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PoliGAF 2017 |OT2| Well, maybe McMaster isn't a traitor.

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I feel like I'm the only one warning about how Pelosi's sky high unpopularity will hurt Dems in 2018.

I don't see how; you win a House race by winning over that district, and general baggage against the incumbent's party, not by who might be Speaker if enough districts flip. Literally no one walks into a ballot box with this in mind, and I'd rather not put up a left-wing Ryan who's incompetent but really good looking on camera.
 
In other news, here in GA-06, it seems like the SuperPACs are trying to tie Ossoff to Pelosi lol.
Hopefully, that doesn't convince anybody lmao.
Pelosi isn't in charge anymore, I suspect these kinds of attacks have less bite now.

I don't see how; you win a House race by winning over that district, and general baggage against the incumbent's party, not by who might be Speaker if enough districts flip. Literally no one walks into a ballot box with this in mind, and I'd rather not put up a left-wing Ryan who's incompetent but really good looking on camera.
Rep._Tim_Ryan_Congressional_Head_Shot_2010.jpg


His name is even Ryan!

I feel like I'm the only one warning about how Pelosi's sky high unpopularity will hurt Dems in 2018.
I mean sure, it won't help, but Paul Ryan isn't sitting pretty right now either. I wouldn't be surprised if after two years of getting absolutely nothing done he posts similar job approval ratings.
 
I don't see how; you win a House race by winning over that district, and general baggage against the incumbent's party, not by who might be Speaker if enough districts flip. Literally no one walks into a ballot box with this in mind, and I'd rather not put up a left-wing Ryan who's incompetent but really good looking on camera.
Pelosi here would be part of the incumbent party's baggage in this scenario. Republicans view her as being part of the left wing of the party so saying "OSSOFF WILL HELP PELOSI'S LIBRUL AGENDA" is a tactic to spook off the nice suburban housewives that don't like Trump but do like ruining the lives of the poor.

That said, Pelosi is fine but at some point we need to not make all of our leadership be a bunch of old people. It's why I think think Ellison provides a good person to start involving in leadership, but according to some here that'd be bad because it'd be ceding power to people who like Sanders so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
Pelosi here would be part of the incumbent party's baggage in this scenario. Republicans view her as being part of the left wing of the party so saying "OSSOFF WILL HELP PELOSI'S LIBRUL AGENDA" is a tactic to spook off the nice suburban housewives that don't like Trump but do like ruining the lives of the poor.

That said, Pelosi is fine but at some point we need to not make all of our leadership be a bunch of old people. It's why I think think Ellison provides a good person to start involving in leadership, but according to some here that'd be bad because it'd be ceding power to people who like Sanders so ¯_(ツ)_/¯

Well... it is a problem when a move would benefit the Democratic version of the Tea Party, with all things being equal (if you're referring to the DNC chair...)

Still, I think Ellison is taking more of a leadership role within the party & no one has complained.
 

pigeon

Banned
Pelosi here would be part of the incumbent party's baggage in this scenario. Republicans view her as being part of the left wing of the party so saying "OSSOFF WILL HELP PELOSI'S LIBRUL AGENDA" is a tactic to spook off the nice suburban housewives that don't like Trump but do like ruining the lives of the poor.

That said, Pelosi is fine but at some point we need to not make all of our leadership be a bunch of old people. It's why I think think Ellison provides a good person to start involving in leadership, but according to some here that'd be bad because it'd be ceding power to people who like Sanders so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Anybody in PoliGAF who thinks that about Ellison is dumb. Also, Sanders is literally in the leadership now.

Also, I just learned today that Sanders is actually in charge of Democrate senate outreach, which is why he's doing all those town halls and things. It's not even implicit that that's his job, it's literally his job now.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
So Freedom Caucus members are already saying they don't want a revenue-neutral tax reform?

Good luck getting anything through at that point.
 
That said, Pelosi is fine but at some point we need to not make all of our leadership be a bunch of old people. It's why I think think Ellison provides a good person to start involving in leadership, but according to some here that'd be bad because it'd be ceding power to people who like Sanders so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Throwing shade at the oldz like Pelosi less than a week after bright, shiny Paul Ryan's healthcare reforms couldn't even pass the house is ... interesting. People may like outsiders but if there's anything we've seen over the last few years its that insiders like Biden and McConnell actually control the government.
 
Throwing shade at the oldz like Pelosi less than a week after bright, shiny Paul Ryan's healthcare reforms couldn't even pass the house is ... interesting. People may like outsiders but if there's anything we've seen over the last few years its that insiders like Biden and McConnell actually control the government.
I just said Pelosi is fine, but Pelosi can't be speaker forever and will eventually have to pass that mantle on to someone else. It'd probably be better to have someone ready to succeed her instead of it getting foisted on a dumbass like Ryan, right?
 

Wilsongt

Member
Trump White House: Where the L's are large and the leaks don't matter.

But during his Monday press briefing, Spicer suddenly struck a very different tone. He said he’s not concerned about the possibility that someone in the White House leaked to House Intelligence Committee chair Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA). Nunes, in a clumsy attempt to validate Trump’s discredited claim that Obama wiretapped him in October, announced Wednesday that he had learned Trump transition officials had been incidentally and legally surveilled. After holding a news conference on the subject, he headed to the White House to brief Trump personally.
 

Armaros

Member
I just said Pelosi is fine, but Pelosi can't be speaker forever and will eventually have to pass that mantle on to someone else. It'd probably be better to have someone ready to succeed her instead of it getting foisted on a dumbass like Ryan, right?

It would go down senority and people with actual clout and the ability to control a Democratic House. So whoever it is, will not be the person that replaces her in her district if it comes to that. Because they would be a junior congressman/woman with no experience or connections to control 200+ congressmen and women.
 

pigeon

Banned
It would go down senority and people with actual clout and the ability to control a Democratic House. So whoever it is, will not be the person that replaces her in her district if it comes to that. Because they would be a junior congressman/woman with no experience or connections to control 200+ congressmen and women.

I...don't think Bonen asserted anything else? Of course it wouldn't be whoever primaried Pelosi.

I think it's tactically unsound to come into PoliGAF and complain about "some people in PoliGAF," but aside from that error I don't think the post was wrong. Frankly, Dems need to find a way to be less hamstrung by the fact that they took a lot of votes in the 90s and 00s that look pretty terrible now.
 
So Freedom Caucus members are already saying they don't want a revenue-neutral tax reform?

Good luck getting anything through at that point.

I'll laugh if they successfully cut Social Security for old people to give the rich tax breaks.

youplayedyourself.gif
 
The key is that it must be deficit neutral to pass under reconciliation.

So the freedom caucus is in essence saying it must met 60 Senate votes to pass it might not even be allowed to be voted on in the senate.

It does not need to be deficit neutral to pass reconciliation. You can just cut taxes for 10 years without making up the revenue anywhere else.
 

pigeon

Banned
It does not need to be deficit neutral to pass reconciliation. You can just cut taxes for 10 years without making up the revenue anywhere else.

To be specific, the Byrd Rule requires that the bill not increase the deficit for any time period outside the budget window. Since the window is usually 10 years, that means the bill can't result in a net increase in deficit after 10 years, so temporary provisions that expire in 10 years are usually fine.
 
I just said Pelosi is fine, but Pelosi can't be speaker forever and will eventually have to pass that mantle on to someone else. It'd probably be better to have someone ready to succeed her instead of it getting foisted on a dumbass like Ryan, right?

All the justification you provide for Ellison is: 1. Not old and 2. Sanders people like him. Seems like a great set of criteria to get a dumbass in office to me. Especially since, outside of Obama, its the olds like Cheney, Reid, Pelosi and McConnell that have gotten anything done in Washington since 2000.
 

Armaros

Member
Like Obamacare, the GOP spent 8 years crying about the deficit. It's doing to be a hard sell just blowing it up like Bush for tax cuts without anything else.

Especially if it opens them up to primary fights with deficit hawks.
 

pigeon

Banned
All the justification you provide for Ellison is: 1. Not old and 2. Sanders people like him. Seems like a great set of criteria to get a dumbass in office to me. Especially since, outside of Obama, its the olds like Cheney, Reid, Pelosi and McConnell that have gotten anything done in Washington since 2000.

Ellison was endorsed by Chuck Schumer.
 
Like Obamacare, the GOP spent 8 years crying about the deficit. It's doing to be a hard sell just blowing it up like Bush for tax cuts without anything else.

Especially if it opens them up to primary fights with deficit hawks.
I don't think a large enough group of people in the GOP care about the deficit when a Republican is president.
 

Armaros

Member
I don't think a large enough group of people in the GOP care about the deficit when a Republican is president.

Never underestimate the fear of a Republican to be attacked from their right wing. Especially in this environment.

Healthcare would not have been first if they didnt care at least about the appearance of caring about the deficit. Just big Tax cuts would have been a much easier first victory.
 
The key is that it must be deficit neutral to pass under reconciliation.

So the freedom caucus is in essence saying it must met 60 Senate votes to pass it might not even be allowed to be voted on in the senate.

Is it that it must be deficit-neutral, or that if it isn't, it sunsets after ten years?

Edit: I see others have addressed this.
 
Trump now wants to put tax reform and infrastructure together, which won't work.

So like:

- No ACA repeal

- No tax reform

- No infrastructure plan

- Filibuster of Gorsuch

What if... nothing happens this term? (Though I do expect Gorsuch to get confirmed)
 
All the justification you provide for Ellison is: 1. Not old and 2. Sanders people like him. Seems like a great set of criteria to get a dumbass in office to me. Especially since, outside of Obama, its the olds like Cheney, Reid, Pelosi and McConnell that have gotten anything done in Washington since 2000.

The speaker shouldn't be some random up comer or you end up with Paul Ryan

It should be someone:

1. In a safe district. The safer the better. Pelosi used to laugh at how hated she was because there was no chance of her losing her election. Would Ellison be safe if he had to live with being the most hated Congressman in the country?
2. Someone with a lot of clout in Washington. Someone who can get everyone in their party to do what they want, when they want. They need to be deal makers. Pelosi has this in spades. Does Ellison?
3. Be able to fundraise. Ellison wanted to limit how much money the Democrats could raise, so I'm not confident in his ability to raise money. Pelosi raises the most money for the party of any member of Congress (mostly because she doesn't spend a dime to get re-elected)
 
Can't Brownback veto this?

Do they have a veto override cutoff? 25 is just shy of 2/3rds if that was the cutoff.

Pelosi here would be part of the incumbent party's baggage in this scenario. Republicans view her as being part of the left wing of the party so saying "OSSOFF WILL HELP PELOSI'S LIBRUL AGENDA" is a tactic to spook off the nice suburban housewives that don't like Trump but do like ruining the lives of the poor.

That said, Pelosi is fine but at some point we need to not make all of our leadership be a bunch of old people. It's why I think think Ellison provides a good person to start involving in leadership, but according to some here that'd be bad because it'd be ceding power to people who like Sanders so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I was specifically talking about 2018, where mostly no one cares about Pelosi. I mean, Ryan exists and that didn't seem to be a drag at all on GOP chances for years (and I'd argue it wouldn't be a drag in 2018 either; I doubt a majority of Americans know who the Speaker is, a smaller subset knows how they're selected, and an even smaller number gives a shit at all).

I...don't think Bonen asserted anything else? Of course it wouldn't be whoever primaried Pelosi.

I think it's tactically unsound to come into PoliGAF and complain about "some people in PoliGAF," but aside from that error I don't think the post was wrong. Frankly, Dems need to find a way to be less hamstrung by the fact that they took a lot of votes in the 90s and 00s that look pretty terrible now.

If you're in a party that's pushing for the direction that the country in general is moving, this is always a problem. In 15 years, we'll probably see campaigns to primary some newly elected Congresspeople, some of whom could even be Bernie picks. If the country moves, everyone gets left behind.

Quite frankly, I don't give a shit about the 90s since it's far enough to be a different political landscape. If you take gay rights, for example, this country was miles away from where it is today. It's pretty naïve to really care about someone's vague stance then.

It's why at the Presidential level I argue that we should be running pretty green candidates who don't have records that our side will be mad at, but also will have a good reason to not have a record ("I'm new" works, "I've been around for literally decades and never did anything of note" doesn't look as good).
 
Doesnt really matter if they don't have the votes to override Brownback's veto. Though I have to say it is a nice sign that republicans are now also voting for medicaid expansion

It does matter.

This puts a ton of political pressure on Brownback. He has to own this. If he Veto's, then it will be a stone around his neck when he tries to run for re-election in 2018. Dude's already got a popularity problem.
 
Trump now wants to put tax reform and infrastructure together, which won't work.

So like:

- No ACA repeal

- No tax reform

- No infrastructure plan

- Filibuster of Gorsuch

What if... nothing happens this term? (Though I do expect Gorsuch to get confirmed)
Then Trump loses in 2020.

I don't know if him getting his agenda through would be worse for him.

Either way, just hoping Dems gain build up gains in 2018 and 2020 to have a full trifecta.
 

Armaros

Member
I think some people new to politics have a weird idea of what it means to be Speaker. The Speakership is a down and dirty political job, as shown by ryan, if you don't have the clout and steely spine to dig into the political trenches, you end up a very ineffective Speaker.

It is the essence of the sausage making of laws that no one really wants to see, all put into one Office.
 

rjinaz

Member
Did you know there are actual people who actually believe the Earth is flat?

Did you just stumble on that flat earth/ Shaq thread?

We had 3 actual flat earthers show up. It was kind of amazing. Basically, the government is evil rhetoric the right wing media is flooding the masses with taken to the extreme.
 
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