank's nipples were too perky that day
 

Iolo

Member
I've posted this before but it's way more relevant after what happened.

oD4pTP8.png


Really standing up for the gay community.

Jesus Christ.

He seems to have a problem with the human body. The nipples there, the germophobia, the yelling at a lawyer trying to breastfeed.

edit: the menstruation comments, ...
 
Unusual that RV and LV screens create better numbers for a Dem.

I think a lot of the anti-Clinton folks are also anti-Trump, so she does better after you screen those people (who just plain aren't going to vote).

How come Trump's "told ya so" comments backfired so miserably? Until now, he's done better by making these outrageous comments.

Is it because there's no other Republican opposition?

Kind of, yeah. People respect a fighter when there's a fight, but Trump's won his fight, and the next one hasn't really started yet. Going in this hard with that brash attitude of his right now just looks deranged, for lack of a better word. He looks less like a fiery populist and more like a raving idiot.
 

Ophelion

Member
Can I just say as someone who has some significant interest and investment in the field of mental health how much it infuriates me when conservatives try to blame mass shootings on mental health in the most blasé way possible?

Like, Ok, yes, these people are quite possibly mentally unbalanced. What are you politicians going to do about that now that you've publicly admitted it? Are you going to fund more and better mental health programs so that more people can have access to the kind of care they need? Are we going to start mental health education initiatives so fewer Americans will view mental health programs with the kind of incredulity that I view new age medicine?

Oh, are you going to do exactly dick?

Ok, then maybe shut the fuck up, because we've identified a precipitating element to this utter travesty and we are prepared to actually do something about it.

The least they could do is accidentally help mentally unwell people in this country if they're going to use them as a scapegoat to cling to their precious guns. If they want to continue to treat it with all the sophistication and sensitivity of someone effectively going, "Have we looked into if the shooter was hexed by a witch yet? Has anyone thought of that?" Then they can fuck directly off. Mental health is not some black magic that only conveniently exists when you need something to blame murders on you are complicit with by virtue of your cowardly inaction. It's an ongoing, serious subject that many people struggle their entire lives with. Which, by the way, is helped not at all by a stigma in popular culture being formed around the idea that people with mental health disorders have the potential to spontaneously transform into psycho killers. Fuck you very much, Republicans.
 
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